A Hybrid ARIMA-GABP Model for Predicting Sea Surface Temperature

In order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of thermal and moisture comfort prediction of underwear, a new prediction model is designed by using principal component analysis method to reduce the dimension of related variables and eliminate the multi-collinearity relationship between variables, and then inputting the converted variables into genetic algorithm (GA) and BP neural network. In order to avoid the problems of slow convergence speed and easy falling into local minimum of Back Propagation (BP) neural network, this paper adopted GA to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and utilized MATLAB software to program, and established the prediction models of BP neural network and GA–BP neural network. To verify the superiority of the model, the predicted result of GA–BP, PCA–BP and BP are compared with GA–BP neural network. The results show that PCA could improve the accuracy and adaptability of GA–BP neural network for thermal and moisture comfort prediction. PCA–GA–BP model is obviously superior to GA–BP, PCA–BP, BP, SVM and K-means prediction models, which could accurately predict thermal and moisture comfort of underwear. The model has better accuracy prediction and simpler structure.

Aiming at the shortcomings of the low efficiency optimization algorithm and the tendency to fall into the local optimal solution in the existing shallow sea geoacoustic parameters inversion research, a shallow sea geoacoustic parameters inversion method based on the Back Propagation (BP) neural network model is proposed. First, the theoretical prediction value of the shallow sea sound pressure field is obtained through the Fast Field Method (FFM). Then the mapping relationship between the predicted sound pressure field and the geoacoustic parameters value to be inverted is established according to the BP neural network model. Finally, the measured sound pressure field data is brought into the neural network to obtain the inversion results. The experimental results show that, compared with the classic simulated annealing (Simulated Annealing, SA) algorithm, the BP neural network model converts the data matching process of the optimization algorithm into the construction of a relational model, avoiding multiple matching optimization processes for the inversion results, and the inversion results can be output directly, accurately, and efficiently. Under the premise of setting the same accuracy, the calculation time of the BP neural network model for the inversion result is shortened, and the number of iterations is reduced to 5% of the SA algorithm.

In this paper, the effectiveness of the genetic algorithm-based back propagation (GABP) neural network model and its application to the breakout prediction in the continuous casting process are investigated. The formation of the sticking-type breakouts and the prediction principle of thermocouple thermometry method are analysed firstly. Then the genetic algorithm-based back propagation neural network model is proposed by fusing genetic algorithm (GA), and error back propagation neural network to offset the demerits of one paradigm by the merits of another. Finally, the GABP neural network model is applied to the breakout prediction in the continuous casting process; and the feasibility of the model is verified by the testing result with the accuracy rate of 97.56% and the prediction rate of 100%.

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 1988-2013年基于BP神经网络的植被叶面积指数遥感定量反演 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201703290547 作者: 作者单位: 南京林业大学,南京林业大学,南京林业大学,南京林业大学,南京林业大学,南京林业大学 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0505505）；国家自然科学基金项目（31200534）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目；2014年江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生科研创新计划项目 Quantitative inversion of long sequential leaf area index using remote sensing based on BP neural network from 1988 to 2013 Author: Affiliation: Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing,Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration in Jiangsu Province,Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:叶面积指数（Leaf Area Index，LAI）高度综合了植被水平覆盖状况和垂直结构，以及枯枝落叶层厚薄和地下生物量多少，是植被影响土壤侵蚀的主要方面。区域尺度的时间序列叶面积指数揭示了区域土壤侵蚀的演化过程。因此，及时准确地掌握区域尺度上长时间序列的植被LAI，对研究土壤侵蚀动态变化与植被的关系至关重要。选择南京市1988-2013年10期遥感影像，基于反向传播（Back Propagation，BP）神经网络构建LAI反演模型，进行了长时间序列的叶面积指数反演。结合2009和2010年LAI实测值，验证与探讨了该模型的评价精度与适应性。结果表明：（1）该模型拟合度较高，2009和2010年平均相对误差、均方根误差、相关系数分别是0.2395和0.2174，0.2962和0.2581，0.7713和0.6844，各项精度评价指标均较好；（2）统计分析去除耕地后全市LAI变化，低植被覆盖（LAI<2）面积不断增加，高植被覆盖区（LAI>3）面积先减少后增加，耕地面积不断减少，符合南京市的发展变化规律；（3）主城区LAI年际变化与其他学者得到的南京市植被盖度变化趋势一致，反演结果的时序性较高。本文提出的基于反向传播神经网络模型反演长时间序列LAI是可行的，为区域尺度土壤侵蚀定量遥感监测提供新途径。 Abstract:Leaf Area Index(LAI) can reflect the horizontal coverage, vertical structure of vegetation, the thickness of the litter layer and the amount of underground biomass, which is the main aspect of vegetation affecting soil erosion. It is very important to monitor the changes in the amount of soil erosion, for useful information to guide the planning of soil and water conservation, protect the soil and water resources and control the soil erosion. Therefore, the method by which we obtain high quality and long sequential LAI at a regional scale is very important for analyzing the relationship between the dynamic changes in soil erosion and vegetation. Previous studies showed that the neural network had an incomparable superiority in terms of complex, nonlinear data fitting and pattern recognition, and had been successfully applied to inverse the LAI in Nanjing based on the multi-spectral remote sensing data derived from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager(OLI), four types of vegetation indices(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI; Ratio Vegetation Index, RVI; Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index, SAVI; Modified Soil adjusted Vegetation Index, MSAVI), and measured LAI data. The results showed that the accuracy of retrieval was good. In this paper, we used the Back Propagation(BP) neural network model to inverse the LAI in Nanjing during 1988-2013 based on the data derived from Landsat 8 OLI and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper(TM). Based on the measured values of LAI in 2009 and 2010, the evaluation accuracy and adaptability of the model were verified and discussed. The results showed that:(1) The model had a fitting of higher degree, and average relative errors(MAPE), root mean square errors(RMSE), and correlation coefficients(R) in 2009 and 2010 of 0.2395 and 0.2174, 0.2962 and 0.2581, and 0.7713 and 0.6844, respectively. Each accuracy evaluation index was good.(2) Following statistical analysis, we found that the low vegetation coverage area(LAI < 2) exhibited an increasing trend, the high vegetation coverage area(LAI > 3) presented a first decreasing and then increasing trend, while the cultivated land area decreased with the rapid development in Nanjing.(3) To analyze accurately the LAI, we extracted the LAI in the main urban area, and found that there was a relatively high inversion value, and the inter-annual change in LAI was consistent with the change in vegetation coverage in Nanjing reported by other studies. Therefore, we could see that the BP neural network model had a high accuracy for the time series LAI inversion. It provides a new way for quantitative remote sensing monitoring of regional soil erosion. Moreover, because of other potential limiting factors, such as the errors produced by the BP neural network model, the large area of the inversion area, the complexity of vegetation types and community structure, etc., the inversion accuracy of LAI through remote sensing still needs to be explored, and the inversion method improved. We will try to establish a multi-angle LAI inversion method to construct the coupling model of LAI and soil erosion or quantitative fusion of multi-source remote sensing images in the future study. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

HighlightsWe propose five spraying parameters according to the characteristics of pig carcasses in the spray-chilling process.A prediction model for pig carcass weight loss, based on a genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network, is proposed to reveal the relationship between weight loss and spraying parameters.To study the effects of various spraying parameters on weight loss, an automatic spray-chilling device was designed, which can modify up to five spraying parameters.Abstract. Because the weight loss of a pig carcass in the spray-chilling process is easily affected by the spraying frequency and duration, a prediction model for weight loss based on a genetic algorithm (GA) back-propagation (BP) neural network is proposed in this article. With three-way crossbred pig carcasses selected as the test materials, the duration and time interval of high-frequency spraying, the duration and time interval of low-frequency spraying, and the duration of a single spray were selected as inputs to the network model. The weight and threshold of the network were then optimized by the GA. The prediction model for pig carcass weight loss established by the GA BP neural network yielded a correlation coefficient of R = 0.99747 between the network output value of the test samples and the target value. Weight loss prediction by the model is feasible and allows better expression of the nonlinear relationship between weight loss and the main controlling factors. The results can be a reference for chilled meat production. Keywords: BP neural network, Genetic algorithm, Pig carcass, Predictive model, Weight loss

Improving the resilience of enterprise safety production is one of the important ways to deal with the frequency of safety accidents. Based on the definition of enterprise safety production resilience, we fully consider the impacts of recovery resilience, self-organizing resilience, and learning resilience as the three dimensions of enterprise safety production resilience. We build a back propagation (BP) neural network model that analyzes the main factors of enterprise safety production resilience using the results of gray relational analysis as an input that can assess the resilience of enterprise safety production and provide a valuable reference for the improvement of an enterprise’s safety production level. The results show that the resilience of production safety obviously increased after the Chinese enterprises with low resilience (as predicted by the model) adopted the corresponding early warning methods. The gray relational degree analysis method can incorporate well the variables for the establishment of the BP neural network prediction model.

To study drivers’ driving behaviour in dilemma zones at signalized intersections, dilemma zones at signalized intersections are taken as the research objects. Based on analyzing the driving characteristics of motor vehicles. And collect the driving behavior parameters of video observations and road parameters of field observations, take these parameters as the factors which influence the drivers’ decision, conduct the significance analysis with SPSS(Statistical Product Service Solutions) for significant influencing factors, and then take these factors as the input value of BP(Back Propagation) neural network model, BP neural network model is set up and tested based on TensorFlow in Python. The prediction model of drivers’ decision-making in dilemma zone of signalized intersections under different speed limits is obtained, the research shows that the lower the speed limit, the better the accuracy of the intersection prediction. Further verified by comparison with the prediction model of drivers’ decision-making based on binary logistic, the accuracy of different prediction models is analyzed based on actual driver decisions.

In view of emerging applications of alpha+beta titanium alloys in aerospace and defense, we have aimed to develop a Back propagation neural network (BPNN) model capable of predicting the properties of these alloys as functions of alloy composition and/or thermomechanical processing parameters. The optimized BPNN model architecture was based on the sigmoid transfer function and has one hidden layer with ten nodes. The BPNN model showed excellent predictability of five properties: Tensile strength (r: 0.96), yield strength (r: 0.93), beta transus (r: 0.96), specific heat capacity (r: 1.00) and density (r: 0.99). The developed BPNN model was in agreement with the experimental data in demonstrating the individual effects of alloying elements in modulating the above properties. This model can serve as the platform for the design and development of new alpha+beta titanium alloys in order to attain desired strength, density and specific heat capacity.

Quantitative analysis of fatty acid value during rice storage based on olfactory visualization sensor technology

Evaluation index system for carbon information disclosure quality in China's electric power sector based on a mutual information and back propagation neural network model

A reasonable inflating strategy must be developed for filling an onboard hydrogen storage tank with hydrogen gas. The inflow hydrogen temperature has always been a constant value in filling cases. However, in our opinion, the optimal inflow hydrogen temperature is not supposed to be a fixed value but a value that constantly changes and adjusts with filling time, i.e., the inflow hydrogen temperature is a function of the filling time. How to determine this functional relationship is a critical problem to be addressed. Herein, an approach is introduced. A dual-zone model is presented to research the thermal effect during the process of charging hydrogen storage tanks. Based on the numerical results of the dual-zone model, the charging process was divided into three stages, allowing us to obtain data for 1331 filling cases. Then, a back propagation (BP) neural network model was built to analyze the data, and the implicit relationship between the inflow hydrogen temperatures and maximum hydrogen temperature pressure could be deduced. With this implicit relationship, the critical values of the inflow hydrogen temperatures can be obtained from the critical situation. Suppose the inflow hydrogen temperatures in a practical case are higher than the critical values. In that case, the highest hydrogen temperature in the tank will exceed the limited safety value of 358 K. In contrast, if the inflow hydrogen temperatures are lower than the critical values, then more energy will be needed to precool the inlet hydrogen temperature. Thus, theoretically, the critical inflow hydrogen temperatures should be at their optimal values.

Mining-induced ground fissures are the main type of geological disasters found on the Loess Plateau, China, and cause great impacts on the soil properties around ground fissures. However, little research has been conducted on the quantitative relationship between ground fissures and changes in soil properties. To address this, 40 ground fissures in the Yungang mining area, Datong City, Shanxi Province, China, were investigated, and changes in soil properties (soil organic matter, soil moisture, field capacity, bulk density, soil porosity, and grain compositions) were revealed by the difference in soil properties between the edge and contrast points around ground fissures. Redundancy analyses were used to illustrate the relationships between the value (Si_DV) and percentage (Si_DP) of the difference in soil properties between the edge and contrast points, as well as the ground fissures. The characteristics of ground fissures that had a significant correlation according to Pearson correlation analysis with Si_DP were selected and analyzed via multivariate linear fitting model, random forest model, and Back Propagation (BP) neural network model, respectively. Results show that soil organic matter, soil moisture content, bulk density, field capacity, and the content of clay at the edge points were significantly less than those at the contrast points; conversely, soil porosity at the edge points was significantly greater. The average percentage of the difference between the edge points and contrast points of ground fissures in these six properties was 15.27%, while soil moisture content showed the greatest change (20.65%). The Si_DP was significantly correlated with the width, slope, and vegetation coverage of ground fissures; however, the vegetation coverage was the determining factor. BP neural network model had the greatest performance in revealing the relationships between ground fissures and changes in soil properties. The model for soil organic matter had the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.89), and all others were above 0.5. This research provides insights into the quantitative relationship between ground fissures and their impacts on soil physical properties, which can be used in conjunction with remote sensing images to rapidly assess soil erosion risks caused by mining on a large scale, given that soil physical properties are closely related to topsoil stability.

Based on statistical data from 2005 to 2019, we used the back propagation (BP) neural network model to predict the production amount of plastic waste in Chengdu. In addition to the amount of waste produced we wanted to achieve an understanding of its composition and environmental impacts. Compositions of plastic waste were analyzed by sampling. Particulate matter in the air and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from plastic waste incineration, bisphenol A (BPA) from plastic waste landfills, were also evaluated. Results indicated that (a) economic development, urban construction level, and residents’ consumption were pusitively correlated to different degrees to plastic waste production; (b) the production of plastic waste in Chengdu in 2025 and 2030 will reach 865.3 and 931 kilotons (Kt), respectively; (c) high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) are the two main components of plastic waste in Chengdu and accounted for 40.17% and 24.96%, respectively; (d) different degrees of environmental impacts occurred during plastic waste incineration and landfill (taking 2019 as an example, the incineration of plastic waste in Chengdu produced between 2874.82 and 4711.73 tons of inhalable particulate matter (PM) and emitted between 725.4 and 867.4 Kt of CO2, and between 65.02 and 910.27 kg of bisphenol A (BPA) leached from sanitary landfills); (e) positive policies and measures from the beginning to the end-of-life of plastics should be carried out in the future, which would improve the level of plastic waste management in Chengdu and mitigate the side-impacts from plastic waste treatment and disposal. Implications: The implications of this article are Generation trends of plastic waste were revealed by a BP neural network model, which provided essential data for authorities to make decisions on waste management. Influencing factors affecting plastic waste generation were analyzed, which will strongly support policy considerations regarding plastic waste control. This investigation first explored and reported the compositions of plastic waste mixed with municipal solid waste (MSW), which yielded valuable information concerning plastic waste and details concerning the impacts of plastic waste disposal processes. Those results of this investigation, being published here for the first time, will guide plastic waste management in Chengdu and could also provide useful information to other cities regarding that issue.

Soil nutrient prediction has been eliciting increasing attention in agricultural production. Backpropagation (BP) neural networks have demonstrated remarkable ability in many prediction scenarios. However, directly utilizing BP neural networks in soil nutrient prediction may not yield promising results due to the random assignment of initial weights and thresholds and the tendency to fall into local extreme points. In this study, a BP neural network model optimized by an improved genetic algorithm (IGA) was proposed to predict soil nutrient time series with high accuracy. First, the crossover and mutation operations of the genetic algorithm (GA) were improved. Next, the IGA was used to optimize the BP model. The symmetric nature of the model lies in its feedforward and feedback connections, i.e., the same weights must be used for the forward and backward passes. An empirical evaluation was performed using annual soil nutrient data from China. Soil pH, total nitrogen, organic matter, fast-acting potassium, and effective phosphorus were selected as evaluation indicators. The prediction results of the IGA–BP, GA–BP, and BP neural network models were compared and analyzed. For the IGA–BP prediction model, the coefficient of determination for soil pH was 0.8, while those for total nitrogen, organic matter, fast-acting potassium, and effective phosphorus were all greater than 0.98, exhibiting a strong generalization ability. The root-mean-square errors of the IGA–BP prediction models were reduced to 50% of the BP models. The results indicated that the IGA–BP method can accurately predict soil nutrient content for future time series.

Inadequate market segmentation and clustering problems could cause an enterprise to either miss a strategic marketing opportunity or not cash-in on a tactical campaign. The need for in-depth knowledge of customer segments and the need to overcome the limitations of using linear techniques to analyse non-linear problems requires a re-assessment of generally used approaches. The objectives of the research are (1) to consider the use of self-organising (SOM) neural networks for segmenting customer markets and (2) to analyse the predictive ability of backpropagation (BP) neural networks for classifying new customers by using the output provided by SOM neural networks. The nature and scope of neural networks are considered and the conceptual differences between Cluster Analysis and SOM neural networks as well as BP neural networks and multiple linear regression (MLR) static filter model are highlighted. The findings of the SOM neural network modelling indicate four natural clusters. In addition, the predictive ability of the BP neural network model was superior to that of MLR. Additional knowledge was also extracted from the BP neural network model by analysing the relationship between the input variables and each segment by means of input-output analysis. Sensitivity analysis was also used to identify important variables for each segment. Input-output analysis is also used to compile broad profiles of differences between the segments. The BP neural network model developed for this application is also suitable for deployment (i.e. classification of “new” customers) with a high level of confidence.