A Hybrid Framework for Modeling Construction Operations Using Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics

For complex systems that embed automation, but also rely on human interaction for guidance and contingency management, holistic models are needed that provide for an understanding of the individual human and computer elements, and address the critical interactions of such complex systems. Discrete event simulation (DES) models and system dynamics (SD) models are two different approaches that can be used to address these requirements. Both modelling approaches can support the designers of future autonomous vehicle (AV) systems by simulating the impact of alternate designs on vehicle, operator, and system performance. However, the DES modelling approach is likely best suited for using probabilistic distributions to accurately model an operator who is a serial processor of discrete tasks, as well as an environment with randomly occurring events. The SD modelling approach is better suited for modelling continuous performance feedback that is temporally dependent and is affected by qualitative variables such as trust.

This paper provides an empirical study on the comparison of model building in Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) and System Dynamics (SD). Verbal Protocol Analysis (VPA) is used to study the model building process of ten expert modellers (5 SD and 5 DES). Participants are asked to build a simulation model based on a prison population case study and to think aloud while modelling. The generated verbal protocols are divided into 7 modelling topics: problem structuring, conceptual modelling, data inputs, model coding, validation & verification, results & experimentation and implementation and then analyzed. Our results suggest that all modellers switch between modelling topics, however DES modellers follow a more linear progression compared to SD modellers. DES modellers focus significantly more on model coding and verification & validation, whereas SD modellers on conceptual modelling. This quantitative analysis of the processes followed by expert modellers contributes towards the comparison of DES and SD modelling.

Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the mainstream in the area of construction simulation. Recently, research has shown the possibility of applying System Dynamics (SD) to the construction management discipline. Unlike DES, which is based on statistical analysis and queuing theory, SD is able to represent the complex system of construction management through capturing feedback effects, managerial actions, and soft variables such as schedule pressure and morale, which are important in determining project behavior. Though SD is capable of representing such variables and relationships, the validity of SD models has often been questioned because when modeling with SD, it is difficult to attain as much detail as when modeling with DES. Therefore, SD has not been fully adopted to simulations in the area of construction management, despite its advantages. To gain widespread use in the construction management area, SD needs to address operational details. In this paper, an SD based earthmoving process model is presented to explore ways in which operation details can be represented using SD. Initially, an SD based earthmoving model is proposed and for the purpose of comparison, and is tested against a DES counterpart model, created using STROBOSCOPE. The tests have shown that the simulation results generated by the SD model are as accurate and reliable as those of the STROBOSCOPE models. The specifics of this comparison are identified, including how the SD model is created from and compared to DES model at an operational level. These research findings support the widespread use of SD in the area of construction management; thus, aiding in the representation of the complexities inherent in construction.

Several different simulation techniques, such as discrete event simulation (DES), system dynamics (SD) and agent-based modelling (ABM), have been used to model complex construction systems such as construction processes and project management practices; however, these techniques do not take into account the subjective uncertainties that exist in many construction systems. Integrating fuzzy logic with simulation techniques enhances the capabilities of those simulation techniques, and the resultant fuzzy simulation models are then capable of handling subjective uncertainties in complex construction systems. The objectives of this chapter are to show how to integrate fuzzy logic and simulation techniques in construction modelling and to provide methodologies for the development of fuzzy simulation models in construction. In this chapter, an overview of simulation techniques that are used in construction is presented. Next, the advancements that have been made by integrating fuzzy logic and simulation techniques are introduced. Methodologies for developing fuzzy simulation models are then proposed. Finally, the process of selecting a suitable simulation technique for each particular aspect of construction modelling is discussed.

The last 10 years have witnessed a marked upsurge of attention on Hybrid Simulation (HS). The majority of authors define HS as a joint modelling approach which includes two or more simulation approaches (mainly Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent Based Simulation). Whilst some may argue that HS has been in existence for more than 5 decades, the recent rise tended to be more problem driven rather than technical experimentation. Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) 2015, 2016, 2017 have witnessed 3 panels on the purpose, history and definition of HS, respectively. This paper reports on a comprehensive review conducted by the panelists on HS and its applications. The aim of the paper is to move the debate forward by exploring potential platforms for developing concrete avenues for research on HS in conjunction with the modelling life cycle.

This paper presents the decision problem of selecting a collision-warning activation algorithm for Rear-End Collision Alert Signal (RECAS) systems installed in motorcycles and other powered two-wheelers. Using Agent-Based Modelling, Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics, we have developed a hybrid simulation model of three scenarios of rear-end collisions to measure the performance of several algorithms found in the literature. The best-performing algorithm, by Hirst & Graham, has reduced the probability of collisions on average by 31.21% in comparison with the baseline scenario of using a standard brake light. Using this algorithm also resulted in up to 11.20% reduction in the estimated severity of injuries when a rear-end collision was not averted. As the Hirst & Graham algorithm was the most effective in all the tested emergency braking scenarios and across all the tested speed limits, we recommend this algorithm to be used in RECAS systems in powered two-wheelers.

Background and Purpose: Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABS) is growing in many areas like, e.g., management, social and computer sciences. However, the similar trend does not seem to occur within the field of business process management (BPM), even though simulation approaches like discrete event simulation or system dynamics are well established and widely used. Thus, in our paper we investigate the advantages and disadvantages of agent-based modelling and simulation in the field of BPM in simulation experiments. Design/Methodology/Approach: In our research, we investigate if there is a necessity for ABS in the field of BPM with our own simulation experiments to compare traditional and ABS models. For this purpose, we use simulation framework MAREA, which is a simulation environment with integrated ERP system. Our model is a complex system of a trading company selling computer cables. For the verification of our model, we use automated process discovery techniques. Results: In our simulations, we investigated the impact of changes in resources’ behavior on the outcome of company’s order to cash process (O2C). Simulations experiments demonstrated that even small changes might have statistically significant effect on outcomes of the processes and decisions based on such outcomes. Simulation experiments also demonstrated that the impact of randomly distributed fluctuations of well-being have a diminishing tendency with the increasing number of sales representatives involved in the process. Conclusions: Our research revealed several advantages and disadvantages of using ABS in business process modelling. However, as we show, many of them were at least partially addressed in the recent years. Thus, we believe that ABS will get more attention in the field of BPM similarly to other fields like, e.g., social sciences. We suggested areas in BPM simulations, e.g., modelling of resources, be it human or technological resources, where there is a need for ABS.

According to Akkermans and Dellaert (2005), there are two distinct approaches to computer simulation for supply chain analysis: discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD). Both approaches have been used extensively, as reported in the literature (Jahangirian et al., 2010; Tako and Robinson, 2012). However, a number of authors have suggested the use of a hybrid DES/SD simulation for supply chain analysis (Lee et al., 2002; Pereira, 2009; Rabelo et al., 2005; Reiner, 2005; Venkateswaran and Son, 2005). Despite its potential, the literature on supply chain does not report many cases of application of hybrid DES/SD simulation. One limitation preventing its application is the lack of a clear framework to guide its application. Thus in this paper, it is proposed to include the supply chain operations reference model (Supply Chain Council, 2012) as part of the existing frameworks to improve guidelines for the application of hybrid DES/SD simulation.

The utilization of simulation modelling in supply chain management has proven to be a valuable tool for logistics service providers, enabling them to optimize their operations and meet customer demands efficiently. AnyLogic, with its diverse capabilities in discrete event simulation, system dynamics, and agent-based simulation, stands out as a powerful software solution for tackling complex supply chain challenges. This paper significantly contributes by demonstrating the practical implementation of AnyLogic in the modelling and simulation of agro-food product distribution network, particularly vegetable oils from the Cevital group. Additionally, the study integrates an optimization experiment to ascertain the optimal number of vehicles required to meet a specific customer demand while ensuring a high level of fleet utilization. The obtained results are very encouraging and demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our approach.

Fine-Grained Parallel and Distributed Spatial Stochastic Simulation of Biological Reactions

Construction accounts for a considerable number of environmental impacts, especially in countries with rapid urbanization. A predictive environmental assessment method enables a comparison of alternatives in construction operations to mitigate these environmental impacts. Process-based life cycle assessment (pLCA), which is the most widely applied environmental assessment method, requires lots of detailed process information to evaluate. However, a construction project usually operates in uncertain and dynamic project environments, and capturing such process information represents a critical challenge for pLCA. Discrete event simulation (DES) provides an opportunity to include uncertainty and capture the dynamic environments of construction operations. This study proposes a predictive assessment method that integrates DES and pLCA (DES-pLCA) to evaluate the environmental impact of on-site construction operations and supply chains. The DES feeds pLCA with process information that considers the uncertain and dynamic environments of construction, while pLCA guides the comprehensive procedure of environmental assessment. A DES-pLCA prototype was developed and implemented in a case study of an 18-storey building in Northeast China. The results showed that the biggest impact variations on the global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication (EP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP), abiotic depletion potential (ADP), and human toxicity potential (HTP) were 5.1%, 4.1%, 4.1%, 4.7%, 0.3%, and 5.9%, respectively, due to uncertain and dynamic factors. Based on the proposed method, an average impact reduction can be achieved for these six indictors of 2.5%, 21.7%, 8.2%, 4.8%, 32.5%, and 0.9%, respectively. The method also revealed that the material wastage rate of formwork installation was the most crucial managing factor that influences global warming performance. The method can support contractors in the development and management of environmentally friendly construction operations that consider the effects of uncertainty and dynamics.

Construction systems and projects comprise complex combinations of subsystems, processes, operations, and activities. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) has been used extensively for modeling construction systems, addressing system complexity, and analyzing system behavior. However, while DES is a powerful tool for capturing operations as they occur in reality, DES does have difficulty modeling context and its mutual effects on the operational components of a system. System Dynamics (SD), on the other hand, captures feedback loops that are derived from the context level of a system and that can anticipate system behavior; nevertheless, SD cannot effectively model the operational parts of a system. Hybrid SD and DES modeling provide a set of tools that use the capabilities, while improving upon the disadvantages, of these two approaches. Although initial efforts to develop hybrid SD-DES modeling dates back to the late 1990s, in the construction industry, there are relatively few studies in this area, and there is still no robust architecture for hybrid system developers. This paper addresses these issues by proposing a comprehensive hybrid simulation architecture based on the High Level Architecture (HLA) infrastructure, which can be used by hybrid simulation developers in the construction industry. A typical steel fabrication shop has been modeled based on the proposed architecture, and it has been compared with the ideally developed hybrid simulation architecture.

This paper aims to introduce a facility operation modeling and simulation mainly based on a discrete event system modeling scheme. Facilities have become so much complex that its operational status cannot be estimated by simple calculations. A facility can consist of a lot of unit process and a lot of transportation between consecutive processes, which may be modelled as a time driven system or an event driven system. However, the transportation between processes can usually be considered as a discrete event system and not a continuous system. Therefore, in macro-scale, a facility operation can be simulated on the basis of a discrete event system modeling if we do not consider how an individual process behaves. This study introduces the current status of the studies on an operation modeling and simulation regarding typical nuclear facilities along with some instances. Also, this paper provides insights about how a discrete event system can be applied to a nuclear facility. These kinds of modeling and simulation are very important because they can contribute to a facility design in terms of an optimal process and an equipment layout, a generic understanding for regulators, stakeholders and operators, a system diagnosis through by comparing measurement data with simulation results and furthermore it can contribute to an efficient operation scheduling.

Movement of entities in discrete event simulation typically requires predefined paths with decision points that dictate entity movement. Human-like travel is difficult to model correctly with these constraints because that is not how people move and large individual differences exist in capabilities and strategies. Agent based modeling is considered a better way to simulate the real-time interaction of people with their environment. In this paper we propose to integrate agent based modeling with discrete event simulation to simulate the movement of people in a discrete event system. An agent based module was constructed within the AutoMod simulation package, and a test case was modeled in which people (agents) at a theme-park interact with objects and people in their environment to get directions and then walk or take a tram to their final destination. We explain the details of model implementation and describe the verification and initial validation of the model.

This paper describes a multi-level system dynamics (SD) / discrete event simulation (DES) approach for assessing planning and scheduling problems within an aviation training continuum. The aviation training continuum is a complex system, consisting of multiple aviation schools interacting through interschool student and instructor flows that are affected by external triggers such as resource availability and the weather. SD was used to model the overall training continuum at a macro level to ascertain relationships between system entities. SD also assisted in developing a shared understanding of the training continuum, which involves constructing the definitions of the training requirements, resources and policy objectives. An end-to-end model of the continuum is easy to relate to, while dynamic visualisation of system behaviour provides a method for exploration of the model. DES was used for micro level exploration of an individual school within the training continuum to capture the physical aspects of the system including resource capacity requirements, bottlenecks and student waiting times. It was also used to model stochastic events such as weather and student availability. DES has the advantage of being able to represent system variability and accurately reflect the limitations imposed on a system by resource constraints. Through sharing results between the models, we demonstrate a multi-level approach to the analysis of the overall continuum. The SD model provides the school’s targeted demand to the DES model. The detailed DES model is able to assess schedules in the presence of resource constraints and variability and provide the expected capacity of a school to the high level SD model, subjected to constraints such as instructor availability or budgeted number of training systems. The SD model allows stakeholders to assess how policy and planning affect the continuum, both in the short and the long term. The development of this approach permits moving the analysis of the continuum between SD and DES models as appropriate for given system entities, scales and tasks. The resultant model outcomes are propagated between the continuum and the detailed DES model, iteratively generating an assessment of the entire set of plans and schedule across the continuum. Combining data and information between SD and DES models and techniques assures relevance to the stakeholder needs and effective problem scoping and scaling that can also evolve with dynamic architecture and policy requirements. An example case study shows the combined use of the two models and how they are used to evaluate a typical scenario where increased demand is placed on the training continuum. The multi-level approach provides a high level indication of training requirements to the model of the new training school, where the detailed model indicates the resources required to achieve those particular student levels.