A Note on Trade Under Regime Uncertainty

This article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of political uncertainty on party development and strategies of mobilization and competition. Defining uncertainty as the imprecision with which political actors are able to predict future interactions, the authors identify three types of political uncertainty: regime uncertainty, economic uncertainty, and institutional uncertainty. They argue that political uncertainty is particularly high among developing democracies, contributing to puzzling empirical patterns of party development and competition in these contexts. Taking into account the role of uncertainty in the strategic decision making of party elites will help scholars better understand the differences between parties in advanced and developing democracies. But it can also help scholars understand the less dramatic differences between parties even within advanced democracies. The authors’ theoretical framework can be applied broadly since uncertainty informs the strategic choices of a much wider range of political actors.

Opposition Parties and Regime Uncertainty in Pakistan

Can passive monetary policy decrease the debt burden?

Pricing of Discount Bonds with a Markov Switching Regime

Predicting the probability of dynamic component failure in aircraft is of interest to both civilian and military operators for safe and cost-effective component retirement. While aircraft OEM assumed usage spectra have been used throughout the years for fatigue forecasting and for creation of part replacement timelines, advancements in aircraft regime recognition and instrumentation have made it possible to track the portion of consumed useful life in lifelimited components based on actual usage. This paper introduces a novel approach to condition based maintenance (CBM) that is designed to be used in conjunction with a probabilistic regime recognition scheme. The proposed methodology results in a probability distribution of incurred damage for specified life-limited components on an individual aircraft basis, with applications to fleet-wide probabilistic damage spectrum. The primary advantage of the proposed methodology is the rigorous treatment of regime uncertainty that is quantified in probabilistic regime recognition. A Gaussian probability density approximation is used to improve computational efficiency of the damage estimation method, and effects of the flight condition on the uncertainty in the damage estimation are investigated. Following a detailed explanation of the proposed methodology, results are provided by applying the algorithms to simulated data for the SH-60B and compared against a rule-based approach for individual aircraft damage tracking.

Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination

This chapter looks at the role of ignorance rather than incentive explanations (such as moral hazard) to explain the financial crisis in the United Kingdom. It uses empirical evidence to suggest that economic explanations should allow scope for the possibility of clusters of errors and explores the institutional factors that can create them. Specific attention is given to the concepts of regime uncertainty and big players, and how they accelerated the crisis. The epistemic function of prices is also discussed, as is the importance of calculation and recalculation during periods of financial turmoil. The chapter attempts to demonstrate that contemporary Austrian economics can provide important contributions to our understanding of business cycles—both in theory and in practice.