A Novel Algorithm for Cyber Security Analysis for Supply Chain Security

Cyber supply chain (CSC) systems provide operational efficiency and business continuity due to the integrated nature of various network system nodes. Such integration has made the overall system vulnerable to various cyber attacks and malware propagation is one of the common attacks for CSC. Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) provides an organization the capability to identify, gather, analyze threats and the associated risks so that CSC organization can forecast the existing and future threat trends and manage the cybersecurity risk in a proactive manner. A threat actor may attack the system and propagate a malware. The purpose is to manipulate, alter, or change delivery mechanisms. It is imperative to integrate CTI into the existing cybersecurity practice to detect and understand the threat actor's intents and motive. In our previous paper, we used threat analysis gathering to provide us an understanding of the adversaries' capabilities, actions, and intents. This paper contributes to improving the cybersecurity of CSC by using CTI. In particular, we extend our previous work which identifies and analysis CSC attacks and adopts CTI approach to understand the attack trends so that appropriate control can determine proactively. We use the malware a smart grid case study as CSC context to demonstrate our approach. The result demonstrations how CTI approach is applied to assist in preventing cyberattacks and to disseminate threat information sharing.

Undernutrition among children under the age of five is a major public health concern, especially in developing countries. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict undernutrition and identify its associated factors. Secondary data analysis of the 2017 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) was performed using R and Python. The main outcomes of interest were undernutrition (stunting: height-for-age (HAZ) < -2 SD; wasting: weight-for-height (WHZ) < -2 SD; and underweight: weight-for-age (WAZ) < -2 SD). Seven ML algorithms were trained and tested: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic model, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The ML models were evaluated using the accuracy, confusion matrix, and area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristics (ROC). In total, 8564 children were included in the final analysis. The average age of the children was 926 days, and the majority were females. The weighted prevalence rates of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 17%, 7%, and 12%, respectively. The accuracies of all the ML models for wasting were (LDA: 84%; Logistic: 95%; SVM: 92%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 84%, XGBoost: 98%), stunting (LDA: 86%; Logistic: 86%; SVM: 98%; RF: 88%; LASSO: 86%; Ridge: 86%, XGBoost: 98%), and for underweight were (LDA: 90%; Logistic: 92%; SVM: 98%; RF: 89%; LASSO: 92%; Ridge: 88%, XGBoost: 98%). The AUC values of the wasting models were (LDA: 99%; Logistic: 100%; SVM: 72%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 99%; Ridge: 59%, XGBoost: 100%), for stunting were (LDA: 89%; Logistic: 90%; SVM: 100%; RF: 92%; LASSO: 90%; Ridge: 89%, XGBoost: 100%), and for underweight were (LDA: 95%; Logistic: 96%; SVM: 100%; RF: 94%; LASSO: 96%; Ridge: 82%, XGBoost: 82%). Age, weight, length/height, sex, region of residence and ethnicity were important predictors of wasting, stunting and underweight. The XGBoost model was the best model for predicting wasting, stunting, and underweight. The findings showed that different ML algorithms could be useful for predicting undernutrition and identifying important predictors for targeted interventions among children under five years in Ghana.

Recent catastrophic events and risks which have disrupted economies and supply chains around the world create new avenues/agendas for supply chain risks and security. Researcher and practitioner are showing increasing research interest on this area. This research has an effort to identified key factors and relation in supply chain risks and security and development of research framework. Given the increasing awareness of this important topic, the purpose of this research is to study supply chain critical risks important for supply chain security perspective and to investigate the relationship between supply chain vulnerability and supply chain risk. Interpretive structural modelling (ISM) has emerged as a means to analyse the relational aspects of the variables. The objective of this paper is to identify critical enablers of supply chain security management and to establish and analyse relationships among these enables using interpretive structural modelling. This research is continuing in this direction.

This study presents a comparative analysis of the classification performance of facial and emotion recognition systems using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The primary objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of emotion recognition in fields such as psychotherapy and crime analysis, using the FER-2013 dataset.The study was conducted with ML algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting, as well as the DL algorithm, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Supported by the application of feature selection, preprocessing, and feature extraction techniques, the model’s performance was measured using standard metrics such as accuracy, precision, F1-score, and AUC-ROC.The experimental results showed that the highest classification accuracy (46.61%) was achieved with the CNN model. While the ML models generally offered lower accuracy, they provided advantages in terms of computational efficiency in specific scenarios.This study aims to contribute to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of ML and DL algorithms and by highlighting the effect of data preprocessing on performance. The findings set targets for future work, such as real-time system integration and hybrid model development.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

Slope stability prediction using integrated metaheuristic and machine learning approaches: A comparative study

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is advancing through the incorporation of machine learning and mathematical modeling methods, improving decision-making effectiveness. The aim of this study is to improve the supply chain functions through four algorithms: Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Reinforcement Learning (RL). A result of the forecasting experimental data shows that LSTM achieved 94.3% accuracy forecast which exceeds SVM’s 87.8%. GA provides 23% improvement in savings with respect to conventional optimization techniques and RL brings a 15% increase in delivery efficiency through real-time decision making. Comparison of these techniques with existing methods reveals the greater efficiency of hybrid models that combine information from AI with more traditional means. In addition, the research evaluates how blockchain and digital twin technologies improve transparency, and security in supply chains. Despite these issues, the results show that supply chain efficiency can be markedly improved using AI powered decision making. As future studies, combined optimization frameworks and supply chain management ways that focus on sustainability should be investigated to have robust and environmentally friendly supply chains. By arguing that smart supply chain decision needs to be based on empirically validated theoretical assumptions, this research sheds important light on how scholars and industry experts can try to improve supply chain performance through smart decision making.

Gesture recognition is a topic in computer science and language technology that aims to interpret human gestures with computer programs and many different algorithms. It can be seen as the way computers can understand human body language. Today, the main interaction tools between computers and humans are still the keyboard and mouse. Gesture recognition can be used as a tool for communication with the machine and interaction without any mechanical device such as a keyboard or mouse. In this paper, we present the results of a comparison of eight different machine learning (ML) classifiers in the task of human hand gesture recognition and classification to explore how to efficiently implement one or more tested ML algorithms on an 8-bit AVR microcontroller for on-line human gesture recognition with the intention to gesturally control the mobile robot. The 8-bit AVR microcontrollers are still widely used in the industry, but due to their lack of computational power and limited memory, it is a challenging task to efficiently implement ML algorithms on them for on-line classification. Gestures were recorded by using inertial sensors, gyroscopes, and accelerometers placed at the wrist and index finger. One thousand and eight hundred (1800) hand gestures were recorded and labelled. Six important features were defined for the identification of nine different hand gestures using eight different machine learning classifiers: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forests (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Support Vector Machine (SVM) with linear kernel, Naïve Bayes classifier (NB), K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), and Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). All tested algorithms were ranged according to Precision, Recall, and F1-score (abb.: P-R-F1). The best algorithms were SVM (P-R-F1: 0.9865, 0.9861, and 0.0863), and RF (P-R-F1: 0.9863, 0.9861, and 0.0862), but their main disadvantage is their unusability for on-line implementations in 8-bit AVR microcontrollers, as proven in the paper. The next best algorithms have had only slightly poorer performance than SVM and RF: KNN (P-R-F1: 0.9835, 0.9833, and 0.9834) and LR (P-R-F1: 0.9810, 0.9810, and 0.9810). Regarding the implementation on 8-bit microcontrollers, KNN has proven to be inadequate, like SVM and RF. However, the analysis for LR has proved that this classifier could be efficiently implemented on targeted microcontrollers. Having in mind its high F1-score (comparable to SVM, RF, and KNN), this leads to the conclusion that the LR is the most suitable classifier among tested for on-line applications in resource-constrained environments, such as embedded devices based on 8-bit AVR microcontrollers, due to its lower computational complexity in comparison with other tested algorithms.

In the era of artificial intelligence, machine learning methods are successfully used in various fields. Machine learning has attracted extensive attention from investors in the financial market, especially in stock price prediction. However, one argument for the machine learning methods used in stock price prediction is that they are black-box models which are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we focus on the future stock price prediction with the historical stock price by machine learning and deep learning methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Bayesian classifier (BC), decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM), the embedded CNN, and the embedded BiLSTM. Firstly, we manually design several financial time series where the future price correlates with the historical stock prices in pre-designed modes, namely the curve-shape-feature (CSF) and the non-curve-shape-feature (NCSF) modes. In the CSF mode, the future prices can be extracted from the curve shapes of the historical stock prices. Conversely, in the NCSF mode, they can’t. Secondly, we apply various algorithms to those pre-designed and real financial time series. We find that the existing machine learning and deep learning algorithms fail in stock price prediction because in the real financial time series, less information of future prices is contained in the CSF mode, and perhaps more information is contained in the NCSF. Various machine learning and deep learning algorithms are good at handling the CSF in historical data, which are successfully applied in image recognition and natural language processing. However, they are inappropriate for stock price prediction on account of the NCSF. Therefore, accurate stock price prediction is the key to successful investment, and new machine learning algorithms handling the NCSF series are needed.&#x0D;

ObjectiveEnhanced technology in computer and internet has driven scale and quality of data to be improved in various areas including healthcare sectors. Machine Learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in efficiently analyzing those big data, but a general misunderstanding of ML algorithms still exists in applying them (e.g., ML techniques can settle a problem of small sample size, or deep learning is the ML algorithm). This paper reviewed the research of diagnosing mental illness using ML algorithm and suggests how ML techniques can be employed and worked in practice.MethodsResearches about mental illness diagnostic using ML techniques were carefully reviewed. Five traditional ML algorithms-Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest Neighborhood (KNN)-frequently used for mental health area researches were systematically organized and summarized.ResultsBased on literature review, it turned out that Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and K-Nearest Neighborhood (KNN) were frequently employed in mental health area, but many researchers did not clarify the reason for using their ML algorithm though every ML algorithm has its own advantages. In addition, there were several studies to apply ML algorithms without fully understanding the data characteristics.ConclusionResearchers using ML algorithms should be aware of the properties of their ML algorithms and the limitation of the results they obtained under restricted data conditions. This paper provides useful information of the properties and limitation of each ML algorithm in the practice of mental health.

An intrusion detection system (IDS) is an important protection instrument for detecting complex network attacks. Various machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) algorithms have been proposed for implementing anomaly-based IDS (AIDS). Our review of the AIDS literature identifies some issues in related work, including the randomness of the selected algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria, the application of old datasets, or shallow analyses and validation of the results. This paper comprehensively reviews previous studies on AIDS by using a set of criteria with different datasets and types of attacks to set benchmarking outcomes that can reveal the suitable AIDS algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria. Specifically, this paper applies 10 popular supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms for identifying effective and efficient ML-AIDS of networks and computers. These supervised ML algorithms include the artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms, whereas the unsupervised ML algorithms include the expectation-maximization (EM), k-means, and self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithms. Several models of these algorithms are introduced, and the turning and training parameters of each algorithm are examined to achieve an optimal classifier evaluation. Unlike previous studies, this study evaluates the performance of AIDS by measuring the true positive and negative rates, accuracy, precision, recall, and F-Score of 31 ML-AIDS models. The training and testing time for ML-AIDS models are also considered in measuring their performance efficiency given that time complexity is an important factor in AIDSs. The ML-AIDS models are tested by using a recent and highly unbalanced multiclass CICIDS2017 dataset that involves real-world network attacks. In general, the k-NN-AIDS, DT-AIDS, and NB-AIDS models obtain the best results and show a greater capability in detecting web attacks compared with other models that demonstrate irregular and inferior results.

Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) is an important asset for organisations to facilitate the safeguarding of their systems against new and emerging cyber threats. CTI continuously provides up-to-date information which enables the design and implementation of better security measures and mitigation strategies. Organisations gather data from different sources either internal or external to the organisation, which are analysed, resulting in CTI. Nevertheless, the gathered data usually contain a large amount of content that is irrelevant to CTI or even to cybersecurity. Furthermore, most approaches concerning CTI management (e.g., gathering, analysis) involve simply gathering and storing the information without any enrichment such as classification or correlation. However, in order to obtain optimal results, organisations should be able to utilise all capabilities of CTI. Therefore, in this work, we propose ThreatWise AI, a novel framework that enables the gathering, analysis, enrichment, storage, and sharing of CTI in an efficient and secure manner. In particular, we have developed a novel pipeline in ThreatWise AI which incorporates different advanced tools, with distinct capabilities that interact with each other to provide a complete set of functionalities for the administration of the overall CTI lifecycle. The developed tools integrate various Python scripts and provide gathering and analysis functionalities of CTI. Furthermore, the proposed framework leverages the MISP platform for storing, enriching and sharing while also integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for advanced data enrichment.

Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is a contributor for poor prognosis in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) algorithms-based models for predicting the risk of LLNM in these patients. This is retrospective study comprising 1236 patients who underwent initial thyroid resection at our institution between January 2019 and March 2022. All patients were randomly split into the training dataset (70%) and the validation dataset (30%). Eight ML algorithms, including the Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machine and Bayesian Network were used to evaluate the risk of LLNM. The performance of ML models was evaluated by the area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and decision curve analysis. Among the eight ML algorithms, RF had the highest AUC (0.975), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.903 and 0.959, respectively. It was therefore used to develop as prediction model. The diagnostic performance of RF algorithm was dependent on the following nine top-rank variables: central lymph node ratio, size, central lymph node metastasis, number of foci, location, body mass index, aspect ratio, sex and extrathyroidal extension. By combining clinical and sonographic characteristics, ML algorithms can achieve acceptable prediction of LLNM, of which the RF model performs best. ML algorithms can help clinicians to identify the risk probability of LLNM in PTC patients.

Artificial intelligence (AI) proves decisive in today's rapidly developing society and is a motive force for the evolution of financial technology. As a subdivision of artificial intelligence research, machine learning (ML) algorithm is extensively used in all aspects of the daily operation and development of the supply chain. Using data mining, deductive reasoning, and other characteristics of machine learning algorithms can effectively help decision-makers of enterprises to make more scientific and reasonable decisions by using the existing financial index data. At present, globalization uncertainties such as COVID-19 are intensifying, and supply chain enterprises are facing bankruptcy risk. In the operation process, practical tools are needed to identify and opportunely respond to the threat in the supply chain operation promptly, predict the probability of business failure of enterprises, and take scientific and feasible measures to prevent a financial crisis in good season. Artificial intelligence decision-making technology can help traditional supply chains to transform into intelligent supply chains, realize smart management, and promote supply chain transformation and upgrading. By applying machine learning algorithms, the supply chain can not only identify potential risks in time and adopt scientific and feasible measures to deal with the crisis but also strengthen the connection and cooperation between different enterprises with the advantage of advanced technology to provide overall operation efficiency. On account of this, the paper puts forward an artificial intelligence-based corporate financial-risk-prevention (FRP) model, which includes four stages: data preprocessing, feature selection, feature classification, and parameter adjustment. Firstly, relevant financial index data are collected, and the quality of the selected data is raised through preprocessing; secondly, the chaotic grasshopper optimization algorithm (CGOA) is used to simulate the behavior of grasshoppers in nature to build a mathematical model, and the selected data sets are selected and optimized for features. Then, the support vector machine (SVM) performs classification processing on the quantitative data with reduced features. Empirical risk is calculated using the hinge loss function, and a regular operation is added to optimize the risk structure. Finally, slime mould algorithm (SMA) can optimize the process to improve the efficiency of SVM, making the algorithm more accurate and effective. In this study, Python is used to simulate the function of the corporate business finance risk prevention model. The experimental results show that the CGOA-SVM-SMA algorithm proposed in this paper achieves good results. After calculation, it is found that the prediction and decision-making capabilities are good and better than other comparative models, which can effectively help supply chain enterprises to prevent financial risks.

Background: Musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) is commonly used to detect double contour sign (DCS) to diagnose gout. MSUS is subjective and needs user training and experience for optimal visualisation. Machine learning (ML) models can be used for automatic detection of DCS. We sought to identify the optimal algorithm for detection of DCS on ultrasound images of the fist metatarsophalangeal joint (MTPJ1) using candidate ML algorithms. Methods: MSUS images of MTPJ1 of male patients acquired between January, 2020 and January, 2023 were included in this study. Diagnosis of gout was based on imaging, joint aspiration, serum uric acid level, and clinical evaluation. Images were acquired with a high frequency linear transducer (18 MHz) with a dedicated MSUS machine (Toshiba Xario 200). Patients diagnosed with calcium pyrophosphate crystal disease or gross deformities of MTPJ1 were excluded. Selected images were pre-processed using Keras-OCR. The following candidate ML algorithms were trained: Support Vector machine, tree-based algorithms like Random Forest and Decision Tree and boosting-based algorithms like Gradient Boosting and XGBoost and these were compared with a deep neural network (2D-CNN). Classification outcomes (DCS positive or negative) were compared before and after image augmentation. Classification performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) along with accuracy, precision and F1-score. Results: We used 410 high resolution ultrasound images of MTPJ1 of male patients, 311 patients with gout and positive DCS and 99 patients without gout and no DCS. On average, the final model using XGBoost for detection of DCS showed sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 93.7% and AUROC of 85%. Using XGBoost accuracy and precision were 84.74% and 87% respectively and recall and F1-scores were 94% and 90% respectively. Comparison of different models is given in Table 1. Classification performance improved after augmentation in almost all the models. Conclusions: The classification model based on a boosting based ML model (XGBoost) was trained with a relatively small dataset; however, it showed good accuracy. This proposed system was useful in correct classification of DCS in MSUS images with potential to aid imaging diagnostics of gout in a wider clinical setting.