An Extended Kriging Model-based Method for Efficient Reliability Analysis under Parametric Variation of Probability Distribution

In structural reliability calculation, there are fuzzy uncertainties in the distribution parameters of random variables, which bring the problem of large computation and poor precision. In order to improve accuracy and efficiency of structural reliability, a novel structural reliability calculation method with fuzzy random variables is proposed from the perspective of perturbation principle. First, the fuzzy characteristic parameters of the structural fuzzy random variables are expressed as the sums of their true values and fuzzy perturbations. At the same time, the perturbations are equivalently selected. Second, the probability density function and the performance function are decomposed into a series of intervals under different level cut sets, and the Taylor series is expanded on the upper and lower limits of the intervals. Finally, according to the definition of structural reliability, based on the direct integration method, the sigmoid function is introduced into the reliability function to approximate the step function, and the fuzzy reliability is obtained. The simulation results show the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method, and it provides a feasible way for structural reliability analysis with fuzzy variables or fuzzy random variables.

Although an accurate reliability assessment is essential to build a resilient infrastructure, it usually requires time-consuming computation. To reduce the computational burden, machine learning-based surrogate models have been used extensively to predict the probability of failure for structural designs. Nevertheless, the surrogate model still needs to compute and assess a certain number of training samples to achieve sufficient prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a new surrogate method for reliability analysis called Adaptive Hyperball Kriging Reliability Analysis (AHKRA). The AHKRA method revolves around using a hyperball-based sampling region. The radius of the hyperball represents the precision of reliability analysis. It is iteratively adjusted based on the number of samples required to evaluate the probability of failure with a target coefficient of variation. AHKRA adopts samples in a hyperball instead of an n-sigma rule-based sampling region to avoid the curse of dimensionality. The application of AHKRA in ten mathematical and two practical cases verifies its accuracy, efficiency, and robustness as it outperforms previous Kriging-based methods.

Traditional reliability analysis generally uses probability approach to quantify the uncertainty, while it needs a great amount of information to construct precise distributions of the uncertain parameters. In this paper, a new reliability analysis technique is developed based on a hybrid uncertain model, which can deal with problems with limited information. All uncertain parameters are treated as random variables, while some of their distribution parameters are not given precise values but variation intervals. Due to the existence of the interval parameters, a limit-state strip enclosed by two bounding hyper-surfaces will be resulted in the transformed normal space, instead of a single hyper-surface as we usually obtain in conventional reliability analysis. All the limit-state strips are then summarized into two different classes and corresponding reliability analysis models are proposed for them. A monotonicity analysis is carried out for probability transformations of the random variables, through which effects of the interval distribution parameters on the limit state can be well revealed. Based on the monotonicity analysis, two algorithms are then formulated to solve the proposed hybrid reliability models. Three numerical examples are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the present method.

The quality and reliability of wind turbine blades, as core components of wind turbines, are crucial for the operational safety of the entire system. Carbon fiber is the primary material for wind turbine blades. However, during the manufacturing process, manual intervention inevitably introduces minor defects, which can lead to crack propagation under complex working conditions. Due to limited understanding and measurement capabilities of the input variables of structural systems, the distribution parameters of these variables often exhibit uncertainty. Therefore, it is essential to assess the impact of distribution parameter uncertainty on the fatigue performance of carbon-fiber structures with initial cracks and quickly identify the key distribution parameters affecting their reliability through global sensitivity analysis. This paper proposes a sensitivity analysis method based on surrogate sampling and the Kriging model to address the computational challenges and engineering application difficulties in distribution parameter sensitivity analysis. First, fatigue tests were conducted on carbon-fiber structures with initial cracks to study the dispersion of their fatigue life under different initial crack lengths. Next, based on the Hashin fatigue failure criterion, a simulation analysis method for the fatigue cumulative damage life of cracked carbon-fiber structures was proposed. By introducing uncertainty parameters into the simulation model, a training sample set was obtained, and a Kriging model describing the relationship between distribution parameters and fatigue life was established. Finally, an efficient input variable sampling method using the surrogate sampling probability density function was introduced, and a Sobol sensitivity analysis method based on surrogate sampling and the Kriging model was proposed. The results show that this method significantly reduces the computational burden of distribution parameter sensitivity analysis while ensuring computational accuracy.

Structural reliability analysis with fuzzy random variables using error principle

Reliability is a critical indicator for evaluating the safety and performance of mechanical structures. Surrogate models are widely employed in reliability analysis to reduce computational costs; however, their accuracy strongly depends on the quality of training samples. This paper proposes an uncertainty and distance-driven sequential sampling deep neural network method (UDDS-DNN) for structural reliability analysis. First, initial training samples were generated from the Monte Carlo population (MCP) using the Minimax sampling strategy. This ensured global coverage of the random variable space. Then, the predictive uncertainty of the DNN was quantified using the Jackknife-based method. The estimated uncertainty, inter-sample distance, and probabilistic characteristics of the input random variables were considered. The adaptive learning function was constructed to guide sequential sample enrichment. The proposed method was validated through two numerical examples and three engineering case studies. Results demonstrated that UDDS-DNN achieves high accuracy and computational efficiency in multivariate, nonlinear, and complex structural reliability problems. The method provided an effective solution for reliability analysis of complex structures using DNN-based sequential sampling.

Reliability analysis techniques combining with various surrogate models have attracted increasing attention because of their accuracy and great efficiency. However, they primarily focus on the structures with continuous response, while very rare researches on the reliability analysis for structures with discontinuous response are carried out. Furthermore, existing adaptive reliability analysis methods based on importance sampling (IS) still have some intractable defects when dealing with small failure probability, and there is no related research on reliability analysis for structures involving discontinuous response and small failure probability. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel reliability analysis method called AGPC-IS for such structures, which combines adaptive Gaussian process classification (GPC) and adaptive-kernel-density-estimation-based IS. In AGPC-IS, an efficient adaptive strategy for design of experiments (DoE), taking into consideration the classification uncertainty, the sampling uniformity and the regional classification accuracy improvement, is developed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of Gaussian process classifier. The adaptive kernel density estimation is introduced for constructing the quasi-optimal density function of IS. In addition, a novel and more precise stopping criterion is also developed from the perspective of the stability of failure probability estimation.The efficiency, superiority and practicability of AGPC-IS are verified by three examples

Decoupled reliability-based optimization using Markov chain Monte Carlo in augmented space

The objective of this paper is to minimize the weight of the forearm of the bucket-wheel stacker reclaimer on the premise of guaranteeing strength, stiffness, and non-resonance. Because the stacking and reclaiming are inseparable from the motion of the forearm, the consumed energy is positively proportional to the self-weight and the forearm supports a lot of loads during the working process; it is necessary to minimize the weight under the requirements of strength, stiffness, and non-resonance. However, it is a high-dimensional problem, and it is of low efficiency when the finite element model is used for optimization. Morris method is used to perform the sensitivity analysis on all the variables. Those with great influence, named main factors, are screened out in order to decrease the number of variables taken into account. Surrogate models are introduced to improve the efficiency of optimization. Herein, Kriging models of the weight, the maximum stress, the maximum displacement, the first-order nature frequency under no-load situation, and the second nature frequency under full-load situation are constructed. In order to improve the model with poor precision, the sequential multi-point infill criterion is introduced. Finally, the weight reduction optimization is performed based on the constructed Kriging models. Compared with the initial design, the weight is reduced greatly. Besides, the Kriging models are of excellent accuracy, which proves that Kriging models or surrogate models are effective substitutes for expensive finite element models to deal with optimization problems.

The surrogate model-based sampling method has been an active area of research due to its evident efficiency over direct sampling method. The fusion of the adaptive kriging (AK) model with the adaptive radial-based importance sampling (ARBIS) method is developed as an improvement of the AK model combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method especially for estimating the small failure probabilities. In the AK–ARBIS method, the number of candidate samples in each updating process of the kriging model is reduced through partitioning the whole MCS sample domain into different subdomains and removing the samples inside the last subdomain from the participating candidate sampling pool, which can avoid the time-consuming matrix operation involved in kriging predictions in order to find the best training sample in each updating step. In the existing AK–ARBIS method, kriging model stops updating according to the learning function-based stopping criterion, which cannot directly reflect the error of the estimated failure probability. In this regard, this paper proposes the error-based stopping criterion (ESC) enhanced AK–ARBIS method, where the processes of finding the optimal hypersphere and accurately identifying the sign of candidate samples are decoupled in order to successfully embed the ESC. In addition to embedding the ESC into the AK–ARBIS method, two target-oriented candidate sampling reduction strategies are investigated, respectively, to improve the efficiency of finding the optimal hypersphere and accurately identifying the sign of the participating candidate samples. Based on the candidate sampling pool reduction strategies and ESC, both the computational time and the required number of calls to the real limit state function are reduced over the existing AK–ARBIS method. Three case studies are analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed enhanced AK–ARBIS method, especially for estimating the small failure probabilities.

Based on theories of probability and statistics, and taking static stresses, dynamic stresses, endurance strength, safety ratios, vibration frequencies and exciting force frequencies of blades as random variables, a reliability design method for steam turbine blades is presented. The purport and calculation method for blade reliability are expounded. The distribution parameters of random variables are determined after analysis and numerical calculation of test data. The fatigue strength and the vibration design reliability of turbine blades are determined with the aid of a probabilistic design method and by interference models for stress distribution and strength distribution. Some blade reliability design calculation formulas for a dynamic stress design method, a safety ratio design method for fatigue strength, and a vibration reliability design method for the first and second types of tuned blades and a packet of blades on a disk connected closely, are given together with some practical examples. With these methods, the design reliability of steam turbine blades can be guaranteed in the design stage. This research may provide some scientific basis for reliability design of steam turbine blades.

This paper presents the development and evaluation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) based models and optimally selected surrogate models to provide the day-ahead forecast of the hourly-averaged energy load of buildings, by relating it to eight weather parameters as well as the hour of the day. Although ANN and other surrogate models have been used to predict building energy loads in the past, there is a limited understanding of what type of model prescriptions impact their performance as well as how un-recorded impact factors (e.g., human behavior and building repair work) should be accounted for. Here, the recorded energy data of three university buildings, from 9/2013–12/2015, is cleaned and synchronized with the local weather data. The data is then classified into eight classes; weekends and weekdays of Fall/Winter/Spring/Summer semesters. Both Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) NNs are explored. Differing number of hidden layers and transfer function choices are also explored, leading to the choice of the hyperbolic-tangent-sigmoid transfer function and 60 hidden layers. Similarly, an automated surrogate modeling framework is used to select the best models from among a pool of Kriging, RBF, and SVR models. A baseline concept, that uses energy information from the previous day as an added input to the ANN, helps to account for otherwise unrecorded recent changes in the building behavior, leading to improvement in fidelity of up to 30%.

The seismic reliability calculation of complex building structures requires a lot of simulation analysis and therefore the calculation cost is high. Fitting performance function with surrogate model can improve computational efficiency, but how to ensure the calculation accuracy while improving the reliability analysis efficiency of the engineering structure is a problem worthy of study. This paper proposes a Kriging-based reliability analysis method, which establishes the Kriging surrogate model with fewer calculations of the performance function, improves the accuracy of the surrogate model of performance function by infill-sampling, and obtains the approximate failure probability combined with Monte Carlo simulation. Two numerical examples are analyzed; the results show that this method is efficient and accurate. The method is applied to the seismic reliability calculation of mega-sub controlled structural system, in which the randomness of structure and seismic action is considered. The application results show that it is an effective method for reliability analysis of complex building structures.

A new unequal-weighted sampling method for efficient reliability analysis

The number of aerodynamic analysis in the design optimization of propeller has been reduced significantly by using the surrogate model, such as kriging. In this paper, a more efficient aerodynamic design optimization method of propeller is proposed by using the HK (hierarchical kriging) model. The high-fidelity model is defined as a RANS (Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes) simulation for propeller and the low-fidelity model is defined as the results by blade-element/vortex theory. Initial samples are selected for two levels of fidelity via LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling). The aerodynamic performance of varying fidelity is used to build variable-fidelity surrogate models for functions of objective (e.g. thrust) and constraint (e.g. shaft power). Infill sampling criteria, including MSP (minimizing of surrogate prediction), EI (expected improvement), PI (probability of improvement), LCB (lower-confidence bounding) and MSE (mean-squared error) are used to obtain new samples, and the surrogate models are repetitively updated until a global optimum is found. High-altitude propellers are optimized by the kriging model and hierarchical kriging model, respectively. Compared to kriging model, the number of RANS solving by the hierarchical kriging model is reduced 37.5%, and the optimization time is reduced 24.3%. The results have shown that the proposed design method for propeller can significantly improve the optimization efficiency.