Analyzing sensitivity measures using moment-matching technique

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are used to describe and compare the accuracy of diagnostic test or the ability of a continuous biomarker in discriminating between the subjects into healthy or diseased cases in medical field. The most familiar form of ROC curve is Bi-normal (Gaussian) ROC curve model, which assumes that the test scores or a monotone transformation of the test scores are from two normal populations (i.e. healthy and diseased). It may not be true all the time, it may violate the assumptions of normal distribution in some situations and also we cannot adopt the model as it is when the sample size is small. In this paper, we have proposed ROC curve model for Rayleigh distribution which can be used even when sample size is small. The properties of Bi-Rayleigh ROC model are studied and Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) are derived. The proposed model is supported by real life example as well as simulation studies. The confidence interval for the population parameter is studied with simulation studies of varying sample sizes. It is found that Bi-Rayleigh ROC model provides better accuracy of classification than the conventional bi-normal ROC model. In the ROC model section, Bi-Rayleigh ROC model and its AUC are derived and its properties are discussed. In application section, two real life example viz. Head trauma data and Multiple Sclerosis data were used for the proposed model and then these are compared with the conventional bi- normal model. In the simulation section, simulation studies have been carried out for different values of parameters to support the Bi-Rayleigh ROC model. In the last section, the confidence intervals for the parameter σi, i=0,1 are discussed for real life example and simulated data sets. II. ROC MODEL AND AREA UNDER THE CURVE Let the scores (S) be a random variable in healthy (H) and diseased (D) populations respectively. The ROC curve is plotted over values of threshold value (t) and is given by y(t) = h (x(t)) where x(t) is the False positive rate which is given by x(t) = P(S>t|H) and y(t) is True positive rate which is given by y(t) = P (S>t|D) The general functional form of ROC can be represented as

Inference on adaptive progressive hybrid censored accelerated life test for Gompertz distribution and its evaluation for virus-containing micro droplets data

Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models

To overcome the disadvantage of traditional variance-based importance measures, i.e. the effects of different realizations of input variables on output response may mutually counteract each other, a modified variance-based importance measure is presented for importance analysis of the input variables. The proposed measure analyses the importance of the input variables comprehensively in terms of the expectation and variance of the output response. Compared with the traditional variance-based importance analysis method, the modified importance measure indices not only reflect the old one, but also provide a very useful supplement for it. Furthermore, combined with the advantages of the state dependent parameter model, a solution to the proposed measure indices is provided. Several examples are introduced to show that the modified importance measure is more comprehensive and reasonable, and the solution based on the state dependent parameter method can improve computational efficiency considerably with acceptable precision.

Be Kind Rewind, as spoken by the film's title, one may understand the trick that hides behind as Rewind is also associated with the same consonance Remind telling us a film that shares the collective memory of the public. The concept of the Society of Spectacle is brought forward by Guy Debord 1970s, which he sheds lights on the class alienation, commodification of cultural products, Debord (7) as well as the role of media's metamorphosis staging the so called reality on TV, is considered to be a mainstream channel 1970s-1980s for people to obtain the news and enjoy entertainment. With this concept, we draw the central theme of discussing this with the film Be Kind Rewind which it stages how the antique video rental store is forced to be demolished and the adventure that the new generation helps renew the product and share the collective memory, going back to the theme of commodity fetishism that Jappe (16) put forward. From the view point of Theodor Adorno, in psycho-analysis nothing is true except the exaggeration and for film as a product, it also echoes with the idea of fetishism that stated by Wall (22). Here, the conflict of urbanization and modern development makes it an echo to the concept of the spectacle of making the class alienated through the commodification process of video rental store and also alienates the old people from the rapid development of the modern city. With the revival of reshooting the film with no budget, it connects closely to the concept of the work of art the age of mechanical reproduction that Walter Benjamin put forward that the unique existence of the work of the art determined the history to which it was subject throughout the time of its existence, according to Benjamin (3). Most importantly, while we watch this film, the real life example that happens Hong Kong media industry would be Asia Television Limited (ATV) that they stage their Rescue Our ATV Show order to save their company by attracting the potential While this case connects with the aforementioned film, we can see actually what happen real life is the opposite. Nostalgia turns into a ridicule. From Jameson (15), postmodernism that the modernist engagement with art and culture is lost the recycling of things, past full of sentiments, but devoid of the critique, reflections. The television under such circumstance is not limited to provide information and showing the greatest entertainment programme but becomes a spectacle to ask for money yet not a glamourous and commoditized manner. In light of this, this research is going to explore how mechanical reproduction alienates our society from the real life and how commodification of cultural product especially Hong Kong TV industry make themselves become the spectacle this day and age by carrying out content and textual analysis of the above mentioned cases. It would offer a theoretical contribution which society of spectacle not only brings the success of TV industry but also actually polarizes the TV industry into the mass product and only through exposing its weakness to the audiences as to save the reputation and attract upcoming investors.

Sensitivity analysis of recovery efficiency in high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage with single well

For decades now the oil companies and the communities they operate in the vicinity of have had a kind of love-hate relationship with many ups and downs on the way. On the one hand the communities love the economic benefit and regional advancement that the oil companies bring in their wake while on the other they decry the real as well as imaginary environmental, health or safety related threats posed by the oil, gas and petrochemical plants operating in their midst. As the population increases with time so does the demand for land required for urban development. This by necessity results in building of residential and commercial areas in close proximity of process plants, refinery and other oil handling facilities. This paper highlights the need for mutual cooperation that must exist amongst all parties concerned: the Company, the urbanization and planning bodies, community leaders, public servants, journalists and industrialists. This cooperation can only materialize through mutual trust which in turn can only be generated through a better understanding by all of the actual risks associated with various oil refining and oil handling facilities and the risk mitigation measure that the Company employs to ensure all real risks are reduced to a level as low as is reasonably practicable. The concept of "zero-risk" being attainable in a process environment is infeasible. For land use decision-making we must apply formal techniques of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and other recognized risk evaluation methods that are being used by many government organizations in Europe and North America. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) have issued quite comprehensive guidelines on this topic which have found acceptance worldwide. This paper briefly explains how the QRA technique works and provides several real life examples of use of QRA in land use planning in Bahrain. There is an immediate need for rational risk mitigation by the Company and rational risk acceptance by the community -- all for the sake of common national interest and vision for the future. Creation of a joint review board working in an advisory capacity might be the answer.

PurposeThe purpose was to describe the redesigning of an online course that utilized adult learning principles and a framework to engage students.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used is a first person account from the instructor point of view.FindingsFindings indicate that the teaching strategies used encouraged student engagement in the course.Research limitations/implicationsThe research is limited to one course with less than 20 students.Practical implicationsOther online instructors can utilize teaching strategies used that promote engagement among students.Social implicationsThis course is an example of a highly engaging online course. This shows that online courses can be engaging and satisfying for students.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the body of literature on what teaching strategies encourage students to engage online. It connects theories with real life examples that others teaching online can implement.

At present, there exist many modeling techniques for capturing business semantics from different perspectives: transactional, goal-oriented, aspect-oriented, value-oriented, etc. The results of these modeling techniques serve as natural input for the software system generation process. However, none of these current modeling proposals takes into account the service nature of most business organizations and/or the growing importance of service orientation in computing. In this paper we present a solution to this problem: a new business service-oriented modeling approach which extends the i* framework. The proposed approach enables analysts to represent an organizational model as a composition of business services, where business services are the basic building blocks to encapsulate a set of business process models. In these models, actors participate in actor dependency networks through interfaces defined in a business service specification. Our proposal is illustrated by several real life examples.

A balance between efficiency and flexibility is obtained by developing a relative large number of in-house DSP-cores each for a relatively small application area. These cores are programmed using existing ASIC synthesis tools which are modified for this purpose. The key problem is to model conflicts arising from the instruction set. A class of instruction sets is defined for which conflicts can be modelled statically before scheduling. The approach is illustrated with a real life example. >

A sub-task of Natural Language Generation (NLG) is the generation of referring expressions (REG). REG algorithms aim to select attributes that unambiguously identify an entity with respect to a set of distractors. Previous work has defined a methodology to evaluate REG algorithms using real life examples with naturally occurring alterations in the properties of referring entities. It has been found that REG algorithms have key parameters tuned to exhibit a large degree of robustness. Using this insight, we present here experiments for learning the order of semantic properties used by a high performing REG algorithm. Presenting experiments on two types of entities (people and organizations) and using different versions of DBpedia (a freely available knowledge base containing information extracted from Wikipedia pages) we found that robustness of the tuned algorithm and its parameters do coincide but more work is needed to learn these parameters from data in a generalizable fashion.

'Bureaucracy is the reason for the decline in school trips. A statement often quoted. But it is a myth that there is a decline in school visits...It's competent people, not paperwork, that make visits safer' - Ian Park, ex-Chairman, Outdoor Education Advisers' Panel 'Every man and woman who is involved in the development or education of young people - however slightly - should be chained to one of the Barns of Bynack and not released until they have read this book cover to cover' - Alan Bantick, wildlife conservationist, lecturer, photographer and guide 'Bob Barton's balanced and well though out book will help anyone involved with the planning and management of outdoor activities for young people. Bob explores the issues that need to be considered when developing and implementing outdoor policies and procedures, in an interesting and though provoking style, drawing on his wealth of outdoor experience' - Peter Westgarth, Chief Executive, The Duke of Edinburgh's Award 'This book fills a gap which sorely needed filling.The safety versus adventure debate is discussed in a thoroughly refreshing way and should inspire a new generation of teachers and youth workers to take their charges into the great outdoors. The book should be required reading for every Health and Safety Officer throughout the land to improve their understanding of what Adventure Educators are trying to achieve' - Doug Jones, County Officer, Outdoor Education and Adventure Activities, Bedfordshire County Council 'A distillation of years of experience in adventure activities and an essential guide to getting the proper balance between adventure and safety' - Nick Barrett, Chief Executive of the Outward Bound Trust Providers of outdoor education must strike the right balance between adventure and security. Effective risk management enables providers to deliver lasting educational value without breaching their moral and legal duties of care. This practical guide shows how genuinely adventurous outdoor activities can be provided to acceptable standards of safety.Drawing on the author's own experience as an expert mountaineer, instructor and consultant, the systems and processes of successful outdoor adventure are clearly explained using real life examples and case studies. Bob Barton is Safety Adviser to the Outward Bound Trust and works as a consultant on the management of adventure activities.

For sawmills, paper mills, particleboard, oriented strand board (OSB), fiberboard and other wood production factories, the log yard is the first step, where raw materials are sorted and stored before production begins. Due to the size of these production sites great potential exists for the optimisation of internal logistics. In this paper the different planning problems of the log yard are introduced and existing literature examined. Beginning with the tactical problems of structure, such as assessing material flow, planning facility layout and assigning storage areas, it continues with operational problems such as vehicle movement planning within the log yard, empty trip minimisation and the seasonality of raw material availability. Data derived from this study reveals a variety of possible solution methods, the applicability of which depends on the precise nature of the log yard operations. Additionally, several real life examples are provided which illustrate the potential for operational improvement.

A method using third order moments for estimating the regression coefficients as well as the latent state scores of the reduced‐rank regression model when the latent variable(s) are non‐normally distributed is presented in this paper. It is shown that the factor analysis type indeterminacy of the regression coefficient matrices is eliminated. A real life example of the proposed method is presented. Differences of this solution with the reduced‐rank regression eigen solution are discussed.

The authors describe a classroom experiment that demonstrates many topics which are related to process improvement. The students are assigned random numbers and asked to pass a ball, in number order, in the shortest time possible without dropping the ball. This pedagogical experiment illustrates a variety of concepts related to process improvement that are often difficult to teach without having a real life example. By actively taking part in the experiment, students gain a better understanding of process improvement concepts.