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  • https://doi.org/10.24425/ather.2025.156850Copy DOI Icon

Application of machine learning in the process of commander decision support in the military fuel distribution system

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Abstract

Providing energy to troops requires maintaining optimal fuel levels across all management stages, especially within Garrison Support Units and Regional Logistic Bases. The article examines the fuel distribution system supported by a program that predicts commanders’ actions using input data from subordinate units. To aid decision-making, Garrison Support Units implemented neural network variants to model logistical activities, training, peacetime operations, or combat, and segment fuel supply accordingly. The Neural Network Toolbox from MATLAB (MathWorks) was used for computations. The study presents the Garrison Support Units operational assumptions, the role of commanders as agents, and factors affecting fuel distribution. It also outlines the development of the Logistic Decision Support System dashboard, which enables entering decision variables, neural network coefficients, and weights to forecast fuel consumption and plan future operations based on environmental and operational data. The article includes MATLAB simulation results, analysing neural network algorithms and neuron counts per layer to determine the most effective configuration for decision-making optimisation. Results show that the Bayesian regularisation algorithm achieved the lowest mean square error across all data sets and the highest prediction accuracy measured by the root mean squared error. The regression coefficient confirmed a strong correlation between predicted and actual outcomes, demonstrating the Bayesian regularisation algorithm’s effectiveness in supporting logistical fuel management decisions.

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