Assessment of Operational Risks of Electric Interlocking Systems

3 - Time varying signals

Since the global financial crisis, banking regulators and academics have extended the traditional, narrow definition of to encompass concepts such as interconnectedness and shadow banking. But, at the time of writing, a definition of systemic risk that covers all of the factors that precipitated the global financial crisis is still emerging. This paper first describes the debate around the emerging definition(s) of systemic risk and discusses some of the initiatives to address systemic risk by international regulators. These initiatives include microprudential regulations, such as increasing capital for systemically important banks, and macroprudential initiatives, such as the creation of the European Systemic Risk Board. Recognizing that systemic risks arise not only from credit and market risk factors, this paper views systemic risk through the lens of operational risk, arguing that key risk factors, especially people and process risks, were pervasive across the global financial industry prior to the global financial crisis and, consequently, operational risk must be considered as a contributor to, and in some instances a trigger for, systemic risk. The paper goes on to describe the microprudential approach to operational risk within the Basel II regulations and identifies and describes operational risks that were present prior to the global financial crisis. The paper concludes that there is indeed a systemic dimension to operational risk that should be recognized and addressed by banking regulators.Finally, the paper makes some suggestions as to how the management of systemic operational risks may be addressed by banks and regulators.

The problem of digital modeling of random processes with given either correlation function or spectral density of the process is considered. These functions of a random process are interconnected by the Wiener–Khinchin theorem. The solution of one function can be used to solve another. The development of a mathematical representation of a stationary random process with a given correlation function based on the Karhunen-Loeve transformation, which is most often used to decorrelate the original process in order to describe it more concisely (data compression problem), has been completed. It is proposed to use the Karhunen–Loev transformation to impart the required correlation properties to the original uncorrelated random process by inverting (converting) this transformation. The form of the required transformation for a discrete (in time) representation of input and output processes of various lengths and methods for ensuring the required modeling accuracy are substantiated. A procedure for obtaining a correlation function from a given spectral density of a simulated random process is presented. An experimental study of the proposed method was carried out in the course of computer simulation in the Mathcad package which simplified the solution of the required computational problems. The initial random process was obtained as a sequence of independent (and, therefore, uncorrelated) random numbers, and the output process, as a result of the transformation, was obtained in the work. The calculated approximate correlation function is compared with the given one and the error variance is determined. The results of modeling random processes with given correlation functions and a homogeneous Markov process with a given transition probability are given as well as an example of the transition from a given spectral density of a random process to its correlation function. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed modeling methods which will allow them to be used in computer research and design of various systems.

PT Borneo Indobara (BIB) is planning to implement Minestar, an integrated mining management system, in 2025 to enhance operational efficiency and safety. However, the implementation of this system poses several operational risks that require careful management to ensure success. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive risk matrix and propose effective mitigation strategies for the Minestar implementation at BIB, using the SNI ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework. The research employs a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative techniques such as semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions (FGD) with quantitative analysis using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Data was collected from key stakeholders directly involved in the Minestar project to assess the severity, occurrence, and detection of each identified risk, which were then used to develop a risk matrix. The results of the study identified and prioritized several critical operational risks, with a three-dimensional risk matrix providing a clear visualization of their severity, occurrence, and detection levels. This structured approach allows BIB's management to prioritize risks and allocate resources effectively for risk mitigation. The findings of this research contribute to operational risk management in the mining industry, particularly for the implementation of advanced technologies like Minestar. The practical insights provided can serve as a reference for similar projects in the industry, helping organizations to address operational challenges proactively.

Operational Risk is More Systemic than You Think: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies

In occupational safety and health (OSH), the process of assessing risks of identified hazards considers both the (i) foreseeable events and exposures that can cause harm and (ii) the likelihood or probability of occurrence. To account for both, a table format known as a risk assessment matrix uses rows and columns for ordered categories of the foreseeable severity of harm and likelihood/probability of that occurrence. The cells within the table indicate level of risk. Each category has a text description separate from the matrix as well as a word or phrase heading each row and column. Ideally, these header terms will help the risk assessment team distinguish among the categories. A previous project provided recommended sets of header terms for common matrices based on findings from a survey of undergraduate OSH students. This paper provides background on risk assessment matrices, discusses usability issues, and presents findings from a survey of people with OSH-related experience. The aim of the survey was to confirm or improve the prior recommended sets of terms. The prior recommendations for severity, likelihood, and extent of exposure were confirmed with minor modifications. Improvements in the probability terms were recommended.

Operational risk is one of the risks that must be faced by every financial institution, including Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) KCP Gunung Tua. Operational risk is faced by all banks because running a bank's business cannot be separated from the human factor, service procedures, administrative processes, and so on. With the emergence of operational risk, there must be causes. The operational risk can cause the bank to lose money which is caused by several factors, namely first, failure in internal processes related to procedural failures. Second, system failure, the main risk to operations due to the bank's increasing dependence on technology. Third, external events, external factors come from matters beyond the control of the bank which also affect the company's operational performance. This study used a qualitative research method with a descriptive approach, the data sources obtained were primary data and secondary data, which were obtained through interview methods, observation methods, documentation methods and data analysis methods.From the results of this study it can be seen that operational risks that occur at BSI KCP Gunung Tua occur due to internal risks such as incorrect checking of counterfeit money, human resource risks such as atk carried by customers, system risks, namely systems that are down and will always occur every year, risks law such as loss of customer guarantees, as well as external risks such as the Covid-19 disaster. The BSI KCP Gunung Tua continues to improve its risk management in order to reduce operational risks that occur. The method used by BSI KCP Gunung Tua to overcome operational risks that occur is by focusing on these 2 factors, optimizing controlling for all employees (internal) and also optimizing controlling for customers (external). It can be seen from the management that has been implemented quite well, it can be seen that the operational risk at BSI KCP Gunung Tua is now reduced. The current operational risk is only because the system is down and that is now only once a year. And the risk because of covid-19 has reduced.

The multi-random-effects gamma process has a better characterization effect for degraded data with individual differences. In this paper, a reliability evaluation method for gamma stochastic processes with multiple random effects is studied. The mathematical model of multiple random effects gamma process was established. The model parameters estimation method was established based on the Bayesian approach. The prior distribution acquisition method was discussed, and the parameters of the multiple randomeffects gamma process were estimated by the MCMC-Gibbs method. The correctness of the model and method was verified by numerical simulation, the influence of algorithm parameters on the algorithm solving process was studied. In the fourth part, the reliability of aviation hydraulic rotary joints was studied by using multiple random effects gamma processes.

Application of fuzzy expert systems in assessing operational risk of software

A complete mathematical modeling of the technological process of manufacturing vinyl acetate monomer by vapor-phase method has been implemented. The model is partial differential equations of the material and energy balance and catalyst aging. An algorithm for an integrated equation based on the second-order Gregg-Bulirsh-Shter rectangle symbol has been developed. The error in modeling the process is equal (CH3COOCH=CH2) ± 5.4% rel. for the target matter, and (CO2) ± 6.4% rel. for the secondary substance The kinetic coefficients of differential equations, namely the pre-exponential factors and the activation energy have been refined. The obtained data of the modeling of the vapor-phase manufacturing process of vinyl acetate are shown in the form of tables and graphic three-dimensional dependencies of quality indicators on technological parameters.

Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes

Quantitative assessment of risk matrix through analysis of reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) is used as quick visual tool for managing potential risk in any continuous production system which can be used for further improved maintenance planning. Fault tree analysis along with failure mode and effect analysis support in assessing risk of minor or major failures associated with different consequences of human impact, production loss, maintenance loss etc. For developing risk matrix, scoring of likelihood and severity are necessary to identify the potential risk zone. An attempt has been made in the present study to assess overall failure scenario of offset-printing machine by analysing reliability of different machine component. Different types of failure frequencies and corresponding failure probability of the machine are set as a value representative likelihood failure data. The critical consequences of these failures are discussed for estimation of actual risk and risk index. Matrix of risk and risk priority number is developed here on the basis of likelihood scores of each kind of failure probability and severity scores by considering different types of breakdown and their associated responsible machine component. Moreover, prioritization of different failure types is validated by MonteCarlo simulation. Based on the risk matrix developed, maintainability and maintenance interval time has been determined which seems to be a novel approach for reduction of risk and breakdown time. Finally, maintenance and safety recommendation on the basis of corresponding risk level and maintainability indicator rating are discussed.

Derivatives holdings and bank systemic risk: Cross-country evidence

To optimize the dispatch and operation control of high proportion renewable energy power system, it is necessary to accurately quantify and evaluate the operational risk of system. For the high proportion renewable energy power system with uncertain wind and light sources, this paper presents a operational risk assessment method of wind and water systems based on probability assessment. By analyzing the distribution of uncertainty probability of system, the state probability is expressed as wind power output probability, solar output probability, transmission line probability and real-time state probability of system components. Use the analytic hierarchy process to assign weight to each type of risk indicators to solve the importance matching problem of different types of risk. On this basis, a operational risk assessment model is built by using Monte Carlo method which is used to select the real-time system states. Finally, an example is analyzed based on the actual power grid in a certain area, and calculation results show that the proposed quantitative calculation method for operational risk assessment of wind, solar and water multi-energy power systems can effectively evaluate the actual operation risk of system and meet the risk assessment requirements of high proportion renewable energy power system.

Leveraging heterogeneous device connectivity in a converged 5G-IoT ecosystem