Bayesian Networks Methods for Traffic Flow Prediction

Previously published literature has identified a few predictors of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after bariatric surgery. However, performance of the predictive models was not evaluated rigorously using real world data. To find better methods for predicting prognosis in patients after bariatric surgery, we examined performance of the Bayesian networks (BN) method in predicting long-term postoperative HRQoL and compared it with the convolution neural network (CNN) and multivariable logistic regression (MLR). The patients registered in the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg) were used for the current study. In total, 6542 patients registered in the SOReg between 2008 and 2012 with complete demographic and preoperative comorbidity information, and preoperative and postoperative 5-year HROoL scores and comorbidities were included in the study. HRQoL was measured using the RAND-SF-36 and the obesity-related problems scale. Thirty-five variables were used for analyses, including 19 predictors and 16 outcome variables. The Gaussian BN (GBN), CNN, and a traditional linear regression model were used for predicting 5-year HRQoL scores, and multinomial discrete BN (DBN) and MLR were used for 5-year comorbidities. Eighty percent of the patients were randomly selected as a training dataset and 20% as a validation dataset. The GBN presented a better performance than the CNN and the linear regression model; it had smaller mean squared errors (MSEs) than those from the CNN and the linear regression model. The MSE of the summary physical scale was only 0.0196 for GBN compared to the 0.0333 seen in the CNN. The DBN showed excellent predictive ability for 5-year type 2 diabetes and dyslipidemia (area under curve (AUC) = 0.942 and 0.917, respectively), good ability for 5-year hypertension and sleep apnea syndrome (AUC = 0.891 and 0.834, respectively), and fair ability for 5-year depression (AUC = 0.750). Bayesian networks provide useful tools for predicting long-term HRQoL and comorbidities in patients after bariatric surgery. The hybrid network that may involve variables from different probability distribution families deserves investigation in the future.

Traffic Estimation and Optimal Counting Location Without Path Enumeration Using Bayesian Networks

Two statistical applications for estimation and prediction of flows in traffic networks are presented. In the first, the number of route users are assumed to be independent α-shifted gamma Γ(θ, λ0) random variables denoted H(α, θ, λ0), with common λ0. As a consequence, the link, OD (origin-destination) and node flows are also H(α, θ, λ0) variables. We assume that the main source of information is plate scanning, which permits us to identify, totally or partially, the vehicle route, OD and link flows by scanning their corresponding plate numbers at an adequately selected subset of links. A Bayesian approach using conjugate families is proposed that allows us to estimate different traffic flows. In the second application, a stochastic demand dynamic traffic model to predict some traffic variables and their time evolution in real networks is presented. The Bayesian network model considers that the variables are generalized Beta variables such that when marginally transformed to standard normal become multivariate normal. The model is able to provide a point estimate, a confidence interval or the density of the variable being predicted. Finally, the models are illustrated by their application to the Nguyen Dupuis network and the Vermont-State example. The resulting traffic predictions seem to be promising for real traffic networks and can be done in real time.

Bayesian networks are often proposed as a method for high-level information fusion. However, a Bayesian network relies on strong assumptions about the underlying probabilities. In many cases it is not realistic to require such precise probability assessments. We show that there exists a significant set of problems where credal networks outperform Bayesian networks, thus enabling more dependable decision making for this type of problems. A credal network is a graphical probabilistic method that utilizes sets of probability distributions, e.g., interval probabilities, for representation of belief. Such a representation allows one to properly express epistemic uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that can be reduced if more information becomes available. Since reducing uncertainty has been proposed as one of the main goals of information fusion, the ability to represent epistemic uncertainty becomes an important aspect in all fusion applications.

Learning parameters of Bayesian networks from datasets with systematically missing data: A meta–analytic approach

Sensitivity to evidence in Gaussian Bayesian networks using mutual information

Gaussian Bayesian network model of healthcare, food and energy sectors in the pandemic: Türkiye case

Cancer can be a result of accumulation of different types of genetic mutations such as copy number aberrations. The data from tumors are cross-sectional and do not contain the temporal order of the genetic events. Finding the order in which the genetic events have occurred and progression pathways are of vital importance in understanding the disease. In order to model cancer progression, we propose Progression Networks, a special case of Bayesian networks, that are tailored to model disease progression. Progression networks have similarities with Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (CBNs) [1],a variation of Bayesian networks also proposed for modeling disease progression. We also describe a learning algorithm for learning Bayesian networks in general and progression networks in particular. We reduce the hard problem of learning the Bayesian and progression networks to Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). MILP is a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time complete (NP-complete) problem for which very good heuristics exists. We tested our algorithm on synthetic and real cytogenetic data from renal cell carcinoma. We also compared our learned progression networks with the networks proposed in earlier publications. The software is available on the website https://bitbucket.org/farahani/diprog.

Interval data are widely used in real applications to represent the values of quantities in uncertain situations. However, the implied probabilistic causal relationships among interval-valued variables with interval data cannot be represented and inferred by general Bayesian networks with point-based probability parameters. Thus, it is desired to extend the general Bayesian network with effective mechanisms of representation, learning and inference of probabilistic causal relationships implied in interval data. In this paper, we define the interval probabilities, the bound-limited weak conditional interval probabilities and the probabilistic description, as well as the multiplication rules. Furthermore, we propose the method for learning the Bayesian network structure from interval data and the algorithm for corresponding approximate inferences. Experimental results show that our methods are feasible, and we conclude that the Bayesian network with interval probability parameters is the expansion of the general Bayesian network.

Energy financial risk early warning model based on Bayesian network

Extreme inaccuracies in Gaussian Bayesian networks

A methodology for developing Bayesian networks: An application to information technology (IT) implementation

This paper develops a model validation method in the case of the full scale tests for the system model are infeasible. The Bayesian network with uncertain conditional probability parameters is used to represent the relations between the large computational model and its smaller modules. The interval probability theory is adopted to extrapolate the posterior probability of the interested variable in the uncertain Bayesian network. An interval valued Bayes factor is obtained to be the metric for model validation.

For the past decades, Virtual Metrology (VM) has been widely studied and covered in the literature for semiconductor industries where cycle time is a critical aspect and the elimination of non-productive metrology measurements is expected to significantly contribute to its reduction. A wide variety of approaches has been proposed but not effectively implemented. An ideal VM model should be able to provide accurate predictions and to reveal the hidden relationship among production/process factors. For this aim, we employ the Gaussian Bayesian Network (GBN) to investigate the implicit relationship not only between the metrology and the control factors but also among the production/process parameters. Instead of working purely as a black-box data-driven methodology, GBN enables the flexibility to integrate domain knowledge through the corresponding connected graph. The effectiveness of proposed approach is validated using real industrial data from a Chemical-Mechanical Polishing (CMP) process.

A sub-space greedy search method for efficient Bayesian Network inference