Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

The paper analyzes as to how Bangladesh can secure its future demand of electricity and mitigate greenhouse gas emission to meet the targets of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The overall objective of the study is to assess the possible mitigation of greenhouse gases emission for achieving NDCs from power sector of Bangladesh through solar photovoltaic systems. A quantitative analysis was done to project future power consumptions and greenhouse gas emissions up to 2030. A scenario analysis was also done to see the effects of different primary energy mix in power on the emissions. It is found that the total consumption in different sectors will increase with an increasing population and the GDP. Industrial and residential sectors are the main consumers of power. The scenario result shows that there is relationship between the energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions. The fossil fuels have higher emissions in the scenarios where they are thought to be main contributor to the energy mix. In case of high renewables, the emissions can be mitigated to meet the targets of NDCs. As Bangladesh receives high solar radiation, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems can be the main source of renewable energy in such case. Therefore, solar photovoltaic technology is essentially required not only for achieving the targets of NDCs but also for the development of a low carbon power sector in Bangladesh for a sustainable future. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Centennial Special Volume June 2022: 43-51

Transparency requirements under the Paris Agreement and their (un)likely impact on strengthening the ambition of nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

Since the Paris Agreement in COP21, many countries around the world, including Ghana and Thailand, have established a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with first update recently in COP26. With Ghana’s ongoing effort at COP26 to change its baseline to 2019, this study established a detailed Ghana vehicle ownership model with necessary transport parameters to construct an energy demand model to provide insight for reducing GHG emission contributions from road transport through biofuel (both bioethanol and biodiesel) potential by recourse to a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP), with two scenarios of development from Thailand’s best practice for policy recommendation, which are alternative (ALT), with up to E20/B20, and extreme (EXT), with up to E85/B50, for new vehicles. In each case, energy demand and GHG emissions were analyzed from detailed data on Ghana’s transport sector to show potential benefit from biofuel usages. From Ghana’s transport sector contribution to NDC, 8.4% and 11.1% of GHG emission reduction in 2030 can be achieved with a 0.13% and 0.27% additional arable land requirement from ALT and EXT scenarios. Policy recommendation and implication were also discussed.

<sec><p indent="0mm">The Paris Agreement has set the goal of limiting the global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels and established a process for global carbon stocktaking which will take place every five years starting from 2023. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015. Under the Paris Agreement, each country is required to present its NDCs report using the standard ‘bottom-up’ inventory approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 49th session of IPCC has suggested a ‘top-down’ inversion approach to assess NDCs using measurements of atmospheric Green House Gases (GHGs). Satellite remote sensing can measure the atmospheric GHG concentration at global scale with fine resolution, high accuracy and high frequency, providing a promising tool to validate each country’s NDCs. The European Union, the United States, Japan, and Canada are vigorously developing their satellite systems for monitoring GHGs’ concentrations and emissions. China is also planning to build a GHGs monitoring satellite system to support the second carbon stocktaking in 2028. Therefore, it is extremely urgent to review and investigate the techniques, methods and cutting-edge applications of remote sensing for GHGs monitoring and stocktaking. </sec><sec> In this paper, we first reviewed the current techniques, networks, and upcoming national or international plans for monitoring atmospheric GHGs based on ground-based, airborne, and satellite platforms. The global carbon stocktaking requires continuous and accurate observations of GHGs’ concentrations and fluxes from ground, tower-based, airborne, and spaceborne platforms. The World Meteorological Congress (WMO) approved an ambitious international project, named the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W) initiative to address key information gaps in our understanding of anthropic and natural activities on the global carbon cycle, and help parties assess the completion of GST reports. Second, we proposed the key features of the next generation carbon monitoring satellite system, which was characterized by high spatial resolution, high accuracy, high temporal frequency, and multiple gases as well as atmospheric aerosol and co-emitted polluted gases (NO₂, CO). However, it is still challenging to meet the strict accuracy requirements for the atmospheric GHGs’ concentrations, such as <sc>1 ppm</sc> for CO₂, 5 ppb for CH₄, and 1 ppb for N₂O. China’s next-generation carbon satellite is to be launched in 2026, which will greatly enhance observation capabilities, including GHG species, accuracy, time frequency and spatial resolution. Third, taking the Global Carbon Project (GCP) series of assessment reports as the core references, we summarized the current methods, progress and challenges in the scientific assessment of GHGs’ emissions at global or regional scales. We also investigated the roles and current capabilities of satellite remote sensing and assimilation inversion technology in monitoring emissions of the three major greenhouse gases: CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O. At present, there are large uncertainties among the estimated GHGs’ fluxes (both emissions and sinks) due to very limited observations, model accuracy, and coarse resolution of assimilation systems etc. Finally, we investigated China’s demand for GHGs monitoring and emission assessment, and proposed three urgent tasks for global carbon stocktaking using the ‘top-down’ remote sensing method. These tasks include developing a satellite constellation for high-precision GHGs observation, a high-resolution, multi-species global GHG assimilation system, and an operational platform to assess global GHG emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, this paper, focusing on the needs of compliance with climate change and the “dual-carbon” targets, provides ideas for the construction of China’s next generation carbon-sensing satellite system. </sec>

ABSTRACTThe 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the run-up to COP 21, most UNFCCC Parties put forward intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), containing mitigation pledges. These INDCs are now being confirmed as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as governments formally ratify the Paris Agreement. NDCs are supposed to provide transparent, quantifiable, comparable, and verifiable mitigation objectives. However, there is neither methodological nor data consistency in the way Parties have prepared their NDCs. This article showcases recent collaboration among research, government, and private institutions that contributed to the Colombian NDC. While documenting the novel research, data, and rich web of collaboration that helped the Colombian government prepare the country’s NDC, this article links this specific case with the challenges of policy-oriented and interactive models of research. Our experience confirms previous research on the importance of stakeholder interaction, transparency and openness of processes, and willingness to break disciplinary and institutional barriers. In addition, the experience points to the importance of having appropriate available resources and a local institution acting as champion for the project.POLICY RELEVANCEThe lack of methodological and data consistency in the way parties have prepared their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) can significantly slow down the progress toward limiting global warming below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In the meantime, calls for scientists to provide ‘usable’ information are increasing and the importance of close collaboration between scientists, end-users, and stakeholders is also increasingly acknowledged. In this article we make explicit the process and research challenges faced during what was, in the authors’ opinion, the successful collaboration among scientists, governmental, and private institutions that led to the formulation of an essential component of the Colombian NDC. As policy makers move forward with the implementation of their plans and as scientists become increasingly engaged with government planning, it is essential that they are aware of the needs and demands in terms of collaborations, data, resources, and type of results necessary to produce analyses that can be made fully public and can withstand international scrutiny.

The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.

The Paris Agreement on climate change recognises the central role of forests in achieving the well-below 2 °C goal through mitigation options covered by the REDD+ mechanism. Moreover, the actions that a country intends to take to address climate change under the new treaty are translated through the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). In this context, Brazil included REDD+ in its NDC submitted to the UNFCCC. Here, an overview of Brazil’s NDC is provided; focusing on its relation to the forest scope. Likewise, a discussion on the implications for the REDD+ governance framework in supporting the NDC compliance process is presented. Ultimately, it is argued that the goals announced in the country’s NDC can be considered unpretentious, and a paradox to the conservation approach. Brazil is not keeping up the momentum of accepting the importance of the driving role of forests along with other sectors for the accomplishment of its NDC. For instance, this can be clearly noticed by the flexibilisation of the forest national legislation adopted in 2012. On the other hand, the country has the potential to contribute more than the announced targets in the attempt to limit expected global warming. However, even to achieve the current established targets, the government must better engage in public policies to leverage and change the country’s course of development, which is still characterised by the dichotomy ‘development versus environmental conservation’.

Nepal first submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) in 2016 under the Paris Agreement (PA) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are climate action plans that a country commits to at the international level to address climate change. The implementation of country’s NDCs and the achievement of its goals are growing concerns among policymakers and negotiators. We review and analyze Nepal’s NDCs trajectory by comparing four key submissions: the INDC (February 11, 2016), the first NDC (October 5, 2016), second NDC (December 8, 2020) and the NDC3.0 (May 19, 2025). A systematic comparative analysis of the NDCs of Nepal shows a progressive increase in its ambition, sectoral coverage, quantification of mitigation targets, integrating adaptation strategies, stakeholder involvement, budget size, and transparency, but challenges remain in terms of its implementation capacity, financing, and long-term sustainability. This article provides a summary into Nepal’s climate commitments for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners.

BackgroundThe Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Thailand intends to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20 to 25% from the projected business as usual level by 2030 with the deployment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency improvement measures in both the supply and demand sectors. However, in order to contribute towards meeting the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to stay well below 2 °C, ambitious mitigation efforts beyond 2030 are needed. As such, it is necessary to assess the effects of imposing more stringent long-term GHG reduction targets in Thailand beyond the NDC commitment.MethodsThis paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of limiting the GHG emissions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on Thailand’s economy during 2010 to 2050. Besides the business as usual (BAU) scenario, this study assesses the macroeconomic effects of ten low to medium GHG mitigation scenarios under varying GHG reduction targets of 20 to 50%. In addition, this study also assesses three different peak emission scenarios, each targeting a GHG reduction of up to 90% by 2050, to analyze the feasibility of zero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as considered in the Paris Agreement.ResultsAccording to the BAU scenario, the GHG emissions from the electricity, industry, and transport sectors would remain the most prominent throughout the planning period. The modeling results indicate that the medium to peak emission reduction scenarios could result in a serious GDP loss compared to the BAU scenario, and therefore, the attainment of such mitigation targets could be very challenging for Thailand. Results suggest that the development and deployment of energy-efficient and renewable energy-based technologies would play a significant role not only in minimizing the GHG emissions but also for overcoming the macroeconomic loss and lowering the price of GHG emissions.ConclusionsThe results reveal that without a transformative change in the economic structure and energy system of Thailand, the country would have to face enormous cost in reducing its GHG emissions.

In order to achieve target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as those proposed by each country by nationally determined contributions (NDCs), GHG emission projections are receiving attention around the world. Generally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to estimate future GHG emissions considering both economic structure and final energy consumption. However, these models usually do not consider the entire supply chain, because of differences in the aims of application. In contrast, life cycle assessment (LCA) considers the entire supply chain but does not cover future environmental impacts. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the national carbon footprint projection in Japan based on life cycle thinking and IAMs, using the advantages of each. A future input–output table was developed using the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM)/computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Japan) developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). In this study, we collected the fundamental data using LCA databases and estimated future GHG emissions based on production-based and consumption-based approaches considering supply chains among industrial sectors. We targeted fiscal year (FY) 2030 because the Japanese government set a goal for GHG emissions in 2030 in its NDC report. Accordingly, we set three scenarios: FY2005 (business as usual (BAU)), FY2030 (BAU), and FY2030 (NDC). As a result, the carbon footprint (CFP) in FY2030 will be approximately 1097 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq), which is 28.5% lower than in FY2005. The main driver of this reduction is a shift in energy use, such as the introduction of renewable energy. According to the results, the CFP from the consumption side, fuel combustion in the use stage, transport and postal services, and electricity influence the total CFP, while results of the production side showed the CFP of the energy and material sectors, such as iron and steel and transport, will have an impact on the total CFP. Moreover, carbon productivity will gradually increase and FY2030 (NDC) carbon productivity will be higher than the other two cases.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty aimed at protecting the environment at both national and global levels by reducing the use of non-renewable energy and replacing it with renewable energy sources that efficiently minimise carbon emissions in the atmosphere. The framework of this agreement emphasises limiting global warming to below 2°C, with efforts to further restrict it to 1.5°C. To achieve this, each country is required to develop strategies for implementing its commitments, which are outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) as a guiding document for energy transition policies. Sweden, as a comparative country in this study, has not only implemented climate regulations but also adopted a strategy incorporating the energy trilemma concept, which balances fairness, security, and sustainability. This approach has positioned Sweden as a leading country in terms of energy system performance and preparedness. This research aims to analyze the regulatory framework of energy transition in achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets toward a low-emission future in Indonesia, and to explore and formulate an ideal regulatory model for energy transition to support the attainment of these targets. In contrast, Indonesia needs establish more explicit climate-related regulations similar to those in Sweden to enhance its energy transition efforts. This study employs a juridical research method, using statutory, comparative, and conceptual approaches. The research findings lead to recommendations for reformulating policies into a comprehensive climate change regulation in Indonesia. This proposed regulation should incorporate the energy trilemma concept and include essential components such as general provisions, objectives, the scope of climate change policies, implementation plans, governance frameworks, steering committees and responsible institutions, public participation, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, and enforcement measures. By establishing a structured legal framework, Indonesia can developan effective and enforceable climate change policy that supports its energy transition goals.

India needs to address the immediate concerns of water supply and demand, due to its increasing population, rapid urbanization, and growing industrialization. Additionally, the changing climate will influence water resources, which will subsequently impact the overall sectoral end-use demand patterns. In this study, we have integrated a water module with the existing bottom-up, techno-economic Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/End-use energy system model for India to estimate the future water demand in major end-use sectors under business-as-usual (BAU), nationally determined contribution (NDC), and low-carbon futures (2 °C and ‘well below 2 °C’) up to 2050. We also simulate the effects of water constraints on major sectors under different climate-change regimes. Our results show that water-intensive end-use sectors, specifically agriculture and power, will face major impacts under water-constrained scenarios. Over the period between 2020 and 2050, policy measures taken under the NDC scenario can cumulatively save up to 14 6 63.7% of the 2000 annual water demand or 2.5% of the 2015 annual water demand. billion cubic metres (bcm) of water, while low-carbon scenarios can save 20–21 bcm of water between 2020 and 2050, compared with BAU. In a water-constrained future, NDC and low-carbon futures can save 28–30 bcm of water. There is a need to increase the current water supply by 200–400 bcm. The marginal cost of installing dry cooling systems in the power sector is considerably higher than the cost and benefits of installing micro-irrigation systems with solar PV. Integrated policy coherence is required to achieve sustainable development goals, e.g., NDC and Paris Agreement goals, in both water and energy sectors. Concurrently, regulatory and economic instruments will play an essential role in improving resource-use efficiency at a systemic level, to reduce the overall water demand.

This study examines China’s utilization of the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) Principle to justify its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. As the world’s largest carbon emitter and a major economic power, China faces mounting international pressure to undertake ambitious climate commitments, especially after its NDCs are evaluated as ‘insufficient’ in meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C goal. Through the Constructivist lens of International Regime Theory, this study explores how China uses the role of identity to institutionalize CBDR-RC in the Paris Agreement, where China uses its type identity as a developing nation and role identity as the leader of the Global South to shape climate negotiations; it also forms a collective identity with the Global South countries through alliances to promote the institutionalisation of the CBDR-RC principle. Using the methods of Political Discourse Analysis and Process Tracing, this study highlights China’s active role in institutionalizing CBDR-RC in the Paris Agreement to ensure the rights to differentiated climate obligations and preferential treatment for developing nations in the climate regime, which ultimately allows China to justify its NDCs under the CBDR-RC principle through the logic of appropriateness.

The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times, using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress vis-à-vis this goal. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries’ agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors for numerous reasons, inter alia: the need to balance mitigation of difficult-to-abate agricultural emissions against food security; agriculture emissions of methane do not need to be reduced to zero to achieve climate stabilisation; land use should be a large net sink globally to offset residual emissions. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMS) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale, using the example of Ireland where 34 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Back-casting approach of Livestock Intensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations in 2050 within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields and forest growth rates). Based on AFOLU emission factors used for national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN then calculates annual GHG emissions out to 2050 for each scenario. The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120, so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of this century. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of this biophysical model intended to provide robust evidence on the biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions and carbon sinks at national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

Combating climate change requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities and enhancing carbon dioxide removal (CDR) through blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs). Progress is measured by international reporting of national GHG inventories under the UNFCCC, following IPCC guidelines. The EU Green Deal, particularly the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2030, recognizes BCEs’ potential by advocating for the restoration of carbon-rich habitats. However, the IPCC Wetlands Supplement is underutilized in national GHG reporting, and few countries, especially in Europe, include blue carbon in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This is due to limited awareness, the non-mandatory nature of the IPCC Wetlands Supplement, and data gaps. Our research aims to advance blue carbon knowledge, promoting BCEs as nature-based solutions, and addressing key gaps and scientific uncertainties to improve quantification and reporting of blue carbon under the UNFCCC in GHG inventory reporting under the Paris Agreement. The C-BLUES project, part of the Joint EU-China Flagship Initiative on Climate Change &amp; Biodiversity, seeks to enhance the IPCC Wetlands Supplement, increase BCE inclusion in national GHG inventories, and explore additional BCEs like natural and farmed kelp systems. We document best practices for monitoring and verifying BCE actions, model BCE sequestration capacity, and upscale GHG budgets to estimate BCE contributions to EU and Chinese inventories. We assess carbon stock changes, GHG emissions, and removals from various management interventions, and evaluate the integration of BCEs into national reporting mechanisms. We present a roadmap and invite participation with the scientific community, policy makers and the wider civil society to generate knowledge, raise awareness of BCEs and build capacity for BC research, as well as provide guidance on voluntary reporting on BCE.