Evolving Commitments: A Comparative Analysis of Nepal’s Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACTThe 2015 Paris Agreement was adopted at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the run-up to COP 21, most UNFCCC Parties put forward intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), containing mitigation pledges. These INDCs are now being confirmed as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as governments formally ratify the Paris Agreement. NDCs are supposed to provide transparent, quantifiable, comparable, and verifiable mitigation objectives. However, there is neither methodological nor data consistency in the way Parties have prepared their NDCs. This article showcases recent collaboration among research, government, and private institutions that contributed to the Colombian NDC. While documenting the novel research, data, and rich web of collaboration that helped the Colombian government prepare the country’s NDC, this article links this specific case with the challenges of policy-oriented and interactive models of research. Our experience confirms previous research on the importance of stakeholder interaction, transparency and openness of processes, and willingness to break disciplinary and institutional barriers. In addition, the experience points to the importance of having appropriate available resources and a local institution acting as champion for the project.POLICY RELEVANCEThe lack of methodological and data consistency in the way parties have prepared their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) can significantly slow down the progress toward limiting global warming below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In the meantime, calls for scientists to provide ‘usable’ information are increasing and the importance of close collaboration between scientists, end-users, and stakeholders is also increasingly acknowledged. In this article we make explicit the process and research challenges faced during what was, in the authors’ opinion, the successful collaboration among scientists, governmental, and private institutions that led to the formulation of an essential component of the Colombian NDC. As policy makers move forward with the implementation of their plans and as scientists become increasingly engaged with government planning, it is essential that they are aware of the needs and demands in terms of collaborations, data, resources, and type of results necessary to produce analyses that can be made fully public and can withstand international scrutiny.

Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

Climate change mitigation strategies for agriculture: an analysis of nationally determined contributions, biennial reports and biennial update reports

The Paris Agreement on climate change recognises the central role of forests in achieving the well-below 2 °C goal through mitigation options covered by the REDD+ mechanism. Moreover, the actions that a country intends to take to address climate change under the new treaty are translated through the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). In this context, Brazil included REDD+ in its NDC submitted to the UNFCCC. Here, an overview of Brazil’s NDC is provided; focusing on its relation to the forest scope. Likewise, a discussion on the implications for the REDD+ governance framework in supporting the NDC compliance process is presented. Ultimately, it is argued that the goals announced in the country’s NDC can be considered unpretentious, and a paradox to the conservation approach. Brazil is not keeping up the momentum of accepting the importance of the driving role of forests along with other sectors for the accomplishment of its NDC. For instance, this can be clearly noticed by the flexibilisation of the forest national legislation adopted in 2012. On the other hand, the country has the potential to contribute more than the announced targets in the attempt to limit expected global warming. However, even to achieve the current established targets, the government must better engage in public policies to leverage and change the country’s course of development, which is still characterised by the dichotomy ‘development versus environmental conservation’.

Global warming resulting from the emission of greenhouse gases has received widespread environment and energy attention in the recent years. Among these greenhouse gases, CO2 contributes over 60% to global warming due to its huge emission amount over 30 Gt CO2 a year. Global CO2 concentrations just passed 400 ppm in March 2015, which is significantly higher than the preindustrial level of about 300 ppm. To mitigate global warming, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was open for signature of the treaty with the goal of “preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with Earth’s climate system” and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” The parties to UNFCCC have met annually from 1995 in Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to assess progress in achieving the treaty’s aims. In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was declared and bound under international law, which urged 37 industrialized nations and European Union to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to a level of 5.2% on average lower than those of 1990 during the period of 2008–2012. However, the reduction targets are not achieved and the Kyoto Protocol is therefore extended to 2020. The Copenhagen Accord in 2009 also requests the global temperature increase be limited to 2°C above the preindustrial level by 2100. In 2015, the Paris Agreement was proposed in COP21, aiming at limiting global warming to less than 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the rise to 1.5°C. In addition, the experts will review the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) proposed by all parties and ask the developed countries to assist the developing countries by supporting of funding and technologies, if the Paris Agreement will be effective in 2018.

The Paris Agreementʼs nationally determined contributions (NDCs) provide an excellent point of entry to simultaneously address climate change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study sets out to explore the connections between climate action plans (NDCs) and each of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this study, we used four levels of visibility, that is, present, generic, implied and absent to provide a broad perspective of the extent to which South Africaʼs NDC is aligned with the targets of the SDGs. Our results revealed that South Africaʼs NDC has 12% present level of visibility to the SDG targets, with SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy and SDG 13 Climate Action showing the highest representation of present level of visibility. By contrast, the absent level of visibility NDC showed 53% in the SDG targets, with SDG 5 Gender Equity, SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions and SDG 3 Good Health and Well‐Being, showing the highest representation of absent level of visibility. These results indicate that there is scope to improve the alignment of South Africaʼs NDCs with the SDG targets. To this end, we have identified areas that may benefit with further elaboration in the countryʼs second NDC.

The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and the global response to it will co-determine the future of climate policy. The recovery packages responding to the impacts of the pandemic may either help to chart a new sustainable course, or they will further cement existing high-emission pathways and thwart the achievement of the Paris Agreement objectives. This article discusses how international climate governance may help align the recovery packages with the climate agenda. For this purpose, the article investigates five key governance functions through which international institutions may contribute: send guidance and signals, establish rules and standards, provide transparency and accountability, organize the provision of means of implementation, and promote collective learning. Reflecting on these functions, the article finds that the process under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), together with other international institutions, could promote sustainable recovery in several ways. Key policy insights The incoming UK presidency of the Conference of the Parties (COP) should urge Parties to present transformative sustainable stimulus packages alongside more ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) at the postponed Glasgow Climate Conference (COP 26). Specific principles and criteria for sustainable recovery should be adopted. A coalition of interested governments should work through institutions such as G20 to enable swift action even before COP 26. The Glasgow Conference should establish a process to review the consistency of recovery packages with the Paris Agreement and their implementation, to support their sustainability and promote policy learning. Developed countries and international financial institutions should renew their climate finance commitments, and work towards an increased long-term finance objective in the context of greening recovery packages. At COP 26 governments could take stock of the ‘Paris-compatibility’ of international recovery support and adopt further guidance as necessary.

<sec><p indent="0mm">The Paris Agreement has set the goal of limiting the global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels and established a process for global carbon stocktaking which will take place every five years starting from 2023. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015. Under the Paris Agreement, each country is required to present its NDCs report using the standard ‘bottom-up’ inventory approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 49th session of IPCC has suggested a ‘top-down’ inversion approach to assess NDCs using measurements of atmospheric Green House Gases (GHGs). Satellite remote sensing can measure the atmospheric GHG concentration at global scale with fine resolution, high accuracy and high frequency, providing a promising tool to validate each country’s NDCs. The European Union, the United States, Japan, and Canada are vigorously developing their satellite systems for monitoring GHGs’ concentrations and emissions. China is also planning to build a GHGs monitoring satellite system to support the second carbon stocktaking in 2028. Therefore, it is extremely urgent to review and investigate the techniques, methods and cutting-edge applications of remote sensing for GHGs monitoring and stocktaking. </sec><sec> In this paper, we first reviewed the current techniques, networks, and upcoming national or international plans for monitoring atmospheric GHGs based on ground-based, airborne, and satellite platforms. The global carbon stocktaking requires continuous and accurate observations of GHGs’ concentrations and fluxes from ground, tower-based, airborne, and spaceborne platforms. The World Meteorological Congress (WMO) approved an ambitious international project, named the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W) initiative to address key information gaps in our understanding of anthropic and natural activities on the global carbon cycle, and help parties assess the completion of GST reports. Second, we proposed the key features of the next generation carbon monitoring satellite system, which was characterized by high spatial resolution, high accuracy, high temporal frequency, and multiple gases as well as atmospheric aerosol and co-emitted polluted gases (NO₂, CO). However, it is still challenging to meet the strict accuracy requirements for the atmospheric GHGs’ concentrations, such as <sc>1 ppm</sc> for CO₂, 5 ppb for CH₄, and 1 ppb for N₂O. China’s next-generation carbon satellite is to be launched in 2026, which will greatly enhance observation capabilities, including GHG species, accuracy, time frequency and spatial resolution. Third, taking the Global Carbon Project (GCP) series of assessment reports as the core references, we summarized the current methods, progress and challenges in the scientific assessment of GHGs’ emissions at global or regional scales. We also investigated the roles and current capabilities of satellite remote sensing and assimilation inversion technology in monitoring emissions of the three major greenhouse gases: CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O. At present, there are large uncertainties among the estimated GHGs’ fluxes (both emissions and sinks) due to very limited observations, model accuracy, and coarse resolution of assimilation systems etc. Finally, we investigated China’s demand for GHGs monitoring and emission assessment, and proposed three urgent tasks for global carbon stocktaking using the ‘top-down’ remote sensing method. These tasks include developing a satellite constellation for high-precision GHGs observation, a high-resolution, multi-species global GHG assimilation system, and an operational platform to assess global GHG emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, this paper, focusing on the needs of compliance with climate change and the “dual-carbon” targets, provides ideas for the construction of China’s next generation carbon-sensing satellite system. </sec>

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

During Paris Agreement, a historic climate landmark signed in Paris in 2015, leaders of about 200 countries committed to limiting global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C by 2100. Each Country defined its commitments as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Egypt, with only 0.6% contribution to global emissions, is badly susceptible to climate change. Egypt submitted its NDCs in 2017 to be activated in 2020. Egypt’s NDCs are too general and does not provide quantified targets nor plans for emission reductions. Moreover, Egypt’s NDCs are conditional on receiving international funding of 73 Billion Dollars. This paper reviews Egypt’s NDC to assess its true level of importance and to display Egypt’s long-standing commitment to climate change efforts. Actions include reshaping the energy mix for electricity generation from (92% oil & gas and 8% hydroelectric & renewables) to (60% natural gas with combined cycle, 35% renewables & hydro and 5% nuclear energy). In transport sector, fuel switching from oil to gas and promotion of electric vehicles can lead to at least 10% emission reduction in transport sector. Energy efficiency in industry, achieved by promoting high efficient motors, variable speed drives, waste heat recovery and replacing fluorinated refrigerants, can lead to a similar reduction in industry sector. Replacing inefficient lighting with LEDs, together with the use of energy efficient appliances, air conditioners and installing solar panels can lead to similar reduction in the building sector. These actions can be done with local resources besides firmly applying environmental regulations. It shows that a target of reducing CO2 emissions by 20% from current emissions of 250 MtCO2 emissions by 2030 is possible. International funding is required for adaptation to the results of climate changes. The required technical and financial support for such adaptation needs extensive studies.

This study examines China’s utilization of the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) Principle to justify its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. As the world’s largest carbon emitter and a major economic power, China faces mounting international pressure to undertake ambitious climate commitments, especially after its NDCs are evaluated as ‘insufficient’ in meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C goal. Through the Constructivist lens of International Regime Theory, this study explores how China uses the role of identity to institutionalize CBDR-RC in the Paris Agreement, where China uses its type identity as a developing nation and role identity as the leader of the Global South to shape climate negotiations; it also forms a collective identity with the Global South countries through alliances to promote the institutionalisation of the CBDR-RC principle. Using the methods of Political Discourse Analysis and Process Tracing, this study highlights China’s active role in institutionalizing CBDR-RC in the Paris Agreement to ensure the rights to differentiated climate obligations and preferential treatment for developing nations in the climate regime, which ultimately allows China to justify its NDCs under the CBDR-RC principle through the logic of appropriateness.

To be effective and secure participation, a global climate change agreement needs to be perceived as fair by the countries involved in it. The Paris Agreement approached differentiation of countries’ responsibilities to address climate change by departing from the rigid distinction between industrialised and developing countries through the inclusion of ‘subtle differentiation’ of specific subsets of countries (e.g., Least Developed Countries) for certain substantive issues (e.g., climate finance) and/or for specific procedures (e.g., timelines and reporting). In this article, we analyse whether the self-differentiation countries followed when formulating their own climate plans, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s subtle differentiation. We find that there is consistency for mitigation and adaptation, but not for support (climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building). As NDCs are the main instrument for achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals, this inconsistency needs to be addressed to allow subsequent rounds of NDCs to be more ambitious.

A transparency framework has been enhanced under the Paris Agreement. Developing countries need to develop the capacity to regularly update national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, thereby tracking progress toward climate change mitigation goals under their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Although much study in recent years has been focused on the challenges faced by developing countries in building the long-term institutional capabilities required for more frequent inventory reporting, little work has been done to analyze the institutional linkage between the national GHG inventories and NDCs in the respective countries. Against this backdrop, we examined the cases of Vietnam and the Philippines. Through desktop reviews and a series of interviews conducted in 2018, the present study characterized their institutional designs for the national GHG inventory. It also evaluated observed outcomes of institutional performance in the following dimensions: (1) the frequency and quality of national GHG inventory reporting and (2) the effectiveness of the national GHG inventory at informing the process to formulate mitigation actions under NDCs. The study found that there are differences in performance outcomes between the two countries, which may be linked to the differences in institutional designs. It also found potential trade-offs: A good performance outcome in one dimension may not necessarily translate into a similar result in the other. The findings have implications for transparency-related capacity building assistance: A sound understanding of institutional arrangements and their potential consequences is important for development partners to facilitate the interplay between the national GHG inventory and NDCs in developing countries.

Transparency requirements under the Paris Agreement and their (un)likely impact on strengthening the ambition of nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

During the past years, the impact of climate change in Latin America has become more evident. It is affecting its natural resources and delaying sustainable development. Achieving the 1.5 °C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement while ensuring the right to sustainable development is of particular interest to regions with high vulnerability and low adaptation capacity for climate change, such as Latin America. This article analyzes whether the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted within the Paris Agreement framework by Latin American countries align with achieving the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the global carbon budget from 2020 onwards, compatible with the 1.5 °C global temperature scenario, is distributed among countries using two dimensions of equity (equality and historical responsibility). Then, the carbon budget allocated to Latin American countries is compared with the cumulative emissions implied in two scenarios. The first one is the NDC scenario that assumes the implementation of the NDCs submitted until December 31, 2022. The second scenario adds the goal of ending deforestation by 2030, signed by several countries of this region in the Global Leaders Declaration on Forest. Two main conclusions are obtained from the analysis of the cited scenarios. First, Latin American countries will consume 77% of their carbon budget in 2030 by implementing their NDCs. Second, this percentage could be reduced to 58% if Latin American countries reach zero emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry sector by 2030. If achieved, the region would be on track to reach the 1.5 °C global goal.