China as an Integrated Area?

In the context of fierce competition, oversupply and constantly declining demand the industrial policy automotive engineering enterprises require better coordination with the trade policy. Consequently, there is an urgent need for the formation of the system of harmonization of industrial and trade policies, that it gets the requirements of consumers, on the one hand, and the development of an effective strategy for promoting goods on the market, on the other. The article discusses a point of view on the subject of coordination of the industrial and trade policies in the context of harmonization, describes the essence and the content of harmonization based on tiered organization of the national economy and positioning the industry of automobile engineering, summarizes the main conditions that accompany the process of harmonization of the industrial and trade policies, defined the main areas of harmonization of the sectoral policies, which have been the basis for the formation mechanism balanced trade and industrial policies of enterprises.

Проблема гармонизации промышленной и торговой политики является актуальной для каждой из стран, в особенности для стран, экономическое положение которых зависит от добычи нефти. Усилия Исламской Республики Иран в большей степени направлены на нефтяную промышленность, что препятствует формированию благоприятной среды для функционирования экономических субъектов, задействованных, например, в отраслях машиностроения, текстильной промышленности и торговле. Таким образом, на основе выполненного анализа научных работ, нормативно-правовых и иных документов Ирана выявлена необходимость формирования концептуальной модели гармонизации промышленности и торговли в Республике. Целью исследования является разработка концептуальной модели гармонизации отраслевых интересов в государственной политике Ирана (на примере торговой и промышленной политики). Объектом исследования является социально-экономическая система Ирана. Источниками информации послужили официальные документы и отчеты, опубликованные Министерством промышленности, горнодобывающей промышленности и торговли Ирана, Всемирным банком, Статистическим центром Ирана и Организацией планирования и бюджета Ирана. Анализ статистических данных позволил выявить дихотомию на промышленных предприятиях Республики, а также сильную зависимость экономики от нефтяных доходов страны. Раскрыты основные тенденции развития промышленного сектора на основе Протокола заседания коллегии Министерства промышленности, горнодобывающей промышленности и торговли Ирана в 2019 г. В результате исследования предложена концептуальная модель гармонизации, в состав которой входят базовые элементы, влияющие на формирование и реализацию торговой и промышленной политики, а также предопределяющие набор и содержание элементов других уровней модели; цель, компоненты и условия, обусловливающие эффективное функционирование модели. Сделан вывод: достижение гармонизации на примере промышленности и торговли осуществимо в условиях применения концептуального подхода, подразумевающего тесную взаимосвязь объектов (организации в сфере промышленности и торговли), принципов (отражающих менталитет населения Ирана и его государственную идеологию), компонентов (содержательный, методический, организационный, оценочно-результативный) и условий (внутренние и внешние) модели. Установлено, что частный сектор не принимает участия в формировании промышленной политики Республики. Выявлена нецелесообразность современной торговой политики, направленной на реализацию нефтяной базы. Таким образом, необходима трансформация действующих промышленных и торговых программ развития. The problem of harmonization of industrial and trade policies is relevant for each country, especially for countries whose economic situation depends on oil production. The efforts of the State of Iran are more focused on the oil industry, which prevents the formation of a favorable environment for the functioning of economic entities in other spheres, for example, in the fields of mechanical engineering, textile industry and trade. Thus, on the basis of the analysis of scientific works, regulatory and other documents of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the need for the formation of a conceptual model for the harmonization of industry and trade in the Republic is revealed. The aim of the study is to develop a conceptual model of harmonization of sectoral interests in the state policy of Iran (on the example of trade and industrial policy). The object of the study is the socio-economic system of Iran. The sources of information were official documents and reports published by the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade of Iran, the World Bank, the Statistical Center of Iran and the Planning and Budget Organization of Iran. The analysis of statistical data revealed a dichotomy in the industrial enterprises of the Republic, as well as a strong dependence of the economy on the country’s oil revenues. The main trends in the development of the industrial sector are revealed on the basis of the Minutes of the meeting of the Board of the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade of Iran in 2019. As a result of the study, a conceptual model of harmonization is proposed, which includes basic elements that affect the formation and implementation of trade and industrial policy, as well as determining the set and content of elements of other levels of the model; the goal, components and conditions that determine the effective functioning of the model. It is concluded that achieving harmonization on the example of industry and trade is feasible in the context of applying a conceptual approach that implies a close relationship between objects (organizations in the field of industry and trade), principles (reflecting the mentality of the Iranian population and its state ideology), components (content, methodological, organizational, evaluative and effective) and conditions (internal and external) of the model. It is established that the private sector does not take part in the formation of the industrial policy of the Republic. The inexpediency of the modern trade policy aimed at the implementation of the oil base is revealed. Thus, it is necessary to transform the existing industrial and trade development programs.

International trade agreements increasingly constrain the ability of governments to use trade policies. Fewer international constraints apply to the use of investment policies, although there is discussion about negotiating such disciplines both regionally and multilaterally. Since firms compete in foreign markets via both exports and foreign direct investment(FDI), the following question arises: can constraints on the use of only one type of policy (trade or FDI) induce firms to adopt inefficient modes of supply when serving foreign markets? We address this question in a model in which a local and a foreign firm compete in the domestic market. In the model, the domestic government's trade and/or FDI policies as well as the foreign firm's choice between exports and FDI are endogenous. We show that even if the domestic government is constrained only in its ability to use trade (FDI) policy, and is free to set its FDI (trade) policy, the foreign firm chooses the efficient mode of supply. The key point is that it is never in the interest of the domestic government to set policies in a manner that leads the foreign firm to adopt an inefficient mode of supply.

Like Chapter 3, this is a scene setting chapter. In Chapter 3 we provide an overview of the links between trade policy and economic development, paying particular attention to the influences that have shaped particular strategies. In this chapter we review in a functional manner the economic effects of a range of instruments of trade and industrial policy. It should be emphasised at the outset that the aim is not to provide a ‘ready reckoner’ of analyses of different instruments. In the context of the present volume that would be both over-ambitious and in fact unnecessary. There are many texts devoted entirely to the microeconomics of commercial policy. As we emphasised in the introduction, this is a book devoted to applied aspects of commercial policy analysis and a basic familiarity with the microeconomics of alternative forms of intervention will therefore be assumed. Our intention in this chapter is simply to offer a brief refresher on the material by way of background.

Two macroeconomic policies that have impacted on Nigerias manufacturing industry are trade and exchange rate policies. From 1981 to 2022, this study looked at the connection between Nigerias real industrial production, exchange rate, and trade policy. Real manufacturing GDP served as a stand-in for real manufacturing output, and explanatory variables similar to the exchange rate, per capita income, monetary policy rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, import to export ratio, and dummy variables for structural adjustment were employed. The model was analyzed in the research by means of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The outcomes showed that while exports as a ratio of gross domestic product (EXGDP). Significantly boosted real manufacturing output (RMO) both in the near and distant future times. Imports as a ratio of gross domestic product (IMGDP) had a negative impact on RMO. Trade liberalization by DSAP had a significant benefit on actual manufacturing production over the long run, while it had a minimally positive impact on RMO during the near term. The rate of exchange has a short-term favorable influence on RMO but a long-term negative one. To increase manufacturing output, the federal government of Nigeria should align its trade policy with the export promotion industrialization plan. KEYWORDS: Trade Policy, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Manufacturing Output, ARDL, Nigeria.

A disparity exists between mainstream perception and reality with regard to American economic history. There is widespread belief among the public, media, and even some scholars that the U.S. amassed its wealth and prosperity from the adoption of exclusively free-market principles from the onset of the union. This is far from reality. Since 1980, the U.S. government has adopted policies that largely support the free-market ideology and can be classified as neoliberal. However, As Chang (2002) and Cohen and DeLong (2016) have shown, during the early stages of economic development and critical junctures whilst a middle-income country, the U.S. record is one of active government intervention in targeted industries, the creation of important institutions to complement free-market competition, and the widespread use of trade protection in support of infant industries. This misconception has significant ramifications for present-day developing countries, which are routinely advised to adopt neoliberal policies with insufficient regard for the idiosyncratic stage of economic development. This paper documents the misconceptions by examining the theoretical basis and historical record of U.S. industrial and trade policy. We detail how this misconception became widespread and ultimately entered policymaking by analyzing two contributing factors: the rise of neoliberalism, and the standard economics curriculum.

Industry and Trade in Some Developing Countries. A Comparative Study. By Ian Little, Tibor Scitovsky and Maurice Scott. Published an behalf of the O.E.C.D., Paris, by Oxford University Press, London. 1970. Pp. xxii+488, and index. £4.50 (boards) and £2 (paper). India, Planning for Industrialization. Industrialization and Trade Policies since 1951. By Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Padma Desai. Published on behalf of the O.E.C.D., Paris, by Oxford University Press, London. 1970. Pp. xx+500, and index. £6.50 (boards) and £2.50 (paper). Pakistan, Industriealization and Trade Policies. By Stephen R. Lewis, Jnr. Published on behalf of the O.E.C.D., Paris, by Oxford University Press, London. 1970. Pp. xvii+198, and index. £2.75 (boards) and £1.25 (paper). Brazil: Industrialization and Trade Policies. By Joel Bergsman. Published on behalf of the O.E.C.D., Paris, by Oxford University Press, London. 1970. Pp. xiv, 281. Index. £2.75 (cloth) and £1.75 (paper). Mexico. Industrialization and Trade Policies Since 1940. By Timothy King. Published on behalf of O.E.C.D., Paris, by Oxford University Press, London. 1970. Pp. xi, 160. Index. £2 (cloth and 75p (paper). The Philippines: Industrialization and Trade Policies. By John H. Power and Gerardo P. Sicat, and Taiwan: Industrialization and Trade Policies. By Mo‐Huan Hsing. Published on behalf of the O.E.C.D., Paris, by the Oxford University Pres.; London. 1971. Pp. 324. Indices. Hard cover £4.00; Paper £2.25. Towards Full Employment: A Programme for Colombia. Prepared by an inter‐agency team organized by the International Labour Office. I.L.O., Geneva. 1970. Pp. viii, 47]. No index. £1.60. Rwanda and Burundi. By Rene Lemarchand. London, Pall Mall Library of African Affairs. 1970. Pp. 562. £5.25. Financing Development in Latin America. Edited by Keith Griffin. Macmillan, London. 1971. Pp. ix, 261. Index. £4.50. Student Politics in Chile. By Frank Bonilla and Myron Glazer. New York and London, Basic Books. 1970. Pp. xi, 367. $8.50. The Crisis of Indian Planning. Edited by Paul Streeten and Michael Lipton. ‘Issued under the auspices of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Oxford University Press, London. 1968. Pp. vii, 416. Index. £3.75. The Barrel of a Gur. Political Power in Africa and the Coup d'Etat. By Ruth First. Allen Lane The Penguin Press, London. 1970. Pp. 465. Index. £4.20. Partners in Development: Report of the Commission on International Development. By Lester B. Pearson, et al. Praeger, London and New York. 1969. Pp. xvi, 400. No index. $2.50. Andre Gunder Frank's Capitalism and Underdevelopment in Latin America: A COMMENT A REJOINDER NOTES ON THE 1970 DAR ES SALAAM CONFERENCE

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in relative commodity prices on the distribution of income among factors of production in the context of two models of a simple, two-good economy. In the first model capital is treated as a specific factor in each industry, with labor mobile between industries. The assumption of specificity determines the direction of factor income changes, with magnitudes depending on substitutability between factors and on intensities of factor use within the two industries. In the second model, capital is viewed as a quasi-fixed factor. For the short run, this model is identical to the model first considered. For the long run, this model is identical to the Stolper-Samuelson model in which the direction and magnitude of factor income changes depend solely on relative factor intensities. The difference between the short-run and long-run determinants of changes in factor incomes gives rise to a conflict between factor owners' short-run and long-run interests.

The present economic growth of India is largely an outcome of the liberalization of its economic policies in 1991. Since gaining independence in 1947, India adopted a “mixed economy” approach (emphasizing both private and public enterprise). This had the effect of reducing both entrepreneurship and global competitiveness. Despite the formalities of planning, the Indian economy reached its worst in 1990 and witnessed a double digit rate of inflation, decelerated industrial production, fiscal indiscipline, a very high ratio of borrowing to the GNP (both internal and external) and a dismally low level of foreign exchange reserves. The World Bank and the IMF agreed to bail out India at that time on the condition that it changed to a “free market economy” from what at the time was a regulated regime. To meet the challenges, the government announced a series of economic policies, followed by a new industrial policy supported by fiscal and trade policies. A number of reforms were made in the public sector that affected trade and exchange policy. At the same time, the banking sector together with activity in foreign investment was liberalized.

This article explores the relationship between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. Commodity price cycles are known to foster capricious macroeconomic activity, and understanding their behaviour offers valuable economic insight. The US business cycle is a key indicator of the broader economic conditions, reflecting changes in economic activity, consumer spending, and overall market conditions. By examining the dynamics and interplay between these two cycles, this study provides insights into the potential synchronisation, lag, or lead between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. The study employs a Fourier analysis of commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. In addition, the same empirical method will be used to analyse historical rainfall patterns in the US as a means of furthering the role of historical rainfall patterns in shaping agricultural productivity and subsequent price movements. Results show dominant cycles of 14.2 years throughout the commodity price dataset, 3.8 years within the US business cycle, and 14.2 years in US historical rainfall patterns. The study also identifies several factors that influence the relationship between these two cycles, including global demand, trade policies, and financial market fluctuations.

Trade Protection and Bureaucratic Corruption: An Empirical Investigation

The author examines the relationship between trade policies and macroeconomic adjustment in six Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico. For the period 1965-94, the six countries experienced 26 trade policy episodes: 11 tightening, and 15 loosening of trade policies. For the analysis, the author worked with four periods that coincided with diffreent prevailing exchange rate regimes: 1965-73, 1974-79, 1980-83 and 1984-04. Using a probit model, he examined the relationship between tightening and loosening trade policies and the current account balance, the exchange rate, and the growth in manufactured exports. His main conclusions: 1) experience in these six countries for 1965-94 confirmed the hypothesis that trade restrictions cannot solve current account problems; 2) for trade liberalization to work, there must be real devaluation either before or during liberalization. Reluctance to devalue, for one reason or another, may lead to trade restrictions. There is evidence that trade restrictions were used in lieu of devaluations during 1965-83. In 1984-94, however, the reluctance to devalue was overcome; 3) growth in manufactured exports helps maintain trade reform and release the economy from foreign exchange constraints. As expected, trade liberalization improved exports (liberalization reduces the bias against exports) while trade tightening hurt them; and 4) The impact of trade reform on the fiscal system cannot be predicted because tax revenues can go in either direction depending on initial conditions, the elasticity of supply in importable and exportable sectors, and the economy's growth rate.

Business cycle and inflation synchronisation in Mainland China and Hong Kong

China's national policy formulation undergone economic transformation and shaped the making of policies in promotion of private business and stock market regulation. China's distinctive process of central-local interaction in policy generation is one of its core strengths in reforming its economy.

The search for balanced, sustainable growth clearly involves the unwinding of large and persistent global imbalances. Much of the attention in the rebalancing debate has centred on how shifts in monetary and fiscal policies affect current account imbalances. This paper goes beyond macroeconomic management considerations and exchange rate realignments to assess how one type of structural policy reform – namely trade and trade-related policy reforms – may facilitate global rebalancing. In addition, the paper analyses how might various rebalancing scenarios, even if they do not explicitly include major trade policy reforms, impact global trade. Our analysis suggests that a co-ordinated response involving macroeconomic, exchange rate and structural reforms, including trade policy reforms, are needed to address imbalances in the global economy. Trade is a part of the solution since trade policy distortions reduce the benefits from trade and, through their effects on relative prices, jointly influence economic incentives on both the trade balance and net national savings sides of the national savings-investment identity. In particular, since some imbalances stem from the asymmetric pattern of remaining protectionism in goods and services sectors, a balanced approach to trade policy reform could facilitate the global adjustment process.