China’s carbon dioxide emission forecast based on improved marine predator algorithm and multi-kernel support vector regression

Energy-saving design is becoming a trending topic and top-priority over the past decades due to high energy costs, limited available resources and growing urban development. Buildings are alluded to as the major contributors of energy consumption and environmental emissions across the globe. This calls for the development of precise forecasting models of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Hence, this research paper harnesses the implementation of several contemporary metaheuristics to accurately project heating and cooling energy (HEN and CEN) in residential buildings. In this respect, black widow optimization, dandelion optimization, dingo optimization, sparrow search, and red-tailed hawk optimization are among the studied metaheuristics in this research study. The prediction accuracies of the developed models are assessed stepping on the measures of i) relative absolute error (RAE), ii) mean absolute error (MAE), iii) mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), iv) root mean squared error (RMSE) and v) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). It is shown that the developed red-tailed hawk optimization-based model succeeded in accomplishing the most precise results of HEN and CEN. In this context, it predicted HEN with RAE (0.201), MAE (1.838), MAPE (7.626%), RMSE (2.826), and NSE (0.921). Besides, it anticipated CEN with RAE (0.234), MAE (2.009), MAPE (7.519%), RMSE (3.246), and NSE (0.883). It can be argued that this research study could benefit architects and designers in creating more energy-efficient buildings at an early stage.

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

Evaluation of artificial neurocomputing algorithms and their metacognitive robustness in predictive modeling of fuel consumption rates during tillage

Under the dual pressures of global carbon emission reduction and production cost control, energy-intensive industrial enterprises are in urgent need of a balanced low-carbon operation strategy that reconciles economic benefits, environmental performance and production continuity. To address the limitations of existing methods in multi-dimensional objective balancing, this paper proposes a dynamic multi-objective optimization framework for industrial electricity consumption, integrating high-precision load forecasting and optimal scheduling. For load forecasting, an improved dual-gate optimization temporal attention long short-term memory (DGO-TA-LSTM) model is developed, which is modeled based on the one-year hourly electricity operation data (8760 samples) of a high-energy industrial enterprise in southern China, and its performance is verified via three standard metrics—the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)—compared with five mainstream baseline models. On this basis, when taking time-varying electricity-carbon factors and time-of-use electricity prices as dual guiding signals, a three-objective optimization model minimizing electricity cost, carbon emissions and load deviation is constructed, which is solved by the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with the Improved Gray Target Decision-Making (IGTD) method introduced to select the optimal compromise solution. Case study results show that the proposed scheme achieved a 1.9% reduction in electricity cost and a 30% reduction in carbon emissions compared with the unoptimized strategy, providing a feasible and scalable low-carbon operation path for industrial enterprises.

Compressive strength is an important mechanical property of high-strength concrete (HSC), but testing methods are usually uneconomical, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. To this end, in this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was proposed to predict the HSC compressive strength using 324 data sets with five input independent variables, namely water, cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate, and superplasticizer. The prediction results were compared with those of the conventional support vector regression (SVR) model using four metrics, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient (R2). The results showed that the prediction accuracy and reliability of LSTM were higher with R2 = 0.997, RMSE = 0.508, MAE = 0.08, and MAPE = 0.653 compared to the evaluation metrics R2 = 0.973, RMSE = 1.595, MAE = 0.312, MAPE = 2.469 of the SVR model. The LSTM model is recommended for the pre-estimation of HSC compressive strength under a given mix ratio before the laboratory compression test. Additionally, the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)-based approach was performed to analyze the relative importance and contribution of the input variables to the output compressive strength.

This article uses machine learning techniques as fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy ANFISs, to develop and compare prediction models capable of relating pregnant women’s exposure to air pollutants, such as Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter, the mother’s age, and the number of prenatal consultations to the incidence of premature birth. In the current literature, studies can be found that relate prematurity to the exposure of pregnant women to NO2, O3, and PM10; to Toluene and benzene, mainly in the window 5 to 10 days before birth; and to PM10 in the week before birth. Both models used logistic regression to quantify the effects of pollutants as a result of premature birth. Datasets from Brazil—Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (CETESB)—were used, covering the period from 2016 to 2018 and comprising women living in the city of São José dos Campos (SP), Brazil. In order to evaluate and compare the different techniques used, evaluation metrics were calculated, such as correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). These metrics are widely used in the literature due to their ability to evaluate the robustness and efficiency of prediction models. For the RMSE, MAPE, MSE, and MAE metrics, lower values indicate that prediction errors are smaller, demonstrating better model accuracy and confidence. In the case of (r) and R2, a positive and strong result indicates alignment and better performance between the real and predicted data. The neuro-fuzzy ANFIS model showed superior performance, with a correlation (r) of 0.59, R2 = 0.35, RMSE = 2.83, MAPE = 5.35%, MSE = 8.00, and MAE = 1.70, while the fuzzy model returned results of r = 0.20, R2 = 0.04, RMSE = 3.29, MSE = 10.81, MAPE = 6.67%, and MAE = 2.01. Therefore, the results from the ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system indicate greater prediction capacity and precision in relation to the fuzzy system. This superiority can be explained by integration with neural networks, allowing data learning and, consequently, more efficient modeling. In addition, the findings obtained in this study have potential for the formulation of public health policies aimed at reducing the number of premature births and promoting improvements in maternal and neonatal health.

The purposes are to analyze the safety and real-time performance of intelligent transportation under big data and solve urban transportation safety problems. The existing problems of complex traffic data collection and single factor analysis are analyzed. Guangzhou target road section and its historical traffic flow are taken as the data source, the big data analytics (BDA) platform is constructed after preprocessing, and then the deep belief network (DBN) is introduced to build the intelligent transportation model based on BDA. Finally, the model is simulated to analyze its performance. The results reveal that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the proposed algorithm are 4.42%, 6.21%, and 8.03%, respectively compared to Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Neuro fuzzy c-means model (FCM), Deep Neural Network (DNN), and neural network (NN). The mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are 4.42%, 6.21% and 8.03% respectively. The prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of other algorithms. The analysis of Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F1 suggests that the safety prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm can reach up to 88.57%, which is at least 3.19% higher than that of other algorithms. Meantime, the proposed algorithm can effectively inhibit the spread of congestion, and achieve the effect of timely evacuation for traffic congestion. Regarding the data transmission performance, the delay is less than 40ms and the packet loss rate is less than 0.1, which is significantly better than other model algorithms in real-time performance. Hence, the constructed intelligent transportation algorithm based on BDA has high precision and excellent congestion evacuation performance, which can provide an experimental basis for constructing intelligent and safe transportation in the future.

Research on the theoretical prediction method for surface movement duration considering the spatio-temporal subsidence characteristics

Drought is a complex and frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate drought forecasting is essential to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research has inferred the implication and the appropriateness of the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm for drought forecasting. For numerical evaluation, time series data of the Standardized Precipitating Temperature Index (SPTI) are used for nine meteorological stations located in various climatological zones of Pakistan. To assess the performance of ELM, this research includes parallel inferences of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The performance of each model is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Generally, graphical results illustrated an excellent performance of the ELM algorithm over MLP and ARIMA models. For training data of SPTI‐1, ELM’s best performance has observed at Chitral station (RMSE = 0.374, KGE = 0.838, WI = 0.960, MAE = 0.272, MAPE = 259.59, R = 0.93). For SPTI‐1 at Astore station, the numerical results are (RMSE = 0.688, KGE = 0.988, WI = 0.997, MAE = 0.798, MAPE = 247.35). The overall results indicate that the ELM outperformed by producing the smallest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values and maximum values for KGE, WI, and correlation coefficient values at almost all the selected meteorological stations for (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales. In summary, this research endorses the use of ELM for accurate drought forecasting.

Advances in industrial digital technologies have led to an increasing volume of data generated from industrial bioprocesses, which can be utilised within data-driven models (DDM). However, data volume and variability complications make developing models that captures the underlying biological nature of the bioprocesses challenging. In this study, a framework for developing data-driven models of bioprocesses is proposed and evaluated by modelling an industrial bioprocess, which treats industrial or agrifood wastewaters whilst simultaneously generating bioenergy. Six models were developed to predict the reduction in chemical oxygen demand from the wastewater by the bioprocess and statistically evaluated using both testing data (randomly partitioned data from the model development) and unseen data (new data not used during the model development). The statistical error metrics employed were the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The stacked neural network model was best able to model the bioprocess, having the highest accuracy on the testing data (R2: 0.98; RMSE: 1.29; MAE: 2.27; MAPE: 4.08) and the unseen data (R2: 0.82; RMSE: 2.57; MAE: 1.75; MAPE: 3.68). Data visualisation is used to observe (or confirm) whether new data points are within the model boundaries, helping to increase confidence in the model’s predictions on future data.

Tomatoes are among the world’s most significant vegetables, both in terms of production and consumption. Harvesting takes place in tomato production when the important quality attribute of total soluble solids content reaches its maximum possible level. Tomato total soluble solids content (TSS) is among the most crucial attribute parameters for assessing tomato quality and for tomato commercialization. Determination of total soluble solids content by conventional measurement methods is both destructive and time-consuming. Therefore, the tomato processing industry needs a rapid identification method to measure total soluble solids content (TSS). In this study, we aimed to estimate how much soluble solids there are in beef tomato fruit by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. The models were assessed using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. The training data set results of the MLR model established to estimate the amount of brix in tomato fruit, calculated as MAE: 0.2349, RMSE: 0.3048, R2: 0.8441, and MAPE: 5.5368, while, according to the ANN model, MAE: 0.0250, RMSE: 0.031, R2: 0.9982 and MAPE: 0.5814. According to the metric outcomes, the ANN-based model performed better in both the training and testing parts.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

With the in-depth implementation of China’s “National Strategy for Building a Strong Transportation Network,” the scale of expressway construction has continued to expand. As a result, the number of high-fill and deep-cut subgrade projects under complex geological conditions has increased significantly, leading to a surge in landslide-related issues. Consequently, accurate prediction of slope displacement is of critical importance for early warning and prevention of landslide disasters. This study proposes a hybrid prediction model, VMD-MPA-LSSVM-LSTM (VMLL), which integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Using monitoring data from the high-fill embankment slope at Hongtuyao as the research subject, the VMLL model is employed to predict slope displacement based on small-sample data. The objective is to provide a more accurate method for early warning of slope displacement. Firstly, the original monitoring data are decomposed into trend displacement components and fluctuation displacement components using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Subsequently, the trend component and the fluctuation component are predicted using Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, respectively. Finally, the Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the predictive models. Based on this framework, a VMLL-based slope displacement prediction model is constructed. To verify the superiority of the VMLL model, a comparative analysis was conducted against LSSVM, LSTM, and the VMD-LSSVM-LSTM models. The results demonstrate that the VMLL model achieves the highest prediction accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.4022%, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.016 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0206 mm, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 94.08%, and a Variance Accounted For (VAF) of 96.5%. Compared with the other three models, the VMLL model reduces the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE by 30.41–67.62%, 30.38–67.40%, and 27.32–71.00%, respectively. Meanwhile, it improves the R² and VAF by 5.95–217.51% and 0.38–11.48%, respectively. These improvements clearly demonstrate that the VMLL model outperforms the other models, indicating its significant advantage over single prediction models. Furthermore, three additional datasets were used to evaluate the model’s performance. The average values of the performance evaluation metrics for these datasets were 0.6207% (MAPE), 0.0238 mm(MAE), 0.0273 mm(RMSE), 90.33%(R²), and 96.81%(VAF), respectively. These results demonstrate the high accuracy and strong robustness of the proposed model in predicting both horizontal displacement and vertical settlement of slopes, providing a reliable methodological framework for slope stability assessment and landslide disaster early warning.

Experiments have proven that traditional prediction research methods have limitations in practice. Proposing countermeasures for environmental changes is the key to optimal control of the cold chain environment and reducing the lag of control effects. In this paper, a cold chain transportation environment prediction method, combining k-means++ and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, is proposed according to the characteristics of the cold chain transportation environment of agricultural products. The proposed prediction model can predict the trend of cold chain environment changes in the next ten minutes, which allows cold chain vehicle managers to issue control instructions to the environmental control equipment in advance. The fusion process for temperature and humidity data measured by multiple data sensors is performed with the k-means++ algorithm, and then the fused data are fed into an LSTM neural network for prediction based on time series. The prediction error of the prediction model proposed in this paper is very satisfactory, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R-squared of 0.5707, 0.2484, 0.3258, 0.0312 and 0.9660, respectively, for temperature prediction, and with an RMSE, MAE, MSE, mean absolute percentage error and R-squared of 1.6015, 1.1770, 2.5648, 0.2736 and 0.9702, respectively, for humidity prediction. Finally, the LSTM neural network and back propagation (BP) neural network are compared in order to enhance the reliability of the results. In terms of the prediction effect of the temperature and humidity in cold chain vehicles transporting agricultural products, the proposed model has a higher prediction accuracy than that of existing models and can provide strategic support for the fine management and regulation of the cold chain transportation environment.

The ionospheric equivalent slab thickness is a key parameter for understanding the plasma distribution in the ionosphere, with direct relevance to satellite navigation, communication, and skywave over‐the‐horizon radar. However, traditional prediction methods often suffer from regional biases, limiting their global applicability. To address this, we develop a novel global prediction model for ionospheric slab thickness by integrating the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm with Ensemble Learning (EL) techniques (XGBoost + EL). This hybrid approach leverages the strong nonlinear modeling capability of XGBoost and the robustness of EL to enhance prediction accuracy and generalization. The model was trained and tested on global occultation data from 2007 to 2020, incorporating key parameters such as vertical total electron content (vTEC), the F2‐layer critical frequency, and solar activity indices. Evaluation results demonstrate the model's high predictive accuracy, achieving a root mean square error (RMSE) of 62.3 km, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 41.5 km, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 13.1%, and a correlation coefficient ( R ) of 0.904. Notably, our model significantly outperforms the Neustrelitz equivalent Slab Thickness Model (NSTM), reducing RMSE, MAE, and MAPE by 54.8 km, 47.2 km, and 11.8%, respectively. It also shows superior performance over the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, with corresponding reductions of 72.1 km, 57.1 km, and 14.7%. These findings underscore the considerable potential of machine learning for advancing global ionospheric modeling. Future work will focus on model optimization and assessing its applicability across diverse regions and temporal scales to further improve reliability.