Climate Change and Biosecurity Risks

About 50 species of elasmobranchs and 460 species of bony fishes are currently known from the Arabian Gulf. They are key components of the region’s marine biodiversity, contributing to ecosystem functions and services, such as food security. Addressing natural and human-induced threats and the absence of adequate species-specific information, bony fishes were recently assessed against the criteria of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, which assigns species to extinction risk categories, based on objectively verifiable criteria. Two Red List Assessment workshops were held by the IUCN Global Marine Species Assessment team, Qatar University, and Qatar Museums, funded by the Qatar National Research Fund. Regional and international experts on fish taxonomy, fisheries, and Arabian Gulf environmental issues participated. Preliminary results indicate that 7% of the fish species, including several of high commercial importance, were at an elevated risk of extinction (5% Vulnerable and 2% Endangered); another 2% were designated as Near Threatened. Most species (71%) were listed as Least Concern. For 20% of all species adequate information was unavailable and they were listed as Data Deficient. Naturally stressful environmental conditions such as high salinities and temperature extremes prevail in the semi-enclosed, shallow Gulf. In addition, degradation resulting from urban and industrial developments, pollution, and unsustainable fisheries is increasing rapidly, aggravated by climate change. The findings of the regional Red List Assessment are attributed to these multiple stressors. While in general, overfishing is the dominant threat, coral-associated species are mainly impacted by habitat loss. Fish assemblages recovered from major oil spills within a few years, but climate change resulted in permanent shifts in species compositions. The high percentage of Data Deficient species underlines the need for more research. Improved scientific knowledge will be the basis for region-specific conservation measures. Most international scientists participating in the assessments have a museum background, underlining the importance of Natural History Museums in research and conservation. There is an urgent need to establish regional research collections, which will provide Qatar with prime sources of objectively verifiable, species-specific information for management and conservation purposes.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.

The Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) has monitored flowering dates over the past 100 years for seven economically important woody plant species. This unique dataset is perfect for understanding whether historical patterns of phenological plasticity are breaking down in the face of recent and rapid climate change. Here we show that a scientist armed only 50 years into this study would have been able to predict the phenological shifts of the last 50 years with a high degree of accuracy. This is despite record-breaking warm temperatures and unprecedented early flowering, suggesting consistency in phenological shifts over time. Shifts in the timing of spring flowering events are recognized as one of the clearest and most sensitive ecological indicators of climate change 1 . Numerous efforts are under way to track yearly variation in flowering phenology 2,3 , but most ongoing studies began in the last few decades and so lack data on phenology before the onset of anthropogenic climate change. Such studies typically calculate phenological sensitivity as the linear relationship between flowering time and temperature, but there is emerging uncertainty as to whether plants may be reaching the limit of their ability to track temperature 4, 5 . If they are reaching this limit, we would expect to see either non-linearities (e.g., asymptotes) in phenological sensitivity 6 , or increased variability (or a lack of predictability) in comparison with what were once tight, strong relationships 7 . Indeed, some have suggested that drivers such as winter chilling and photoperiod will become more prominent in cueing flowering as spring temperatures become less limiting 8 . To gain an understanding of whether climate change is resulting in different patterns of phenological response, we need to compare recent shifts to historical baseline data from before the onset of rapid anthropogenic climate change. .

This study documents the current state of conservation knowledge on threatened amphibian species in Peru. Following the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification system, we considered species in the following categories: Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable, and Near Threatened. Even though only the first three categories are regarded as threatened by IUCN, we included the fourth category to make comparisons with the list of threatened species issued by the Peruvian government. We used the Global Amphibian Assessment's database and the list issued in Peru for this comparison. We conducted separate field surveys in 17 regions of Peru to evaluate the presence/absence of threatened amphibian species and species that are potentially threatened. We also used the Declining Amphibian Database-DAPTF, to compare our results with previous assessments on population declines, and the World Wildlife Fund's Wildfinder database, to determine in which Neotropical ecoregion each species occurs. We compiled data on 83 species, 44 of which are recognized as threatened by the IUCN and/or the Peruvian government. The remaining 39 species should be re-assessed as they face various threats. A re-evaluation of current estimates is needed as only 8% of all species recorded in Peru are recognized as threatened by the government, whereas the global estimate of threatened species is about 32%. In addition to using IUCN criteria, this re-assessment should follow national guidelines standardized in Peru and be in accordance with the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Because the habitat of almost 40% of threatened species reported herein still remains unprotected, and data on chytridiomycosis and other threats are lacking for most taxa, it is crucial to develop strategies for habitat conservation and research on disease dynamics in natural populations.

We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until approximately 8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.

Toxoplasma gondii is a ubiquitous zoonotic parasite with a wide range of warm-blooded animals as intermediate hosts, where the transmission primarily occurs through ingesting T. gondii oocysts in the environment. Hence, animals inhabiting a wide geographical range can be sentinels for the environmental contamination of T. gondii oocysts. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii in two generalist ungulates in the Republic of Korea (ROK), wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Korean water deer (Hydropotes inermis argyropus), and identify the risk factors associated with this infection. Commercial ELISA kits confirmed a seroprevalence of 34.9% in wild boar (170/487, 95% CI: 30.7-39.3%) and 29.9% in Korean water deer (135/452, 95% CI: 25.7-34.3%). In both species, the seroprevalence was highest in winter, and showed no sex-related differences. In wild boars, the seroprevalence showed steep reduction in 2020 and increased with body mass. Meanwhile, in Korean water deer, seroprevalence did not show significant association with any of the tested variables, although an increase in seroprevalence was observed in 2020 compared to previous years. This study documents the widespread yet heterogeneous nature of T. gondii prevalence in its intermediate host population. Hence, the constant monitoring of T. gondii prevalence in its host species, both definitive and intermediate, while simultaneously considering risk factors would be necessary to identify the drivers behind the fluctuating pattern of T. gondii prevalence.

Societal Impact StatementConserving trees is fundamental to maintaining forests, which are home to about half of the global biodiversity and provide unmeasurable benefits to people. Colombia has 5868 known species of trees, 1148 of which are endemic to the country. Unfortunately, 45% of the endemic trees of Colombia are threatened with extinction, and therefore, the ecosystem services they provide might be in jeopardy. This study represents an important contribution to conservation planning for the endemic trees of a megadiverse country and highlights critical considerations for their conservation.Summary Colombia has a very rich tree flora and high levels of tree endemism. As a contribution to the “Global Tree Assessment”, we assessed 860 species to complete the Red List of the 1148 endemic trees of the country. The information is being used to support spatial conservation planning as Key Biodiversity Areas identification. To categorize the species according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List guidelines, we used geographic occurrences obtained from herbarium specimens. We carried out detailed analysis of habitat quantity and quality (using forest cover and human footprint maps) and documented anthropogenic threats and conservation actions. Almost half (45%) of the endemic trees were categorized as threatened. Most species had small distributions (with an extent of occurrence of less than 40,000 km2). Endemic tree occurrences were more common in the Andes and Magdalena regions, which have very high human footprint and consequently a large proportion of threatened species. The major threat to endemic trees was habitat destruction, due mainly to deforestation for livestock and crops. Many endemic trees were present in protected areas (65%), but threatened and non‐threatened species had low coverage with habitat protection, and many of their populations persist in disturbed habitats. Colombia has hundreds of threatened endemic trees, most of them in global biodiversity hotspots, with very few proactive conservation actions. It is urgent to increase the coverage of endemic tree populations in area‐based conservation strategies and to complement this with ex situ and other conservation actions.

Marine turtles have complex life histories and make expansive migrations over their long lifetimes, often through multiple states’ exclusive economic zones and areas beyond national jurisdiction. This complexity makes it difficult to “know” marine turtles and presents jurisdictional mismatches for existing state and inter‐state bodies that govern turtles. This paper examines how scientists tasked with assessing marine turtles for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species have used their scientific expertise to make marine turtles legible for governance, including by rescaling the Red List assessment process to include both global and regional levels. We find that in this rescaling project, marine turtle scientists have created two new objects of governance: spatially bounded “regional management units” and the scientists themselves, who have begun to sort themselves and their work around the new spatial units in the interest of generating progress in ocean conservation. More broadly, the story of the IUCN Red List process for sea turtles turns attention to the work of science and scientists in making oceans resources legible, and therefore governable, even when they defy the boundaries of state‐led regulatory bodies or jurisdictional spaces.

Summary: Tracking change in species extinction risk provides an effective metric with which to follow trends in biodiversity. One of the most widely applied classifications of the relative risk of extinction of species is the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. This chapter explores the prospect of taking the Red List Index (RLI), a global indicator of change in species extinction risk, and applying it at the regional and national level. It discusses how data coverage and data integrity are important factors in extending the utility of this index. The chapter looks in detail at the National Red List process in two countries, Venezuela and South Africa, and looks at how lessons may be learned from their experiences, and applied to other countries. It also sets out the potential strengths and limitations to using extinction risk indices to monitor change in biodiversity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new mechanism for rapid climate transitions in the high latitudes is presented which involves complex ocean‐sea ice‐atmosphere interactions. A shutdown of the Barents Sea Inflow (BSI) which carries a vast amount of heat into the Arctic Ocean is at the heart of the mechanism. The BSI shutdown is studied in a multi‐millennium integration with a global climate model forced by periodically (1000 yr) varying solar constant (±2 W/m2). A positive feedback between the inflow and sea ice cover is revealed in the model, which triggers rapid climate changes. The BSI shutdown events are associated with strong cooling in the northern latitudes and subsequent rearrangement of the Arctic Ocean surface current system. The results reveal the existence of a bifurcation point in the Arctic climate system and demonstrate that rapid climate transitions may be caused by local feedbacks and restricted to confined areas without significant global impacts.

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

The twenty-first century is likely to be characterised by large changes in regional climatic and environmental conditions, with implications for the availability and distribution of key resources such as water and productive land. While the implications of such changes for human societies are potentially profound, the empirical evidence base for understanding human–environment interactions focuses largely on the relatively recent past, during which examples of rapid and severe climate change are lacking. While there are no precise past analogues for twenty-first century climate change, the Middle Holocene Climatic Transition (MHCT), from about 6400–5000 years before present, provides us with an example of a period of large-scale global climatic reorganisation, punctuated by episodes of rapid and severe climate change, at a time when human societies were beginning to resemble those of today. A survey of archaeological and palaeo-environmental data from the northern hemisphere subtropics and other regions provides us with evidence for linked climatic, environmental and societal change during the MHCT. This evidence, the strength of which varies with location, allows us to construct convincing narratives of linked climatic, environmental and societal changes that accommodate a variety of responses and outcomes, and that are much more nuanced than narratives of the proposed climate-induced collapse of individual societies. Such synthetic studies that compare contexts across time and space can help us understand human–environment interactions during times of climatic disruption, while allowing for diverse outcomes and avoiding the pitfalls of climatic determinism.

Chapter 13 - Prosimians

<title>Abstract</title> Many elasmobranch species face increasing pressures from overfishing, habitat degradation, and coastal development, yet their movement ecology remains poorly understood. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles or drones offer a non-invasive method to study the distribution and habitat use of species frequenting inshore areas. Scalloped hammerhead sharks ( <italic>Sphyrna lewini</italic> ), listed as Critically Endangered on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, have experienced global population declines prompting the need for research that identifies key habitats, including nursery and aggregation sites. This study analysed archived footage from the Queensland SharkSmart drone program at nine beaches in southeast Queensland between September 2020 and December 2024. The frequency of scalloped hammerhead sightings was quantified, along with the influence of environmental, biotic, and operational variables on sightability. Ninety sightings were recorded, primarily between April and June. Sightings were significantly influenced by turbidity, presence of other fauna, time of day, month, and location. Aggregations of up to 80 juvenile sharks (estimated mean total length 109 cm ± 25 cm) were observed at Burleigh Beach, with additional sightings at Noosa Main Beach. These findings provide new insights into the species’ spatial ecology in southeast Queensland, Australia and demonstrate the value of drone monitoring for conservation and spatial management.

From the late Pleistocene to the Holocene, and now the so called Anthropocene, humans have been driving an ongoing series of species declines and extinctions (Dirzo et al. 2014). Large-bodied mammals are typically at a higher risk of extinction than smaller ones (Cardillo et al. 2005). However, in some circumstances terrestrial megafauna populations have been able to recover some of their lost numbers due to strong conservation and political commitment, and human cultural changes (Chapron et al. 2014). Indeed many would be in considerably worse predicaments in the absence of conservation action (Hoffmann et al. 2015). Nevertheless, most mammalian megafauna face dramatic range contractions and population declines. In fact, 59% of the world’s largest carnivores (≥ 15 kg, n = 27) and 60% of the world’s largest herbivores (≥ 100 kg, n = 74) are classified as threatened with extinction on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (supplemental table S1 and S2). This situation is particularly dire in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, home to the greatest diversity of extant megafauna (figure 1). Species at risk of extinction include some of the world’s most iconic animals—such as gorillas, rhinos, and big cats (figure 2 top row)—and, unfortunately, they are vanishing just as science is discovering their essential ecological roles (Estes et al. 2011). Here, our objectives are to raise awareness of how these megafauna are imperiled (species in supplemental table S1 and S2) and to stimulate broad interest in developing specific recommendations and concerted action to conserve them.