Abrupt climate change.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.

Introduction The field of integrated assessment of climate change is undergoing a paradigm shift towards the analysis of potentially abrupt and irreversible climate changes (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007). Early integrated studies broke important new ground in exploring the relationship between the costs and benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions (e.g., Nordhaus, 1991; Manne and Richels, 1991; or Tol, 1997). These studies project the climate response to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to be relatively smooth and typically conclude that the projected benefits of reducing CO 2 emissions would justify only small reductions in CO 2 emissions in a cost–benefit framework. The validity of the often- assumed smooth climate response is, however, questionable, given how the climate system has responded to forcing in the geological past. Before the Anthropocene, the geological time period where humans have started to influence the global biogeochemical cycles considerably (Crutzen, 2002), the predominant responses of the climate system were forced by small changes in solar insolation occurring on timescales of thousands of years (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Yet this slow and smooth forcing apparently triggered abrupt climate changes – a threshold response where the climate system moved between different basins of attraction (Berger, 1990; Clement et al ., 2001). Anthropogenic forcing may trigger climate threshold responses in the future (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007).

The Earth system shows the tendency to change in nonlinear and sometimes abrupt ways; small changes in external forcing can lead to large and perhaps irreversible changes in outcome. The prospect of crossing important ‘tipping points’ and realizing their impacts poses unique challenges to decision makers within society, hoping to avoid damaging anthropogenic influence on Earth systems. Abrupt and nonlinear changes are by their very nature highly uncertain and difficult to predict, and so hard to avoid or adapt to. After briefly introducing key concepts in nonlinear dynamics, we summarize paleoclimate evidence for past abrupt and nonlinear changes in major Earth systems such as, ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, sea ice and terrestrial ice sheets, atmospheric composition, and the terrestrial biosphere. For each of these systems we then review observational, theoretical, and modeling evidence for potential future abrupt changes, and associated impacts. We outline the extra challenges that are faced in predicting abrupt or nonlinear as opposed to more gradual climate change, and in providing a risk analysis for their impacts on Earth and societal systems. We examine the potential for early warning systems of abrupt change, and discuss differences in attitude to risk which may dictate societal response to low probability–high impact events. Finally, we outline the promising directions of research needed to better quantify the risk of abrupt and nonlinear climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 663–686 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.130This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

<p>During the last glacial period, abrupt climate events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich events have been observed in various types of Northern Hemispheric (NH) paleoclimate archives. It has been speculated that volcanism may play a role in the abrupt climate variability of the last glacial period, for example as a trigger of abrupt changes. The investigation of a possible link between abrupt climate events and volcanic eruptions has been hampered by the lack of a global volcanic eruption record from the last glacial period. A recent identification of 80 major bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice core records within the interval 12-60 ka BP now enables us to investigate this link.</p><p>Using high-resolution ice-core records of climate (δ<sup>18</sup>O), atmospheric circulation changes (calcium) and volcanic eruptions (sulfate and other volcanic proxies) we investigate the timing of abrupt climate events and large volcanic eruptions at decadal resolution. We consider possible links between major volcanic eruptions and DO onsets (NH warming), DO terminations (NH cooling), and Heinrich stadials (strong NH cooling). Heinrich stadials are cold Greenland stadial periods during which Heinrich events occurred; large Hudson Strait iceberg discharge events that are characterized by deposition of significant amounts of ice rafted debris in North Atlantic marine sediments.</p><p>Significant links of volcanic and climatic events are tested in a statistical framework under the null hypothesis of random and memoryless volcanic activity. Our analysis shows that while certainly not all abrupt climate change of the last glacial period is associated with volcanism, we find that volcanism may have induced some abrupt Greenland warming events and perhaps several of the extreme North Atlantic cold Heinrich stadials; no significant link is found between volcanism and DO terminations. We speculate that volcanic cooling can drive such transitions when the coupled system of Atlantic Ocean circulation and North Atlantic sea ice is close to a tipping point.</p>

The historical flood-level time series of the River Nile (AD 622–1470) is chosen to identify abrupt climate changes by applying global and local analysis techniques: the Mann–Kendall test and a non-hierarchical cluster analysis method to improve the Mann–Kendall test; a multiscale moving t-test with correction to the degree of freedom and an antisymmetric wavelet transform. The global estimates show three distinct epochs, AD 622–1078, 1079–1325 and 1326–1470, coinciding with larger scale climate changes: a relatively cool age, the Little Climatic Optimum of the Middle Ages, and an interim period before the Little Ice Age. The local estimates reveal the following results. The reference time of abrupt changes can be clearly identified, the associated time-scale coincides with the persistent anomaly period, and the maximum absolute t-value is statistically significant. There are about eight almost synchronous abrupt changes in the minimum and maximum River Nile flood levels, many of them are associated with 35–45 year persistence time-scales. An association of these short time-scales with those of interdecadal variability reported for the mid- and high-latitude sea-surface temperature of the North Atlantic is suggested, although information on phase coherence is not available. ©1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. Int. J Climatol., 17: 1301–1315 (1997) (No. of Figures: 9 No. of Tables: 1 No. of

<p>It is challenging to model the last deglaciation, as it is characterized by abrupt millennial scale climate events, such as ice-sheet surges, that are superimposed on long-term climate changes, such as a global warming and the decay of a substantial part of the glacial ice sheets. Within PMIP, several groups have simulated the last deglaciation with CMIP-type models prescribing ice sheets from reconstructions. Whereas this type of simulations accounts for the effects of ice-sheet changes including meltwater release on climate, the prescribed ice sheet evolution is typically not consistent with the simulated climate evolution. Here we present a set of deglacial simulations that include fully interactive ice sheets that respond to changes in the climate. The setup also allows for feedbacks between ice sheets and climate and , hence, allows for a more realistic representation of the mechanisms of the last deglaciation, as the simulated climate and ice sheet changes are fully consistent..</p><p>The model consists of the coarse resolution set-up of MPI-ESM coupled to the ice sheet model mPISM (Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica) and the solid earth model VILMA. The model includes interactive icebergs and an automated calculation of the land-sea mask and river routing directions. A set of synchronously coupled simulations were started from an asynchronously coupled spin-up at 26ky and integrated throughout the deglaciation into the Holocene. The only prescribed external forcing are atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and earth orbital parameters. One goal of this ensemble was to find the optimal combination of model parameters for the simulation of the deglaciation.</p><p>The model simulates the decay of the ice sheets, the rise of sea level, the flooding of shelf seas and the opening of passages. A large fraction of the ice sheet retreat is due to dynamical events (e.g. the final decay of the ice sheets on Barents Shelf or the Hudson Bay). Superimposed on the relatively slow glacial/interglacial transition are abrupt climate changes, triggered for example by recurrent ice sheet surges. These surges correspond to Heinrich Events tand result in a weakening of the AMOC. Three source regions for ice sheet surges occur during these simulations: from the Laurentide ice sheet through Hudson Strait, from the Laurentide ice sheet northward directly to the Arctic ocean, and from the Fennoscandian ice sheet into the Norwegian Sea. The characteristic climate response shows a large dependence on the surge location.</p><p>The simulated changes in strength of the AMOC are except for millennial-scale reduction events only moderate. However, during glacial periods, brine release is the central process for deep water formation in both hemispheres, in contrast to the Holocene. dDuring the deglaciation the ventilation of the deep ocean is strongly reduced, leading to a strong increase of the simulated deep water ages. This effect lasts longest in the deep North Pacific and extends in some simulations into the Holocene.</p>

Understanding the causes of past atmospheric methane (CH4) variability is important for characterizing the relationship between CH4, global climate and terrestrial biogeochemical cycling. Ice core records of atmospheric CH4 contain rapid variations linked to abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and Heinrich events (HE)1,2. The drivers of these CH4 variations remain unknown but can be constrained with ice core measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4, which is sensitive to the strength of different isotopically distinguishable emission categories (microbial, pyrogenic and geologic)3-5. Here we present multi-decadal-scale measurements of δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 from the WAIS Divide and Talos Dome ice cores and identify abrupt 1‰ enrichments in δ13C-CH4 synchronous with HE CH4 pulses and 0.5‰ δ13C-CH4 enrichments synchronous with DO CH4 increases. δD-CH4 varied little across the abrupt CH4 changes. Using box models to interpret these isotopic shifts6 and assuming a constant δ13C-CH4 of microbial emissions, we propose that abrupt shifts in tropical rainfall associated with HEs and DO events enhanced 13C-enriched pyrogenic CH4 emissions, and by extension global wildfire extent, by 90-150%. Carbon cycle box modelling experiments7 suggest that the resulting released terrestrial carbon could have caused fromone-third to all of the abrupt CO2 increases associated with HEs. These findings suggest that fire regimes and the terrestrial carbon cycle varied contemporaneously and substantially with past abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period.

During abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period paleorecords show large amplitude changes in the dust cycle. We use Earth System model simulations to evaluate processes operating across these events. Idealized Heinrich stadial‐like simulations show a southwards migration of tropical rainfall that dries the Sahel and reduces wet deposition causing a widespread enhancement of tropical dust loading. However, several discrepancies with marine core dust deposition reconstructions are evident. Simulations with a more limited freshwater forcing (0.4 Sv instead of 1.0 Sv) and weaker cooling over the North Atlantic (less than 3°C) show a switch in sign of the stadial dust deposition anomaly in several regions, improving agreement with paleorecords. The simulated dust cycle therefore displays in places a non‐linear response to abrupt change. The global‐mean stadial dust radiative forcing in the more realistic simulations is around −0.2 to −0.6 W m−2 and so could represent an amplifying feedback during these events.

We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until approximately 8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.

Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

Abrupt climate change: chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales

The high temporal resolution of the marine microfossil record makes it possible to explore how microbial communities responded to abrupt climate changes in the past. We analysed changes in species richness and total abundance of marine diatoms in sedimentary records from the Mauritanian upwelling system and the Panama Basin spanning the last 100 000 years. The analysis shows instances of community change and recovery linked to episodes of rapid, sub-millennial scale climate change (e.g. Heinrich events). The probability of sampling a given species during the perturbation increased with the mean abundance of the species in the database, indicating that (i) dominant species were persistent through long periods of time and (ii) rare species, with low population densities, accounted for much of the variability in species richness. To the extent that contemporaneous climate change falls within the range of climate variability analysed here, our results point to important changes in the structure of marine diatom communities, yet these changes will be reversible. These results highlight the importance of integrating fossil data and ecological theories to understand the effect of climate change on the ecological and biogeochemical functioning of marine ecosystems.

The Holocene vegetation history of the northern coastal Arabian Peninsula is of long-standing interest, as this Mediterranean/semiarid/arid region is known to be particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Detailed palynological data from an 800-cm alluvial sequence cored in the Jableh plain in northwest Syria have been used to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the coastal lowlands and the nearby Jabal an Nuşayriyah mountains for the period 2150 to 550 B.C. Corresponding with the 4.2 to 3.9 and 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP abrupt climate changes (ACCs), two large-scale shifts to a more arid climate have been recorded. These two ACCs had different impacts on the vegetation assemblages in coastal Syria. The 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC is drier and lasted longer than the 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC, and is characterized by the development of a warm steppe pollen-derived biome (1100-800 B.C.) and a peak of hot desert pollen-derived biome at 900 B.C. The 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC is characterized by a xerophytic woods and shrubs pollen-derived biome ca. 2050 B.C. The impact of the 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC on human occupation and cultural development is important along the Syrian coast with the destruction of Ugarit and the collapse of the Ugarit kingdom at ca. 1190 to 1185 B.C.

Research on the possibility of future abrupt climate change has been popularized under the term ‘tipping points’ and has often been motivated by using simple, low-dimensional concepts. These include the iconic fold bifurcation, where abrupt change occurs when a stable equilibrium is lost, and early warning signals of such a destabilization that can be derived based on a simple stochastic model approach. In this paper, we review the challenges and limitations that are associated with this view, and we discuss promising research paths to explore the causes and the likelihood of abrupt changes in future climate. We focus on several climate system components and ecosystems that have been proposed as candidates for tipping points, with an emphasis on ice sheets, the Atlantic Ocean circulation, vegetation in North Africa and Arctic sea ice. In most example cases, multiple equilibria found in simple models do not appear in complex models or become more difficult to find, while the potential for abrupt change still remains. We also discuss how the low-dimensional logic of current methods to detect and interpret the existence of multiple equilibria can fail in complex models. Moreover, we highlight promising methods to detect abrupt shifts and to obtain information about the mechanisms behind them. These methods include linear approaches such as statistical stability indicators and radiative feedback analysis as well as non-linear approaches to detect dynamical transitions and infer the causality behind events. Given the huge complexity of comprehensive process-based climate models and the non-linearity and regional peculiarities of the processes involved, the uncertainties associated with the possible future occurrence of abrupt shifts are large and not well quantified. We highlight the potential of data mining approaches to tackle this problem and finally discuss how the scientific community can collaborate to make efficient progress in understanding abrupt climate shifts.

Leading hypotheses for abrupt climate changes are focused on the ocean response to a freshening of surface waters in the north Atlantic. The degree to which such a freshening affects the deep, slow thermohaline, rather than the shallow, swift, wind-driven circulations of the ocean, and hence the degree to which that freshening affects climate in high rather than low latitudes, differ from model to model, depending on factors such as the treatment of diffusive processes in the oceans. Many comprehensive climate models are biased and confine the influence mainly to the thermohaline circulation and northern climates. Simulations of paleoclimates can provide valuable tests for the models, but only some of those climates provide sufficiently stringent tests to determine which models are realistic.