Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.

Understanding the causes of past atmospheric methane (CH4) variability is important for characterizing the relationship between CH4, global climate and terrestrial biogeochemical cycling. Ice core records of atmospheric CH4 contain rapid variations linked to abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events and Heinrich events (HE)1,2. The drivers of these CH4 variations remain unknown but can be constrained with ice core measurements of the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric CH4, which is sensitive to the strength of different isotopically distinguishable emission categories (microbial, pyrogenic and geologic)3-5. Here we present multi-decadal-scale measurements of δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 from the WAIS Divide and Talos Dome ice cores and identify abrupt 1‰ enrichments in δ13C-CH4 synchronous with HE CH4 pulses and 0.5‰ δ13C-CH4 enrichments synchronous with DO CH4 increases. δD-CH4 varied little across the abrupt CH4 changes. Using box models to interpret these isotopic shifts6 and assuming a constant δ13C-CH4 of microbial emissions, we propose that abrupt shifts in tropical rainfall associated with HEs and DO events enhanced 13C-enriched pyrogenic CH4 emissions, and by extension global wildfire extent, by 90-150%. Carbon cycle box modelling experiments7 suggest that the resulting released terrestrial carbon could have caused fromone-third to all of the abrupt CO2 increases associated with HEs. These findings suggest that fire regimes and the terrestrial carbon cycle varied contemporaneously and substantially with past abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period.

The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk.

<p>During the last glacial period, abrupt climate events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich events have been observed in various types of Northern Hemispheric (NH) paleoclimate archives. It has been speculated that volcanism may play a role in the abrupt climate variability of the last glacial period, for example as a trigger of abrupt changes. The investigation of a possible link between abrupt climate events and volcanic eruptions has been hampered by the lack of a global volcanic eruption record from the last glacial period. A recent identification of 80 major bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice core records within the interval 12-60 ka BP now enables us to investigate this link.</p><p>Using high-resolution ice-core records of climate (δ<sup>18</sup>O), atmospheric circulation changes (calcium) and volcanic eruptions (sulfate and other volcanic proxies) we investigate the timing of abrupt climate events and large volcanic eruptions at decadal resolution. We consider possible links between major volcanic eruptions and DO onsets (NH warming), DO terminations (NH cooling), and Heinrich stadials (strong NH cooling). Heinrich stadials are cold Greenland stadial periods during which Heinrich events occurred; large Hudson Strait iceberg discharge events that are characterized by deposition of significant amounts of ice rafted debris in North Atlantic marine sediments.</p><p>Significant links of volcanic and climatic events are tested in a statistical framework under the null hypothesis of random and memoryless volcanic activity. Our analysis shows that while certainly not all abrupt climate change of the last glacial period is associated with volcanism, we find that volcanism may have induced some abrupt Greenland warming events and perhaps several of the extreme North Atlantic cold Heinrich stadials; no significant link is found between volcanism and DO terminations. We speculate that volcanic cooling can drive such transitions when the coupled system of Atlantic Ocean circulation and North Atlantic sea ice is close to a tipping point.</p>

The historical flood-level time series of the River Nile (AD 622–1470) is chosen to identify abrupt climate changes by applying global and local analysis techniques: the Mann–Kendall test and a non-hierarchical cluster analysis method to improve the Mann–Kendall test; a multiscale moving t-test with correction to the degree of freedom and an antisymmetric wavelet transform. The global estimates show three distinct epochs, AD 622–1078, 1079–1325 and 1326–1470, coinciding with larger scale climate changes: a relatively cool age, the Little Climatic Optimum of the Middle Ages, and an interim period before the Little Ice Age. The local estimates reveal the following results. The reference time of abrupt changes can be clearly identified, the associated time-scale coincides with the persistent anomaly period, and the maximum absolute t-value is statistically significant. There are about eight almost synchronous abrupt changes in the minimum and maximum River Nile flood levels, many of them are associated with 35–45 year persistence time-scales. An association of these short time-scales with those of interdecadal variability reported for the mid- and high-latitude sea-surface temperature of the North Atlantic is suggested, although information on phase coherence is not available. ©1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. Int. J Climatol., 17: 1301–1315 (1997) (No. of Figures: 9 No. of Tables: 1 No. of

Abrupt climate change: chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales

<p>It is challenging to model the last deglaciation, as it is characterized by abrupt millennial scale climate events, such as ice-sheet surges, that are superimposed on long-term climate changes, such as a global warming and the decay of a substantial part of the glacial ice sheets. Within PMIP, several groups have simulated the last deglaciation with CMIP-type models prescribing ice sheets from reconstructions. Whereas this type of simulations accounts for the effects of ice-sheet changes including meltwater release on climate, the prescribed ice sheet evolution is typically not consistent with the simulated climate evolution. Here we present a set of deglacial simulations that include fully interactive ice sheets that respond to changes in the climate. The setup also allows for feedbacks between ice sheets and climate and , hence, allows for a more realistic representation of the mechanisms of the last deglaciation, as the simulated climate and ice sheet changes are fully consistent..</p><p>The model consists of the coarse resolution set-up of MPI-ESM coupled to the ice sheet model mPISM (Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica) and the solid earth model VILMA. The model includes interactive icebergs and an automated calculation of the land-sea mask and river routing directions. A set of synchronously coupled simulations were started from an asynchronously coupled spin-up at 26ky and integrated throughout the deglaciation into the Holocene. The only prescribed external forcing are atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and earth orbital parameters. One goal of this ensemble was to find the optimal combination of model parameters for the simulation of the deglaciation.</p><p>The model simulates the decay of the ice sheets, the rise of sea level, the flooding of shelf seas and the opening of passages. A large fraction of the ice sheet retreat is due to dynamical events (e.g. the final decay of the ice sheets on Barents Shelf or the Hudson Bay). Superimposed on the relatively slow glacial/interglacial transition are abrupt climate changes, triggered for example by recurrent ice sheet surges. These surges correspond to Heinrich Events tand result in a weakening of the AMOC. Three source regions for ice sheet surges occur during these simulations: from the Laurentide ice sheet through Hudson Strait, from the Laurentide ice sheet northward directly to the Arctic ocean, and from the Fennoscandian ice sheet into the Norwegian Sea. The characteristic climate response shows a large dependence on the surge location.</p><p>The simulated changes in strength of the AMOC are except for millennial-scale reduction events only moderate. However, during glacial periods, brine release is the central process for deep water formation in both hemispheres, in contrast to the Holocene. dDuring the deglaciation the ventilation of the deep ocean is strongly reduced, leading to a strong increase of the simulated deep water ages. This effect lasts longest in the deep North Pacific and extends in some simulations into the Holocene.</p>

Numerical models simulating potential future climate schemes are tested against different proxy-based reconstruction of paleoclimate and must be finely tuned. In the north Atlantic region, records indicate that the Last Glacial Termination was interrupted by rapid, high-amplitude reversals (Heinrich Stadial 1, Younger Dryas) during which temperatures got back to nearly ice-age cold conditions. These events are thought to be year-round cooling periods and could be close analogues for future climate change in the north Atlantic region. Terrestrial glacial deposits give a high resolution vantage on abrupt shifts but remain poorly investigated. Previous studies based on surface exposure dating on glacial landforms show that glaciers retreats occurred within HS1 and YD, contradicting the prevailing models. Thus mapping palaeo-mountain glaciers former extend, dating their retreat and reconstructing their successive palaeo-equilibrium lines altitude allow to determine whether this pattern is a consensus for the northern hemisphere palaeo-glaciers. This approach also provides information on the timing and magnitude of past climate change. This study is based on the west coast of Ireland directly impacted by westerlies, located downwind of the North Atlantic Ocean and which contains key sites where palaeo-mountain glaciers let the footprints of their passage. Here, we present the first results from the Geologic Perspectives on Abrupt Climate Change (GeoPAC2) project: Strengthening Ireland’s capacity for projecting future change. The new beryllium-10-dated glacier records reveals phase of ice retreat occurring within HS1. It questions the rising seasonality hypothesis which suggests an increase of summer temperatures during melting season. The results of this work will provide useful quantitative data for investigate North Atlantic climate variability and improve both climate and glaciological models.

The Earth system shows the tendency to change in nonlinear and sometimes abrupt ways; small changes in external forcing can lead to large and perhaps irreversible changes in outcome. The prospect of crossing important ‘tipping points’ and realizing their impacts poses unique challenges to decision makers within society, hoping to avoid damaging anthropogenic influence on Earth systems. Abrupt and nonlinear changes are by their very nature highly uncertain and difficult to predict, and so hard to avoid or adapt to. After briefly introducing key concepts in nonlinear dynamics, we summarize paleoclimate evidence for past abrupt and nonlinear changes in major Earth systems such as, ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, sea ice and terrestrial ice sheets, atmospheric composition, and the terrestrial biosphere. For each of these systems we then review observational, theoretical, and modeling evidence for potential future abrupt changes, and associated impacts. We outline the extra challenges that are faced in predicting abrupt or nonlinear as opposed to more gradual climate change, and in providing a risk analysis for their impacts on Earth and societal systems. We examine the potential for early warning systems of abrupt change, and discuss differences in attitude to risk which may dictate societal response to low probability–high impact events. Finally, we outline the promising directions of research needed to better quantify the risk of abrupt and nonlinear climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 663–686 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.130This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are a pervasive feature of glacial climates. It is widely accepted that the associated changes in climate, which are most pronounced in the North Atlantic region, are caused by abrupt changes in the strength and/or northward extent of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), possibly originating from spontaneous transitions in the ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere system. Here we use an Earth system model that produces DO-like events to show that the climate conditions under which millennial-scale AMOC variations occur are controlled by the surface ocean buoyancy flux. In particular, we find that the present-day-like convection pattern with deep-water formation in the Labrador and Nordic seas becomes unstable when the buoyancy flux integrated over the northern North Atlantic turns from negative to positive. It is in the proximity of this point that the model produces transitions between different convection patterns associated with strong and weak AMOC states. The buoyancy flux depends on the surface freshwater and heat fluxes and on sea surface temperature through the temperature dependence of the thermal expansion coefficient of seawater. We find that larger ice sheets tend to stabilize convection by decreasing the net freshwater flux, while CO2-induced cooling decreases buoyancy loss and destabilizes convection. These results help to explain the conditions under which DO events appear and are a step towards an improved understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt climate changes.

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset.

There has been increasing interest in the possibility of abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic and their impacts on northwestern Europe. Here, we investigate such abrupt changes in a large ensemble of CMIP6 climate models. We define two potentially observable metrics based on subpolar sea surface temperatures (SSTs) or mixed layer depths (MLDs), to explore the link between temperature changes and convection collapse. The two metrics yield similar numbers of abrupt events but suggest that several types of abrupt event are possible. Abrupt MLD changes appear related to ongoing warming. Abrupt SST changes mostly consist of decadal cooling followed by warming, apparently related to coupled dynamics involving the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Models with more realistic NAO variability show more such events. However, several more persistent SST events are also found. Both cooling and warming phases have important implications for impacts and adaptation, particularly over the British Isles.

Long-term trend and abrupt changes of major climate variables in the Taihu Basin were investigated based on the mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine duration at six meteorological stations from 1954 to 2006. Results showed that the long-term trend for annual precipitation was not statistically significant during the past 53 years, but a wetter tendency was detected and the increasing centre for annual precipitation was located in the southeast of the study area. Mean air temperature has increased by 1.43°C, similar trends were also identified for maximum and minimum air temperature, which have increased by 1.06 and 1.54°C, respectively, while DTR exhibited a slight decreasing trend with a rate of about −0.09°C/(10 year). The annual mean relative humidity and sunshine duration exhibited a decreasing trend, with Kendall slope values of −0.99%/10 year and −7.797 h/10 year, respectively. Examination of long-range dependence showed that all climate variables exhibited strong persistence at annual scale except minimum air temperature. Detection of abrupt changes using nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods showed different results. Abrupt changes occurred in the 1980s and 2000s for annual precipitation using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method, while no abrupt changes were detected using the Pettitt method. Abrupt changes of temperature and relative humidity took place in the early 1990s using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method, which occurred in the late and mid 1980s using the Pettitt method, while abrupt changes of sunshine duration and DTR detected by two methods occurred in the similar period. The result will be helpful for local flood control and drought relief in urban planning and construction under future global climate change.

Introduction The field of integrated assessment of climate change is undergoing a paradigm shift towards the analysis of potentially abrupt and irreversible climate changes (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007). Early integrated studies broke important new ground in exploring the relationship between the costs and benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions (e.g., Nordhaus, 1991; Manne and Richels, 1991; or Tol, 1997). These studies project the climate response to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to be relatively smooth and typically conclude that the projected benefits of reducing CO 2 emissions would justify only small reductions in CO 2 emissions in a cost–benefit framework. The validity of the often- assumed smooth climate response is, however, questionable, given how the climate system has responded to forcing in the geological past. Before the Anthropocene, the geological time period where humans have started to influence the global biogeochemical cycles considerably (Crutzen, 2002), the predominant responses of the climate system were forced by small changes in solar insolation occurring on timescales of thousands of years (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Yet this slow and smooth forcing apparently triggered abrupt climate changes – a threshold response where the climate system moved between different basins of attraction (Berger, 1990; Clement et al ., 2001). Anthropogenic forcing may trigger climate threshold responses in the future (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007).