Coalition Dynamics and the Changing German Party System

This article examines the development of the east German party system from the peaceful revolution in the former GDR to the aftermath of the 1994 federal election. It takes into account its format, polarisation, fragmentation, asymmetry, volatility, legitimacy, segmentation and government durability. The analysis shows that there was not only a complete transformation of the former GDR's party system between autumn 1989 and autumn 1990 but also a general change of the east German party system between 1990 and 1994. Both at the federal and at the Land level, the high volatility resulted in a considerably less fragmented system with a parliamentary format reduced to three parties: the CDU, SPD and PDS. The change in the electoral dimension also led to an increase in segmentation and to government instability at the Land level and coincided with a decrease of legitimacy. Reasons for the party system change are to be be found in developments at the macro‐level, that is, the institutional framework party compe...

This article is part of the special cluster titled Parties and Democratic Linkage in Post-Communist Europe, guest edited by Lori Thorlakson, and will be published in the August 2018 issue of EEPS This article introduces a special section on parties and democratic linkage in post-communist Europe. It sets out the main objectives and research questions that guide the four articles in this special section, presenting these in the context of the comparative politics literature on party and party system change and democratic development. It introduces the key arguments of the articles in the section, arguing that the contributions identify regionally distinctive patterns of party and party system behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe. These patterns have fuelled a quest for more suitable conceptual and measurement tools and call for diversity in comparative analysis, combining intra and inter regional comparison.

This is the third of three chapters on political party systems and structures of competition, and presents an overall review. In the first section, Approaches to the Classification of Party Systems: A Review it looks at the principal existing approaches to the classification of party systems, pointing to both their limits and possibilities when applied within comparative analysis. It then goes on in the second section, Party Systems and the Competition for Government, to underline the importance of understanding the structure of competition in any given party system, since in many ways the whole notion of a party system is centred on the assumption that there exists a stable structure of competition. Structures of competition can be seen to be either closed (and predictable) or open (and unpredictable), depending on the patterns of alternation in government, the degree of innovation or persistence in processes of government formation, and the range of parties gaining access to government. The emphasis in the third section, Party Systems and Electoral Outcomes, is on the need to distinguish between processes of electoral change on the one hand, and changes in party systems and the structures of competition on the other, a distinction which also allows the possibility of situations in which electoral change is the consequence rather than the cause of party system change.

Party systems represent parts of political systems which arise as a result of interactions between political parties. Party relations produce characteristics which place a particular party system within the typology of party systems. A number of factors can be considered in explaining the nature of party competition, most often placed within the categories of institutional and sociostructural factors. This paper analyses the impact of full and partial social cleavages on party systems. Given that the theory of social cleavages has proved insufficient in explaining party differences and the dynamics of party systems, especially in new democracies, we will improve the analysis by including the concept of partial social cleavages. This research shows the unequivocal influence of dominant social cleavages on the situation and changes in party systems. Although in some cases no changes in the type of party system have occurred, it can be concluded that exactly in those cases there exist permanent and ingrained social cleavages, but also partial cleavages which affect the relations in the party system at the given time. Identity issues stand out as the dominant topic in political competition, especially in the countries where ethnic relations have not been resolved.

This article sets out to examine the extent of party system change in Scandinavia since the ‘earthquake elections’ in the early 1970s witnessed the parliamentary breakthrough of new parties and, in particular, the rise of a populist radical right. It deploys an analytical framework derived from Berglund and Lindström's five‐party Scandinavian model and an identification of the ‘core structures’ of the frozen party system in the region. In assessing party system change the significance of changes in the patterns of interaction between parties at the elite level, that is in the governmental and parliamentary arenas, is emphasised over and above electoral change. It is argued that the core features of the Scandinavian party systems have changed much less since 1970 than the structure of party competition and that the single most important development in the party politics of the region has been that the historic non‐socialist groupings have acquired increased ‘relevance’ as coalition parties both severally and collectively. The article concludes by asking: ‘so what?’ Can an indication of the extent of party system change be of assistance in understanding the wider workings of the political system and the operation of the legislative process?

In this chapter, we examine the challenges that the German party system and established parties faced in the early 2020s, tracing the path towards polarized pluralism. Through longitudinal data, we illustrate the major trends since the post-war period, with an emphasis on the system’s polarization, fragmentation, and electoral competition. We also address the challenges that parties face as organizations in a changing political environment. The German party system has undergone significant changes, putting parties under increased competitive pressure. These changes include heightened volatility, weakened catch-all parties, and a rise in politicization, leading to diversified political competition through the emergence of the populist radical right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the success of the Green party. Currently, the party system is more polarized and pluralistic than ever, with new and diverse coalition models reflecting the altered competition. While the situation does not necessarily indicate a democratic crisis, the increasing polarization, particularly evident in eastern German federal states, could threaten the system’s future stability.

The German party system has changed since the 1980s. The relatively stable ‘two-and-a-half party’ system of the 1960s and 1970s has become a fluid five-party system. This development can generally be attributed to changes on the demand and supply sides of party competition and to the changing institutional framework. The European integration process is part of this institutional framework and this chapter deals with the question of whether it has influenced the development of the party system at the national level. To systematically analyse the possible impact, eight party-system properties are distinguished: format, fragmentation, asymmetry, volatility, polarization, legitimacy, segmentation, and coalition stability. The analysis shows that one cannot speak of a Europeanization of the German party system in the sense of a considerable impact of the European integration process on its development. Up to now, the inclusion of Germany in the systemic context of the EU has not led to noticeable changes of party-system properties. On the demand side of party competition, this is due to the fact that the EU issue does not influence the citizens' electoral decisions. On the supply side, the lack of Europeanization can be explained mainly by the traditional, interest-based pro-European élite consensus, the low potential for political mobilization around European integration, and the marginal role of ethnocentrist–authoritarian parties.

The main goal of this article is to analyse the role of social, political and ideological factors in explaining party system change in Portugal during the democratic period (April 1974June 2005). We begin with the evolving trends in the party system format, and their main effects on the patterns of parties' interactions as well as on the functioning of the political system. This first approach will enable us to divide the democratic period into two distinct phases and an interlude. Following this, we will analyse the dimensions and strength of policy competition between the parties before, finally, analysing the impact of social, political and ideological factors on party system change in Portugal.

The nationalisation of politics is a major political phenomenon deriving from the historical trend towards the formation of national electorates and party systems brought about by the progressive reduction in the significance of territorial cleavages. During the last 50 years, though the issue of vote nationalisation has been addressed by a large volume of literature, serious analysis of the Italian case has never made much progress, having been limited to the reflections of a few isolated authors. Over the past 20 years, a period marking the passage from the long period of polarised pluralism to the so-called ‘Second Republic’, the Italian party system has undergone profound changes, with the continuing emergence and growth of new political parties and a sharp increase in the levels of party fragmentation and volatility. How has nationalisation of the vote evolved in this changing framework? This article analyses the process of (de)-nationalisation of the vote in Italy and explains its evolution between the first (1948–1992) and the second (1994–2013) phases of the republican era, assessing the impact of various possible determinants. The empirical analysis shows that vote nationalisation in Italy is strongly associated with competition factors and with the level of institutionalisation of the party system.

Party systems, that is, the number and the size of all the parties within a country, can vary greatly across countries. I conduct a principal component analysis on a party seat share dataset of 17 advanced democracies from 1970 to 2013 to reduce the dimensionality of the data. I find that the most important dimensions that differentiate party systems are: “the size of the biggest two parties” and the level of “competition between the two biggest parties.” I use the results to compare the changes in electoral and legislative party systems. I also juxtapose the results to previous party system typologies and party system size measures. I find that typologies sort countries into categories based on variation along both dimensions. On the other hand, most of the current political science literature use measures (e.g., the effective number of parties) that are correlated with the first dimension. I suggest that instead of these, indices that measure the opposition structure and competition could be used to explore problems pertaining to the competitiveness of the party systems.

Considerable evidence suggests that social diversity increases the number of political parties. While a vast literature examines this relationship by measuring social diversity as ethnic fragmentation, the convenience of capturing the level of social heterogeneity by using alternative indicators has been traditionally overlooked. In this article, I offer new evidence that documents the impact of social diversity on party system size by proxying the former as the number of social classes. Using both objective class positions and subjective class identifications and employing two different datasets that cover democratic legislative elections around the world between 1981 and 2015, I find that the effective number of social classes has a positive effect on party system fragmentation when the average district magnitude in a democracy is high. Given the difficulty to test these effects in a cross-country environment net of unobserved heterogeneity, I examine the robustness of the findings in Spain between 2000 and 2016, an ideal case due to large differences in district magnitude and a changing party system. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of social diversity are likely to increase party system fragmentation when the electoral system is permissive enough.

In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyse positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisis and (2) the change of leadership within the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Applying scaling techniques to locate candidates of both elections in the same two-dimensional policy space, the analysis demonstrates that in 2017 the AfD took a distinct radical right position in the party system of Germany. Moreover, the study finds that almost all parties moved to the right on the cultural left–right dimension in 2017, whereas for the economic left–right dimension this has not been the case. Contrary to the mantra of an ideological delineation against right-wing populism, there has been a robust socio-political conservative shift in the German party system.

For a given electoral system, what average number and size distribution of parties can we expect? This book makes specific predictions that agree with world averages. The basic factors are assembly size and district magnitude (the number of seats allocated in the district). While previous models tell us only the direction in which to change the electoral system, the present ones also tell us by how much they must be changed so as to obtain the desired change in party system and cabinet duration. These are quantitatively predictive logical models. Combined with known particularities of a country, these models can be used for informed institutional design. Allocation of seats among countries in the European Parliament is also put on a logical basis.

Paul Mitchell and Rick Wilford (eds), Politics in Northern Ireland. PSAI Press/Westview, 1998; 352pp; 0813335280 (pb) £22.30 Ruth Dudley Edwards, The Faithful Tribe: An Intimate Portrait of the Loyal Institutions, Harper Collins, 1999; xvi + 448 pp; 0002558637 (hb) £17.99. Kevin Haddick‐Flynn, Orangeism: The Making of a Tradition, Wolfhound Press, 1999; 448pp; 0863276598 (hb) £30 George Mitchell, Making Peace The inside story of the making of the Good Friday Agreement. Heinemann, 1999; 192pp; 0434007552 (hb) £17.99. Sabine Wichert, Northern Ireland Since 1945 (2nd ed), Longman, 1999; 269pp; 0582326788 (pb) £13.99 James Anderson and James Goodman (eds), Dis/Agreeing Ireland: Contexts, Obstacles, Hopes, Pluto Press; 284pp; 0745312802 (hb) £45 Gerard Murray, John Hume and the SDLP: Impact and Survival in Northern Ireland. Irish Academic Press, 1998; 328pp; 071656441(hb) £29.50 David Miller (ed), Rethinking Northern Ireland. Longman, 1998; 328 pp; 0582302870 (pb) £14.99 Paul Hainsworth (ed), Divided Society: Ethnic Minorities and Racism in Northern Ireland, Pluto Press, 1998; 288pp; 0745311962 (hbk) £45, 0745311954 (pb) £14.99 Marie‐Therese Fay, Mike Morrissey and Marie Smith (eds), Northern Ireland's Troubles: The Human Costs. Pluto Press, 1999; 229pp; 0745313795 (hb) £40 J. Anthony Gaughan (ed), Memoirs of Senator James G. Douglas: Concerned Citizen. UCD Press, 1998; xii+212pp; 1900621193 (hb) £24.99. Walter McDonald, Some Ethical Questions of Peace and War with introduction by Tom Garvin; UCD Press, 1998, ‐ first published 1919, xx+140pp; 1900621185 (pb) £9.95. P. S. O'Hegarty The Victory of Sinn Féin with introduction by Tom Garvin; UCD Press, 1998 ‐ first published 1924, xx+164pp; 1900621177 (pb) £10.95. James Lydon, The making of Ireland from ancient times to the present. Routledge, 1998; 440 pp; 0415013488 (pb) £19.99 Peter Hart, The I.R.A. and Its Enemies: Violence and Community in Cork, 1916–1923. Clarendon Press, 1998; 350pp; 0198205376 (hbk) £40 David McCullagh, A Makeshift Majority: The First Inter‐party Government, 1948–51. Institute of Public Administration, 1998; 340pp; 1872002692 (pb) £18. Eithne MacDermott, Clann na Poblachta, Cork University Press. 1998. 248pp; 1859181872 (pb) £12.95 Conor Cruise O'Brien, Memoir: My Life and Themes. Poolbeg Press, 1998; 460pp; 1853718777 (hb) £20.00. Richard English and Joseph Morrison Skelly (eds), Ideas Matter: Essays in Honour of Conor Cruise O'Brien, Poolbeg Press, 1998; 1853718823 £12.99 Mike Cronin, Sport and Nationalism in Ireland: Gaelic Games, Soccer and Irish Identity since 1884. Four Courts Press, 1999; 224pp; 1851824081 (hb) £35, 1851824561 (pb) £14.95 Eunan O'Halpin, Defending Ireland: the Irish State and its Enemies Since 1922. Oxford University Press, 1999; xvi + 382pp; 0198204264 (hbk) £29.95 William Crotty and David E. Schmitt (eds), Ireland and the Politics of Change. Longman, 1998; 250 pp; 0582328942 (pb) £14.99 Neil Collins (ed), Political Issues in Ireland Today (2nd ed.), Manchester University Press, 1999; 210pp; 0719054044 (pb) £12.99, 0719054036 (hb) £40 Frank Barry (ed), Understanding Ireland's Economic Growth. Macmillan, 1999; 256pp; 0333733622 (hbk) £45 Bobby McDonagh, Original Sin in a Brave New World: An account of the negotiation of the Treaty of Amsterdam. Institute of European Affairs, 1998; 1874109400 (pb) £15 Peter Mair, Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. Clarendon, 1998; 244pp; 019829235 (pb) £15.98 David Broughton and Mark Donovan (eds), Changing Party Systems in Western Europe. Pinter, 1999. 315pp; 1855673282 (pb) £16.99 Bill McSweeney (ed), Moral issues in international affairs: problems of European integration. Macmillan, 1998; 265pp; 0312211287 (hbk) £35 Chrystel Hug, The Politics of Sexual Morality in Ireland. Macmillan Press, 1999; 296pp; 0333662172 (pb) £16.99 Rick Wilford and Robert L Miller (eds), Women, Ethnicity and Nationalism: The politics of transition. Routledge, 1998; 224pp; 0415171377(pb) £14.99, 0415171369(hb) £45 Michael Marsh and Paul Mitchell (eds), How Ireland Voted 1997. PSAI Press/Westview, 1999; 335pp; 0813332184 (pb) £17.50 Yvonne Galligan, Eilis Ward and Rick Wilford (eds), Contesting Politics: Women in Ireland, North and South. PSAI Press/ Westview, 1999; 278 pp; 0813334179 (pb) £19.50

Issue Evolution in Political Science