Comment Volume Prediction Using Neural Networks and Decision Trees

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

Extensive work has been done on recognition of languages like Hindi, Kannada, Tamil, Bangala, Malayalam, Gurumukhi, Arabic, Farsi and Chinese etc. But a very few work has been done on Odia character Recognition. There are many fields like banking, postal system, and form processing etc. Which require effective digit recognition system for faster processing. In this paper a sincere attempt has been made to do a comparative study using different types of classifiers for handwritten Odia numerals. For feature extraction gradient and curvature based approaches are used. After the calculation of feature vector Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to reduce the size of feature vector. The reduced features are passed to SVM classifiers. The result obtained is compared with other classifiers such as Multilayer Neural Network (MNN), Decision tree(C5.0)and Discriminant Analysis (DA). From the experimental result it is observed that SVM based classifier achieved 90.5% accuracy with Curvature feature and 95.5% accuracy with gradient feature during validation.

This dissertation contributes with novel predictive modelling approaches to data-driven computational psychiatry and offers alternative analyses frameworks to the standard statistical analyses in psychiatric research. In particular, this document advances research in medical data mining, especially psychiatry, via two phases. In the first phase, this document promotes research by proposing synergistic machine learning and statistical approaches for detecting patterns and developing predictive models in clinical psychiatry data to classify diseases, predict treatment outcomes or improve treatment selections. In particular, these data-driven approaches are built upon several machine learning techniques whose predictive models have been pre-processed, trained, optimised, post-processed and tested in novel computationally intensive frameworks. In the second phase, this document advances research in medical data mining by proposing several novel extensions in the area of data classification by offering a novel decision tree algorithm, which we call PIDT, based on parameterised impurities and statistical pruning approaches toward building more accurate decision trees classifiers and developing new ensemblebased classification methods. In particular, the experimental results show that by building predictive models with the novel PIDT algorithm, these models primarily led to better performance regarding accuracy and tree size than those built with traditional decision trees. The contributions of the proposed dissertation can be summarised as follow. Firstly, several statistical and machine learning algorithms, plus techniques to improve these algorithms, are explored. Secondly, prediction modelling and pattern detection approaches for the first-episode psychosis associated with cannabis use are developed. Thirdly, a new computationally intensive machine learning framework for understanding the link between cannabis use and first-episode psychosis was introduced. Then, complementary and equally sophisticated prediction models for the first-episode psychosis associated with cannabis use were developed using artificial neural networks and deep learning within the proposed novel computationally intensive framework. Lastly, an efficient novel decision tree algorithm (PIDT) based on novel parameterised impurities and statistical pruning approaches is proposed and tested with several medical datasets. These contributions can be used to guide future theory, experiment, and treatment development in medical data mining, especially psychiatry.

Heart disease is one of the leading cause deaths of worldwide. Prediction of cardiovascular infection is a critical challenge in the area of clinical data analysis. Data mining techniques are providing an effective decision and significant results on data that are used widely for predicting. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach with aims to find a noteworthy method to diagnose heart disease prediction. In this research, a unique dataset was created by combining the Cleveland dataset and Stalog heart disease datasets collected from the UCI ML repository. The new dataset contains 14 medical parameters such as age, sex, blood pressure, and 568 instances for training and prediction heart disease. This paper offers a novel methodology of NNDT (Neural Network and Decision Tree) that uses Neural Network for training model and Decision Tree to test classification for better heart disease prediction. The performance of the proposed approach have been compared with Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, Voted Perceptron, and Decision Tree algorithms. The results showed that the accuracy and performance improved as compared to other techniques and methods. This study enables the researchers to analyze the heart disease data with a new approach to predict heart diseases to maintain human health.

For a university student, the main measure of success is whether or not they pass the modules for which they are enrolled. It is not always easy for a lecturer to determine whether or not a student will be successful as there may be various factors on which the final result of a student depends. Applying rules or common insights might aid a lecturer in identifying students who are struggling in a specific module. This may afford the lecturer the opportunity to devise an intervention; so as to enhance the chances of the student passing the module. To facilitate the gathering of information on which to base possible student academic interventions, this study makes use of an artificial neural network and decision tree to derive a series of insights and rules which a lecturer may use to identify struggling students. The artificial neural network and decision tree are both trained using supervised learning techniques. Individually, both the neural network and decision tree have an accuracy in excess of 77% and a sensitivity in excess of 83% on a test data set. Both models show a moderate level of agreement with a pre-labelled dataset.

This article uses machine learning techniques as fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy ANFISs, to develop and compare prediction models capable of relating pregnant women’s exposure to air pollutants, such as Nitrogen Dioxide and Particulate Matter, the mother’s age, and the number of prenatal consultations to the incidence of premature birth. In the current literature, studies can be found that relate prematurity to the exposure of pregnant women to NO2, O3, and PM10; to Toluene and benzene, mainly in the window 5 to 10 days before birth; and to PM10 in the week before birth. Both models used logistic regression to quantify the effects of pollutants as a result of premature birth. Datasets from Brazil—Departamento de Informatica do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) and Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (CETESB)—were used, covering the period from 2016 to 2018 and comprising women living in the city of São José dos Campos (SP), Brazil. In order to evaluate and compare the different techniques used, evaluation metrics were calculated, such as correlation (r), coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). These metrics are widely used in the literature due to their ability to evaluate the robustness and efficiency of prediction models. For the RMSE, MAPE, MSE, and MAE metrics, lower values indicate that prediction errors are smaller, demonstrating better model accuracy and confidence. In the case of (r) and R2, a positive and strong result indicates alignment and better performance between the real and predicted data. The neuro-fuzzy ANFIS model showed superior performance, with a correlation (r) of 0.59, R2 = 0.35, RMSE = 2.83, MAPE = 5.35%, MSE = 8.00, and MAE = 1.70, while the fuzzy model returned results of r = 0.20, R2 = 0.04, RMSE = 3.29, MSE = 10.81, MAPE = 6.67%, and MAE = 2.01. Therefore, the results from the ANFIS neuro-fuzzy system indicate greater prediction capacity and precision in relation to the fuzzy system. This superiority can be explained by integration with neural networks, allowing data learning and, consequently, more efficient modeling. In addition, the findings obtained in this study have potential for the formulation of public health policies aimed at reducing the number of premature births and promoting improvements in maternal and neonatal health.

In this paper we enhance the notion of anomaly detection and use both neural network (NN) and decision tree (DT) for intrusion detection. While DTs are highly successful in detecting known attacks, NNs are more interesting to detect new attacks. In our method we proposed a new approach to design the system using both DT and combination of unsupervised and supervised NN for Intrusion Detection System (IDS). By applying DT known attacks would be recognized with a quick execution time. Unknown attacks would be detected by applying the unsupervised NN based on hybrid of Self Organizing Map (SOM) for clustering attacks into smaller categories and supervised NN based on Backpropagation for detailed clustering.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

Abstract- Utilization data mining in banking marketing strategy is very effective. Prospective customer seg-mentation is one of the processes carried out in the banking marketing strategy. To support the results of the success rate of telemarketing personnel to market the product in its role of banking services that the process requires a prospective customer data, then data mining support is very important in the classification of the prospective customers of the bank so that it can predict the degree of success in product marketing such services. Based on mapping studies of support data mining on prospective customers to come is no classification algorithms are often used for the classification of a borrower among others Neural Network, Naive Bayes, Dececion Tree, K-NN and Logistic Regreesion, of this algorithm can result from the evaluation process by using Cross Validation, confusion matrix, ROC Curve and T-Test to determine the classification of data mining algo-rithms are the most accurate in predicting success in product mar-keting telemarketing services from the bank to do trials in the Neural Network algorithm was more accurate with an accuracy of 89.71% the AUC value of 0872, this may be a comparison of data mining classi-fication Seeing AUC values of the five methods, then five groups of classification algorithms including both because of its AUC value between 0.80-1.00. Keywords : Comparison of data mining, decision tree, naive Bayes, neural network, k-nn, logistic regression

The authors present the investigation of a new hybrid predictive model of Duplex Attention‐based Coupled LSTM Markov Averaged Neural Network, known as DACLMANN. The financial field, particularly the stock market, heavily relies on accurate predictive models. DACLMANN comprises four essential components: two LSTM blocks, an Averagiser and a Markov Neural Network block. The first LSTM block is composed of two hidden layers, each containing 50 neurons and a dense layer with 25 neurons. The second LSTM block consists of two hidden layers, each with 100 neurons, and a dense layer with 50 neurons. The Averagiser plays a crucial role by averaging the closing prices and predicted values from the first LSTM block, resulting in a 90% gain. These averaged values are then fed into the second LSTM block for further prediction. Finally, the predictions undergo evaluation using the Markov model, yielding the final prediction. To assess the performance of DACLMANN, it was tested on 22 years of stock prices for the AMZN index. The evaluation metrics used by the authors include an R2 of 0.76, mean absolute error of 6.81216, root mean square error of 8.6040, Precision of 1, Accuracy of 1, Recall of 1 and F1 of 1. Additionally, DACLMANN achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of less than 0.043% and an RMSPE of less than 2.1%. These results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model but also authenticate the prediction outcomes. DACLMANN offers several advantages over traditional predictive models in the stock market. By combining the strengths of Duplex Attention‐based Coupled LSTM, Averagiser, and Markov Neural Network, DACLMANN leverages the power of deep learning, attention mechanisms, and sequential modelling. This hybrid approach enables DACLMANN to capture intricate patterns and dependencies present in stock market data, leading to more accurate and reliable predictions. The robust evaluation metrics further validate the superiority of DACLMANN in predicting stock prices.

This article devises the Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods of designing models of short-term forecasting (in 12 h and 24 h horizons) of electricity production in a selected Small Hydropower Plant (SHP). Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) are difficult to predict due to weather variability. Electricity production by a run-of-river SHP is marked by the variability related to the access to instantaneous flow in the river and weather conditions. In order to develop predictive models of an SHP facility (installed capacity 760 kW), which is located in Southern Poland on the Skawa River, hourly data from nearby meteorological stations and a water gauge station were collected as explanatory variables. Data on the water management of the retention reservoir above the SHP were also included. The variable to be explained was the hourly electricity production, which was obtained from the tested SHP over a period of 3 years and 10 months. Obtaining these data to build models required contact with state institutions and private entrepreneurs of the SHP. Four AI methods were chosen to create predictive models: two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Base Functions (RBFs), and two types of decision trees methods, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). Finally, after applying forecast quality measures of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Coefficient of Determination (R2), the most effective model was indicated. The decision trees method proved to be more accurate than ANN models. The best GBDT models’ errors were MAPE 3.17% and MAE 9.97 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE 3.41% and MAE 10.96 kWh (for 24 h horizon). MLPs had worse results: MAPE from 5.41% to 5.55% and MAE from 18.02 kWh to 18.40 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE from 7.30% to 7.50% and MAE from 24.12 kWh to 24.83 kWh (for 24 h horizon). Forecasts using RBF were not made due to the very low quality of training and testing (the correlation coefficient was approximately 0.3).

This experimental study focused on the main and interaction effects of interactivity, product involvement and web localization on Filipino Internet users’ attitudes towards the Page and ad on Facebook Pages in the mobile telecommunications and airline industry in the Philippines. The experiment was conducted on Facebook and the respondents are Filipinos who are members of local airline and mobile telecommunications Facebook Pages in the Philippines. Findings show that variables in the same context interact with each other to influence attitudes. General results of the study show that interactivity has a direct effect towards the attitude towards the Page and an interaction between interactivity and product involvement will induce a more positive attitude towards the Page. It was also found that attitudes are different for each industry on the social network site Facebook. Industry specific findings and managerial contributions are further discussed in the research implications.

Accurate prediction of agricultural yield is extremely important to ensure food security and cope with the challenges created by climate change and natural disasters. Forecasting agricultural yield is a challenging task due to the complex nature of variables (fertiliser, rainfall, temperature and others) that affect agricultural production. This study employs six supervised machine learning algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to build a predictive model using 49 years of historical data (1973-2021) on paddy, wheat, and maize. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (rMSE). Results show that DT and RF models are the most precise with MSE 1% to 5%, MAE 8% to 21%, followed by SVM and CNN. Key predictors of crop yield include area cultivated, capital expenditure, banking expansion, rainfall, temperature, and fertilizers, while irrigation and road network were less significant. The study recommends that farmers prioritize commercial farming, agricultural equipment, and timely availability of fertilizer for application. The Government of Nepal (GoN) should redirect subsidies towards agricultural mechanization, ensure timely supply of fertilizer, and expand banking services in agricultural areas.

With the in-depth implementation of China’s “National Strategy for Building a Strong Transportation Network,” the scale of expressway construction has continued to expand. As a result, the number of high-fill and deep-cut subgrade projects under complex geological conditions has increased significantly, leading to a surge in landslide-related issues. Consequently, accurate prediction of slope displacement is of critical importance for early warning and prevention of landslide disasters. This study proposes a hybrid prediction model, VMD-MPA-LSSVM-LSTM (VMLL), which integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Using monitoring data from the high-fill embankment slope at Hongtuyao as the research subject, the VMLL model is employed to predict slope displacement based on small-sample data. The objective is to provide a more accurate method for early warning of slope displacement. Firstly, the original monitoring data are decomposed into trend displacement components and fluctuation displacement components using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Subsequently, the trend component and the fluctuation component are predicted using Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, respectively. Finally, the Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of the predictive models. Based on this framework, a VMLL-based slope displacement prediction model is constructed. To verify the superiority of the VMLL model, a comparative analysis was conducted against LSSVM, LSTM, and the VMD-LSSVM-LSTM models. The results demonstrate that the VMLL model achieves the highest prediction accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.4022%, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.016 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0206 mm, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 94.08%, and a Variance Accounted For (VAF) of 96.5%. Compared with the other three models, the VMLL model reduces the MAPE, MAE, and RMSE by 30.41–67.62%, 30.38–67.40%, and 27.32–71.00%, respectively. Meanwhile, it improves the R² and VAF by 5.95–217.51% and 0.38–11.48%, respectively. These improvements clearly demonstrate that the VMLL model outperforms the other models, indicating its significant advantage over single prediction models. Furthermore, three additional datasets were used to evaluate the model’s performance. The average values of the performance evaluation metrics for these datasets were 0.6207% (MAPE), 0.0238 mm(MAE), 0.0273 mm(RMSE), 90.33%(R²), and 96.81%(VAF), respectively. These results demonstrate the high accuracy and strong robustness of the proposed model in predicting both horizontal displacement and vertical settlement of slopes, providing a reliable methodological framework for slope stability assessment and landslide disaster early warning.

Social network service is very popular all around the world. Global social network service assists Chinese users to have more friends from different countries. Friend-making on social network service is not systematically documented and reported for Chinese. Making friends in social network service and making friends in real life include similar activities such as invitation, knowledge sharing and communication. Almost everything users can do in real life can be done through internet. For example, in social network service E websites such as Facebook users can share a photo with their friends as they do in real life. The difference between making friends in social network service and in real life exits on the way how these activities are done. For example, in real life photo sharing is usually accompanied with a face-to-face talking while in social network service it is mainly the online comments on the photo. Therefore it is interesting to find if Chinese user behavior on social network service is consistent with that in real life.Thus it is necessary to design social network service with consideration of Chinese usage pattern. For example, as Chinese tend to have more virtual friend social network service websites can recommend. Social network website can use online activity such as “campus star” to require Chinese user to explore other’s home page or use “explore” button to have user randomly go to strangers’ homepage. More virtual communication style can be added to increase ease of use. For example voice and video message can be applied in social network service in addition to text message.The result indicates that the Chinese participants have more virtual friends than German participants while German users contact their friends more often in real life. There is no big difference between Chinese and German participants on communicating with their friends and sharing information. The result shed light on future research on Chinese friend-making behavior on social network service and user interface design for Chinese.