Predictive Modelling Approach to Data-driven Computational Psychiatry

SummaryAccurate prediction of the solubility of chemical substances in solvents remains a challenge. The sparsity of high-quality solubility data is recognized as the biggest hurdle in the development of robust data-driven methods for practical use. Nonetheless, the effects of the quality and quantity of data on aqueous solubility predictions have not yet been scrutinized. In this study, the roles of the size and the quality of data sets on the performances of the solubility prediction models are unraveled, and the concepts of actual and observed performances are introduced. In an effort to curtail the gap between actual and observed performances, a quality-oriented data selection method, which evaluates the quality of data and extracts the most accurate part of it through statistical validation, is designed. Applying this method on the largest publicly available solubility database and using a consensus machine learning approach, a top-performing solubility prediction model is achieved.

In the last 20 years, there has been a marked increase in interest in the early detection and treatment of psychosis. Despite the various potential “prodromes” that have been identified and have helped to increase the accuracy in the detection of persons at-risk of developing psychoses, it is still not possible to predict the transition to psychosis with sufficient accuracy. Although some electroencephalography (EEG) studies, based on basic power-spectral and event-related potential analyses, have been conducted in the field of early detection, neural oscillations and their phase-synchronization across brain areas have been ignored. The present dissertation covers three different studies which, together, demonstrate that neural oscillations are disturbed in emerging psychosis. The first paper shows that at-risk patients with later transition to psychosis are characterized by abnormal localized brain activity and that inter-cortical areas of the brain are poorly synchronized. The second study shows that machine learning algorithms can detect patterns of abnormal brain activity predictive of later transitions to psychosis with promising accuracy. The third study reveals, in a cross-sectional manner, that patients who already had a first episode of psychosis at inclusion, already demonstrated the same abnormal patterns of brain activity revealed in at-risk patients with later transition to psychosis.

Software Bug Prediction (SBP) is an important issue in software development and maintenance processes, which concerns with the overall of software successes. This is because predicting the software faults in earlier phase improves the software quality, reliability, efficiency and reduces the software cost. However, developing robust bug prediction model is a challenging task and many techniques have been proposed in the literature. This paper presents a software bug prediction model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms. Three supervised ML algorithms have been used to predict future software faults based on historical data. These classifiers are Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The evaluation process showed that ML algorithms can be used effectively with high accuracy rate. Furthermore, a comparison measure is applied to compare the proposed prediction model with other approaches. The collected results showed that the ML approach has a better performance.

A major aspect in the development of advanced driving assistance systems (ADASs) is the research in developing human driving behavior prediction and recognition models. Recent contributions focus on developing these models for estimating different driving behaviors like lane or speed change. Thus, the models are incorporated into the ADAS to generate warnings and hints for safe maneuvers. Driving behavior recognition and prediction models are generally developed based on machine learning (ML) algorithms and are proven to generate accurate estimations. Previous review research contributions tend to focus on ML-based models for the prediction and recognition of speed change, trajectory change, and even driving styles. Due to high number of driving errors occurring during a lane change, a state-of-art review of different ML-based models for lane-changing behavior prediction and recognition is helpful to present a comparison between different models in terms of structure, influencing input variables, and performance. This enables the integration of the most efficient model for the development of ADASs to avoid accidents during a lane change. First, definitions and terms related to the model’s task and evaluation metrics used to evaluate the model’s performance are described to improve the readability. Then, the different input variables of the models affecting the lane-changing behaviors are presented. Next, a review of the models developed based on well-known approaches, such as artificial neural network (ANN), hidden Markov model (HMM), and support vector machine (SVM), using different input variables is given. Three lane-changing behaviors are focused on here: left/right lane change and lane keeping. The advantages and disadvantages of the different ML models with a comparison are summarized as well. Finally, the improvements required in the future are discussed.

Predicting wave forces on coastal bridges using genetic algorithm enhanced ensemble learning framework

Diabetes is a long-term health condition that impacts millions of people worldwide, and correct and timely diagnosis is required to manage it effectively. In the present research study, we propose an improved model of diabetes prediction based on the usage of Big Data Analytics (BDA) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for enhancing the predictability of diabetes. Our research is based on the ideas developed in the reference paper, where the application of BDA in enabling healthcare decisionmaking was proposed. With the inclusion of the usage of advanced ML algorithms like Decision Trees, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), we enhance predictability for the diagnosis of diabetes. We employed a comprehensive healthcare dataset with various health metrics, including blood pressure, cholesterol, BMI, smoking, and physical activity. The data was heavily preprocessed, ranging from feature engineering to normalization, to get better model performance. All the models were trained and tested on accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC-AUC. Among the models, Random Forest and ANN were better with higher accuracy, detecting diabetic patients at risk effectively. Our model not only increases prediction accuracy but also facilitates scalability with Big Data technology and practices. The ANN model, in particular, proved effective in finding complex patterns within the data, yielding a reliable solution towards real-time diabetes prediction. This effort illustrates the potential of integrating BDA and ML in healthcare for data-driven decision-making and supporting early diagnosis and management of diabetes. The model is deployed as an interactive user-friendly web application using Streamlet, where users can input health indicators and receive predictions from different models. Through its interactive interface, it facilitates healthcare professionals and patients by offering themreal-time information, thereby ultimately improving diabetes management and patient care.

An artificial intelligence boom is currently ongoing, mainly due to large language models, leading to significant interest in artificial intelligence and subsequently also in machine learning (ML). One area where ML is often applied, prediction modelling, has also long been a focus of conventional statistics. As a result, multiple studies have aimed to prove superiority of one of the two scientific disciplines over the other. However, we argue that ML and conventional statistics should not be competing fields. Instead, both fields are intertwined and complementary to each other. To illustrate this, we discuss some essentials of prediction modelling, elaborate on prediction modelling using techniques from conventional statistics, and explain prediction modelling using common ML techniques such as support vector machines, random forests, and artificial neural networks. We then showcase that conventional statistics and ML are in fact similar in many aspects, including underlying statistical concepts and methods used in model development and validation. Finally, we argue that conventional statistics and ML can and should be seen as a single integrated field. This integration can further improve prediction modelling for both disciplines (e.g. regarding fairness and reporting standards) and will support the ultimate goal: developing the best performing prediction models for the patient and healthcare provider.

This is a systematic literature review of the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms in geosciences, with a focus on environmental monitoring applications. ML algorithms, with their ability to analyze vast quantities of data, decipher complex relationships, and predict future events, and they offer promising capabilities to implement technologies based on more precise and reliable data processing. This review considers several vulnerable and particularly at-risk themes as landfills, mining activities, the protection of coastal dunes, illegal discharges into water bodies, and the pollution and degradation of soil and water matrices in large industrial complexes. These case studies about environmental monitoring provide an opportunity to better examine the impact of human activities on the environment, with a specific focus on water and soil matrices. The recent literature underscores the increasing importance of ML in these contexts, highlighting a preference for adapted classic models: random forest (RF) (the most widely used), decision trees (DTs), support vector machines (SVMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), principal component analysis (PCA), and much more. In the field of environmental management, the following methodologies offer invaluable insights that can steer strategic planning and decision-making based on more accurate image classification, prediction models, object detection and recognition, map classification, data classification, and environmental variable predictions.

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

This research presents an extensive point of reference for investigating the operation of several machine learning (ML) algorithms in postulating the multiclass classification problem regarding the forthcoming effects of Covid-19 on school closures. With the prompt closure of schools across the world in response to this pandemic, school-going children and teenagers are ruptured both mentally and physically. Hence, ML has come across to be a reliable component to forecast the scenario effectively. A dataset from UNESCO is trained and tested by ten supervised ML algorithms. A comprehensive analysis among the predictive ML models was executed which bought satisfactory results with regard to accuracy, precision, sensitivity, F1 score, ROC-AUC by hyper parameter optimization. In this regard, grid search cross validation (GridSearchCV) was utilized in order to obtain the optimal parameters. However, the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was also investigated and compared with the supervised ML models where ANN displayed maximum accuracy of 80.37%. After rigorous comparative analysis, Decision Tree (DT) portrayed the highest accuracy of 90.75%. Hence, it is evident that machine learning algorithm holds strong promise in forecasting the upcoming scenario of school closures due to Covid-19 and can contribute significantly in decision making for the welfare of the education system.

BackgroundBluetongue (BT) is a disease of concern to animal breeders, so the question on their minds is whether they can predict the risk of the disease before it occurs. The main objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of BT risk prediction by relying on machine learning (ML) approaches to help in fulfilling this inquiry. Several risk factors of BT that affect the occurrence and magnitude of animal infection with the virus have been reported globally. Additionally, risk factors, such as sex, age, species, and season, unevenly affect animal health and welfare. Therefore, the seroprevalence study data of 233 apparently healthy animals (125 sheep and 108 goats) from five different provinces in Egypt were used to analyze and compare the performance of the algorithms in predicting BT risk.ResultsLogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) were used to develop predictive BT risk models and compare their performance to the base model (LR). Model performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), accuracy, true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), precision, and F1 score. The results indicated that RF performed better than other models, with an AUC score of 81%, ANN of 79.6%, and DT of 72.85%. In terms of performance and prediction, LR showed a much lower value (AUC = 69%). Upon further observation of the results, it was discovered that age and season were the most important predictor variables reported in classification and prediction.ConclusionThe findings of this study can be utilized to predict and control BT risk factors in sheep and goats, with better diagnostic discrimination in terms of accuracy, TPR, FNR, FPR, and precision of ML models over traditional and commonly used LR models. Our findings advocate that the implementation of ML algorithms, mainly RF, in farm decision making and prediction is a promising technique for analyzing cross-section studies, providing adequate predictive power and significant competence in identifying and ranking predictors representing potential risk factors for BT.

Aim Cannabis use is common in people with psychotic disorders. However, the effect of cannabis on cognition in psychosis remains unclear. Our study investigates relationships between the history of cannabis use and cognitive performance in patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) during a one-year follow-up. Methods The present study included FEP (N = 91) and control (N = 61) groups. Cannabis use was evaluated with a self-report questionnaire, clinical assessment, and medical records during a lifetime and 12 months prior to the treatment onset (recent). Symptoms of psychosis and anxiety were evaluated on the brief psychiatric rating scale. Negative symptoms were assessed using the scale for the assessment of negative symptoms. Cognitive tests were used to evaluate neurocognition (summarized in the g factor) and social cognition. Crude regression analyses for the g factor included variables of cannabis use as independent variables. Full regression models were controlled for gender, education, and clinical symptoms. Results In the FEP group, men used cannabis more frequently than women. In the crude regression model for FEP patients, never having used cannabis was associated with a better neurocognitive profile at 12 months. In the full model, more severe anxiety symptoms were associated with better neurocognition at two months, and less severe negative symptoms were associated with better neurocognition at 12 months. Cannabis use was not associated with social cognition. No associations between cognitive performance and cannabis use emerged in the controls. Conclusion Negative and affective symptom severity in FEP was associated with cognitive performance to a greater degree than a lifetime history of cannabis use.

Background Interpretable machine learning (ML) for early detection of cancer has the potential to improve risk assessment and early intervention. Methods Data from 261 proteins related to inflammation and/or tumor processes in 123 blood samples collected from healthy persons, but of whom a sub‐group later developed squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue (SCCOT), were analyzed. Samples from people who developed SCCOT within less than 5 years were classified as tumor‐to‐be and all other samples as tumor‐free. The optimal ML algorithm for feature selection was identified and feature importance computed by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. Five popular ML algorithms (AdaBoost, Artificial neural networks [ANNs], Decision Tree [DT], eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], and Support Vector Machine [SVM]) were applied to establish prediction models, and decisions of the optimal models were interpreted by SHAP. Results Using the 22 selected features, the SVM prediction model showed the best performance (sensitivity = 0.867, specificity = 0.859, balanced accuracy = 0.863, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC‐AUC] = 0.924). SHAP analysis revealed that the 22 features rendered varying person‐specific impacts on model decision and the top three contributors to prediction were Interleukin 10 (IL10), TNF Receptor Associated Factor 2 (TRAF2), and Kallikrein Related Peptidase 12 (KLK12). Conclusion Using multidimensional plasma protein analysis and interpretable ML, we outline a systematic approach for early detection of SCCOT before the appearance of clinical signs.

Current maintenance intervals of mechanical systems are scheduled a priori based on the life of the system, resulting in expensive maintenance scheduling, and often undermining the safety of passengers. Going forward, the actual usage of a vehicle will be used to predict stresses in its structure, and therefore, to define a specific maintenance scheduling. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to map a reduced set of data coming from real-time measurements of a structure into a detailed/high-fidelity finite element analysis (FEA) model of the same system. As a result, the FEA-based ML approach will directly estimate the stress distribution over the entire system during operations, thus improving the ability to define ad-hoc, safe, and efficient maintenance procedures. The paper initially presents a review of the current state-of-the-art of ML methods applied to finite elements. A surrogate finite element approach based on ML algorithms is also proposed to estimate the time-varying response of a one-dimensional beam. Several ML regression models, such as decision trees and artificial neural networks, have been developed, and their performance is compared for direct estimation of the stress distribution over a beam structure. The surrogate finite element models based on ML algorithms are able to estimate the response of the beam accurately, with artificial neural networks providing more accurate results.

An intrusion detection system (IDS) is an important protection instrument for detecting complex network attacks. Various machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) algorithms have been proposed for implementing anomaly-based IDS (AIDS). Our review of the AIDS literature identifies some issues in related work, including the randomness of the selected algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria, the application of old datasets, or shallow analyses and validation of the results. This paper comprehensively reviews previous studies on AIDS by using a set of criteria with different datasets and types of attacks to set benchmarking outcomes that can reveal the suitable AIDS algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria. Specifically, this paper applies 10 popular supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms for identifying effective and efficient ML-AIDS of networks and computers. These supervised ML algorithms include the artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms, whereas the unsupervised ML algorithms include the expectation-maximization (EM), k-means, and self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithms. Several models of these algorithms are introduced, and the turning and training parameters of each algorithm are examined to achieve an optimal classifier evaluation. Unlike previous studies, this study evaluates the performance of AIDS by measuring the true positive and negative rates, accuracy, precision, recall, and F-Score of 31 ML-AIDS models. The training and testing time for ML-AIDS models are also considered in measuring their performance efficiency given that time complexity is an important factor in AIDSs. The ML-AIDS models are tested by using a recent and highly unbalanced multiclass CICIDS2017 dataset that involves real-world network attacks. In general, the k-NN-AIDS, DT-AIDS, and NB-AIDS models obtain the best results and show a greater capability in detecting web attacks compared with other models that demonstrate irregular and inferior results.