CURRENT TRENDS, CHALLENGES, AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE'S JUICE PRODUCT FOREIGN TRADE IN WARTIME CONDITIONS
Topicality. In the current environment, optimizing foreign trade in the juice product market is a highly relevant issue. The war has caused significant imbalances in production, logistics, and trade, particularly due to the destruction of enterprises, disruption of supply chains, loss of traditional sales markets, and increased production costs. However, despite these challenges, the market demonstrates potential for recovery through alignment with international trends and new opportunities for cooperation. Key trends include the growing demand for organic products, the implementation of innovative technologies, and a reorientation toward European markets. At the same time, the development of trade is influenced by economic, political, and technological factors, as well as behavioral trends such as consumer demand for natural juices. Expanding distribution channels, improving production standards, and enhancing product certification will contribute to increasing Ukraine’s competitiveness in global trade. Effective monitoring and strategic planning will enable Ukrainian producers to strengthen their market positions even under conditions of uncertainty. Aim and tasks. The purpose of this study is to identify current trends and influencing factors in the development of Ukraine's foreign trade in juice products, as well as to formulate priority directions for its advancement during the wartime and post-war periods. The objectives of the study are as follows: to identify key factors affecting the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers based on the analysis of global juice market development trends; to outline priority directions for improving foreign trade in juice products, taking into account the need to adapt to changes in the global economy; and to develop recommendations for stimulating the export of Ukrainian juice products during wartime and in the post-war recovery phase. Materials and methods. The research materials include the works of domestic and foreign scholars on the development of juice product markets, as well as analytical reports from international organizations studying the agri-food sector. To conduct the analytical review and identify trends in foreign trade development, data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, and international trade organizations were used. The main methods employed in the study include induction, analysis and synthesis, the system-structural approach, and statistical methods. For data visualization, tabular and graphical methods were applied. Research results. The trends in the development of the juice product market in Ukraine and globally have been analyzed. It is shown that despite the challenges of war, Ukraine continues to maintain its position as one of the key exporters of apple concentrate, which remains the primary product in the juice segment. It has been identified that global juice producers are focusing on the production of organic juices, the share of which in EU and North American countries reaches 23–28%. The largest juice exporters in the world are Brazil, Spain, and the Netherlands, while Ukraine ranks among the top 20 exporters. The study revealed that the dynamics of juice exports from Ukraine are showing growth. In particular, during the first quarter of 2023, 29,000 tons of juices—mainly apple juice—were exported, totaling over USD 48 million. The main export markets include the United States, Poland, and Austria. At the same time, imported juice products from the EU, China, and Brazil continue to play a significant role in Ukraine’s domestic market, especially in the segment of exotic juices. Promising directions for development include improving production technologies, increasing the share of high value-added products, and forming an effective foreign trade policy to stimulate exports. The growing demand for organic products requires Ukrainian producers to actively adapt to global standards and trends. Conclusion. It has been established that the war has significantly altered the volumes of juice exports and imports from Ukraine, leading to a redistribution of sales markets and a decline in competitiveness in certain areas. Despite a reduction in domestic consumption caused by socio-economic transformations, the volume of Ukrainian juice exports remained stable in 2023, primarily due to continued shipments of apple juice to markets in the United States, Poland, and Austria. A global trend toward the increasing share of organic juices has been identified, requiring Ukrainian producers to adapt to international standards and trends. At the same time, the import of juice products—particularly exotic juices—remains substantial due to limited domestic production capabilities. Promising directions for further research include improving production technologies, increasing the share of high value-added products, ensuring high-quality packaging and labeling, as well as developing new logistics systems and global value chains to strengthen Ukraine’s position in international juice markets.
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