Demographic situation in Eritrea

OBJECTIVES: To assess trends in fertility and infant mortality rates (IMR) in León, Nicaragua, and to examine the effect of women's education on these trends during 1964-1993, a period of...

Mortality and fertility rates are decreasing rapidly in many developing countries. It is argued that the indices commonly used as measures of these changes, i.e. infant mortality rate and fertility rate, ignore the interaction between mortality and fertility, and do not reflect their combined impact in lowering overall infant mortality. The paper proposes new indicators of infant mortality, termed fertility-adjusted infant mortality ratio (FIMR), age-specific, fertility-adjusted IMR (AFIMR), and total infant mortality ratio (TIMR) that are more sensitive to rapid demographic changes. These indicators include the combined effects of changes in both fertility and infant mortality rates on overall infant mortality in a region and appear to measure the effects of integrated health programmes better. Further, these conceptualize the mother-infant pair as an appropriate unit with which to monitor mortality, and may be used for guiding allocation of resources intended to lower infant mortality. The application and usefulness of these indicators have been illustrated, using one hypothetical example and empirical data from the maternal-child health and family-planning programme in Matlab, Bangladesh, as well as data from white and black population groups in the U.S.A. The results of these examples demonstrate that the new indicators are more sensitive than traditional measures when describing infant mortality, and may better reflect the perception in infant mortality status in the community.

Mortality and fertility rates were measured from 1981 to 1983 by prospective registration of vital events as part of a community-based malaria control and health development programme in Saradidi, Kenya. There was no obvious effect of providing chloroquine phosphate for treatment of malaria in each village on mortality or fertility rates. Crude death rates were 13.1 in the year before intervention (1 May 1981 to 30 April 1982) and 12.3 after intervention (1 September 1982 to 31 August 1983). Neonatal mortality increased from 36.8 per 1000 live births pre-intervention to 49.1 during intervention. There was a slight decline in post-neonatal (one to 12 months) mortality (72.8 to 67.0) and a significant drop in early childhood mortality (25.2 to 18.2). The change in mortality rates in these two age groups were fully explained by a high rate of measles mortality in the pre-intervention period. Measles accounted for 35.7% of 284 reported deaths in infants one to 12 months of age and for 40.9% of 230 deaths in children one to four years old. There was little change in reported malaria-specific mortality rates in infants and young children most likely because of a high level of chloroquine use for treatment of presumptive illness. Perinatal mortality by area ranged between 60.4 and 81.3 pre-intervention to 79.5 to 97.2 after the control programme was instituted. Crude birth rates by area remained stable at about 40 and general fertility rates were about 200. Both pre-intervention and during intervention infants were significantly more likely to have died without medical consultation than children one to four years. However, 79.2% of 284 infants and 90.7% of 193 children died in spite of having consulted a health worker prior to death. The data suggest that a measles vaccine programme would significantly reduce mortality rates in infants and young children. The fact that the majority of infants and young children died in spite of receiving medical attention indicates both the inadequacy of curative medical services in this high mortality setting as well as the necessity for promoting preventive health measures.

The preliminary results of Tanzania's 1988 census disclosed that the average annual rate of population growth decreased from 3.3% during 1967-78 to 2.8%. The growth of Dar es Salaam declined from 7.8% to 4.8% with a total of 1,723,000 people. Tanzania's total population numbered 23,174,336. The economic growth of 4.1% exceeded population growth. The population increased by 37% between 1978 and 1988. 10.1% of the population lived in the 20 largest towns in 1978; this increased to 12.7% in 1988. Population density increased from 20 people/sq km in 1978 to 26 in 1988. High density extended from Dar es Salaam northwest to around Lake Victoria. Many districts with agricultural advantages had a density of 100, and also exhibited signs of population pressure by the 1970s. In 1988 the male:female ratio stayed unchanged with 96 males for 100 females (with extremes of 84.5 and 108). In 16 of 20 towns the ratios were above average, and in 6 towns including Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Arusha, Moshi, Mtwara, and Bukoba, even the urban average of 110 was exceeded. In some towns, females surpassed males as a result of migration to cities to join husbands or make a living in trade or in the informal economic sector. Consequently, the sex ration decrease exceeded 10 points in Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, Shinyanga, and Bukoba. The average urban sex ratio decline was only 5 points. The fall of the population growth rate requires the examination of mortality and fertility rates to ascertain the causes.

To study the secular trend and characteristics of infant mortality rate due to premature birth or low birth weight (IMRPL) in China from 1996 to 2013. Data used in this study was collected from the population-based Child's Health Surveillance Network of China. The Cochran-Armitage Trend test and Poisson regression were used to test the trend of IMRPL and explore the differences of the trend among different regions or areas. The nationwide IMRPL was 629.9 per 100 000 live births in 1996 and it decreased to 214.6 per 100 000 live births in 2013. The average annual decline rate was 6.14%, while the proportion of infant mortality due to premature birth or low birth weight in all infant deaths was on the rise with the average annual growth rate of 1.52%. And the proportion increased to 22.6% in 2013. IMRPLin rural and urban areas fell 28.1% and 66.6% respectively during 1996 and 2013. But the differences between urban and rural areas was obvious. During the same period, the average IMRPLin the central region was 1.40 times (95%CI:1.31-1.49) of that in the eastern region. And the average IMRPL in the western region was 2.25 times (95%CI:2.12-2.40) of that in the eastern region. The differences among different regions was obvious. Male infant mortality rate due to premature birth or low birth weight was 1.09 times (95%CI:1.05-1.14) of that in female infant from 1996 to 2013. The risk of IMRPL decreased substantially in China from 1996 to 2013. And the risk of IMRPL decreased more in rural areas than that in urban areas. The differences among different regions and areas were obvious. Premature birth or low birth weight as one of main factors has become a serious threat for health of Chinese children.

Long‐finned pilot whales in the Strait of Gibraltar are distributed over the main shipping routes. This exposes them to risks of collisions and probable acoustic and physical disturbance. This species is also the target of whale‐watching operations. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual population size, survival rate, and population growth rate of pilot whales occurring in the Strait and their inter‐annual variation using photo‐identification. A robust design was used to estimate all three parameters. A total of 10,784 individual pilot whale fins were photographed and analyzed. The population size estimation in summer ranged from a low of 147 individuals in 1999 to a high of 265 individuals in 2003. The annual population growth rate was estimated from mark recapture models to be 5.5%. The survival rate of adults was estimated at 0.982 (95% CI: 0.955–0.993). The same individuals have been observed between years. This suggests that this population is resident in the Strait, at least during summer. This study provides baseline knowledge prior to a predicted increase in shipping traffic throughout the main foraging area due to the opening in 2007 of a major shipping harbor along the Moroccan coast of the Strait.

This paper examines the determinants of infant and child mortality variations in Jordan Yemen Egypt and Tunisia using data from WFS surveys. The analysis considers biological correlates of mortality--mothers age birth order birth interval and previous infant loss--and several social factors--mothers and fathers education mothers residence fathers occupation and mothers work experience since marriage. The estimates for the 4 countries show large variations in the mortality rates and an expected pattern of declining infant and child mortality during the period of 20 years prior to the survey. Further the proportionate decline in child mortality in each country was generally greater than the proportionate decline in infant mortality. A persistent pattern of higher child mortality for females than for males is found suggesting preferential care and treatment of male offspring. The higher mortality risk is found for infants born to very young and very old mothers with short previous birth intervals of higher birth orders and where the previous infant had died. Among the socioeconomic characteristics the education of the mother and rural-urban residence are found to affect infant survival. In childhood among the demographic factors only birth interval shows a significant effect on mortality. The risk of child mortality decreases considerably with the increase in the birth interval. The analysis of the effect of breastfeeding on mortality although based on limited information clearly shows the beneficial effect of breastfeeding on the infants survival especially during the early months of life. For all countries the mortality rate for the non-breastfeeders is substantially higher than for the breastfeeders even when the effect of the other covariates is controlled.

This time-series analysis examines during 1860-1910 the impact of changes in local prices of agricultural commodities on wages among men and women in Sweden and the impact of changes in wages on fertility decline child mortality urbanization and improved social conditions. Linear ordinary least squares models are set up to determine whether demand-induced increases in womens wages relative to mens are significant factors in explaining Swedish total fertility rates. Data are obtained from 25 counties and the city of Stockholm among pooled observations for six time periods during 1860-64 and 1910-14. This period is marked by a total fertility decline of 28% a marital fertility decline of 26% and a child mortality decline of 52%. Explanatory variables are the relative prices of main agricultural outputs employment outside of agriculture the proportion of urban population and the child mortality rate. Findings indicate a significant relationship between child mortality and total fertility and specific fertility rates among women aged 20-39 years. A doubling of the male real wage rate was significantly associated with earlier marriage higher birth rates among women aged 15-29 years and lower birth rates among women aged 35-49 years. The ratio of male wages to female wages was associated with a decline in birth rates at all ages with the exception of teenagers. 66% of fertility increase was due to declines in child mortality but this increase was counterbalanced by fertility decline among older women. Child mortality and urbanization depressed marital fertility. Male wages increased the proportion married. A 10% increase in the male/female wage rate was associated with a 25% reduction in the total fertility rate. Another 25% increase in the male/female wage rate was associated with a 50% reduction in child mortality. It is concluded that the value of womens time had a key impact on the Swedish fertility transition.

The study aimed to estimate the rate of growth of effective demand for poultry products in Egypt until 2015, to compare it with the projected growth in production estimated from time series 1991-2010, The results showed that The average annual growth rate M effective demand for chicken meat was estimated at about 2.3% per capita and 4.4% at the national level -after adding population growth-which was expect. to face a lower growth in domestic Proudhon of about ) 9% per year. These results would indict an expected small shortfall, due to an expected modest growth in demand for chicken me.. Which M turn was not only due to a relatively low income elasticity of demand for chick. meat (0.423), it was also due to relative low population growth rate (2.07%). The annual growth rate per capita of table eggs estimated as 1.08, and the national annual growth rate of effective demand for table eggs was about 3%, that would face an annual growth rate in supply from domestic production of about 3.06% Such expectations indicated an excess in production than demand for the table eggs market which in turn would Dad ta recession in the domestic table eggs industry, unless a development in demand associated with diversity in the types of supplied products would exist. However the estimated annual rate of growth in prices of both products was 7%,8% , which might imply high growth in cost of production behind the high growth in price in table eggs and due to red meat demand pressure on the demand for chicken meat with improvement in technology towards lower production costs. The study provided some recommendations, providing market incentives to export expected excess table eggs production to the nearest markets of deficit such as the Libyan market and Gaza Strip, to release the current barriers on imports frozen broiler of reasonable quality and moderate price as well as encouraging more growth in production associated with improvement in technology towards lower production nut. in order m absorb part of the Increasing demand for red meat which would be reflected in higher red meat Price and greater pressure on the consumption of thicken meat

Infant mortality rate is a proxy measure of population health. Previous studies on the infant mortality rate in Ethiopia did not consider measurement errors in the measured variables and had a one-directional effect; little emphasis was placed on testing multiple causal paths at the same time. We used structural equation modelling for a better understanding of the direct, indirect, and total effects among causal variables in a single model. A path analysis was part of an algorithm providing equations that were relating the variances and covariances of the indicators. From the results, the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was significantly mediating the influence of out-of-pocket expenditure (OOP) on infant mortality rate (IMR), and the fertility rate (FR) was significantly mediating the influence of GDP to IMR (β = 1.168, p < 0.001). The GDP affects the IMR directly and indirectly while the OOP affects IMR indirectly. This study showed that there was a causal linkage between the World Bank Health and Population Variables for causing IMR in Ethiopia. The MMR and FR were found to be the intermediate indicators in this study. Through the indicators, FR had the highest standardised coefficients for increasing the IMR. We recommended that the existing interventions to reduce IMR be strengthened.

Based on the data from China Statistical Yearbooks and China’s population censuses, this paper provides a systematic introduction to changes in the size of China’s population over the 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. It analyzes population size and crude birth rate, crude death rate, natural increase rate and total fertility rate, all of which have an impact on population size in both the temporal and spatial dimensions. The paper divides China into sluggish Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) regions, recovering AAGR regions, and thriving AAGR regions. Challenges that may result from China’s demographic changes and strategies to address those challenges are discussed.

Public health spending on infant and child mortality in India during the years 1980–2006

A researcher used censuses and surveys to analyze 1966-1976 and 1976-1986 population data to compare population growth and fertility of Iran under the Shah with those of theocratic Iran. Between 1966-1976 the government introduced policies which improved the legal and social status of women and promoted fertility control. These resulted in a reduction in the annual population growth rate from 3.1-2.7%. In fact the crude birth rate fell from 49-42.7. Yet the rural birth rate (49.1) was still 1 of the highest in the world. A rising age at marriage contributed to the fall in fertility. For example in 1966 46.5% of 15-19 year old women were married compared to 34.2% in 1976. In fact the singulate mean age of marriage increased from 18.4-19.7. Further the percentage of women of reproductive age who were married decreased 81-75% between 1966-1976. Moreover age specific fertility rates fell for all 20-40 year old women. Indeed total fertility declined from 7.7-6.3. This was more pronounced in urban areas (6.9-4.4). As a result of the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war population size increased rapidly from 33.7-49.4 million (1976-1986)--3.8% annual growth rate. Further the crude birth rate increased 12% (1986 47.6). In addition at least 1.8 million people from Afghanistan sought refuge in Iran. Moreover the age at 1st marriage was not any higher than in 1986 than it was in 1976. In fact the government reduced the legal age to 9 for females and 14 for males. Further it abolished the family planning council. In addition the proportion of 15-59 year old married women only decreased 3% between 1976-1986 compared to 6% between 1976-1986. Age specific fertility rates increased significantly especially for 40-44 year olds (32%). Further total fertility rose to 7 and the increase was especially high in urban areas (16% increase compared to 8% in rural areas). As of the end of 1991 there were indications that the government recognized the population problem and had taken steps to promote family planning.

BackgroundChild mortality has become a prominent public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The mortality rates can in part be translated to how communities meet the health needs of children and address key household and environmental risk factors. Though discussions on the trends and magnitude of child mortality continue as to strategize for a lasting solution, large gap exists specifically in family characteristics associated with child death. Moreover, household dynamics of child mortality in SSA is under researched despite the fact that mortality rates remain high. This study aimed to examine the influence of household structure on child mortality in SSA.MethodsSecondary data from birth histories in recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 35 SSA countries were used in this study. The total sample data of children born in the 5 years prior to the surveys were 384,747 births between 2008 and 2017. Unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to model infant and under-five mortality. The measure of association was hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical test was conducted at p < 0.05 level of significance.ResultsTotal infant mortality rates were highest in Sierra Leone (92 deaths per 1000 live births), Chad (72 deaths per 1000 live births) and Nigeria (69 deaths per 1000 live births), respectively. Furthermore, total rates of under-five mortality across 35 SSA countries were highest in Cameroon (184 deaths per 1000 live births), Sierra Leone (156 deaths per 1000 live births) and Chad (133 deaths per 1000 live births). The risk of infant mortality was higher in households of polygyny, compared with households of monogyny (HR = 1.23; CI 1.16, 1.29). Households with large number of children (3–5 and ≥ 6) had higher risk of infant mortality, compared with those with 1–2 number of children. Infants from mothers with history of multiple union had 16% increase in the risk of infant mortality, compared with those from mothers from only one union (HR = 1.16; CI 1.09, 1.24). Furthermore, under-five from female household headship had 10% significant reduction in the risk of mortality, compared with those from male household headship (HR = 0.90; CI 0.84, 0.96). The risk of under-five mortality was higher in households of polygyny, compared with monogyny (HR = 1.33; CI 1.28, 1.38). Households with large number of children (3–5 and ≥ 6) had higher risk of under-five mortality, compared with those with 1–2 number of children ever born. Under-five from mothers with history of multiple union had 30% increase in the risk of mortality, compared with those from mothers from only one union (HR = 1.30; CI 1.24, 1.36).ConclusionHousehold structure significantly influences child mortality in SSA. Knowledge of drivers of infant and child death is crucial in health policy, programmes designs and implementation. Therefore, we suggest that policies to support strong healthy families are urgently needed to improve children’s survival.

Introduction In Kazakhstan, cervical cancer (CC) takes 2nd place among woman cancer and 7th place in general cancer mortality. Cytological screening in country have started in 2008. Kazakhstan plans to join the program for the global elimination of cervical cancer by introducing vaccination, improving screening and treatment. Methods The analysis was carried out using the National Cancer Register (2020). The incidence and mortality in the period before the introduction of screening (2004–2007) were studied. The screening period is conditionally divided into the first stage (2008–2014) and the second stage (2015–2018). Results In 2004–2007, the average annual incidence was 15.1 per 100,000 women. Indicators varied from 14.5 to 15.8 with an average annual growth ratio +1.9%. The average annual mortality rate was 7.4 per 100,000 female population fluctuating within 7.0–7.6%. After the introduction of screening, an increase in the incidence was noted with the ratio of 19.9–20.1 per 100,000 of women. The average annual incidence in the first stage of screening was 17.4% with an average annual growth rate +3.9%, whereas, the second stage showed a decrease in incidence with the average growth rate T=-1.4%, and the average annual incidence at 18.9%. Mortality in the first stage had an annual growth rate of T=+1.9%, in the second – T=-5.4%. Screening increased stage I from 41.7% to 62.5%, and pre-cancer – from 0.06% to 0.51%. Conclusion In the first eight years of screening, an increase of incidence and mortality was noted. Further, the growth of the initial stage and pre-cancer diseases was pointed out.