Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis

This report describes the selection of water compositions for the total system performance assessment (TSPA) model of results from the thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) seepage model documented in ''Drift-Scale THC Seepage Model'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169856]). The selection has been conducted in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Coupled Processes (Mountain-Scale TH/THC/THM, Drift-Scale THC Seepage, and Post-Processing Analysis for THC Seepage) Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171334]). This technical work plan (TWP) was prepared in accordance with AP-2.27Q, ''Planning for Science Activities''. Section 1.2.3 of the TWP describes planning information pertaining to the technical scope, content, and management of this report. The post-processing analysis for THC seepage (THC-PPA) documented in this report provides a methodology for evaluating the near-field compositions of water and gas around a typical waste emplacement drift as these relate to the chemistry of seepage, if any, into the drift. The THC-PPA inherits the conceptual basis of the THC seepage model, but is an independently developed process. The relationship between the post-processing analysis and other closely related models, together with their main functions in providing seepage chemistry information for the Total System Performance Assessment for the License Application (TSPA-LA), are illustrated in Figure 1-1. The THC-PPA provides a data selection concept and direct input to the physical and chemical environment (P&CE) report that supports the TSPA model. The purpose of the THC-PPA is further discussed in Section 1.2. The data selection methodology of the post-processing analysis (Section 6.2.1) was initially applied to results of the THC seepage model as presented in ''Drift-Scale THC Seepage Model'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169856]). Other outputs from the THC seepage model (DTN: LB0302DSCPTHCS.002 [DIRS 161976]) used in the P&CE (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169860], Section 6.6) were also subjected to the same initial selection. The present report serves as a full documentation of this selection and also provides additional analyses in support of the choice of waters selected for further evaluation in ''Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169860], Section 6.6). The work scope for the studies presented in this report is described in the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171334]) and other documents cited above and can be used to estimate water and gas compositions near waste emplacement drifts. Results presented in this report were submitted to the Technical Data Management System (TDMS) under specific data tracking numbers (DTNs) as listed in Appendix A. The major change from previous selection of results from the THC seepage model is that the THC-PPA now considers data selection in space around the modeled waste emplacement drift, tracking the evolution of pore-water and gas-phase composition at the edge of the dryout zone around the drift. This post-processing analysis provides a scientific background for the selection of potential seepage water compositions.

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents the development of an expected-case model for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport that will be described in terms of the representativeness of models of the natural system. The expected-case model will provide an evaluation of the effectiveness of the natural barriers, assess the impact of conservatism in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA), and support the development of further models and analyses for public confidence building. The present models used in ''Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation'' (Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) 2000 [1532461]) underestimate the natural-barrier performance because of conservative assumptions and parameters and do not adequately address uncertainty and alternative models. The development of an expected case model for the UZ natural barrier addresses issues regarding flow-pattern analysis and modeling that had previously been treated conservatively. This is in line with the Repository Safety Strategy (RSS) philosophy of treating conservatively those aspects of the UZ flow and transport system that are not important for achieving regulatory dose (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153246], Section 1.1.1). The development of an expected case model for the UZ also provides defense-in-depth in areas requiring further analysis of uncertainty and alternative models. In general, the value of the conservative case is to provide a more easily defensible TSPA for behavior of UZ flow and transport processes at Yucca Mountain. This AMR has been prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (Bechtel SAIC Company (BSC) 2001 [155051], Section 1.3 - Work Package 4301213UMG). The work scope is to examine the data and current models of flow and transport in the Yucca Mountain UZ to identify models and analyses where conservatism may be reduced and uncertainty may be better characterized either through new analyses or development of new, alternative, models. This AMR supports Site Recommendation (SR) activities by documenting analyses and models reported in ''FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses, Volume 1: Scientific Bases and Analyses'' (BSC 2001 [155950]). However, except for the model results reported in Section 6.4.2, this AMR does not support TSPA as documented in either ''FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses, Volume 2: Performance Analyses'' (BSC 2001 [1546591]) or ''Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153246]). Furthermore, this AMR represents scoping studies to aid in determining whether work beyond the scope of the models and analyses used to support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153246]) is warranted. If the decision is made to use any of these models and analyses for TSPA for License Application, further verification and validation will be required. The model results reported in Section 6.4.2 are used for TSPA sensitivity studies as documented in ''FY01 Supplemental Science and Performance Analyses, Volume 2: Performance Analyses'' (BSC 2001 [154659], Section 3.2.2.3).

PurposeThe objectives of this paper are the application of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in atmospheric dispersion modeling to the emission dispersion model (EDM) to study the prediction of atmospheric dispersion of NO2 generated by an industrial fire, whose results are useful for fire safety applications. The EDM is used to predict the level concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emitted by an industrial fire in a plant located in an industrial region site in Algeria.Design/methodology/approachThe SA was defined for the following input parameters: wind speed, NO2 emission rate and viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by simulating the air quality impacts of fire on an industrial area. Two SA methods are used: a local SA by using a one at a time technique and a global SA, for which correlation analysis was conducted on the EDM using the standardized regression coefficient.FindingsThe study demonstrates that, under ordinary weather conditions and for the fields near to the fire, the NO2 initial concentration has the most influence on the predicted NO2 levels than any other model input. Whereas, for the far field, the initial concentration and the wind speed have the most impact on the NO2 concentration estimation.Originality/valueThe study shows that an effective decision-making process should not be only based on the mean values, but it should, in particular, consider the upper bound plume concentration.

ABSTRACTShort-term static tests were conducted with a surrogate high-level waste glass to measure the effects of pH and dissolved iron on the glass dissolution rate. The tests were conducted to determine if a term to account for the effects of dissolved iron is needed in the glass degradation model developed for Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) calculations for the Yucca Mountain disposal system license application. The glass degradation model includes terms for dependencies on temperature, pH, and chemical affinity. A series of tests was conducted at 90 °C in various pH solutions without iron and with added FeCl3, Fe2O3, Fe3O4, and FeOOH. Tests were conducted at glass surface area/solution volume (S/V) ratios about 2 and 10 m-1for between 2 and 21 days. Solution concentrations of boron were used to measure the extent of reaction and calculate the glass dissolution rates. Similar rates were measured in tests conducted with and without iron at each pH. Both the results of the tests with and without iron showed V-shaped pH dependence curves with minima at near-neutral pH values. The pH dependencies (η) are about 0.44 in basic solutions and –0.49 in acidic solutions, based on the combined results of tests with and without iron. These are within the range of values for the pH dependence in the TSPA model for site recommendation.

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings).

For nuclear waste management, an important mechanism by which radioactive waste components are isolated from returning to the human environment, the biosphere, is by the geological barrier in which the effectiveness of the barrier is characterized by in-situ retardation factor, i.e., the transport rate of a radionuclide relative to that of groundwater. As part of natural analog studies of the Yucca Mountain Project of the U. S. Department of Energy, we propose such characterization by using naturally-occurring decay-series radioisotopes as an analog. We collected large-volume (>1000 liters) groundwater samples from three wells (PB, Pozos, and PB4, respectively) near the Nopal I Uranium Ore site at Pena Blanca, Mexico, by using an in-situ Mn-cartridge filtration technique for analysis of short-lived decay-series radionuclides. Results show that the activities of short-lived radioisotopes ({sup 228}Ra, {sup 224}Ra and {sup 223}Ra) and activity ratios of {sup 224}Ra/{sup 228}Ra and {sup 224}Ra/{sup 223}Ra are higher at PB and Pozos than at PB4. In contrast, the {sup 210}Po activity is much lower at PB and Pozos than at PB4. The high Ra activities and activities ratios at PB and Pozos are attributable to the high alpha-recoil input from the aquifer rocks, while the high {sup 210}Po activity at PB4 is due to the enhanced colloidal transport. Based on a uranium-series transport model, we estimate that the in-situ retardation factor of Ra is (0.43 {+-} 0.02) x 10{sup 3} at PB, (1.68 {+-} 0.08) x 10{sup 3} at Pozos, and (1.19 {+-} 0.08) x 10{sup 3} at PB4 and that the mean fracture width in the aquifer rocks is about 0.23 {micro}m at PB, 0.37 {micro}m at Posos, and 4.0 {micro}m at PB4, respectively. The large fracture width at PB4 as derived from the model provides an additional evidence to the inference from the Po measurements that particle-reactive radionuclides are transported mainly as colloidal forms through the large fractures in rocks. Our model also suggests that in addition to alpha recoil, decay of {sup 226}Ra from the adsorbed phases also contributes a significant source of {sup 222}Rn to groundwater. It appears that the information obtained from this study provides useful testing and validation for the Yucca Mountain total system performance assessment model (TSPA).

Investigation programs for and construction of radioactive waste repositories are carried out worldwide to dispose the accumulated wastes. The existing guides for developing the disposal system include the consideration of site-specific conditions. As most sites can be characterized by having similar geological conditions, the ones with special features require unique solutions. One of these sites is the Bataapati site in Hungary which is characterized by its compartmentalized hydraulic conditions. The hydraulic compartmentalization of the site provides favorable conditions for the disposal of radioactive wastes but may also require the development of new disposal concepts and investigation methods. Hydrogeological and total system performance assessment models were used to investigate the possible evolution of the disposal system based on whether or not the hydraulically compartmentalized conditions prevail after the final closure of the repository. The results demonstrate the high sensitivity of the total system performance on a single feature, namely the efficiency of the bulkheads to be constructed in the access tunnels where they had penetrated the compartment boundaries. Based on our investigations we propose to consider hydraulically compartmentalized systems as a favorable alternative for radioactive waste disposal.

The purpose of this report is to document the abstraction model being used in total system performance assessment (TSPA) model calculations for radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone (UZ). The UZ transport abstraction model uses the particle-tracking method that is incorporated into the finite element heat and mass model (FEHM) computer code (Zyvoloski et al. 1997 [DIRS 100615]) to simulate radionuclide transport in the UZ. This report outlines the assumptions, design, and testing of a model for calculating radionuclide transport in the UZ at Yucca Mountain. In addition, methods for determining and inputting transport parameters are outlined for use in the TSPA for license application (LA) analyses. Process-level transport model calculations are documented in another report for the UZ (BSC 2004 [DIRS 164500]). Three-dimensional, dual-permeability flow fields generated to characterize UZ flow (documented by BSC 2004 [DIRS 169861]; DTN: LB03023DSSCP9I.001 [DIRS 163044]) are converted to make them compatible with the FEHM code for use in this abstraction model. This report establishes the numerical method and demonstrates the use of the model that is intended to represent UZ transport in the TSPA-LA. Capability of the UZ barrier for retarding the transport is demonstrated in this report, and by the underlying process model (BSC 2004 [DIRS 164500]). The technical scope, content, and management of this report are described in the planning document ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Transport Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171282]). Deviations from the technical work plan (TWP) are noted within the text of this report, as appropriate. The latest version of this document is being prepared principally to correct parameter values found to be in error due to transcription errors, changes in source data that were not captured in the report, calculation errors, and errors in interpretation of source data.

This study investigates the impact of melting/binding rates (referred to hereafter as the parameters) over the polymers and monomers on the dynamics of carbon-monoxide-mediated sickle cell hemoglobin (HbS) de-polymerization. Two approaches, namely the traditional sensitivity analysis (TSA) and the multi-parameter sensitivity analysis (MPSA), have been developed and applied to the mathematical model system to quantify the sensitivities of polymers and monomers to the parameters. The Runge-Kutta method and the Monte-Carlo simulation are employed for the implementation of the sensitivity analyses. The TSA utilizes the traditional sensitivity functions (TSFs). The MPSA enumerates the overall effect of the model input parameters on the output by perturbing the model input parameters simultaneously within large ranges. All four concentrations (namely, de-oxy HbS monomers, CO-bound HbS monomers, de-oxy Hbs polymer and CO-bound HbS polymer) as model outputs, and all four binding/melting rates (namely, the CO binding and melting rates for polymers and monomers) as input parameters are considered in this study. The sensitivity results suggest that TSA and MPSA are essentially consistent.

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document.

The tephra dispersal model used by the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) to evaluate the potential consequences of a volcanic eruption through the waste repository must incorporate simplifications in order to function within a large Monte-Carlo style performance assessment framework. That is, the explicit physics of the conduit, vent, and eruption column processes are abstracted to a 2-D, steady-state advection-dispersion model (ASHPLUME) that can be run quickly over thousands of realizations of the overall system model. Given the continuous development of tephra dispersal modeling techniques in the last few years, we evaluated the adequacy of this simplified model for its intended purpose within the YMP total system performance assessment (TSPA) model. We evaluated uncertainties inherent in model simplifications including (1) instantaneous, steady-state vs. unsteady eruption, which affects column height, (2) constant wind conditions, and (3) power-law distribution of the tephra blanket; comparisons were made to other models and published ash distributions. Spatial statistics are useful for evaluating differences in these model output vs. results using more complex wind, column height, and tephra deposition patterns. However, in order to assess the adequacy of the model for its intended use in TSPA, we evaluated the propagation of these uncertainties through FAR, the YMP ash redistribution model, which utilizes ASHPLUME tephra deposition results to calculate the concentration of nuclear waste-contaminated tephra at a dose-receptor population as a result of sedimentary transport and mixing processes on the landscape. Questions we sought to answer include: (1) what conditions of unsteadiness, wind variability, or departure from simplified tephra distribution result in significant effects on waste concentration (related to dose calculated for the receptor population)? (2) What criteria can be established for the adequacy of a tephra dispersal model within the TSPA framework?

Performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) is vital when developing a patient-specific physiological model because it can quantify model output uncertainty and estimate the effect of each of the model's input parameters on the mathematical model. By providing this information, UQ and SA act as diagnostic tools to evaluate model fidelity and compare model characteristics with expert knowledge and real world observation. Computational efficiency is an important part of UQ and SA methods and thus optimization is an active area of research. In this work, we investigate a new efficient sampling method for least-squares polynomial approximation, weighted approximate Fekete points (WAFP). We analyze the performance of this method by demonstrating its utility in stochastic analysis of a cardiovascular model that estimates changes in oxyhemoglobin saturation response. Polynomial chaos (PC) expansion using WAFP produced results similar to the more standard Monte Carlo in quantifying uncertainty and identifying the most influential model inputs (including input interactions) when modeling oxyhemoglobin saturation, PC expansion using WAFP was far more efficient. These findings show the usefulness of using WAFP based PC expansion to quantify uncertainty and analyze sensitivity of a oxyhemoglobin dissociation response model. Applying these techniques could help analyze the fidelity of other relevant models in preparation for clinical application.

A method for independent modelling in support of regulatory review of dose assessments

Purpose: In particle therapy, treatment planning and evaluation are frequently based on biological models to estimate the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) or the equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2). In the context of the linear-quadratic model, these quantities depend on biological parameters (α, β) for ions as well as for the reference radiation and on the dose per fraction. The needed biological parameters as well as their dependency on ion species and ion energy typically are subject to large (relative) uncertainties of up to 20–40% or even more. Therefore it is necessary to estimate the resulting uncertainties in e.g. RBE or EQD2 caused by the uncertainties of the relevant input parameters. Methods: We use a variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) approach, in which uncertainties in input parameters are modeled by random number distributions. The evaluated function is executed 10{sup 4} to 10{sup 6} times, each run with a different set of input parameters, randomly varied according to their assigned distribution. The sensitivity S is a variance-based ranking (from S = 0, no impact, to S = 1, only influential part) of the impact of input uncertainties. The SA approach is implemented for carbon ion treatment plans on 3D patient data,more » providing information about variations (and their origin) in RBE and EQD2. Results: The quantification enables 3D sensitivity maps, showing dependencies of RBE and EQD2 on different input uncertainties. The high number of runs allows displaying the interplay between different input uncertainties. The SA identifies input parameter combinations which result in extreme deviations of the result and the input parameter for which an uncertainty reduction is the most rewarding. Conclusion: The presented variance-based SA provides advantageous properties in terms of visualization and quantification of (biological) uncertainties and their impact. The method is very flexible, model independent, and enables a broad assessment of uncertainties. Supported by DFG grant WI 3745/1-1 and DFG cluster of excellence: Munich-Centre for Advanced Photonics.« less