Does devaluation cause stagflation?

Production is an activity carried out by a company to add use to an object or create new objects that are more useful for everyone to meet their needs. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the textile sector. During this pandemic, demand in the local market has decreased significantly. The stock of goods owned by the local market cannot accommodate the decrease in demand. For convection or garment companies, the price of raw materials has increased by up to 30%. This increase certainly has an impact that makes it difficult to get raw materials for the production process. These results indicate that when the price of raw materials increases, there will be an increase in production, but when the price of raw materials decreases, it will make production decreases. An increase in production when the price of raw materials increases is a sign that garment business actors are still trying to meet consumer needs for garment products. This also indicates that garment entrepreneurs continue to increase production when raw material prices increase, which indirectly indicates that the garment industry has good potential to survive the COVID-19 pandemic.

The prices of raw materials necessary for production play an important role in the production decisions of farmers, and thus in shaping the level of supply of agricultural raw materials. The constant increase in the prices of raw materials for production increases its costs. Therefore, it should be noted that the rising prices of fuel and fertilizers affect the decisions and profitability of plant production. In connection with the above, this study attempts to indicate the impact of changes in fertilizer and fuel prices on the profitability of production of selected agricultural crops in Poland. The paper uses secondary data on the price level of fertilizers, fuels and selected agricultural products, as well as the structure of their production costs. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the potential impact of the increase in fuel and fertilizer prices on the profitability of the production of selected species was indicated. The results showed that the increase in the prices of the above-mentioned raw materials can significantly affect the economic efficiency of the production activity.

Asymmetric effects of oil prices and exchange rates on China’s industrial prices

Stock Watch

ABSTRACTAn identified vector‐autoregressive model is used to analyze the transmission of external commodity shocks to the Brazilian economy. The effects of the interaction between domestic macroeconomic (monetary and exchange rate) policies and external shocks to agricultural commodity (raw material and food) prices and crude oil price upon domestic (agriculture/industry) terms of trade are estimated.

1. Introduction Nordin, Simeh, Shariff and Baharim (2007), proved in their studies that there is a relationship between the price of crude oil and biodiesel. The results showed that the increase in oil prices during the period of the last few years encouraged some countries to begin to pay attention to the use of alternative fuels, among others from the plant (biodiesel). The increase of petroleum will increase biodiesel production. Ramli, Abas, R. and Ayatollah (2007) in their studies proved that the crude oil price is affected by biodiesel, the first derivative product of palm oil which produces palm oil (known as crude palm oil or abbreviated with CPO), utilizing biodiesel which comes from palm oil, the results showed that the biodiesel increase has affected the crude palm oil price. The development industries based on this CPO in addition directed to produce food products such as cooking oil, margarine, shortening, Cocoa Butter subtitute (CBS), and vegetable ghee, it is also directed to produce non-food products, such as industrial oleochemical primary (fatty acid, fatty alcohol, glycerin) and other oleochemical derivatives, namely surfactants, cosmetics, farmacy, and bioenergy. Oil palm plantations and palm oil industry as a means to improve the socio-economic conditions of rural communities through the implementation of operations Inti-Plasma programs (Zen et al., 2006). When the world oil price increases, many countries use CPO as raw material of bio-diesel fuel as a substitute (Karuppuswamy, Sundararaj and Elangovan, 2007; Pociovalisteanu et al., 2010; Thalassinos and Politis, 2012; Thalassinos et al., 2012). These conditions favor the use of biodiesel as a variety of targets alternatives to fossil energy applied to several countries in the world (Kennerly and Neely, 2003). In 2020, the European Union set a target of 10 percent biofuels of raw palm oil. Zen, Barlow and Gondowarsito (2006) studied that the crude oil prices have an influence on the palm oil as pointed out by Ahuja and Khamba (2008). It has been proved that there is an influence of biodiesel on the production of palm oil. The research result on the biodiesel and its impact on crude palm oil and its implications for palm oil, showed that the growing number of biodiesel has a positive and significant effect towards crude oil palm as well as the implications for the production of palm oil rises (Ashayeri, 2007). The increase of demand and the use of palm oil as a fuel is expected to cause disruption of the availability of CPO as raw materials for food, especially palm oil (Chand and Shirvani, 2000; Enkawa and Schvaneveldt, 2001). Novelty of this research is to add the existing variables into world oil price of the biodiesel and its impact on crude palm oil and its effect on oil palm. 2. Theory and Hypothesis As Santoso (2014) has pointed out bio-diesel is a natural renewable energy source that made from biomass or vegetable oil. As the bio-diesel has physical properties very similar to petroleum derived diesel fuel or ADO (Automobile Diesel Oil), bio-diesel has been used for motor engine since 1880's. In 1920's, bio-diesel production infrastructure has been nearly eliminated since diesel engine manufacturers altered their engine to utilize petroleum diesel that was much cheaper than Bio-diesel production. Recently, an increase on oil consumption, crude oil price, and ADO import have lead to consider bio-diesel utilization for transportation sector in Indonesia. An increase of the crude oil price that lead to a decreasing cost differential for bio-diesel production, bio-diesel utilization as alternative energy source in Indonesia is a real possibility. Some environmental impact concerns would also increase the bio-diesel utilization prospect. Oil palm is a highly profitable crop adapted to the humid tropics and the area devoted to this crop is likely to expand significantly in the future. It has many environmentally favourable attributes over its full life cycle. …

The motivation of this study is to investigate the relationship between the price of agricultural raw materials and the real exchange rate of the USA and the price of crude oil. For this purpose, annual data from 1990 to 2020 were used. In the study, the cointegration relationship and the elasticity coefficients of the variables were estimated with the help of ARDL bounds test. In addition, the causality relationship was determined with the help of the Granger test. According to the results obtained, it was concluded that there is a cointegration relationship in the models established for agricultural raw materials. In addition, the elasticity coefficient of oil price was found to be positive. According to the Granger causality analysis results, a one-way causality relationship from oil price to agricultural raw materials was determined. We present some policy implications based on our findings in this study.

Dynamic cost forecasting model based on extreme learning machine - A case study in steel plant

The dual quality of everyday consumer goods has been proven in the EU, although a geographical pattern dividing the EU into eastern and western parts has not been confirmed. This practice of some manufacturers is mainly mentioned from legislative and ethical points of view, yet its economic impact is also not negligible. It often happens that a consumer buys goods in his country in the same or very similar packaging as consumers abroad, however with a different composition (made with lower quality cheaper raw materials, containing a smaller proportion of basic raw materials or with a lower content of goods). The consumer can thus ask why he gets less or a lower quality product for his/her money than consumers abroad. In our research, we focused on Slovak consumers’ perception of the economic dimension of dual quality. According to the results of a survey of 987 respondents, 89% of the respondents have heard of dual quality and 84% of the respondents are concerned about this practice. Most of the respondents (44%) consider it to be an economic problem precisely because of the use of cheaper raw materials and other proportions of basic raw materials in goods. Based on the research results, we propose to incorporate a comparison of prices for goods (in terms of price per unit weight of goods and taking into account the quality and the price of raw materials used) into the uniform methodology of testing goods for dual quality adopted by the European Commission. Furthermore, we propose to include information on dual quality of goods and the use of different raw materials (which are locally available or are allowed in the country and facilitate the processing procedure) on the packaging, which should be taken into account in pricing.

Petroleum and natural gas, which are among the most used energy sources in the world, have a significant impact on financial markets and macroeconomic indicators as they are used as raw materials in many fields. For this reason, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India, as energy importers and developing countries, may be affected positively or negatively by changes in energy prices. The main purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between Brent oil, crude oil (WTI), and natural gas (NG) prices and Moscow Stock Exchange Index (RTSI), Borsa Istanbul Index (XU100), Bovespa Brazilian Stock Exchange Index (BVSP), and Indian National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 Index (NSEI). In the study, weekly data between 16.02.2020 and 26.12.2021 were examined. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to examine the correlation between the variables included in the analysis, and the direction of the correlation between the variables was determined by the Granger causality test. According to the results of the VAR model, Brent oil and crude oil prices have significant effects on the indices included in the analysis; however, natural gas price does not have a significant effect on indices, Brent oil, and crude oil prices. On the other hand, the results of the Granger causality test confirm the findings of the VAR analysis. Granger causality test results reveal that in Granger's sense, only BVSP and NSEI are the cause of Brent oil price, RTSI, BVSP, NSEI, and XU100 are the cause of WTI, and WTI is the cause of NSEI.

A study of varying prices of basic civil engineering construction materials was undertaken. The basic materials considered were two varieties of cement, three types of sand, and different sizes of two types of timber. Prices of these construction materials were collected from local Contractors in Oshogbo region over a period of twenty seven months. The period considered was from January 2010 to March 2012. Variation pattern in the prices was studied on monthly basis. Results indicate that prices of all the basic construction materials follow an annual cyclic pattern. Prices of the two brands of Cement were the same except at months 12, 23 and 24. The prices are stable from April to August of each year (months 4-8, and 16-20). During these periods the price of this material increased by 13.3% from ?1,500.00 in 2010 to ?1,700.00 in 2011. There were two rises per annum in the prices of sand. The first rise occurred in March and the second in the following November for sharp and fine sands. Timber prices are relatively stable within 5% variability during the months of November – March and December – March respectively for hardwood and whitewood except types H4 and W1. H4 and W1 prices were the same and they followed the same trend. The trends presented by types H4 and H5, which are same size but different species, are similar, indicating that hardwood specie is not a factor in the price variation of timbers. It can generally be concluded that the prices of the basic construction materials will stabilize during the months of April to August of every year. Although construction activities are light every January, January prices keep increasing from year to year.

In order to model the process of developing new recipes for muffins from organic raw materials, a mathematical model of the problem has been built. The solution involved using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet processor and a computer algebra system from the class of automated design systems Mathcad. The object of research is the cupcake "Grechanyk", and the control sample is the cupcake "Stolichny". The following components are proposed to be introduced into the cupcake: buckwheat flour, agave syrup, cane sugar, sesame oil, butter, dried raisins. All raw materials are organic. With the help of modeling the content of food nutrients – amino acids, fatty acids, carbohydrates, and the price of raw materials, a rational formulation of the product has been developed. In the developed cupcake, a comprehensive quality indicator is investigated by qualimetric evaluation. Group quality indicators included organoleptic, physical-chemical, and microbiological indicators. They also include the content of toxic elements, nutritional and energy value. The weighting coefficients of group quality indicators are: 0.15 for organoleptic, physical-chemical, microbiological indicators. The coefficient of weight of the energy value is 0.10; food – 0.20, toxicological elements – 0.25. The results of the study showed that the integrated quality indicator is 0.82. These correspond to an excellent level of quality. The values of group quality indicators are as follows: organoleptic indicators – 0.14; physical and chemical indicators – 0.11. The content of toxicological elements is 0.22. Microbiological indicators – 0.14. The nutritional value is 0.13. Energy value – 0.09. The results indicate the relevance of the use of the mathematical apparatus of design. The research results can be used by food industry enterprises to expand the range of products and to optimize the production process in the presence of the specified amount of raw materials.

Pelabuhan perikanan samudera Belawan merupakan lokasi pusat pengembangan industri pengolahan ikan dan pusat penangkapan ikan di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. PPS Belawan terdapat sekitar 25 industri pengolahan ikan yang ada disana. Kebutuhan bahan baku industri pengolahan ikan terus meningkat per tahunnya, tetapi kebutuhan tersebut tidak terpenuhi sepenuhnya oleh bahan baku yang ada. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengestimasi kebutuhan bahan baku untuk industri pengolahan ikan, mengidentifikasi asal ikan dan mengestimasi persediaan ikan di PPS Belawan, dan merumuskan strategi tentang pemenuhan bahan baku industri pengolahan ikan. Metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah metode observasi dan wawancara. Kemudian, analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis SWOT. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebutuhan bahan baku untuk industri pengolahan ikan adalah 85.714 ton/tahun. Sementara itu, asal ikan di pelabuhan perikanan samudera Belawan berasal dari ikan yang di daratkan pelabuhan perikanan samudera belawan dan dari luar pelabuhan perikanan samudera belawan (Aceh, Bengkulu, Padang, Batubara, dan Tanjung Balai). Kemudian, kapasitas operasional industri pengolahan ikan sebesar 54.429 ton. Tingkat pemenuhan kebutuhan industri pengolahan ikan adalah 63%. Berdasarkan analisis SWOT, strategi dalam pemenuhan bahan baku tersebut adalah melakukan pengembangan fasilitas (cold storage dan aksesibilitas tansportasi) serta pemanfaatan SDM untuk memenuhi kebutuhan indutri pengolahan, melakukan kerjasama dengan pihak luar dalam dalam menunjang ketersediaan dan harga bahan baku yang terus stabil, mendorong armada melakukan penangkapan ikan yang menjadi kebutuhan industri pengolahan ikan, dan melakukan penegakan hukum terhadap yang menghambat akses bahan baku masuk ke industri.

To date, there is a tendency to increase the pace of production in the field of ferrous metallurgy. The constant demand for steel products is accompanied by an increase in prices for raw materials, including carbon reducing agents. In the conditions of the domestic market of Kazakhstan, of great interest is the study and the possibility of using low-baking and non-baking coal as a raw material for the production of special coke used as a reducing agent in metallurgy, the relevance and expediency of which is also due to the resource conservation and energy efficiency program in the use of raw materials put forward by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In this article, as a result of the search for high-quality, alternative types of reducing agents used in the production of ferroalloys, experimental data of thermal oxidation treatment (coking) of long-flame, non-baking coals of the Shubarkol deposit (Kazakhstan) are presented. In laboratory conditions, during the experiments, the tested grade D coals with a fraction of 70-80 mm were subjected to temperature exposure at temperatures of 800, 850, 900, 950 °C with various preset heating speeds to determine the quality characteristics that meet the requirements for reducing agents for the metallurgical industry, in particular for the production of ferroalloys, in electro thermal, steelmaking, for agglomeration of iron and non-ferrous ores, etc. A technical analysis of long–flame coal was carried out, the volatile and moisture content of which are Vdaf – 44.5%, W – 14.8%, respectively. Also, the obtained special coke was evaluated by the content of volatile components as a result of heat treatment of coals from the Shubarkol deposit: the volatile content averaged 1.73-3.15%, the moisture was 0.73-1.65%.Based on the results of the studies, the possibility of obtaining a special coke from these types of coals with appropriate characteristics was shown.

The subject of this research is the processes of price formation for raw materials depending on the demand for end consumer products. The article reviews a mathematical model that is based on the principle of maximum utility. The proposed model is founded on the stage-by-stage determination of the production output and consumption of end products, as well as corresponding prices depending on the prices of used raw materials and semi-finished products. The prices for intermediate products and raw materials are formed depending on the need for end products output with their optimization by demand. The article provides the basic mathematical ration with regards to using principle of maximum utility applicable to the demand-supply model and its implementation in multi-stage production. The acquired results indicate weak dependence of production output and prices for end products on the cost of raw material in terms of advanced refining. With limited production capacity of raw materials, the dynamics of prices is well predicted. The results of modeling, compared to the available statistical data, indicate the adequacy of the proposed model to the unfolding economic processes. It is determined that the accuracy of price prediction for raw products with a significant volume of its subsequent processing is limited.