Empirical Analysis for Crime Prediction and Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques

Abstract: This research is driven by the challenges faced by Universitas Lancang Kuning (UNILAK) in attracting applicants amidst intense competition, especially after the government's policy opened independent pathways to State Universities (PTN) from 2022-2023, which impacted private university applicant numbers. To address this and support strategic planning, this study aims to predict the trend of prospective students applying to all study programs at UNILAK for the period 2025-2027. Two time series models were employed: ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). Applicant data from 2019 to 2024 was used to build the model. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirmed the data's stationarity with a p-value of 0.0. ACF and PACF analyses determined the ARIMA parameters as p=1, d=1, q=1. The LSTM model was trained to capture more complex data patterns. ARIMA predictions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3298.66, 3362.33, and 3371.30, respectively. LSTM predictions for the same years are 3335.64, 3476.52, and 3518.42. Evaluation using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) showed ARIMA (RMSE=588.72) to be more accurate than LSTM (RMSE=653.96). Nevertheless, LSTM provided a more optimistic prediction. This study concludes that ARIMA is better suited for short-term planning, while LSTM can be used for more ambitious long-term strategies. Keywords: arima; LSTM; applicants; prediction; university Abstrak: Penelitian ini didorong oleh tantangan Universitas Lancang Kuning (UNILAK) dalam menarik pendaftar di tengah persaingan ketat, khususnya setelah kebijakan pemerintah membuka jalur mandiri ke Perguruan Tinggi Negeri (PTN) sejak 2022-2023, yang menyebabkan penurunan jumlah pendaftar di universitas swasta. Untuk mendukung perencanaan strategis, studi ini bertujuan memprediksi tren jumlah calon mahasiswa yang mendaftar ke seluruh program studi di UNILAK untuk periode 2025-2027.Dua model deret waktu digunakan: ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) dan LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). Data jumlah pendaftar dari 2019 hingga 2024 digunakan untuk membangun model. Uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) menunjukkan data stasioner dengan p-value 0,0. Analisis ACF dan PACF menentukan parameter ARIMA sebagai p=1, d=1, q=1. Model LSTM dilatih untuk menangkap pola data yang lebih kompleks.Prediksi ARIMA untuk 2025, 2026, dan 2027 adalah 3298.66, 3362.33, dan 3371.30. Prediksi LSTM untuk tahun yang sama adalah 3335.64, 3476.52, dan 3518.42. Evaluasi menggunakan Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) menunjukkan ARIMA (RMSE=588.72) lebih akurat daripada LSTM (RMSE=653.96). Meskipun demikian, LSTM memberikan prediksi yang lebih optimis. Studi ini menyimpulkan ARIMA lebih cocok untuk perencanaan jangka pendek, sementara LSTM dapat digunakan untuk strategi jangka panjang yang ambisius. Kata kunci: arima; LSTM; pendaftar; prediksi; universitas

Accurate and efficient prediction of oilfield productivity is very important for the formulation of development and adjustment plans. Machine learning (ML) productivity prediction model can quickly obtain the productivity of oilfield development. In this paper, an oilfield development productivity prediction model based on five ML algorithms including multivariable linear regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), back propagation (BP) neural network and long short term memory (LSTM) neural network is established. Through the evaluation of model performance indicators (include the root mean square error (RMSE), the coefficient of determination (R2), the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)), the best performance prediction model is selected. The research results show that the prediction results of LR model are greatly affected by the data of high productivity oil wells, XGBoost model are easily affected by fitting, and BP neural network model is far less effective than other models. Through comprehensive comparison of prediction results, LightGBM model has better stability and generalization performance. The difference between the prediction results of each model is mainly caused by the characteristics of the algorithm and the size of the data sets. At the same time, LSTM can predict the future oil well production based on the oil well time series observation data. The research results of this paper have guiding significance for the selection of productivity prediction model for oilfield development based on data-driven.

BackgroundMore than 79.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1.7 million deaths were caused by SARS-CoV-2; the disease was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. Control of the COVID-19 epidemic has become a crucial issue around the globe, but there are limited studies that investigate the global trend of the COVID-19 pandemic together with each country’s policy measures.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop an online artificial intelligence (AI) system to analyze the dynamic trend of the COVID-19 pandemic, facilitate forecasting and predictive modeling, and produce a heat map visualization of policy measures in 171 countries.MethodsThe COVID-19 Pandemic AI System (CPAIS) integrated two data sets: the data set from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from the Blavatnik School of Government, which is maintained by the University of Oxford, and the data set from the COVID-19 Data Repository, which was established by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This study utilized four statistical and deep learning techniques for forecasting: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), feedforward neural network (FNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM). With regard to 1-year records (ie, whole time series data), records from the last 14 days served as the validation set to evaluate the performance of the forecast, whereas earlier records served as the training set.ResultsA total of 171 countries that featured in both databases were included in the online system. The CPAIS was developed to explore variations, trends, and forecasts related to the COVID-19 pandemic across several counties. For instance, the number of confirmed monthly cases in the United States reached a local peak in July 2020 and another peak of 6,368,591 in December 2020. A dynamic heat map with policy measures depicts changes in COVID-19 measures for each country. A total of 19 measures were embedded within the three sections presented on the website, and only 4 of the 19 measures were continuous measures related to financial support or investment. Deep learning models were used to enable COVID-19 forecasting; the performances of ARIMA, FNN, and the MLP neural network were not stable because their forecast accuracy was only better than LSTM for a few countries. LSTM demonstrated the best forecast accuracy for Canada, as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 2272.551, 1501.248, and 0.2723075, respectively. ARIMA (RMSE=317.53169; MAPE=0.4641688) and FNN (RMSE=181.29894; MAPE=0.2708482) demonstrated better performance for South Korea.ConclusionsThe CPAIS collects and summarizes information about the COVID-19 pandemic and offers data visualization and deep learning–based prediction. It might be a useful reference for predicting a serious outbreak or epidemic. Moreover, the system undergoes daily updates and includes the latest information on vaccination, which may change the dynamics of the pandemic.

The intermittent and stochastic nature of solar energy generation systems, climate change, and the inefficiency of modern power systems due to zero inertia have created many challenges for on-grid operators. Solar forecasting systems based on machine learning algorithms are an emerging and effective solution that uses Big Data related to weather phenomena. However, the predictive ability of these algorithms is hampered by the sporadic nature of solar energy generation. In this article, a robust hybrid machine learning system that utilizes multiple linear regression (MLR) and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) was tested on solar power plant sites of varying capacities in Germany (100–8500 kW). The volume of Big Data features can be reduced by focusing on the features that significantly improve the reliability of the mid-term forecasting system. In this way, drastic fluctuations in the prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation can be avoided. The results of our approach are evaluated regarding real-world data using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with feature engineering, and principal component analysis (PCA), in order to forecast PV energy, rank, and track the importance of feature engineering for different PV capacities. Furthermore, we found that the need for selectivity and reduction of performance error was supported by ridge regression. In addition, the proposed novel XGBoost forecast system decreased the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 30% and 18%, respectively, compared to the Autoencoder and long short-term memory (LSTM) for same datasets. Furthermore, the CoD determination coefficient ( <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$R^{2}$</tex-math></inline-formula> ) increased by 85% compared to the statistical model's autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA).

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is one of the most widespread and deadly diseases in several parts of Indonesia. An accurate forecast-based model is required to reduce the incidence rate of this disease. Time-series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used in epidemiology as statistical tools to study and forecast DHF and other infectious diseases. The present study attempted to forecast the monthly confirmed DHF cases via a time-series approach. The ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models were compared to select the most accurate forecasting method for the deadly disease. The data were obtained from the Surabaya Health Office covering January 2014 to December 2016. The data were partitioned into the training and testing sets. The best forecasting model was selected based on the lowest values of accuracy metrics such as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The findings demonstrated that the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0) model was able to forecast the DHF outbreaks in Surabaya City compared to the ARIMA (2,1,1) and LSTM models. We further forecasted the DHF cases for 12 month horizons starting from January 2017 to December 2017 using the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0), ARIMA (2,1,1), and LSTM models. The results revealed that the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0) model outperformed the ARIMA (2,1,1) and LSTM models based on the goodness-of-fit measure. The results showed significant seasonal outbreaks of DHF, particularly from March to September. The highest cases observed in May suggested a significant seasonal correlation between DHF and air temperature. This research is the first attempt to analyze the time-series model for DHF cases in Surabaya City and forecast future outbreaks. The findings could help policymakers and public health specialists develop efficient public health strategies to detect and control the disease, especially in the early phases of outbreaks.

Introduction: Air quality forecasting, particularly predicting Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations, has gained significant attention due to itscritical implications for public health and environmental management.Accurately predicting PM2.5 , a harmful air pollutant associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, is vital for effective air quality management in densely populated urban areas. Materials and methods: This study uses various meteorological and environmental data combinations in Tehran, Iran, this study investigates the efficacy of three predictive modeling techniques Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in forecasting daily and monthly PM2.5levels. The models were evaluated based on performance metrics such as RootMean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R² scores. Results: Results indicate that XGBoost excelled in daily predictions when using solely meteorological data, achieving an R² score of 0.998674, while ARIMA demonstrated strong predictive capacity but struggled with added complexity. LSTM maintained reasonable performance amidst increased data input but faced challenges in both daily and monthly forecasts. Monthly predictions from all models proved less reliable, particularly with ARIMA yielding negative R² values, indicating suboptimal performance compared to simplistic models. Conclusion: The findings highlight the importance of model selection and feature engineering in accurately predicting PM2.5 levels. The study suggests a shift towards hybrid modeling approaches and incorporating diverse environmental data to enhance forecasting accuracy in air quality management, particularly for long-term predictions.

Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources in Indonesia, particularly in Bali, which has relatively high solar irradiance throughout the year. However, daily variability in solar radiation caused by weather conditions and atmospheric factors leads to fluctuations in solar energy production, making accurate forecasting essential for effective energy planning. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and hybrid ARIMA–LSTM models in forecasting daily solar energy at the Jembrana Climatological Station, Bali. The dataset consists of 10-minute solar radiation observations obtained from an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) for the period January 2023 to September 2025, which were aggregated into daily solar energy values expressed in kWh/m². Data preprocessing included missing value handling, outlier correction, normalization, and an 80:20 split between training and testing datasets. Model performance was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the hybrid ARIMA–LSTM model achieved the best performance, with an RMSE of 0.960 kWh/m², MAE of 0.771 kWh/m², and MAPE of 22.245%, outperforming both the ARIMA and LSTM models. These findings indicate that the hybrid approach is more effective in capturing both linear and nonlinear characteristics of daily solar energy time series.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

ObjectivesHuman brucellosis is a public health problem endangering health and property in China. Predicting the trend and the seasonality of human brucellosis is of great significance for its prevention. In...

A digital currency known as a cryptocurrency uses blockchain technology to record transactions electronically, guaranteeing security and transparency. Cryptocurrencies, in contrast to conventional hard currency, are virtual or soft currencies; that do not exist in the actual world like coins or banknotes. Since all transactions occur digitally, cryptocurrencies are decentralized and frequently stand-alone from conventional financial institutions. Peer-to-peer transfers, increased anonymity, and often quicker transaction processing without middlemen are made possible by this. In this study, two machine learning models; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and two deep learning models; long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM) were compared. By employing past Bitcoin data from 2012 to 2020, we evaluated the models' mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). Compared to other models, the Bi-LSTM model yields minimal RMSE scores of 67.18 and MAE scores of 24.73. This aids in capturing all temporal correlations, which are important for forecasting the price of Bitcoin.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages are highly important for individuals to continue staying alive and living healthy lives. The increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced across the world over years has continued to make food and non-alcoholic beverages not to be accessible and affordable to individuals and families having a low income. The aim of this particular research study was to identify how Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages could be modelled using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for forecasting future values for the next two years. The data used for the study was that of Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages for the period starting from February 2009 to April 2024 obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database. The best specification for the ARIMA model was identified using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and assessing whether residuals of the model were independent and normally distributed with a variance that is constant an whether the model has most of its coefficients being significant statistically. ARIMA (3, 1, 0) (1, 0, 0) model was identified as the best ARIMA model for modeling Kenya’s CPI of food and non-beverages for forecasting future values among the ARIMA models considered. Using this particular model, Kenya’s CPI of food and non-alcoholic beverages was forecasted to increase only slightly with time to reach a value of about 165.70 by March 2026.

An effective compression algorithm for real-time transmission data using predictive coding with mixed models of LSTM and XGBoost

BackgroundAccurate incidence prediction of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) is critical for early prevention and better government strategic planning. In this paper, four different forecasting models were presented to predict the incidence of AIDS, gonorrhea, and syphilis.MethodsThe annual percentage changes in the incidence of AIDS, gonorrhea, and syphilis were estimated by using joinpoint regression. The performance of four methods, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Elman neural network (ERNN) model, ARIMA-ERNN hybrid model and long short-term memory (LSTM) model, were assessed and compared. For 1-year prediction, the collected data from 2011 to 2020 were used for modeling to predict the incidence in 2021. For 5-year prediction, the collected data from 2011 to 2016 were used for modeling to predict the incidence from 2017 to 2021. The performance was evaluated based on four indices: mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).ResultsThe morbidities of AIDS and syphilis are on the rise, and the morbidity of gonorrhea has declined in recent years. The optimal ARIMA models were determined: ARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)12, ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,2)12, and ARIMA(3,1,2)(1,1,2)12 for AIDS, gonorrhea, and syphilis 1-year prediction, respectively; ARIMA (2,1,2)(0,1,1)12, ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,2)12, and ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 for AIDS, gonorrhea and syphilis 5-year prediction, respectively. For 1-year prediction, the MAPEs of ARIMA, ERNN, ARIMA-ERNN, and LSTM for AIDS are 23.26, 20.24, 18.34, and 18.63, respectively; For gonorrhea, the MAPEs are 19.44, 18.03, 17.77, and 5.09, respectively; For syphilis, the MAPEs are 9.80, 9.55, 8.67, and 5.79, respectively. For 5-year prediction, the MAPEs of ARIMA, ERNN, ARIMA-ERNN, and LSTM for AIDS are 12.86, 23.54, 14.74, and 25.43, respectively; For gonorrhea, the MAPEs are 17.07, 17.95, 16.46, and 15.13, respectively; For syphilis, the MAPEs are 21.88, 24.00, 20.18 and 11.20, respectively. In general, the performance ranking of the four models from high to low is LSTM, ARIMA-ERNN, ERNN, and ARIMA.ConclusionThe time series predictive models show their powerful performance in forecasting STDs incidence and can be applied by relevant authorities in the prevention and control of STDs.

The objective of this study is to systematically compare the predictive performance of Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model for next-day Bitcoin (BTC–USD) closing-price forecasting. The research method employs a quantitative time-series modeling approach using a decade-long daily Bitcoin price dataset. A strictly chronological train–test split and a one-step-ahead forecasting scheme are applied to prevent lookahead bias and ensure experimental validity. Model performance is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination R2 on the original price scale. The results demonstrate that the Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model consistently outperforms the standalone LSTM and XGBoost models across all evaluation metrics, indicating superior predictive accuracy and robustness under high market volatility. The contribution of this study lies in providing a controlled, uniform, and methodologically rigorous head-to-head comparison of deep learning, machine learning, and hybrid architectures for Bitcoin price forecasting, thereby enriching the empirical literature and offering a reliable foundation for the development of adaptive decision-support systemsin volatile cryptocurrency investment environments.

Fuel is an important part of vehicles and machinery where sales demand is very high and has various fluctuations. The uncertainty in these fuel sales patterns poses serious problems in inventory management and fuel distribution planning in Indonesia, which can result in excess stock or fuel scarcity in various regions. Additionally, changing trends in vehicle usage and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have made accurate sales predictions increasingly difficult. Therefore, this research aims to understand the current and future sales patterns and trends of fuel sales in Indonesia. Careful analysis of prices and other factors such as data processing and other variables is required. This study uses time series analysis methods and compares four models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), FB Prophet, Simple Moving Average (SMA), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). By comparing the results using statistics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) over various prediction time frames, we assessed the patterns of each model. The results of the analysis show that the LSTM model outperformed all other methods with the lowest MAPE for the prediction of gasoline in the next 31 days, which is 17.11%, while the FB Prophet outperformed all other methods with the lowest MAPE for the prediction of diesel in the next 31 days, which is 18.32%. Although the LSTM model generally outperformed all other algorithms, the FB Prophet model can be used to predict future trends, such as increased use of diesel and decreased use of gasoline which are expected to last within one year. This analysis also provides insights for choosing the right model for a time series problem, including the characteristics of the data to be predicted and analyzed, as well as the assumptions of stationarity and normality of the data. The results of this study indicate that machine learning algorithms can improve the accuracy of time series predictions significantly compared to traditional statistical methods.