English

This study aims at contributing to the vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes (CC) analysis of bordering communities of Togodo Reserve, in order to enhance their resilience. Specifically, the present study attempted to (i) identify the climatic hazards of the WRT; (ii) determine the impacts of climate variability and change on their livelihoods; (iii) assess the socio-economic vulnerability of these communities to food insecurity in relation to CC; and (iv) identify indigenous adaptation strategies to control the effects of CC. The methodological approach used is based on a factual research and a field investigation. The investigation is conducted in two villages around the reserve, namely Deve and Gbohoule. The results showed that climate variability and change were appreciated in different indicators by the local communities living around the WRT: Droughts, flooding, high winds and temperature increase with severe consequences on the communities (famine, destruction of tangible and intangible properties, loss of human life, populations’ migration). The communities are aware that humans are responsible for these events that have become recurrent from 2007 and occur almost every year. According to them, the causes of climate changes are deforestation (due to overexploitation of timber, fuelwood and shifting agriculture), bush fires, rapid increase in population, anger of gods due to irregularities of sacrifices and violations of customs. The communities are vulnerable to main climatic hazards and suffered from food insecurity. The factorial correspondence analysis (FCA)) carried out shows that the perception of the degree of exposure of households to risks depends on their standard of livelihood. Facing these climate events, the populations develop many adaptive strategies of which most are consistent with the national orientations and strategies. These adaptive strategies must be reinforced and supported in order to reduce the vulnerability of these populations to climate changes. Key words: Climate variability and change, communities, livelihood, vulnerability and adaptation, Wildlife Reserve of Togodo.

Climate change and variability have been identified globally as a major challenge to food security especially in Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs). Agriculture and smallholder farmers have also been identified as the most vulnerable, mainly due to the former being rain-fed and the latter having inadequate adaptive capacity to the dynamics of climate change and variability. This study, therefore, sought to determine the social-economic factors that influence the adoption of adaptation strategies for climate change and variability, among smallholder farmers in Igambang’ombe Sub-County, Tharaka Nithi County. A descriptive research design was applied. Systematic random sampling was used to select the respondents and a semi-structured questionnaire with open and closed-ended questions was used for data collection. Observations and interviews were carried out, while systematic random sampling was used to select the respondents. Correlation analysis was used to assess which socio-economic factors influenced the adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change and variability. Some of the adaptation strategies considered included; accessed weather information Ox-ploughing and herbicide use for preparation, terracing and intercropping, crop and variety diversification The study showed that age (42%), farmer’s farming experience (40%), and level of education of the household head (24%), were the key socio-economic factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change and variability. Adaptation of climate change and variability adaptation strategies was also associated to access and frequency of extension services. Access to farm subsidy and credit was also important. Farmers and agriculture stakeholders needed to upscale training, guided by specific socio-economic farmer characteristics.

In-depth knowledge of smallholder farmers’ perception of changing climate variables such as recurrent and protracted droughts, late onset of rainfall, early cessation of rainfall and their coping adaptation strategies are very significant in designing climate resilient agriculture among smallholder food crop farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate variability vis-á-vis meteorological and satellite remote sensing data and their implications for climate smart agriculture technologies. Integration of meteorological, satellite remote sensing and farm-level data were used. Multistage sampling procedure was used to select four towns, eight communities and 398 smallholder food crop farmers. Spearmans’ rank correlation coefficient and Standardized Precipitation Index were used to assess the distribution of climate variables. In addition, three vegetation drought characteristic indices, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Water Supply Vegetation Index (WSVI) were used to examine drought conditions within the basin. The results indicated that smallholder farmers in the Offin river basin perceived recurrent and prolonged droughts, rising temperatures, late onset of rainfall, early cessation of rainfall, increasing dry spells, reduction in the length of rainfall season and shorten cropping season as a main indicators of climate variability. The findings further revealed that farmers’ perceptions on climate variability strongly agrees with meteorological and satellite remote sensing data which not only demonstrated rising temperature and frequent and prolonged droughts but also late onset and early cessation of rainfall and reduction in growing season rainfall. Smallholder food crop farmers in the Offin river basin have a high awareness of variation in climate condition and have taken coping strategies to reduce the effects of climate change and climate variability. Smallholder food crop farmers in the basin have also adopted climate smart agriculture technologies such as crop management techniques, integrated soil and nutrient management practices, tillage and residue management, small scale irrigation systems, inland valleys cropping and renewable energy systems to increase agricultural productivity and build resilience to climate variability. The policy implication is that, smallholder food crop farmers’ knowledge on climate variability should be considered as a practical input in designing and planning climate variability coping adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Despite extensive research on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe, their effectiveness from the perspective of smallholder farmers, particularly in the Gwayi catchment remains insufficiently understood. This study evaluated adaptation strategies in response to land use change and climate variability using a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected through a survey of 483 smallholder farmers, 10 focus group discussions (8–12 participants), and interviews with 25 key informants. Results show that despite farmers' awareness of improved practices, adaptation remains constrained by limited access to water, quality seeds, and technology (64%), financial constraints (46%), and knowledge gaps (19%). The most common adaptation strategies include soil water conservation (85%), drought-resistant crops (80%), early planting (55%), and diversification (49%), with soil water conservation and drought-tolerant crops being the most widely practiced and perceived as most effective. Regression analysis indicates that livestock ownership, participation in community climate-resilient programs, and recent drought experiences significantly (p < 0.05) influence both the choice and number of adaptation strategies adopted. These findings highlight the need for context-specific interventions to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes on food security. Strengthening resilience among smallholder farmers requires improved resource access, livestock support, community-based resilience programs, capacity building, financial aid, and enhanced drought preparedness. Implementing these measures will bolster adaptive capacity and promote sustainable agricultural practices in the face of climate uncertainty.

Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated climate change is expected to aggravate some of the existing challenges and impose new risks beyond the range of current experiences. This study aimed at understanding current climate variability and future climate change and associated impacts, and providing insights on current climate risk management strategies and future adaptation options for adapting agriculture, in particular maize production.The study was conducted in the Central Rift Valley, which represents major cereal-based farming systems of the semi-arid environments of Ethiopia. A second case study area, Kobo Valley was also used for additional analysis in part of the study. Empirical statistical analyses, field survey methods, and a systems analytical approach, using field experimental data in combination with crop-climate simulation modelling were used to achieve the objectives of the study.Crop growth simulation modelling was carried out using two well-accepted crop models, which is an innovative feature of the methodology used in this thesis. The analysis revealed that rainfall exhibited high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 15-40%) during the period 1977-2007 in the CRV. The mean annual temperature significantly increased with 0.12 to 0.54 oC per decade during 1977-2007. Projections for future climate suggested that annual rainfall will change by -40 to +10% and the annual temperature is expected to increase in the range of 1.4 to 4.1 oC by 2080s. Simulated water-limited yields are characterized by high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 36%) and about 60% of this variability is explained by the variation in growing season rainfall. Actual yields of maize in the CRV are only 28-30% of the simulated water-limited yield. Analysis of climate change scenarios showed that maize yield will decrease on average by 20% in the 2050s relative to a baseline climate due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in growing season rainfall. The negative impact of climate change is very likely, however, the extent of the negative impact has some uncertainties ranging from -2 to -29% depending on crop model and climate change scenario. From the selection of models used, it was concluded that General Circulation Models to assess future climate are the most important source of uncertainty in this study. In response to perceived impacts, farm households are implementing various coping and adaptation strategies. The most important current adaptive strategies include crop selection, adjusting planting time, in situ moisture conservation and income diversification. Lack of affordable technologies, high costs for agricultural inputs, lack of reliable information on weather forecasts, and insecure land tenure systems were identified as limiting factors of farmers’ adaptive capacity. The crop model-based evaluation of future adaptation options indicates that increasing nitrogen fertilization, use of irrigation and changes in planting dates can compensate for some of the negative impacts of climate change on maize production. Developing more heat tolerant and high yielding new cultivars is critical to sustain crop production under future climate change. It was clear from the study that enabling strategies targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become an integral part of government policies to assist farmers in adapting to the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change.

Priority focus areas for a sub-national response to climate change and health: A South African provincial case study

Climate change and the related increasing variability are real phenomena in sub-Saharan Africa. They are exacerbating climatic risks associated with small-scale agriculture in tropical regions. This study seeks to assess smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and also their adaptive strategies at the microscale in Mhakwe Communal Area in Zimbabwe. A mixed method research design was employed to carry out the study. The design was a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data collection methods. A sample of 43 smallholder farmers was purposively selected because the population of smallholder farmers was unknown. The study noted that government agencies and non-governmental organisations were providing information about climate change and variability to smallholder farmers. Farmers practiced a number of adaptation strategies such as timing in planting, zero tillage, mulching, agroforestry and gardening. The study recommended that external agencies should focus on strengthening existing adaptive strategies. There is also need to scale-up programmes on capacity building with regards to dissemination of analysed weather and climate data. Key Words : Climate change; Adaptation; Agriculture; Smallholder farmers, Vulnerability

Background/Aim : Climate Change has an impact on critical components of “One Health” such as human health, animal health, plant health and environmental health. Climate and environmental change also affects socio-economic determinants of “One Health” such as development, demographics, agriculture, animal production, global trade, food prices, poverty etc. The study aims to provide an analysis of the impacts of climate change on “One Health” and identify adaptation and mitigation strategies to address these impacts. Methods: The analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on “One Health” integrates the WHO Health Impact Assessment methodology with the FAO Biosecurity framework which includes human health (food safety), animal health, plant health and environmental health. The study provides a cross-sectoral analysis of the adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies to address climate change and variability challenges to “One Health” focusing in a case study in California’s green economy. Results: There are multiple pathways through which climate change may impact “One Health” including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, changes in complex contaminants’ transport pathways, and socio-economic and demographic factors among others. To address the challenges of climate change and variability to One Health is complex and requires trade-offs in a green economy framework. The case study in California addressing agriculture and environment sectors in show that decisions made in the agricultural sector impact environment, health and social factors and that health impact assessments are critical for policy change. Conclusion: To address the impacts of climate and environmental change One Health in a green economy it is necessary to develop inter-sectoral adaptation and mitigation strategies that are integrated in resilient climate development plans. Approaches such as health promoting agriculture policies and green chemistry are critical to mainstream health across sectors in California’s green economy. In this context health impact assessments facilitate decision-making and policy changes in a green economy since address socio-economic and development aspects.

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Water management, climate change, and climate variability—along with their numerous interlinkages and the extent of related hydrologic, economic, social, environmental, and political impacts over time and space—have become issues of increasing global concern. Despite their importance for freshwater systems and the fundamental services they provide, numerous factors and uncertainties prevent us from forecasting their likely future multidimensional and multisectoral impacts with any accuracy. These factors include, but are not necessarily limited to, a lack of scientific understanding of their complexity and interrelationships, as well as an absence of reliable data that would otherwise allow us to understand them more reliably. Therefore, policy alternatives, management and development decisions, and investment choices on any adaptation strategy are challenging tasks under the best of circumstances. Given the uncertainties related to climate change and variability, nonclimatic factors have thus become more relevant. Governance—or decision-making by multiple actors with dissimilar interests grouped under formal and informal institutions—is one of the most important. This chapter discusses several case studies that analyze the roles that infrastructure and governance play in the context of adaptation in increasing resilience to climate variability and change in different regions, basins, and projects. Water infrastructure is fundamental to build resilience and adapt to climate variability and change. However, to be effective, it needs to be part of a governance framework that considers multisector needs and multilevel actors in the longer term.

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

The significance of urban agriculture is increasingly being recognised across the globe. Urban agriculture’s contribution to food security and poverty reduction, especially for the urban poor, has received increasing attention in urban policy discourses (Satterthwaite et al. in Adapting to climate change in Urban areas; the possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income countries. IIED, London, 2007; Mutonodzo in Agriculture in urban planning: generating livelihoods and food security. Earthscan, London, 2009; Mkwambisi in Agriculture in urban planning: generating livelihoods and food security. Earthscan, London, Mkwambisi 2009). The impacts of climate change, climate variability and urban growth reduce the benefits derived from agro ecosystem services in peri-urban areas in most developing countries. Peri-urban areas play a significant role in providing ~80% of the vegetables consumed in urban areas of Malawi. However, the vegetable production is dependent on stream water or residual moisture from wetlands, which are being affected by climate change. This study investigated the viability of multi-stakeholder experimentation with sustainable technologies for improving vegetable production in a peri-urban setting experiencing water shortages due to climate change and variability in the Mulanje district in Southern Malawi. Using a participatory action research (PAR) approach, farmers, researchers, extensionists and village leaders worked together to source, test and evaluate various different horticultural production practices. Over a two-year period, they experimented with technologies such as bag (vertical) gardening, differential use of manure and fertiliser, new crops and crop varieties, seed bed preparation techniques and judicial use of pesticides. Those practices identified as successful in 2011 were replicated in 2012 for further evaluation. In general, the study found considerable improvements in vegetable production resulting from the improved agronomic practices. Further, many farmers found bag gardening more convenient due to reduced irrigation requirements, lower labor demands, all year round seasonal production, ease of access and crop security. Improved quality of produce, earlier harvest and increased total number of harvests of leafy vegetables due to manure incorporation, use of improved varieties and high yields in general were among other advantages that were realised. In addition, the technologies promoted minimal use of chemicals, which resulted in reduced seepage of inputs, thereby maintaining agro-ecosystem health. Most communities in the area have adopted the technologies as strategies for climate change adaptation. Scaling up these practices can therefore improve vegetable supply challenges arising from urbanisation, climate change and variability while reducing impacts on agro-ecosystem services.

The impact of climate change and variability on agriculture and food security is severe in countries that heavily depend on rainfed subsistence agriculture. Examine climate change and variability and determinant factors of adaptation to ensure household food security in Basona Worena District, central highland of Ethiopia. Data were collected from the randomly selected 138 sample households, key informants and National Meteorological Agency. Rainfall and temperature trend and variability were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Precipitation Concentration Index. Household food security was determined using Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and Food Consumption Score. Moreover, Tobit Model was used to examine climate change and variability adaptation options, while ordered logistic regression was employed to examine the contribution of climate change and variability adaptation to household food security status from the food consumption dimension. In the study site, an increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing and variable annual and spring season rainfalls were observed. The site has experienced recurrent drought for the last 35 years (1981–2016). Farmers were practicing biophysical soil and water conservation technologies, agro-forestry, small scale irrigation, livelihood diversification, and growing of high yielding and drought resistant crop varieties. The study identified that extension advisory services, access to training, farm size, sex, frequency of flood, and access to credit determine farmers’ climate change and variability adaptation options. HFIAS and FCS analysis shows that food insecurity is high in the study site. Household food security status was influenced by climate variability and limited adaptation responses. The study suggests the implementation of feasible soil and water conservation, and livelihood diversification intervention to ensure household food security.

Climate change and variability have significantly impacted smallholder and subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The effectiveness of adaptation measures largely depends on how farmers perceive climate change and variability. Hence, understanding their perception and comparing it with long-term trends is crucial for designing appropriate responses. Thus, this study examined climate parameters and smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate change in the Jemma sub-basin. A total of 366 households were randomly selected from highland, midland, and lowland kebeles. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Grided monthly precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to examine the time series trends of rainfall and temperature. The MK trend test results revealed that yearly and summer season rainfall exhibit a non-significant increasing trend, while spring season rainfall shows a decreasing trend. The coefficient of variance shows that the monthly and spring season rainfall shows the highest variability (CV&gt;30 %), while the annual rainfall shows less variability. Similarly, the mean annual, maximum, and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend. Consequently, about 83.47 % of highland, 91.54 % of midland, and 100 % of lowland respondents feel the temperature rise, and 44.62 %, 66.2 %, and 100 % of highland, midland, and lowland respondents recognized the decreasing rainfall trend, respectively. The analysis result reveals that age, gender, access to climate information, education, farming experience, and market access significantly influence perceptions of temperature and rainfall trends. Therefore, farmers’ perceptions should be integrated into meteorological data analysis, and policymakers should consider these disparities when developing climate adaptation strategies.

Water is an important for all forms of life and it is becoming scarce natural resource in the future owing to climate variability / change which aggravates the situation. Water resources are inextricably linked with climate. Climate change and variability would be the principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss, hunger, famine and dislocation in the developing countries. Climate change impact studies reveal that annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10–40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10–30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Crop water availability shortage and excess affects the growth and development of the plants, yields and quality of produces. Climate change, which affect the water availability resources, which in turn affect agriculture in many ways. For instance in soil plant processes with an increase in soil water deficit by changes in soil water balance. Long term climate change and its effect on crop water requirements of major cereal crops like wheat, maize, sorghum and millet in 1990, 2020 and 2050 were estimated by FAO CROPWAT program and the adaptation strategies to be taken to combat climate change effect were also discussed in this paper.