Water, Governance, and Infrastructure for Enhancing Climate Resilience

This study aims at contributing to the vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes (CC) analysis of bordering communities of Togodo Reserve, in order to enhance their resilience. Specifically, the present study attempted to (i) identify the climatic hazards of the WRT; (ii) determine the impacts of climate variability and change on their livelihoods; (iii) assess the socio-economic vulnerability of these communities to food insecurity in relation to CC; and (iv) identify indigenous adaptation strategies to control the effects of CC. The methodological approach used is based on a factual research and a field investigation. The investigation is conducted in two villages around the reserve, namely Deve and Gbohoule. The results showed that climate variability and change were appreciated in different indicators by the local communities living around the WRT: Droughts, flooding, high winds and temperature increase with severe consequences on the communities (famine, destruction of tangible and intangible properties, loss of human life, populations’ migration). The communities are aware that humans are responsible for these events that have become recurrent from 2007 and occur almost every year. According to them, the causes of climate changes are deforestation (due to overexploitation of timber, fuelwood and shifting agriculture), bush fires, rapid increase in population, anger of gods due to irregularities of sacrifices and violations of customs. The communities are vulnerable to main climatic hazards and suffered from food insecurity. The factorial correspondence analysis (FCA)) carried out shows that the perception of the degree of exposure of households to risks depends on their standard of livelihood. Facing these climate events, the populations develop many adaptive strategies of which most are consistent with the national orientations and strategies. These adaptive strategies must be reinforced and supported in order to reduce the vulnerability of these populations to climate changes. Key words: Climate variability and change, communities, livelihood, vulnerability and adaptation, Wildlife Reserve of Togodo.

The aim of this article is to introduce the co-construction process as a productive approach to developing agricultural adaptation strategies to cope with climate change and variability in Quebec, Canada. The methodology is based on a critical synthesis of existing literature both of peer-reviewed articles and the grey literature that contain analyses on agriculture, climate change and adaptation. Our focus is on the approach which was used in a research project in Quebec dealing with agricultural adaptation and which was the result of almost 20 years of research by the co-author of this article into agricultural adaptation to climate change and variability in several regions in Quebec. Based on our research teams’ experiences, the co-construction approach can lead to a planned adaptation by farmers and as well by government agencies involved in supporting farmers’ adaptation to climate change and variability. While co-construction processes started as a top-down approach in Europe, it is increasingly initiated as a bottom-up approach. We introduce the origin of the adaptation concept and then differentiate between adaptation responses of biological systems and human systems. Co-construction overlaps to a certain extent with collaborative research, but co-construction does not need to incorporate researchers. Co-construction can also be part of a research action process, but once more, formal researchers need not be involved and the research action leadership can be undertaken by actors other than researchers. Adaptation has many characteristics and different types including several forms of adaptation that involve both private agents such as farmers and government agencies as well as non-governmental organizations. We also point out the similarities between the bottom-up perspective of current co-construction and the grounded theory approach in terms of methodology (i.e. data collection and analysis). Finally, we discuss the implementation of the co-construction approach in the context of agricultural adaptation to climate change and variability. Continued involvement with farmers has helped them appropriate the reality of climate change and variability which constitutes the first prerequisite in order to develop adaptation strategies.

Chapter 1 - Remote sensing of climate variability: An introduction

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

The impact of climate change and variability on agriculture and food security is severe in countries that heavily depend on rainfed subsistence agriculture. Examine climate change and variability and determinant factors of adaptation to ensure household food security in Basona Worena District, central highland of Ethiopia. Data were collected from the randomly selected 138 sample households, key informants and National Meteorological Agency. Rainfall and temperature trend and variability were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Precipitation Concentration Index. Household food security was determined using Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and Food Consumption Score. Moreover, Tobit Model was used to examine climate change and variability adaptation options, while ordered logistic regression was employed to examine the contribution of climate change and variability adaptation to household food security status from the food consumption dimension. In the study site, an increasing minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing and variable annual and spring season rainfalls were observed. The site has experienced recurrent drought for the last 35 years (1981–2016). Farmers were practicing biophysical soil and water conservation technologies, agro-forestry, small scale irrigation, livelihood diversification, and growing of high yielding and drought resistant crop varieties. The study identified that extension advisory services, access to training, farm size, sex, frequency of flood, and access to credit determine farmers’ climate change and variability adaptation options. HFIAS and FCS analysis shows that food insecurity is high in the study site. Household food security status was influenced by climate variability and limited adaptation responses. The study suggests the implementation of feasible soil and water conservation, and livelihood diversification intervention to ensure household food security.

In Africa, climate change exerts significant pressure on the agricultural sector. Current changes in climate for most parts of Mozambique have resulted in increased frequency of droughts, dry spells and uncertain rainfall. This has resulted in loss of food production and smallholder farmers are most vulnerable to these climatic disasters as they affect the food security status of the household. Despite an increased number of country level case studies, knowledge gaps continue to exist at the level of impact analysis. In addition, while adaptation and coping strategies with climate change and variability have become key themes in current global climate discussions and policy initiatives, literature on adaptation in Mozambique appears to be limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of smallholder farmers to climate change and adaptation strategies in Lichinga and Sussundenga districts of Mozambique. Using data obtained from a survey carried out in Lichinga and Sussundenga districts in Mozambique descriptive statistics analysis was undertaken using SPSS software to characterize the households, in terms of perceptions and coping strategies of the household to climate change. The farmers from both districts sited rainfall variability and higher temperatures to have severely affected maize production. Due to the late onset of rains, in Lichinga the planting period has changed from November (47.5%) to December (70%) while in Sussundenga the planting period has changed from September/October (40%) to November (62.5%). The rain seasons have become shorter and dry seasons are longer. Some farmers have switched from growing maize to growing drought tolerant crops, such as cassava, sweet potato and cultivation of horticultural crops in wetlands as strategies to cope with the climate change. Key words: Climate variability, farmer's perceptions, adaptation strategies.

Background/Aim : Climate Change has an impact on critical components of “One Health” such as human health, animal health, plant health and environmental health. Climate and environmental change also affects socio-economic determinants of “One Health” such as development, demographics, agriculture, animal production, global trade, food prices, poverty etc. The study aims to provide an analysis of the impacts of climate change on “One Health” and identify adaptation and mitigation strategies to address these impacts. Methods: The analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on “One Health” integrates the WHO Health Impact Assessment methodology with the FAO Biosecurity framework which includes human health (food safety), animal health, plant health and environmental health. The study provides a cross-sectoral analysis of the adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies to address climate change and variability challenges to “One Health” focusing in a case study in California’s green economy. Results: There are multiple pathways through which climate change may impact “One Health” including: changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, ocean warming and acidification, changes in complex contaminants’ transport pathways, and socio-economic and demographic factors among others. To address the challenges of climate change and variability to One Health is complex and requires trade-offs in a green economy framework. The case study in California addressing agriculture and environment sectors in show that decisions made in the agricultural sector impact environment, health and social factors and that health impact assessments are critical for policy change. Conclusion: To address the impacts of climate and environmental change One Health in a green economy it is necessary to develop inter-sectoral adaptation and mitigation strategies that are integrated in resilient climate development plans. Approaches such as health promoting agriculture policies and green chemistry are critical to mainstream health across sectors in California’s green economy. In this context health impact assessments facilitate decision-making and policy changes in a green economy since address socio-economic and development aspects.

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

This paper concentrates on impacts that regional and global climate changes may have on deltaic ecosystems using deltas in the Aral Sea basin as an example. In addition to an assessment of regional climate change and variability and their relationship to environmental conditions within inland river deltas, this paper examines the past development of the deltas (including consequences of human-induced alteration of the regional hydrologic cycle), climatic trends and ecosystem changes within them, and the relationships among future climatic and ecosystem changes that may occur. 11 figures, 2 tables, 71 references.

The significance of urban agriculture is increasingly being recognised across the globe. Urban agriculture’s contribution to food security and poverty reduction, especially for the urban poor, has received increasing attention in urban policy discourses (Satterthwaite et al. in Adapting to climate change in Urban areas; the possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income countries. IIED, London, 2007; Mutonodzo in Agriculture in urban planning: generating livelihoods and food security. Earthscan, London, 2009; Mkwambisi in Agriculture in urban planning: generating livelihoods and food security. Earthscan, London, Mkwambisi 2009). The impacts of climate change, climate variability and urban growth reduce the benefits derived from agro ecosystem services in peri-urban areas in most developing countries. Peri-urban areas play a significant role in providing ~80% of the vegetables consumed in urban areas of Malawi. However, the vegetable production is dependent on stream water or residual moisture from wetlands, which are being affected by climate change. This study investigated the viability of multi-stakeholder experimentation with sustainable technologies for improving vegetable production in a peri-urban setting experiencing water shortages due to climate change and variability in the Mulanje district in Southern Malawi. Using a participatory action research (PAR) approach, farmers, researchers, extensionists and village leaders worked together to source, test and evaluate various different horticultural production practices. Over a two-year period, they experimented with technologies such as bag (vertical) gardening, differential use of manure and fertiliser, new crops and crop varieties, seed bed preparation techniques and judicial use of pesticides. Those practices identified as successful in 2011 were replicated in 2012 for further evaluation. In general, the study found considerable improvements in vegetable production resulting from the improved agronomic practices. Further, many farmers found bag gardening more convenient due to reduced irrigation requirements, lower labor demands, all year round seasonal production, ease of access and crop security. Improved quality of produce, earlier harvest and increased total number of harvests of leafy vegetables due to manure incorporation, use of improved varieties and high yields in general were among other advantages that were realised. In addition, the technologies promoted minimal use of chemicals, which resulted in reduced seepage of inputs, thereby maintaining agro-ecosystem health. Most communities in the area have adopted the technologies as strategies for climate change adaptation. Scaling up these practices can therefore improve vegetable supply challenges arising from urbanisation, climate change and variability while reducing impacts on agro-ecosystem services.

Mountain snowpacks are key components of surface water resources, as snowmelt significantly contributes to streamflow and serves as an essential indicator of climate change and variability. Accurate estimation of snowmelt-induced streamflow and assessment of its potential response to climate change are therefore essential for effective water resources planning and management. This study presents a new coupled modeling framework that integrates a cellular automata model (CAM) to simulate snow cover area (SCA) with the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) to simulate daily streamflow. The model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainty on SCA and streamflow in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment. Four local climate scenarios were developed from an ensemble of nine downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs), assuming two warming levels for Spain (1.5 °C and 3.0 °C). The CAM–SRM framework was calibrated and validated using precipitation and temperature data from the AEMET 5 km gridded product for the period 2000–2020. Under future climate conditions, the model projected a substantial decrease in SCA and a two-month shorter snow season in warmer scenarios. An earlier onset of snowmelt peak flows is also expected, along with a projected decline in mean annual streamflow of 19.4–32.9%. These results indicate significant changes in the hydrological regime driven by climate change. The proposed modeling framework proves effective for reproducing snowmelt-driven streamflow dynamics in snow-dominated catchments and offers valuable insights for future water resources planning and management in mountainous regions. Graphical Abstract Graphical abstract description : This study presents a novel coupled modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow using the Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM). The new framework integrates a cellular automata model with the SRM, enabling streamflow simulations under non-historical conditions even in the absence of snow cover observations, which are required as input along with climate variables (precipitation and temperature) in the SRM formulation. The cellular automata model provides daily future snow cover simulations, which are incorporated into the SRM to generate streamflow projections. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on climate variables under four climate scenarios considering two warming levels for Spain (1.5 °C and 3.0 °C). These scenarios were derived from an ensemble of nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and downscaled using two different approaches: bias correction and delta change. This study identified the significant impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean snow-dominated basin (Canales basin, southern Spain). The results revealed increased temperatures and reduced precipitation, which led to substantial declines in snow cover and streamflow. This framework offers a valuable tool for water resource management and the development of adaptive climate strategies in snow-dominated mountain regions.

Water is an important for all forms of life and it is becoming scarce natural resource in the future owing to climate variability / change which aggravates the situation. Water resources are inextricably linked with climate. Climate change and variability would be the principal source of fluctuation in global food production, particularly in the semi-arid tropical countries of the developing world. In conjunction with other physical, social and political-economic factors, climate variability contributes to vulnerability to economic loss, hunger, famine and dislocation in the developing countries. Climate change impact studies reveal that annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10–40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10–30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Crop water availability shortage and excess affects the growth and development of the plants, yields and quality of produces. Climate change, which affect the water availability resources, which in turn affect agriculture in many ways. For instance in soil plant processes with an increase in soil water deficit by changes in soil water balance. Long term climate change and its effect on crop water requirements of major cereal crops like wheat, maize, sorghum and millet in 1990, 2020 and 2050 were estimated by FAO CROPWAT program and the adaptation strategies to be taken to combat climate change effect were also discussed in this paper.

Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated climate change is expected to aggravate some of the existing challenges and impose new risks beyond the range of current experiences. This study aimed at understanding current climate variability and future climate change and associated impacts, and providing insights on current climate risk management strategies and future adaptation options for adapting agriculture, in particular maize production.The study was conducted in the Central Rift Valley, which represents major cereal-based farming systems of the semi-arid environments of Ethiopia. A second case study area, Kobo Valley was also used for additional analysis in part of the study. Empirical statistical analyses, field survey methods, and a systems analytical approach, using field experimental data in combination with crop-climate simulation modelling were used to achieve the objectives of the study.Crop growth simulation modelling was carried out using two well-accepted crop models, which is an innovative feature of the methodology used in this thesis. The analysis revealed that rainfall exhibited high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 15-40%) during the period 1977-2007 in the CRV. The mean annual temperature significantly increased with 0.12 to 0.54 oC per decade during 1977-2007. Projections for future climate suggested that annual rainfall will change by -40 to +10% and the annual temperature is expected to increase in the range of 1.4 to 4.1 oC by 2080s. Simulated water-limited yields are characterized by high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation 36%) and about 60% of this variability is explained by the variation in growing season rainfall. Actual yields of maize in the CRV are only 28-30% of the simulated water-limited yield. Analysis of climate change scenarios showed that maize yield will decrease on average by 20% in the 2050s relative to a baseline climate due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in growing season rainfall. The negative impact of climate change is very likely, however, the extent of the negative impact has some uncertainties ranging from -2 to -29% depending on crop model and climate change scenario. From the selection of models used, it was concluded that General Circulation Models to assess future climate are the most important source of uncertainty in this study. In response to perceived impacts, farm households are implementing various coping and adaptation strategies. The most important current adaptive strategies include crop selection, adjusting planting time, in situ moisture conservation and income diversification. Lack of affordable technologies, high costs for agricultural inputs, lack of reliable information on weather forecasts, and insecure land tenure systems were identified as limiting factors of farmers’ adaptive capacity. The crop model-based evaluation of future adaptation options indicates that increasing nitrogen fertilization, use of irrigation and changes in planting dates can compensate for some of the negative impacts of climate change on maize production. Developing more heat tolerant and high yielding new cultivars is critical to sustain crop production under future climate change. It was clear from the study that enabling strategies targeted at agricultural inputs, credit supply, market access and strengthening of local knowledge and information services need to become an integral part of government policies to assist farmers in adapting to the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change.

Vulnerability and Adaptation of Livestock Producers to Climate Variability and Change

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research and review articles, arising from papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop held in Davos, Switzerland on 25–28 June 2001. The workshop was titled ‘Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts’, and was convened to reprise an earlier conference on the same subject that was held in Wengen, Switzerland in 1995 (Diaz et al., 1997). The Davos meeting had as its main goals, a discussion of the following key issues: (1) reviewing recent climatic trends in high elevation regions of the world, (2) assessing the reliability of various biological indicators as indicators of climatic change, and (3) assessing whether physical impacts of climatic change in high elevation areas are becoming evident, and to discuss a range of monitoring strategies needed to observe and to understand the nature of any changes.