Enhancing Mobile Network Capacity Planning with Emerging Technologies: A System Dynamics and Machine Learning-Based Approach

Higher Education (HE) in South Africa has been recently affected by high staff turnover in the science faculties. The higher education system is under severe pressure given that the academic cohort of scientists comprises a majority of ageing white males. Thus, the higher education sector will have to ensure it attracts and retains scientific staff to address this potential crisis. High turnover sometimes occurs as a result of poaching from ‘sister institutions’ but, in the main, is due to staff losses to the private sector because universities cannot match the salaries offered in the private sector. A shortage of scarce skills has left universities with no option but to appoint foreigners in some faculties. This has a negative impact on staff retention. Furthermore, a career in academia is sometimes embraced through default rather than conscious choice. This results in lower productivity as there is little motivation for new staff to perform to their potential since they see academia as a stepping-stone to their ‘real career.’ Therefore, this study, sought to evaluate leadership approaches to talent development and retention using a qualitative system dynamics model. System dynamics modelling is a computer simulation approach to addressing social issues that is rooted in the agency-structure debate. The fundamental thesis of system dynamics is that the behaviour or observed phenomena in any system over time is largely determined by its structure and that effective changes or modifications can only be achieved through an understanding of the structure. The research was primarily qualitative, as system dynamics requires elicitation and understanding of the prevailing mental models in a system as the basis for developing a simulation model. System dynamics modelling primarily follows the systems thinking paradigm, which is a philosophical world view that is rooted in holism. The system thinking paradigm holds that all things and events inadvertently form part of a larger whole and they can be best understood within the context of this larger whole. A purposive sample of 30 members of staff from human resources management, executive management and members of the University Council was used to collect data through interviews and focus groups. Data was analysed using NVivo and a qualitative system dynamic modelling approach. The findings of the study led to identification of four consolidated themes, viz. talent development and retention; a system for talent management and retention; a process for talent management and retention, and recommendations for talent management and retention. The afore-mentioned themes were further categorised into nine sub-themes. The results show that several factors impact talent management, including bureaucracy and a lack of proper promotion processes. The findings from the system dynamics approach led to the formulation of four key variables: work pressurised induced turnover, resource dynamics for staff development, training dynamics and consultative strategic planning. The identified variables led to the development of an integrated SD-CLD model on leadership approaches to talent development and retention, which is a key contribution of this study. Therefore, institutions of higher learning must come up with talent development strategies that adhere to the prevailing laws such as the Employment Equity Act to achieve their strategic goals. A targeted training initiative is fundamental in developing the skills of academics in terms of teaching and learning and research. Hence, departmental courses, seminars and workshops for teaching and learning research excellence and general academic development need to be seriously debated within a given collegial, intellectual, and academic environment. This study has contributed to the literature on talent management, leadership, and retention from a university of technology where resource, constraints, culture, and politics play a crucial role on the final recipe. The study has further provided a springboard for altering or reviewing institutional policies so that the needs of employees are properly addressed, and the talent management framework is enhanced. Future research should consider expanding the scope of the study by other variables that are key to organisational effectiveness using a system dynamics approach.

Developing sustainable power systems by evaluating techno-economic, environmental, and social indicators from a system dynamics approach

Nowadays, one of the most significant problems in mining activities is the significance of analyzing environmental issues along with mining, concentration, and mineral processing operations to achieve the goals of sustainable development. Nevertheless, mine owners refuse to include environmental costs (EC) and consider them unprofitable. Due to the ever-increasing importance of environmental and social topics in recent years, there is a vital need for assessing the EC and its impact on total mining costs and implementing green strategies by the mining managers and engineers. The current study tries to model the mining cost structure by considering the causal relationships between different factors affecting open-pit mining costs to highlight the EC’s role. Furthermore, this research evaluates the effectiveness of implementing each possible mining green strategy in a large-scale copper mine using the System Dynamics (SD) approach. In this regard, seven scenarios and a combination of different environmental strategies, including mine reclamation, an environmental strategy for a condensation and processing plant, and environmental mining operations, have been considered for the SD-based economic analysis. The simultaneous use of the green mining strategies for the concentration and processing plant (Scenario 4) shows a high impact on cost reduction in the mining operation.

Cell phones waste is the fastest growing electronics waste across the globe. Still in developing nations like India, most of this waste is routed to the unorganized sector causing irreparable damage to environment and health. This study has highlighted the economic, environmental and social benefits that India can gain by recycling the gold contained in discarded cell phones in an environmentally sound manner. In this work, system dynamics (SD) approach has been employed to develop a model of circular flow of gold in cell phones from manufacturing stage to recycling stage. Using the SD model developed, nine scenarios have been simulated and behavior trends of various variables under consideration are studied which provide very useful insights to facilitate policy decisions to promote cell phones recycling in India.

Long-term sustainability in water supply systems is a major challenge due to water resources depletion, climate change and population growth. This paper presents a scenario-based approach for performance assessment of intervention strategies in water resources and supply systems (WRSS). A system dynamics approach is used for modelling the key WRSS components and their complex interactions with natural and human systems and is combined with a multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability performance assessment of strategies in each scenario. The scenarios combine population growth rates with groundwater extraction limits against two types of intervention strategies. The methodology was demonstrated on a real-world case study in Iran. Results show scenario-based analysis can provide suitable strategies leading to long-term sustainability of water resources for each scenario externally imposed on the water systems. For scenarios with either no threshold or one threshold of groundwater extraction limit, the only effective strategies for sustainable groundwater preservation are those involving agricultural water demand decrease with an average recovery rate of 130% for groundwater resources while other strategies of agricultural groundwater abstraction (constant/increase rates) fail to sustainably recover groundwater resources. However, all analysed strategies can provide sustainability of water resources with an average recovery rate of 33% for groundwater resources only when scenarios with two threshold limits are in place. The impact of scenarios with population growth rates on groundwater conservation is quite minor with an average recovery rate of 11% compared to scenarios of groundwater extraction limits with an average recovery rate of 79% between no threshold and two threshold limits.

Forecasting unemployment and employment: A system dynamics approach

The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has generated significant economic and social value, alongside risks to user privacy. For this purpose, this study investigates privacy protection in human-AI interaction by employing a combined approach of evolutionary game and system dynamics. A three-party game model was developed to analyze the interactive effects and evolution of privacy protection strategies among the government, GenAI company, and users. Sensitivity analysis through system dynamics simulations was conducted on four kinds of factors—government, company, users, and incentive mechanisms, to reveal how these factors influence the strategy choices of the three parties. The results suggest that the government’s reputation, subsidies, free-riding benefits, fines, rewards from GenAI company to users, and the cost–benefit considerations of all three parties are key factors affecting strategic decisions. Moderate fine and subsidy policies can effectively promote privacy protection, with subsidy policies proving to be more effective than penalty policies. This paper provides theoretical support and decision-making guidance for balancing technological development and privacy protection in human–AI interaction, contributing to the regulated and orderly development of Generative Artificial Intelligence.

Improving hazard characterization in microbial risk assessment using next generation sequencing data and machine learning: Predicting clinical outcomes in shigatoxigenic Escherichia coli

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to employ an integrated approach of interpretive ranking process (IRP) and system dynamics (SD) for modelling the key risk factors for a typical construction project.Design/methodology/approachThe risk parameters and performance measures applicable in the construction industry have been identified through extensive literature review and discussions with experts from the construction industry. Based on the literature review, a questionnaire was designed and 64 responses were considered. The list of 20 risk parameters and 32 performance measures relevant for a construction industry is reduced to five risk factors and five performance measure factors using factor analysis. IRP modelling is employed to examine the contextual relationships among risk factors and to rank them with respect to performance measure factors. Subsequently, the results of IRP model were utilised as inputs to SD analysis. The SD analysis is conducted for two models, namely, risk factor model and risk variable model to understand the impact of interventions offered by project management team on risk reduction and mitigation.FindingsThe developed IRP model shows that the risk factor dimension “construction management” has a high likeliness to occur during the construction phase.Research limitations/implicationsThe research demonstrates an application of proposed approach for a typical construction environment and hence the results cannot be generalised.Originality/valueThis research addresses real life complexities in construction project by modelling critical risk factors using an integrate approach of IRP and SD. The proposed approach would facilitate project managers to devise appropriate risk mitigation strategies for a construction project.

System reliability is considered as an important performance index. Performance of engineering systems can be assessed by various techniques. The traditional analytical approach consists of developing a mathematical model that represents the system and to evaluate its reliability indices. There have been attempts in the literature to derive more realistic approaches for the reliability analysis of systems, for example, based on simulations. This paper proposes a hybrid approach called Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics simulation approach for performing a reliability analysis and for studying the dynamic behavior of systems. This approach will have the advantages of both the methodologies that of Markov processes as well as system dynamics. The proposed framework is illustrated by a numerical example for a single component system with increasing failure rates. The results of the simulation when compared with those obtained by the traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the Markov System Dynamics (MSD) approach as an alternative for reliability analysis.

Supply chain management integrates the entire business process of a product from upstream to downstream with the aim of delivering products to consumers in a timely manner and precise quantity without overriding profit. The application of dynamics systems is aimed to provide a holistic view of the system and to identify how interrelationship affects the system as a whole. System dynamics approach is used to analyze the efforts to improve performance. Besides being used as an analysis related to the model, system dynamics can also be used to formulate effective policy related to the profit distribution in case study of bell pepper supply chain. In this study, several scenarios were used as references to improve bell pepper supply chain performance in Regency X. The stake holders in the supply chain were farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. There were three sub-models used in system dynamics, namely the sub-model farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. The model in the system dynamics was then developed to find out the best scenario in improving the performance of bell pepper supply chain. The scenario developed consisted of 4 scenarios in which scenario 1 became the basic scenario as the comparison of simulation results. Then, Scenario 2 was a Supply-Demand arrangement to reduce losses obtained at the level of middleman and wholesaler. The policy of Scenario 3 was warehouse procurement, which was a model improvement scenario in Scenario 3. Lastly, Scenario 4 was an increase in the level of demand / market expansion without an increase in the number of production. The highest total supply chain profit from the four scenarios was in Scenario 3, while the lowest was Scenario 2.

Measuring the functional dynamics of product-service system: A system dynamics approach

The purpose of this paper is to model dynamic feedback effects and complex interactions among risks affecting foodgrains transportation using a system dynamics approach. The risk scenario is simulated using a system dynamics model considering risk index values. It has been observed that there is a significant increase in inventory level from 8.39% to 28.4% and vehicle capacity from 8.99% to 28.4% with a change in risk value by 30%. This can help managers to develop inventory and transportation policies. It will, therefore, help to generate risk reduction scenarios for better availability of foodgrains through integrated risk control and mitigation in a supply chain. The key findings drawn for transportation and inventory management of foodgrains will help policy-makers to improve the efficiency of foodgrains supply chain. This research uniquely analyses the dynamic implication of inventory-transportation policies on foodgrains transportation system using system dynamics modelling approach.

There has been low adherence of antenatal care utilization (ANC) in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) despite its associated negative outcome on women and their unborn babies. Although several studies have examined ANC, the majority focus on isolated aspects and do not explore the holistic approach to understand its dynamics. The system dynamics approach provides a deeper understanding of the phenomenon by examining the underlying factors, causes, effects, feedback, and delays. This study aimed at understanding factors that influence ANC utilization using the system's dynamics approach. An interpretive systematic review to establish multifaceted and context-specific processes was done between May and November 2019. Data from 24 articles were synthesized and used to build causal loop diagrams, which were validated through focus group discussions and interviews with stakeholders. Results revealed human resource numbers and welfare, awareness campaigns, peer support groups, and community-based engagement as key leverage points towards ANC improvement.

Pharmacokinetics: a dynamic systems approach