Enhancing nuclear data validation analysis by using machine learning

In this work, we aim to show that machine learning algorithms are promising tools for the identification of nuclear data that contribute to increased errors in transport simulations. We demonstrate this through an application of a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) to the Whisper/MCNP6 criticality validation library to identify nuclear data that are associated with an increase of the bias (simulated-experimental ) in the calculations. Specifically, the sensitivity profiles (with respect to nuclear data) of solution benchmarks are used to predict the bias, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to explain how the sensitivities are related to the predicted bias. The SHAP values can be interpreted as sensitivity coefficients of the machine learning model to the sensitivities that are used to make predictions of bias. Using the SHAP values, we can identify specific subsets of nuclear data that have the highest probability of influencing bias. We demonstrate the utility of this method by showing how SHAP values were used to identify an inconsistency in the inelastic scattering nuclear data. The methodology presented here is not limited to transport problems and can be applied to other simulations if there are experimental measurements to compare against, simulations of those experimental measurements, and the ability to calculate sensitivities of the model output with respect to the data inputs.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital variable for land‐atmosphere interactions that links surface energy balance, water, and carbon cycles. The in situ techniques can measure ET accurately but the observations have limited spatial and temporal coverage. Modeling approaches have been used to estimate ET at broad spatial and temporal scales, while accurately simulating ET at regional scales remains a major challenge. In this study, we upscale ET from eddy covariance flux tower sites to the regional scale with machine learning algorithms. Five machine learning algorithms are employed for ET upscaling including artificial neural network, Cubist, deep belief network, random forest, and support vector machine. The machine learning methods are trained and tested at 36 flux towers sites (65 site years) across the Heihe River Basin and are then applied to estimate ET for each grid cell (1 km × 1 km) within the watershed and for each day over the period 2012–2016. The artificial neural network, Cubist, random forest, and support vector machine algorithms have almost identical performance in estimating ET and have slightly lower root‐mean‐square error than deep belief network at the site scale. The random forest algorithm has slightly lower relative uncertainty at the regional scale than other methods based on three‐cornered hat method. Additionally, the machine learning methods perform better over densely vegetated conditions than barren land or sparsely vegetated conditions. The regional ET generated from the machine learning approaches captured the spatial and temporal patterns of ET at the regional scale.

P125. Development of a novel ensemble machine learning algorithm for prediction of complications and readmission after anterior cervical spinal fusion

In the era of artificial intelligence, machine learning methods are successfully used in various fields. Machine learning has attracted extensive attention from investors in the financial market, especially in stock price prediction. However, one argument for the machine learning methods used in stock price prediction is that they are black-box models which are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we focus on the future stock price prediction with the historical stock price by machine learning and deep learning methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Bayesian classifier (BC), decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM), the embedded CNN, and the embedded BiLSTM. Firstly, we manually design several financial time series where the future price correlates with the historical stock prices in pre-designed modes, namely the curve-shape-feature (CSF) and the non-curve-shape-feature (NCSF) modes. In the CSF mode, the future prices can be extracted from the curve shapes of the historical stock prices. Conversely, in the NCSF mode, they can’t. Secondly, we apply various algorithms to those pre-designed and real financial time series. We find that the existing machine learning and deep learning algorithms fail in stock price prediction because in the real financial time series, less information of future prices is contained in the CSF mode, and perhaps more information is contained in the NCSF. Various machine learning and deep learning algorithms are good at handling the CSF in historical data, which are successfully applied in image recognition and natural language processing. However, they are inappropriate for stock price prediction on account of the NCSF. Therefore, accurate stock price prediction is the key to successful investment, and new machine learning algorithms handling the NCSF series are needed.

The exploration of internet finance by using neural network

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a complex syndrome without a definitive treatment. For these patients, insulin resistance (IR) is associated with worse renal and patient outcomes. Until now, no predictive model using machine learning (ML) has been reported on IR in CKD patients. Methods: The CKD population studied was based on results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) of the USA from 1999 to 2012. The homeostasis model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) was used to assess insulin resistance. We began the model building process via the ML algorithm (random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost), logistic regression algorithms, and deep neural learning (DNN)). We compared different receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from different algorithms. Finally, we used SHAP values (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to explain how the different ML models worked. Results: In this study population, 71,916 participants were enrolled. Finally, we analyzed 1,229 of these participants. Their data were segregated into the IR group (HOMA IR > 3, n = 572) or non-IR group (HOMR IR ≤ 3, n = 657). In the validation group, RF had a higher accuracy (0.77), specificity (0.81), PPV (0.77), and NPV (0.77). In the test group, XGboost had a higher AUC of ROC (0.78). In addition, XGBoost also had a higher accuracy (0.7) and NPV (0.71). RF had a higher accuracy (0.7), specificity (0.78), and PPV (0.7). In the RF algorithm, the body mass index had a much larger impact on IR (0.1654), followed by triglyceride (0.0117), the daily calorie intake (0.0602), blood HDL value (0.0587), and age (0.0446). As for the SHAP value, in the RF algorithm, almost all features were well separated to show a positive or negative association with IR. Conclusion: This was the first study using ML to predict IR in patients with CKD. Our results showed that the RF algorithm had the best AUC of ROC and the best SHAP value differentiation. This was also the first study that included both macronutrients and micronutrients. We concluded that ML algorithms, particularly RF, can help determine risk factors and predict IR in patients with CKD.

Air pollution in Macau has become a serious problem following the Pearl River Delta’s (PRD) rapid industrialization that began in the 1990s. With this in mind, Macau needs an air quality forecast system that accurately predicts pollutant concentration during the occurrence of pollution episodes to warn the public ahead of time. Five different state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms were applied to create predictive models to forecast PM2.5, PM10, and CO concentrations for the next 24 and 48 h, which included artificial neural networks (ANN), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), and multiple linear regression (MLR), to determine the best ML algorithms for the respective pollutants and time scale. The diurnal measurements of air quality data in Macau from 2016 to 2021 were obtained for this work. The 2020 and 2021 datasets were used for model testing, while the four-year data before 2020 and 2021 were used to build and train the ML models. Results show that the ANN, RF, XGBoost, SVM, and MLR models were able to provide good performance in building up a 24-h forecast with a higher coefficient of determination (R2) and lower root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and biases (BIAS). Meanwhile, all the ML models in the 48-h forecasting performance were satisfactory enough to be accepted as a two-day continuous forecast even if the R2 value was lower than the 24-h forecast. The 48-h forecasting model could be further improved by proper feature selection based on the 24-h dataset, using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) value test and the adjusted R2 value of the 48-h forecasting model. In conclusion, the above five ML algorithms were able to successfully forecast the 24 and 48 h of pollutant concentration in Macau, with the RF and SVM models performing the best in the prediction of PM2.5 and PM10, and CO in both 24 and 48-h forecasts.

Parameter importance assessment improves efficacy of machine learning methods for predicting snow avalanche sites in Leh-Manali Highway, India

Use of machine learning (ML) and data mining (DM) algorithms has surfaced more often in the recent years for disease risk prediction problems in the healthcare communities. Several traditional feature selection models are combined with the DM and ML algorithms to improve accuracy of the disease risk prediction. In this study, a new Bio-inspired Ensemble Feature Selection (BEFS) model is introduced which is applied with the DM and ML algorithms. In the BEFS model, the most relevant and highly contributing features in the prediction are determined with a bio-inspired algorithm i.e., genetic algorithm, and an ensemble algorithm i.e., random forest algorithm. These important features obtained from the proposed model are then combined in various combinations and applied with the DM and ML algorithms, here logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF), and the results obtained are promising. The experiment is executed using the famous ML language R. To accomplish this objective, the Breast Cancer Wisconsin (Diagnostic) dataset of UCI (University of California, Irvine) ML repository is utilized. In the experimental outcomes, the highest accuracy attained with the BEFS model is 96.49%, the AUC (Area Under Curve) achieved is 96%, and the sensitivity is 98.11%. These results, which greatly improve the disease risk prediction, are higher than several other existing works, while utilizing only six most relevant features out of the thirty two features of the dataset.

Thalassemia trait (TT) and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) are two common types of microcytic hypochromic anemia (MHA), but current diagnostic methods have limitations. This research sought to employ machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify MHA using erythrocyte parameters to distinguish between TT and IDA. One hundred and ninety-three subjects with MHA (98 TT and 95 IDA) were retrospectively analyzed. The cohort was randomized to training set (60%), validation set (20%) and test set (20%). Erythrocyte parameters were collected on an automated hematology analyzer (DxH800, Beckman Coulter), and five ML algorithms were selected to build discriminant models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, logistic regression, AdaBoost and LightGBM. In the assessment of discriminant performance of different models, indicators including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, AUC, NPV, PPV, cutoff, F1 score and Kappa coefficients were utilized. Among the five ML algorithms aforementioned, the Random Forest and logistic regression models presented excellent discriminant performance, outperforming other models in the testing set, with the AUC value, sensitivity, specificity, and ACC of 0.977, 0.928, 0.953, and 0.940 for Random Forest, and 0.978, 0.879, 0.979, 0.928 for logistic regression. Eight vital peripheral erythrocyte parameters were finally selected, including RBC, RDW, MCV, MCHC, RDWSD, HGB, MAF, and LHD. We successfully developed a discriminant model using ML algorithms based on erythrocyte parameters to identify MHA rapidly from TT or IDA, which may assist patients in taking preventive measures.

Machine learning methods, including Deep learnings are popular for data processing. Deep learning methods have shown great promise in applied in natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Text classification is a supervised machine learning task that involves labelled documents to train classifier. Previous works involving machine learning and deep learning methods for text classification have been tested with relatively small- sized data instances. In this paper, we compared the performance of the machine leaning and deep learning algorithms in text classification task. This paper also studied, explored and compared the scalability of these methods with respect to bigger data instances. We used support vector machines (SVM), Logistic regression, Random forest and Naive Bayes Machine leaning algorithms and convolutional neural network (CNN) deep learning method. The task involved a multi-class classification problem involving six (6) classes consisting of six thousand (6,000) data instances with an average of 20 sentences in each data instance. The CNN deep leaning algorithm outperformed all the machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of over 85%. This is because the filter weights are leaning are updated in backward propagation in each epoch, hence, this result in better result compared to the traditional methods.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

In sustainable and competitive business management, it is crucial for organizations to consider organizational change and transformational leadership in human resource (HR) management to adapt to the changes in their environment. This capability enables large-scale enterprises to maintain their presence in an increasingly competitive environment through enhanced management capacity. Enterprises that adopt transformational leadership in HR management must equip leadership candidates with competencies such as creating a shared vision, providing appropriate role models, encouraging the adoption of group goals, meeting high performance expectations, and providing individual support and the development of intellectual stimulation. By identifying potential leadership candidates using a decision support model, the necessary competencies can be developed through in-service training and experiential learning during their careers. Innovative and effective approaches to identifying leadership candidates can be developed by analyzing complex big data using advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. In this article, a forecast model using machine learning (ML) algorithms for a human resource management career planning approach was developed for the Turkish Post Corporation (PTT) and it was tested to predict potential leadership candidates by analyzing the big data of 5000 employees. The Turkish Post Corporation ML algorithms were applied to 100 randomly selected data points using the k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to predict the types of titles held by the staff employed at PTT. The kNN, GB, RF, and SVM algorithms achieved accuracy rates of 96%, 91%, 73%, and 41%, respectively. The case study results indicate that promotion decisions in large-scale and rooted enterprises can be effectively modeled using big data and ML algorithms, highlighting significant potential for HR management and leadership development practices in the public sector.

HEGM: Hierarchical Ensemble Generation Model for nuclear reaction cross sections generation.

Clinical prediction rules could help identify children at risk of slowed growth after an episode of diarrheal illness, and these rules may be generalizable to all children, regardless of diarrhea status.