Grain Transportation Report, May 30, 2019

Winter storms making landfall in western North America can generate heavy precipitation and other significant weather, leading to floods, landslides, and other hazards that cause significant damage and loss of life. To help alleviate these negative impacts, the California Land-falling Jets (CALJET) and Pacific Land-falling Jets (PACJET) experiments took extra meteorological observations in the coastal region to investigate key research questions and aid operational West Coast 0–48-h weather forecasting. This article presents results from a study of how information provided by CALJET and PACJET was used by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and forecast users. The primary study methodology was analysis of qualitative data collected from observations of forecasters and from interviews with NWS personnel, CALJET–PACJET researchers, and forecast users. The article begins by documenting and discussing the many types of information that NWS forecasters combine to generate forecasts. Within this context, the article describes how forecasters used CALJET–PACJET observations to fill in key observational gaps. It then discusses researcher–forecaster interactions and examines how weather forecast information is used in emergency management decision making. The results elucidate the important role that forecasters play in integrating meteorological information and translating forecasts for users. More generally, the article illustrates how CALJET and PACJET benefited forecasts and society in real time, and it can inform future efforts to improve human-generated weather forecasts and future studies of the use and value of meteorological information.

We evaluated post-release stratification (after banding) developed by Schwarz et al. (1988) to improve managers' capability to detect and account for heterogeneity in survival among mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) recovered along the upper Mississippi River (UMR). We used band recoveries from 4 banding reference areas in the Prairie Pothole Region spanning 25 years and stratified them by 4 recovery areas in the Central and Mississippi flyways: UMR, UMR-vicinity (UMRV), lower Mississippi River (LMR), and southern plains (SP). We validated the assumption of fidelity to migratory routes and applied post-stratification to estimate recovery and survival rates for mallards recovered in each stratum. Average distance between geographical centers, or centroids, of direct and indirect recoveries was 246.7 km, supporting the assumption of migratory fidelity (P > 0.05). A model with heterogeneous recovery was selected in a majority of tests among strata, due in part to unequal sizes of the 4 recovery strata. However, in most (54.7%) cases survival was estimated to be homogeneous among these strata; only 10.9% of tests among strata rejected (P < 0.05) homogeneous survival in favor of heterogeneous survival. Estimates of homogeneous survival of mallards recovered along the UMR ranged from 52.8% for after-hatch-year (AHY) females banded in southwestern Manitoba to 72.4% for hatch-year (HY) males banded in southwestern Saskatchewan. Survival estimates for the UMR and UMRV recovery strata were not higher (P ≥ 0.06) than estimates from the LMR and SP recovery strata in most cases. Estimated survival was as much as 48.6% less between HY females recovered on the UMR and the LMR, but survival differences averaged 11.1% among all the cases when heterogeneous models were selected. Post-release stratification applied at this regional scale often reduced samples to insufficient size to detect heterogeneity among strata. Biologists should not use evidence provided by this stratified analysis of mallard survival to justify large-scale habitat protection of the UMR.

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

ABSTRACT: Periodic flood disturbance is a well known controlling factor of in channel and floodplain ecosystem function. However, channel manipulations during the last century have potentially altered hydrologic fluctuations, and thus ecosystem function. We examined temporal river stage hydrology, through autocorrelation analysis, at seven gauges along the Mississippi River to quantify flow periodicity and effects of systematic channel modifications on flow periodicity. Intraannual variation follows a strong one‐year cycle of six months higher flow and six months lower flow for the entire Mississippi River drainage, with precipitation as a driving force. Interannual hydrologic variation differs between the upper and lower river segments. A clear quasi‐biennial oscillation pattern was evident throughout the lower river section. The effect of channel alterations was a decreased magnitude of differences between lower and higher flows. The upper section, however, suggests a 12‐to 14‐year periodicity prior to alterations and a decreased duration of lower flow years following systematic modifications. Interannual variograms clearly depict very different temporal hydrology between the upper Mississippi River and the lower Mississippi River, suggesting the simple transfer of knowledge from one segment to the other oversimplifies the complexity of a large river system.

Effective internal risk and crisis communication can improve organizational functioning, which ultimately can improve community resilience to crises. However, little is known about communicative behaviors associated with effective internal risk and crisis communication. Microboundary spanning theory provides a fruitful framework for examining organizations’ internal risk and crisis communication. While most microboundary spanning work examines corporate communicative behaviors, our study extends this perspective by applying it to a non-corporate context. Specifically, this study explores U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters’ communicative behaviors through 32 in-depth face-to-face interviews. Findings reveal that NWS forecasters engage in megaphoning and scouting with organizational partners and community members. These communicative behaviors are strategic and spontaneous to mitigate the impact of threats on communities. Negative megaphoning seems to contribute to organizational partners’ trust in the NWS, and trust appears to be an integral factor in the success of positive megaphoning. Findings also uncover the need for additional cross-office information seeking. Ultimately, both megaphoning and scouting enhance the NWS’s capacity to save lives during severe weather.

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters across the west coast of the United States often deal with cool season hail showers that produce hazardous driving conditions. These small hail events, with diameters averaging 5.8 mm, occur with cold upper troughs that support weak instability favorable for low-topped convection and reflectivity values averaging 48 dBZ. The public generally assumes that heavy snow is common across west coast mountains, while heavy rain prevails near sea level. However, motorists can be caught offguard when wet, relatively warm low elevation roadways suddenly transition to icy hail-covered conditions. Thus, west coast small hail events represent an opportunity for the NWS to provide tailored messaging that can modify public perceptions and optimize outcomes. This research examines environments supportive of accumulating small hail over the western United States during the period 2008–2018, and supplements the environmental analysis with a summary of enhanced impact-based decision support techniques used to alert NWS partners and the general public.

Knowledge of environments used during early life history and movement patterns of Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and Silver Carp (H. molitrix), collectively termed bigheaded carps, in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) would be valuable for informing control measures to limit further population expansion and impacts of these species. Lock and Dam 19 (LD19) is a high-head dam on the UMR that delineates downriver areas where bigheaded carps are well established from upriver pools where these species are less abundant and evidence of reproduction and recruitment are limited. Principal natal environments supporting recruitment of emerging bigheaded carp populations in the UMR are unknown. The objectives of this study were to (1) infer environments occupied during early-life stages by bigheaded carps collected in UMR Pools 19–21 during 2013–2014 using otolith microchemistry and stable isotope analyses, and (2) use early-life environment assignments and capture location to identify individuals that passed through LD19. Differences in multivariate water chemistry signatures (Sr:Ca, Ba:Ca and δ18O) among the UMR, its tributaries, and the Missouri and Middle Mississippi rivers enabled development of a classification model for inferring early-life environment of bigheaded carps. Multiple sources of recruits, including from tributaries, have contributed to upriver expansion of bigheaded carps in the UMR. Sustainable control of bigheaded carps upstream of LD19 will likely require efforts to control local recruitment and immigration from downriver. The frequency of bigheaded carps collected in Pool 19 that were downstream of LD19 during early life suggests that bigheaded carps upstream of LD19 still predominantly consisted of immigrants from downriver during 2013–2014. Otolith chemistry provides an approach for assessing the extent to which changes in abundance of bigheaded carps upstream of LD19 are associated with local recruitment or immigration from downriver.

Shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus are a large-river fish distributed throughout the Mississippi River basin, including the lower 1,533 km of the Mississippi River where riverine habitat has been and continues to be modified for navigation and is a potential site for development of instream hydrokinetic electric power generation. Information about habitat use and preference is essential to future conservation efforts. Shovelnose sturgeon have previously been found to select particular habitat types, and these selected habitats vary seasonally; although these past analyses do not consider the selected habitats in a landscape context. We used ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) that uses distributions of telemetry locations and environmental variables to model habitat suitability in a landscape context. We recorded 333 locations of shovelnose sturgeon during July–December 2013 that included periods of relatively high and low river stages. The ENFA analysis indicated high-suitability locations were in or near deep water during both high and low river stages. During high river stages, high-suitability locations were near island tip habitat, deep water, and steep bottom slope and far from main channel habitat. During low stages, high-suitability locations were in or near deep water and main channel habitat and far from secondary channel and wing dike habitats. This landscape-scale analysis supports seasonal shifts in habitat use and provides insights that can be used to inform habitat conservation and management to benefit shovelnose sturgeon in the lower Mississippi River and possibly other large rivers.

For the week ending March 7, total inspections of grain (corn, wheat, and soybeans) for export from all major U.S. export regions reached 2.24 million metric tons (mmt). This total is a 1 percent decrease from the previous week, a 20 percent decrease from last year, and is 15 percent below the 3-year average. Despite the decrease in total inspections of grain, wheat inspections jumped 21 percent from week to week. However, the increase in wheat inspections could not offset the decrease in inspections of corn and soybeans, which accounted for 72 percent of total grain inspections. Grain inspections in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) decreased 9 percent from the previous week, but Mississippi Gulf grain inspections increased 6 percent.

Periodic summer hypoxia occurring in the Northern Gulf of Mexico has been attributed to large nutrient inputs, especially nitrate‐nitrogen, from the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River system. The 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan calls for river corridor wetland restoration to reduce nitrate loads, but it is largely unknown how effective riverine wetland systems in the lower Mississippi River are for nitrate removal. We carried out an intensive isotope study to address this question by comparing nitrate isotopic signatures of the well‐channelized Mississippi River with those of the Atchafalaya River, which has extensive floodplains and backwater swamps. We investigated changes in δ15NNO3 and δ18ONO3 for water samples collected biweekly to monthly over a 2‐year period at the Atchafalaya River outlets (Morgan City and Wax Lake) and on the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge. In addition, in situ water quality parameters including temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were recorded for each sampling date. Waters from both rivers showed moderately high nitrate concentration (&gt;1 mg l−1) and undetectable (&lt; 0.01 mg l−1) nitrite throughout the study period. The Mississippi River had slightly, but significantly higher (p=0.01) mean nitrate concentrations (1.5 mg l−1) and higher δ15NNO3 (7.7‰) than the Atchafalaya (1.1 mg l−1, 7.0‰); while no difference in δ18ONO3 (4.6‰) was found between the rivers. Flux‐weighted mean isotope values were overall lower than mean values for both the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, with a greater difference between the two rivers (7.4‰ versus 6.5‰, respectively). River flooding and hurricane storm surge also appeared to affect nitrate isotopic values. The lack of large difference in isotopic values between the Atchafalaya and Mississippi Rivers suggests that the majority of nitrate is transported through the Atchafalaya River with relatively little processing, and that riverine floodplains and wetlands are not effective sinks for nitrate, as previously assumed, because of insufficient residence time and well‐oxygenated river waters. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Every day, the U.S. electricity-generating industry decides how to meet the electricity demand anticipated over the next 24 h. Various generating units are available to meet the demand, and each unit may have its own production lead time, start-up cost, and production cost. Total costs can be minimized if electricity demand is accurately forecast. Accurate demand forecasts, in turn, depend on accurate temperature forecasts. This paper estimates the cost savings (i.e., benefits) attributable to temperature forecasts used by the U.S. electricity-generation industry. It does this by establishing the relationship between the quality of temperature forecasts and the quality of electricity demand forecasts at six sites around the United States. It then draws on earlier work by Hobbs et al. on the relationship between the quality of demand forecasts and production costs to estimate the percentage of cost savings from different temperature forecasts. Finally, these cost savings are extrapolated to estimate the total benefits, and incremental benefits, for the United States as a whole. The total benefits of U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts are estimated to be $166 million. The additional benefits potentially obtainable from a perfect temperature forecast are $75 million per year. It is estimated that an incremental 1% improvement in the forecast quality (from the current NWS forecast) would be worth an additional $1.4 million per year. These numbers do not include other possible benefits of forecasts to the electricity industry, such as those from the improved scheduling of plant maintenance.

In a competitive power supply business environment, line ampacity predictions are required by electric power utilities for economic generation planning, system dispatching, contingency planning, security analysis, and for normal and emergency operation of electric power systems. The line ampacity system featured in this article calculates ampacity from general purpose National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts and does not require additional hardware on power lines. By designing the ampacity expert system with objects and rules, it can be easily implemented in small and large electric companies. The Line Ampacity System (LINEAMPS) is a PC/Windows-based, power-line ampacity, expert-system program for the estimation of line ampacity during steady-state, dynamic state, and transient conditions. It was developed by the application of artificial intelligence using object-oriented, knowledge-base design of the power line environment. The expert system provides hourly values of line ampacity up to 7 days in advance and is used for the operation, planning, and design of transmission and distribution lines at all voltages. >

Agricultural influence on landscape sensitivity in the Upper Mississippi River Valley

The Mississippi River and other large rivers have the potential to regulate nitrogen export from terrestrial landscapes, and thus mitigate eutrophication in downstream aquatic ecosystems. In large rivers, human-constructed impoundments and connected backwaters may facilitate nitrogen removal; however, the capacity of these features is poorly quantified and incompletely incorporated into model frameworks. Using a high-resolution and spatially intensive sampling technique, we assessed the contribution of individual navigation pools, as well as impounded open waters and backwater wetlands within them, to overall nitrate retention by mapping the entire length (1370 km) of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) main channel. Based on this single spatial survey of water chemistry, the river appeared to act primarily as a passive nitrate transporter, retaining only 12.5% of the incoming load, most of which occurred in the upper 150 km of the river, which includes the largest and only naturally impounded reach of the river. Although reservoirs typically are nitrogen sinks, our data indicate that UMR dams do not impede river flows to the extent necessary to promote substantial changes in water residence times and subsequent nitrogen removal. Backwaters routinely had lower nitrate concentrations than the main channel, but their limited hydrologic connectivity to the through-flowing river channel constrained their influence on downstream export. As a whole, the UMR did not remove a substantial proportion of its nitrate load despite optimal N removal conditions, numerous impoundments, and the presence of extensive backwater habitats. These results suggest that efforts to reduce delivery of nitrogen to the Gulf of Mexico should emphasize mitigation strategies that target upland nutrient sources rather than relying on removal within the Mississippi River.

The Mississippi River drainage basin includes the Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and Arkansas rivers. These rivers drain areas with different physiography, population centers, and land use, with each contributing a different suites of metals and wastewater contaminants that can affect water quality. In July 2012, we determined 18 elements (Be, Rb, Sr, Cd, Cs, Ba, Tl, Pb, Mg, Al, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the five major tributaries and in the Upper Mississippi River. The following summer, we determined both trace elements and 25 trace organic compounds at 10 sites in a longitudinal study of the main stem of the Mississippi River from Grafton, Illinois to Natchez, Mississippi. We detected wastewater contaminants, including pharmaceuticals and endocrine disrupting compounds, throughout the river system, with the highest concentrations occurring near urban centers (St. Louis and Memphis). Concentrations were highest for atrazine (673ngL-1), DEET (540ngL-1), TCPP (231ngL-1), and caffeine (202ngL-1). The Illinois, Missouri, and Yazoo rivers, which drain areas with intense agriculture, had relatively high concentrations of Chl-a and atrazine. However, the Ohio River delivered higher loads of contaminants to the Mississippi River, including an estimated 177kgday-1 of atrazine, due to higher flow volumes. Concentrations of heavy metals (Ni, V, Co, Cu, Cd, and Zn) were relatively high in the Illinois River and low in the Ohio River, although dissolved metal concentrations were below US EPA maximum contaminant levels for surface water. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the rivers can be distinguished based on elemental and contaminant profiles.