Object oriented expert system estimates line ampacity

Winter storms making landfall in western North America can generate heavy precipitation and other significant weather, leading to floods, landslides, and other hazards that cause significant damage and loss of life. To help alleviate these negative impacts, the California Land-falling Jets (CALJET) and Pacific Land-falling Jets (PACJET) experiments took extra meteorological observations in the coastal region to investigate key research questions and aid operational West Coast 0–48-h weather forecasting. This article presents results from a study of how information provided by CALJET and PACJET was used by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and forecast users. The primary study methodology was analysis of qualitative data collected from observations of forecasters and from interviews with NWS personnel, CALJET–PACJET researchers, and forecast users. The article begins by documenting and discussing the many types of information that NWS forecasters combine to generate forecasts. Within this context, the article describes how forecasters used CALJET–PACJET observations to fill in key observational gaps. It then discusses researcher–forecaster interactions and examines how weather forecast information is used in emergency management decision making. The results elucidate the important role that forecasters play in integrating meteorological information and translating forecasts for users. More generally, the article illustrates how CALJET and PACJET benefited forecasts and society in real time, and it can inform future efforts to improve human-generated weather forecasts and future studies of the use and value of meteorological information.

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

There are few tasks that managers dread as much as employee discipline. Except for cases in which the offense is severe enough to warrant termination, a manager must continue to interact daily with the employee after a punishment has been imposed. When the employee must be fired, the manager often fears that a lawsuit may not be far behind. Thus, when faced with the need to discipline an employee, supervisors might welcome help in figuring out what to do. That is the purpose of the computer expert system called the Supervisor Assistance System, created by the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles (hereafter referred to as the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles). With the Supervisor Assistance System, a supervisor can first consult with the computer to determine if the employee's offense is actionable under departmental rules. If it is, the supervisor responds to a series of questions about the employee and the details of the offense. The computer then generates one or more recommendations for suggested actions to discipline the employee, along with supportive information from personnel rules. An expert system--one application of artificial intelligence--is a computerized decision-making software that structures expertise in a specific area and emulates human decision-making. The software helps users make a logical decision given its knowledge base drawn from laws, regulations, and human expertise.(1) Public agencies have used expert systems for over a decade, and they are becoming more common for a wide variety of purposes (Leonard-Barton and Sviokla, 1988; Martin, 1991). Social service departments use expert systems to determine eligibility for food stamps or refugee assistance, law enforcement units access solved and unsolved burglary cases through a computerized network to get a profile of possible perpetrators of an unsolved crime, and water testing laboratories apply for state license through an expert system. Although expert systems began as stand-alone computer programs, large public agencies are integrating their expert systems into their information data bases, and thus users may not even recognize their expert system as such (Hedberg, 1995). Most studies of public sector expert systems conclude that their promise is great, as they offer users significant potential benefits: increased productivity, improved service delivery effectiveness, and better problem anticipation (Hadden, 1989; McGowan and Lombardo, 1986; Shangraw, 1987). However, such systems have proven difficult to implement and institutionalize (Hadden, 1989, 204; Hauser and Hebert, 1992; Rubin, 1986). Few empirical studies of expert system implementation have been undertaken to assess what determines the extent to which public-sector decision makers will use an expert system initiated within their organization.(2) This article develops a model of the determinants of the degree to which managers utilize an expert system, and tests the model by examining how managers in the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles react to their expert system. The results offer lessons on how to implement an expert system in an agency so that the organization can achieve the benefits of computer technology. The Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles Supervisor Assistance System The Florida Department of Motor Vehicles developed the Supervisor Assistance System to provide consultations for its Supervisors on handling some 45 different employee offenses that can result in disciplinary actions.(3) (See Appendix 1 for a list of all offenses.) For any type of offense, the Supervisor Assistance System asks questions about the incident under investigation as well as other related information, such as the employee's prior disciplinary record and work history. (As an illustration, Appendix 2 presents the specific questions that the system asks a supervisor for the offense absent without authorized leave. …

Effective internal risk and crisis communication can improve organizational functioning, which ultimately can improve community resilience to crises. However, little is known about communicative behaviors associated with effective internal risk and crisis communication. Microboundary spanning theory provides a fruitful framework for examining organizations’ internal risk and crisis communication. While most microboundary spanning work examines corporate communicative behaviors, our study extends this perspective by applying it to a non-corporate context. Specifically, this study explores U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters’ communicative behaviors through 32 in-depth face-to-face interviews. Findings reveal that NWS forecasters engage in megaphoning and scouting with organizational partners and community members. These communicative behaviors are strategic and spontaneous to mitigate the impact of threats on communities. Negative megaphoning seems to contribute to organizational partners’ trust in the NWS, and trust appears to be an integral factor in the success of positive megaphoning. Findings also uncover the need for additional cross-office information seeking. Ultimately, both megaphoning and scouting enhance the NWS’s capacity to save lives during severe weather.

Floods Continue to Disrupt Barge TrafficOn-going highwater conditions continue to disrupt barge traffic on most of the inland waterways.On the Upper Mississippi River there are multiple lock closures.As of May 30, all traffic through St Louis is stopped, as the Mississippi River gauge there was 42.4 feet and rising.The Coast Guard stops all traffic at St. Louis when the river gauge exceeds 38 feet.The National Weather Service's forecast doesn't show the river levels dropping below 38 feet until mid-June.Barge traffic is also stopped on the Lower Illinois River and much of the Arkansas River.The Ohio River and the Lower Mississippi River are open but traffic is delayed by high water conditions.The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports saturated soil levels throughout the Mississippi River Valley Basin are at 25-year highs.Additional rain, coupled with the saturated soils, may bring faster runoff and rapid jumps in river stages. Grain Inspections Down Slightly but Corn ReboundsFor the week ending May 23, total inspections of grain (corn, wheat, and soybeans) for export from all major U.S. export regions reached 2.16 million metric tons (mmt).This amount signifies a 3 percent decrease from the previous week, a 22 percent drop from last year, and a 2 percent decrease from the 3-year average.Although inspections of corn and soybeans increased 31 and 7 percent, respectively, from week to week, the increases could not offset the 41 percent drop in inspections of wheat.Compared to the previous week, grain inspections decreased 3 percent in the Mississippi Gulf and 5 percent in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Ocean Freight Rates Ticked Up Slightly for Two Consecutive WeeksOcean freight rates for shipping bulk grains rose for two consecutive weeks, but they are still below the levels seen at the beginning of the year, and relatively the same as the same period last year.As of May 23, the rate for shipping a metric ton (mt) of grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan was $43.50.This is a 2 percent increase since the last 2 weeks, but 7 percent less than the beginning of the year, and unchanged from the same period last year.The rate from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $24.00 per mt.This is a 4 percent increase since the last 2 weeks, but 4 percent less than the beginning of the year, and 1 percent less than the same period last year.According to the May 23 Transportation and Export report by O'Neil Commodity Consulting, rates are expected to continue rise gradually as we move into the fourth quarter.However, the direction of the rates could be impacted by the outcome of the current tariff and trade turmoil. Snapshots by Sector Export SalesFor the week ending May 16, unshipped balances of wheat, corn, and soybeans totaled 24 mmt.This indicates a 19 percent decrease in outstanding sales, compared to the same time last year.Net weekly wheat export sales were .048mmt, down 58 percent from the previous week.Net corn export sales totaled .442mmt, down 20 percent from the previous week.Net soybean export sales totaled .536mmt, up 45 percent from the past week.Rail U.S. Class I railroads originated 23,194 grain carloads for the week ending May 18.This is 4 percent lower than the previous week, up 4 percent from last year, and 6 percent above the 3-year average.Average June shuttle secondary railcar bids/offers (per car) were $22 below tariff for the week ending May 23.This is $136 above last week and $322 lower than last year.There were no non-shuttle bids/offers this week. BargeFor the week ending May 25, barge grain movements totaled 542,150 tons.This is 47 percent more than the previous week and 27 percent lower than the same period last year.For the week ending May 25, 324 grain barges moved down river.This is 114 more barges than the previous week.There were 432 grain barges unloaded in New Orleans.This is 16 percent lower than the previous week. OceanFor the week ending May 23, 36 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf.This is 16 percent more than the same period last year.Forty-two vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days.This is 11 percent more than the same period last year.As of May 23, the rate for shipping a metric ton (mt) of grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan was $43.50.This is 1 percent more than the previous week.The rate from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $24.00 per mt, a 2 percent increase from the previous week. FuelFor the week ending May 27, the U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased 1.2 cents, from the previous week, to $3.151 per gallon.This price is 13.7 cents below the same week last year.

The ability to meet the demand for electricity in an electrical power system depends not only on subsystems of generation, transmission and distribution, but also the ability to supply the primary energy sources such as natural gas, oil and coal, since the effects of a contingency in some of the subsystems, including supply networks can propagate and affect the operation of the system in terms of availability and price. Traditionally, the operation of electrical power systems has been developed by omitting supply energy aspects and the use of financial instruments as part of a trade policy. In this work, a comprehensive model, that includes fuels transportation networks, fuel storage and units' maintenance program, able to solve large-scale systems, under a centralized decision-making is developed. The objective is to assess the operation and acquisition of take-or-pay contracts, contracts for differences, and Swaps contracts in the economic operation of electrical power systems. Additionally, generating units CO2 emission constraints are relaxed through the transference of emissions bonuses.

This study examined the effect of artificial intelligence on the quality of audit practice in Nigeria. Specifically, examined how expert systems, machine learning, and intelligent agents affect audit quality in Nigeria. The study employed a survey research design. The population of this study comprised 178 practicing accounting firms in Nigeria with the application of artificial intelligence. A sample size of 125 was selected using the purposive sampling technique. Data was obtained from primary sources using a well-structured questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and OLS regression analysis. The result of the study indicated that expert systems, machine learning, and intelligent agents exhibited a significant positive relationship to audit quality in Nigeria. Thus, the study concluded that the application of artificial intelligence positively influences the quality of auditors’ reports. With the positive impact made by artificial intelligence, in the coming decades, intelligent systems will take over more and more decision-making tasks from humans. The study recommended constant training of accountants and audit personnel on the use of AI techniques for the improvement of audit quality. Audit firms in Nigeria should invest in machine learning tools to further improve audit quality in the country. Also, the use of intelligent agents that assist in the classification of detecting objects into different categories should be increased among audit firms in Nigeria. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, Machine Learning, Intelligent Agents, Audit Quality. JEL Classification: M42, M49, C451. Journal Reference Format: Dagunduro, M.E., Falana, G.A., Adewara, Y.M. & Busayo, T.O. (2023): Application of Artificial Intelligence and Audit Quality in Nigeria. Humanities, Management, Arts, Education & the Social Sciences Journal. Vol. 11. No. 1, Pp 39-56. www.isteams.net/humanitiesjournal . dx.doi.org/10.22624/AIMS/HUMANITIES/V11N1P4

The authors review and categorize the research in applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems (ES) in new product development (NPD) activities. A brief overview of NPD process and AI is presented. This is followed by a literature survey in regard to AI and ES applications in NPD, which revealed twenty four articles (twenty two applications) in the 1990–1997 period. The applications are categorized into five areas: expert decision support systems for NPD project evaluation, knowledge-based systems (KBS) for product and process design, KBS for QFD, AI support for conceptual design and AI support for group decision making in concurrent engineering. Brief review of each application is provided. The articles are also grouped by NPD stages and seven NPD core elements (competencies and abilities). Further research areas are pointed out.

In this article, we review a number of pros and cons, including the meaning and application of artificial intelligence. We also considered the latest technological developments in the real world and discussed the application of AI in the fields of heavy industry, gaming, aviation, weather forecasting and expert systems, focusing on expert systems. Specialty applications for AI include expert systems, speech recognition, and machine vision. AI can be classified as weak or strong. Weak AI (also known as Narrow AI) is an AI system designed and trained for specific tasks. Virtual personal assistants (such as Apple's Siri) are weak AI. Powerful AI, also known as artificial intelligence, is an AI system with a wide range of human cognitive capabilities. When performing unfamiliar tasks, powerful AI systems can find solutions without manual intervention. The artificial intelligence that makes computers behave like humans is human-like, fashion-like, and humans spend much less time. Therefore, it is called artificial intelligence. This article concludes by analyzing the future potential of artificial intelligence.

National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters across the west coast of the United States often deal with cool season hail showers that produce hazardous driving conditions. These small hail events, with diameters averaging 5.8 mm, occur with cold upper troughs that support weak instability favorable for low-topped convection and reflectivity values averaging 48 dBZ. The public generally assumes that heavy snow is common across west coast mountains, while heavy rain prevails near sea level. However, motorists can be caught offguard when wet, relatively warm low elevation roadways suddenly transition to icy hail-covered conditions. Thus, west coast small hail events represent an opportunity for the NWS to provide tailored messaging that can modify public perceptions and optimize outcomes. This research examines environments supportive of accumulating small hail over the western United States during the period 2008–2018, and supplements the environmental analysis with a summary of enhanced impact-based decision support techniques used to alert NWS partners and the general public.

In recent years, Japan has rapidly extended its use of electricity obtained via photovoltaic (PV) generation. When the proportion of PV in the generation mix was small, its unpredictable output fluctuations had little effect on the supply and demand operation. However, as the role of PV in grid supply grows, predicting these fluctuations becomes increasingly necessary to ensure stable and economical operation of the electric power system. In this study, we discuss the current approaches of estimating and forecasting the PV output. © 2018 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Bare-bones languages serve small systems with ease: Cushmann, R HEDN Vol 25 No 16 (5 September 1980) pp 171–177

One of the goals of the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) was to implement a computer program to automatically monitor aviation terminal forecasts at National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices. Such a program has now been developed. The program can be initiated either automatically at predefined times or by the forecaster at any time. Once initiated, the program compares the information in the latest terminal forecast and surface airway observation at each designated terminal to a set of amendment and alert criteria. It then notifies the forecaster via an audio or visual alarm if any terminal forecast needs amending, or may need amending in the near future, due to changing weather conditions. The program successfully underwent extensive operational field tests at four National Weather Service forecast offices during 1983. Analysis of the test results showed that, overall, the program performed very well and was found to be useful by the forecasters. In early 1984, the program was issued to each of the National Weather Service regional headquarters for use by the individual field offices. In response to evaluations provided by the forecasters during the field tests, an improved program was developed and is being tested at several forecast offices.

Electrical Engineering in JapanVolume 109, Issue 6 p. 17-27 Article On-line P-Q decoupled preventive control considering the operating cost Hiroyuki Kita, Hiroyuki Kita Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Hiroyuki Kita obtained a Master's degree in 1988 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University. He is presently in the doctoral program at the University. He is engaged in research on analysis and control of electric power systems.Search for more papers by this authorEiichi Tanaka, Eiichi Tanaka Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Eiichi Tanaka obtained a Master's degree in 1977 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University and in April of the same year became a Research Associate in the Department of Electrical Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering. He is engaged mainly in research on the operation and control of electric power systems. He is a member of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers.Search for more papers by this authorJun Hasegawa, Jun Hasegawa Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Jun Hasegawa obtained a Dr. of Eng. degree in 1971 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University, and in April of the same year became a Lecturer in the Department of Electrical Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering. In 1985, he became a Professor at Hokkaido Univ. He is engaged mainly in research on the operation, planning, control, analysis of electric power systems, and energy storage systems. He is a member of IEEE, etc.Search for more papers by this author Hiroyuki Kita, Hiroyuki Kita Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Hiroyuki Kita obtained a Master's degree in 1988 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University. He is presently in the doctoral program at the University. He is engaged in research on analysis and control of electric power systems.Search for more papers by this authorEiichi Tanaka, Eiichi Tanaka Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Eiichi Tanaka obtained a Master's degree in 1977 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University and in April of the same year became a Research Associate in the Department of Electrical Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering. He is engaged mainly in research on the operation and control of electric power systems. He is a member of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers.Search for more papers by this authorJun Hasegawa, Jun Hasegawa Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University Jun Hasegawa obtained a Dr. of Eng. degree in 1971 in Electrical Engineering from the Engineering Research Division of Hokkaido University, and in April of the same year became a Lecturer in the Department of Electrical Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering. In 1985, he became a Professor at Hokkaido Univ. He is engaged mainly in research on the operation, planning, control, analysis of electric power systems, and energy storage systems. He is a member of IEEE, etc.Search for more papers by this author First published: November/December 1989 https://doi.org/10.1002/eej.4391090603 AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Volume109, Issue6November/December 1989Pages 17-27 RelatedInformation

Every day, the U.S. electricity-generating industry decides how to meet the electricity demand anticipated over the next 24 h. Various generating units are available to meet the demand, and each unit may have its own production lead time, start-up cost, and production cost. Total costs can be minimized if electricity demand is accurately forecast. Accurate demand forecasts, in turn, depend on accurate temperature forecasts. This paper estimates the cost savings (i.e., benefits) attributable to temperature forecasts used by the U.S. electricity-generation industry. It does this by establishing the relationship between the quality of temperature forecasts and the quality of electricity demand forecasts at six sites around the United States. It then draws on earlier work by Hobbs et al. on the relationship between the quality of demand forecasts and production costs to estimate the percentage of cost savings from different temperature forecasts. Finally, these cost savings are extrapolated to estimate the total benefits, and incremental benefits, for the United States as a whole. The total benefits of U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts are estimated to be $166 million. The additional benefits potentially obtainable from a perfect temperature forecast are $75 million per year. It is estimated that an incremental 1% improvement in the forecast quality (from the current NWS forecast) would be worth an additional $1.4 million per year. These numbers do not include other possible benefits of forecasts to the electricity industry, such as those from the improved scheduling of plant maintenance.