How Magic a Bullet Is Machine Learning for Credit Analysis? An Exploration with FinTech Lending Data

In the last two decades, machine learning (ML) methods have been widely used in digital soil mapping (DSM), but the regression kriging (RK) model which combines the advantages of the ML and kriging methods has rarely been used in DSM. In addition, due to the limitation of a single-model structure, many ML methods have poor prediction accuracy in undulating terrain areas. In this study, we collected the SOC content of 115 soil samples in a hilly farming area with continuous undulating terrain. According to the theory of soil-forming factors in pedogenesis, we selected 10 topographic indices, 7 vegetation indices, and 2 soil indices as environmental covariates, and according to the law of geographical similarity, we used ML and RK methods to mine the relationship between SOC and environmental covariates to predict the SOC content. Four ensemble models-random forest (RF), Cubist, stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs)-were used to fit the trend of SOC content, and the simple kriging (SK) method was used to interpolate the residuals of the ensemble models, and then the SOC and residual were superimposed to obtain the RK prediction result. Moreover, the 115 samples were divided into calibration and validation sets at a ratio of 80%, and the tenfold cross-validation method was used to fit the optimal parameters of the model. From the results of four ensemble models: RF performed best in the calibration set (R2c = 0.834) but poorly in the validation set (R2v = 0.362); Cubist had good accuracy and stability in both the calibration and validation sets (R2c = 0.693 and R2v = 0.445); SGB performed poorly (R2c = 0.430 and R2v = 0.336); and BRNN had the lowest accuracy (R2c = 0.323 and R2v = 0.282). The results showed that the R2 of the four RK models in the validation set were 0.718, 0.674, 0.724, and 0.625, respectively. Compared with the ensemble models without superimposed residuals, the prediction accuracy was improved by 0.356, 0.229, 0.388, and 0.343, respectively. In conclusion, Cubist has high prediction accuracy and generalization ability in areas with complex topography, and the RK model can make full use of trends and spatial structural factors that are not easy to mine by ML models, which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. This provides a reference for soil survey and digital mapping in complex terrain areas.

Parameter importance assessment improves efficacy of machine learning methods for predicting snow avalanche sites in Leh-Manali Highway, India

Machine learning guided design of functional materials with targeted properties

The urine albumin–creatinine ratio (uACR) is a warning for the deterioration of renal function in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The early detection of ACR has become an important issue. Multiple linear regression (MLR) has traditionally been used to explore the relationships between risk factors and endpoints. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been widely applied in medicine. In the present study, four ML methods were used to predict the uACR in a T2D cohort. We hypothesized that (1) ML outperforms traditional MLR and (2) different ranks of the importance of the risk factors will be obtained. A total of 1147 patients with T2D were followed up for four years. MLR, classification and regression tree, random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, and eXtreme gradient boosting methods were used. Our findings show that the prediction errors of the ML methods are smaller than those of MLR, which indicates that ML is more accurate. The first six most important factors were baseline creatinine level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose. In conclusion, ML might be more accurate in predicting uACR in a T2D cohort than the traditional MLR, and the baseline creatinine level is the most important predictor, which is followed by systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin, and fasting plasma glucose in Chinese patients with T2D.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then, the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) methods in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML applications in wildfire science and management. Our overall objective is to improve awareness of ML methods among wildfire researchers and managers, as well as illustrate the diverse and challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to ML data scientists. To that end, we first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date and then review the use of ML in wildfire science as broadly categorized into six problem domains, including (i) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; (ii) fire weather and climate change; (iii) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; (iv) fire behavior prediction; (v) fire effects; and (vi) fire management. Furthermore, we discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches relating to data size, computational requirements, generalizability, and interpretability, as well as identify opportunities for future advances in the science and management of wildfires within a data science context. In total, to the end of 2019, we identified 300 relevant publications in which the most frequently used ML methods across problem domains included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. As such, there exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods — including deep learning and agent-based learning — in the wildfire sciences, especially in instances involving very large multivariate datasets. We must recognize, however, that despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods such as deep learning requires a dedicated and sophisticated knowledge of their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management communities play an active role in providing relevant, high-quality, and freely available wildfire data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

A dose deposition matrix (DDM) prediction method using several voxel features and a machine learning (ML) approach is proposed for plan optimization in radiation therapy. Head and lung cases with the inhomogeneous medium are used as training and testing data. The prediction model is a cascade forward backprop neural network where the input is the features of the voxel, including 1) voxel to body surface distance along the beamlet axis, 2) voxel to beamlet axis distance, 3) voxel density, 4) heterogeneity corrected voxel to body surface distance, 5) heterogeneity corrected voxel to beamlet axis, and (6) the dose of voxel obtained from the pencil beam (PB) algorithm. The output is the predicted voxel dose corresponding to a beamlet. The predicted DDM was used for plan optimization (ML method) and compared with the dose of MC-based plan optimization (MC method) and the dose of pencil beam-based plan optimization (PB method). The mean absolute error (MAE) value was calculated for full volume relative to the dose of the MC method to evaluate the overall dose performance of the final plan. For patient with head tumor, the ML method achieves MAE value 0.49 × 10-4 and PB has MAE 1.86 × 10-4. For patient with lung tumor, the ML method has MAE 1.42 × 10-4 and PB has MAE 3.72 × 10-4. The maximum percentage difference in PTV dose coverage (D98) between ML and MC methods is no more than 1.2% for patient with head tumor, while the difference is larger than 10% using the PB method. For patient with lung tumor, the maximum percentage difference in PTV dose coverage (D98) between ML and MC methods is no more than 2.1%, while the difference is larger than 16% using the PB method. In this work, a reliable DDM prediction method is established for plan optimization by applying several voxel features and the ML approach. The results show that the ML method based on voxel features can obtain plans comparable to the MC method and is better than the PB method in achieving accurate dose to the patient, which is helpful for rapid plan optimization and accurate dose calculation. Establishment of a new machine learning method based on the relationship between the voxel and beamlet features for dose deposition matrix prediction in radiation therapy.

Injection molding is one of the major processes applied for production of thermoplastic products. Thermoplastic materials are used in manufacturing of dozens of products seen in everyday life, such as: car bumpers, children toys, bodies of electronic devices, etc. At the same time, plastic pollution is a well-known problem. One of the sources of this pollution is plastic scrap, which might appear because of using faulty process parameters during production process. To decrease amount of scrap, injection molding needs to include better process and quality control routines. Quality of a product can be defined in different ways and product dimensions can be one of criteria for accepting or declining a product. The following paper applies machine learning (ML) methods to predict width and thickness of the injection molded HDPE dogbone specimens with 4 mm thickness based on process parameter values used to produce the parts. Data used for creation of regression models with help of ML methods was acquired during an experiment, which included 160 machine runs during which 47 machine and process parameters were logged. Application of ML methods for training of product dimensions prediction models will increase overall intelligence level of injection molding machines and their compliance with Industry 4.0 standards. Beforehand prediction of product’s dimensions will allow to decrease amount of scrap and energy consumption. This will contribute to more environmentally conscious use of thermoplastic materials and more sustainable design of manufacturing systems.

Developing Theory Using Machine Learning Methods

The aim of this review is to present an up-to-date overview of the application of machine learning methods in heart failure including diagnosis, classification, readmissions and medication adherence. Recent studies have shown that the application of machine learning techniques may have the potential to improve heart failure outcomes and management, including cost savings by improving existing diagnostic and treatment support systems. Recently developed deep learning methods are expected to yield even better performance than traditional machine learning techniques in performing complex tasks by learning the intricate patterns hidden in big medical data. The review summarizes the recent developments in the application of machine and deep learning methods in heart failure management.

The provided document is a research paper on 3D animation simulation based on machine learning, focusing on the application of machine learning in three-dimensional human animation technology. The paper discusses the importance of virtual reality technology based on computer three-dimensional animation in various fields such as film production, game development, sports simulation, and simulated training. The authors emphasize the significance of three-dimensional human animation technology in portraying subtle changes in human movement and simulating human emotions contained in movement. The paper also explores the application of machine learning methods in processing human body movement data and synthesizing new realistic movement sequences. Various machine learning theories and methods, including regression, function approximation, dimension reduction, classification, clustering, and decision-making, are discussed in relation to their application in three-dimensional human animation technology. The document also reviews the research status of human body movement synthesis technology at home and abroad, highlighting the contributions of various researchers in the field. The authors conclude that machine learning methods have unique advantages in processing human body movement data and can significantly improve the utilization rate of movement capture samples, thereby reducing the cost and time cycle of three-dimensional human animation production..

Integrated phenology and climate in rice yields prediction using machine learning methods

Background and Objectives: The use of a standard chest X-ray has become a routine diagnostic method in daily clinical practice for the evaluation of a wide range of lung diseases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, significant challenges occurred in achieving accurate diagnostics and selecting appropriate therapies for patients with different symptoms of diseases. The aim was to cross-correlate radiological findings and clinical data and to develop models to predict hospitalization status, while evaluating the prognostic importance of the different variables. Materials and Methods: A set of variables including Brixia score, and clinical data: gender, age, hypertension, and diabetes was used to explore their association with patient hospitalization. Four different machine learning (ML) methods (Decision Tree-DT, Logistic Regression-LR, Random Forest-RF and Support Vector Machine-SVM) were used for hospitalization outcome prediction. Results: SVM appeared to be with the highest AUC (0.851), with low sensitivity, while DT was the most balanced in the context of AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Brixia score appeared to be the most important predictor for hospitalization within the group of predictors (gender, age, hypertension and diabetes). Conclusions: All four ML models that used in this study provided "good" prediction capabilities (AUC > 0.8), with the exception of SVM that had low sensitivity, emphasizing Brixia score as the strongest predictor of hospitalization. Application of ML methods have considerable potential in various aspects of medical clinical practice and future studies could potentially indicate the importance of applying the ML model in more precise diagnosis, therapy and prognosis of the patient's clinical condition.

Machine learning (ML) methods are attracting considerable attention among academics in the field of finance. However, it is commonly believed that ML has not transformed the asset management industry to the same extent as other sectors. This survey focuses on the ML methods and empirical results available in the literature that matter most for active portfolio management. ML has asset management applications for signal generation, portfolio construction, and trade execution, and promising findings have been reported. Reinforcement learning (RL), in particular, is expected to play a more significant role in the industry. Nevertheless, the performance of a sample of active exchange-traded funds (ETF) that use ML in their investments tends to be mixed. Overall, ML techniques show great promise for active portfolio management, but investors should be cautioned against their main potential pitfalls. 
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P125. Development of a novel ensemble machine learning algorithm for prediction of complications and readmission after anterior cervical spinal fusion

Bees are the major pollinators of agricultural crops and due to numerous factors, the globalbee population is declining drastically. Identification and extraction of numerous body features of bees can allow us to understand the population dynamics and bee-hive health of an agricultural area. Morphological key-based bee studies are well established procedures for these tasks, which are time consuming and need critical knowledge about different bees species. Recently, numerous machine learning (ML) methods have been implemented on numerous insect species, but there is a scarcity of deep learning models for morphological studies of bees. In our current study, we applied ML methods to extract variants of class activation maps that visually display distinguishing morphological features of bees. We sourced an image data set of eleven different species of Bumblebee (Bombus sp.), Honey bee (Apis sp.) and Carpenter bee (Xylocopa sp.) from iNaturalist, curated and fine-tuned against fifteen state-of-the-art image classification models. An accuracy of 93.66% was obtained with a ResNest101e model, and including data augmentation improves the performance to the highest accuracy of 94.27%. We also compared the ML extracted visual features with traditional morphological key-based features and showed existing unsupervised ML models are error prone in numerous instances due to their focus on overall features, whereas manual methods benefited by focusing only on the main discriminating body features, showing a potential scope of improvement the existing models. Overall, our model will be implicated in bee-morphology based tasks of apiculture, such as distinguishing between healthy and parasitic bees, and classification tasks of similar insect species.