Incremental Deep-Learning for Continuous Load Prediction in Energy Management Systems

Wind speed is a crucial parameter alongside coastal areas, especially Indonesia. Above average wind speed can cause harmful effects on human activities. This study uses wind speed data from Berakit Bay, Bintan Island is a potential location for coastal community settlement, fisheries, and tourist activities. The wind parameter then predicted using the Long Short-Term Memory or LSTM algorithm. This algorithm is able to study long-term dependencies by converting simple nervous system designs into specialized blocks containing cells. It is suitable to be applied to long-term wind predictions where the wind speed at this time is very influential with the wind speed in the future. In preparing the LSTM, the data preprocessing and the architecture used will determine the prediction results. In this study, four different architectures were made in order to determine the most optimal architecture. The results show that the LSTM architecture is able to obtain a relatively good RMSE value of 1.87 and an accuracy of 39.40% with the use of two LSTM layers, 256 units in the first layer and 128 in the second layer. The LSTM algorithm in predicting wind can also be applied to other areas in Indonesia.

The electrical equipment of offshore oil support ships operates in harsh marine environments with high failure rates, posing challenges to the development of preventive maintenance strategies. To address this issue, this article proposes an intelligent platform based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm to optimize preventive maintenance strategies for electrical equipment. Firstly, operational data of ship electrical equipment is collected, and data preprocessing and key feature extraction are carried out; subsequently, a prediction model based on LSTM is constructed to make real-time predictions on the health status of the equipment; then, the predictive model is integrated into the intelligent platform to achieve real-time monitoring of device status and dynamic optimization of maintenance strategies. The experimental results show that the LSTM based prediction model outperforms support vector regression (SVR) and random forest methods in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness. The average monthly failure rate of the equipment is 0.67 times, and the maintenance cost for 12 months is only $4750. In the above data conclusions, the intelligent platform based on LSTM algorithm can significantly improve the effectiveness of preventive maintenance strategies for marine oil support ship electrical equipment, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method.

Recurring wildfires pose a critical global issue as they undermine social and economic stability and jeopardize human lives. To effectively manage disasters and bolster community resilience, the development of wildfire susceptibility maps (WFSMs) has emerged as a crucial undertaking in recent years. In this research endeavor, two deep learning algorithms were leveraged to generate WFSMs using two distinct remote sensing datasets. Specifically, the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat-8 images were utilized to monitor wildfires that transpired during the year 2021. To develop an effective WFSM, two datasets were created by incorporating 599 wildfire locations with Landsat-8 images and 232 sites with MODIS images, as well as twelve factors influencing wildfires. Deep learning algorithms, namely the long short-term memory (LSTM) and recurrent neural network (RNN), were utilized to model wildfire susceptibility using the two datasets. Subsequently, four WFSMs were generated using the LSTM (MODIS), LSTM (Landsat-8), RNN (MODIS), and RNN (Landsat-8) algorithms. The evaluation of the WFSMs was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) index. The results revealed that the RNN (MODIS) (AUC = 0.971), RNN (Landsat-8) (AUC = 0.966), LSTM (MODIS) (AUC = 0.964), and LSTM (Landsat-8) (AUC = 0.941) algorithms demonstrated the highest modeling accuracy, respectively. Moreover, the Gini index was employed to assess the impact of the twelve factors on wildfires in the study area. The results of the random forest (RF) algorithm indicated that temperature, wind speed, slope, and topographic wetness index (TWI) parameters had a significant effect on wildfires in the study region. These findings are instrumental in facilitating efficient wildfire management and enhancing community resilience against the detrimental effects of wildfires.

System or equipment prognosis and health management (PHM) has become more important than ever as modern industry develop. Normally PHM requires abundant prior information or statistic features to predict future system states, however an expert or accurate physical model is usually unavailable in practice. As an important trend of deep neural network algorithms, long short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) has been proven significantly practical and accurate in machine learning problems such as natural language processing (NLP) and time serial prediction. In this paper a novel fault prognosis approach using LSTM based on vibration signal of rotating machinery is presented. It is proven that the capacity of machinery performance prediction with LSTM algorithm is improved with limited data available in a relatively short time period. The proposed LSTM approach, compared with other prognosis methods, gives a successful outcomes that may enhance the ability of health management and machine condition monitoring. It is proven that the proposed approach is superior and more practical for machine prognosis in complex bearing systems.

Wind waves are natural phenomena primarily generated by the wind. Information about wave height and period is highly crucial in various marine fields such as coastal engineering, fisheries, and maritime transportation. However, accurately predicting wave height remains a challenge due to the stochastic nature of ocean waves themselves. Several approaches to predicting wave height have been developed, including numerical models and machine learning methods, such as the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, which has currently garnered significant attention from researchers. The objective of this research is to develop a forecast model for wind wave height using the LSTM algorithm in Seibu Island Waters, DKI Jakarta. The ERA5 dataset comprises zonal and meridional wind components and significant wave height, along with wind measurement data using the Automatic Weather System (AWS) instrument, are used to train and test to train and test the LSTM model. The research results show that the LSTM model can predict significant wave height effectively. Predictions using the ERA5 significant height dataset are observed to be closer to field data, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 0.1535 m, 0.1181 m, and 37.11% respectively. Thus, the model evaluation results indicate good performance, with relatively low RMSE and MAE values, and a good MAPE value. The highest accuracy in significant wave height prediction is found for forecasts one week (7 days) ahead

Bitcoin's decentralized nature has made it a popular mode of payment for buyers and sellers, but its highly volatile nature poses a challenge for investors. This study aims to predict future Bitcoin prices using a combination of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. The non-stationary nature of Bitcoin prices is addressed using RNN, which is particularly useful for analyzing sequential data.The dataset used in this research is sourced from the Kraken exchange and includes various factors that are believed to influence Bitcoin prices, such as transaction volume, hash rate, and Google search trends. The data is preprocessed and cleaned to ensure accuracy, and then fed into the RNN and LSTM models for training and testing.The study's use of RNN and LSTM algorithms demonstrates the effectiveness of these methods in predicting Bitcoin prices, particularly in the context of sequential data. The results of the study, provide insights into potential future trends in Bitcoin prices and identify key indicators that significantly influence Bitcoin prices. The findings of this research have important implications for investors and traders looking to make informed decisions in the cryptocurrency market, as well as for researchers seeking to improve our understanding of Bitcoin's price dynamics. By predicting future prices, the study provides insights that can mitigate the risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility, making it a more viable investment option.

Accurate prediction of liquid transportation distance in LNG long-distance pipelines is critical for optimizing energy transportation efficiency and ensuring operational safety. However, traditional methods often struggle to capture the nonlinear temporal dependencies and complex flow dynamics inherent in pipeline systems. This paper proposes a novel prediction method based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm to address these challenges. By leveraging historical operational data, including pressure, temperature, flow rate, and pipeline terrain characteristics, the LSTM model is trained to learn spatiotemporal patterns and predict transportation distances under varying conditions. The proposed framework incorporates data preprocessing, feature selection, and hyperparameter optimization to enhance model robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that the LSTM-based method outperforms conventional models in terms of prediction accuracy, achieving a mean absolute error of 0.82 km and a root mean square error of 1.15 km over a 200 km test pipeline segment. The model’s ability to handle long-term dependencies and noisy data highlights its practical applicability for real-time monitoring and decision-making in LNG pipeline management. This study contributes to advancing intelligent solutions for energy infrastructure optimization.

Arctic sea ice and snow affect the energy balance of the global climate system through the radiation budget. Accurate determination of the snow cover over Arctic sea ice is significant for the retrieval of the sea ice thickness (SIT). In this study, we developed a new snow depth retrieval method over Arctic sea ice with a long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning algorithm based on Operation IceBridge (OIB) snow depth data and brightness temperature data of AMSR-2 passive microwave radiometers. We compared climatology products (modified W99 and AWI), altimeter products (Kwok) and microwave radiometer products (Bremen, Neural Network and LSTM). The climatology products and altimeter products are completely independent of the OIB data used for training, while microwave radiometer products are not completely independent of the OIB data. We also compared the SITs retrieved from the above different snow depth products based on Cryosat-2 radar altimeter data. First, the snow depth spatial patterns for all products are in broad agreement, but the temporal evolution patterns are distinct. Snow products of microwave radiometers, such as Bremen, Neural Network and LSTM snow depth products, show thicker snow in early winter with respect to the climatology snow depth products and the altimeter snow depth product, especially in the multiyear ice (MYI) region. In addition, the differences in all snow depth products are relatively large in the early winter and relatively small in spring. Compared with the OIB and IceBird observation data (April 2019), the snow depth retrieved by the LSTM algorithm is better than that retrieved by the other algorithms in terms of accuracy, with a correlation of 0.55 (0.90), a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.06 m (0.05 m) and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.05 m (0.04 m). The spatial pattern and seasonal variation of the SITs retrieved from different snow depths are basically consistent. The total sea ice decreases first and then thickens as the seasons change. Compared with the OIB SIT in April 2019, the SIT retrieved by the LSTM snow depth is superior to that retrieved by the other SIT products in terms of accuracy, with the highest correlation of 0.46, the lowest RMSE of 0.59 m and the lowest MAE of 0.44 m. In general, it is promising to retrieve Arctic snow depth using the LSTM algorithm, but the retrieval of snow depth over MYI still needs to be verified with more measured data, especially in early winter.

To achieve global sustainability goals and meet the urgent demands of carbon neutrality, China is continuously transforming its energy structure. In this process, electric vehicles (EVs) are playing an increasingly important role in energy transition and have become one of the primary user groups in the electricity market. Traditional load prediction algorithms have difficulty in constructing mathematical models for predicting the charging load of electric vehicles, which is characterized by high randomness, high volatility, and high spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, the predicted results often exhibit a certain degree of lag. Therefore, this study approaches the analysis from two perspectives: the overall industrial park and individual charging stations. By analyzing specific load data, the overall framework for the training dataset was established. Additionally, based on the evaluation system proposed in this study and utilizing both Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms, a framework for machine learning-based load prediction methods was constructed to forecast electric vehicle charging loads in industrial parks. Through a case analysis, it was found that the proposed solution for the short-term prediction of the charging load in industrial park electric vehicles can achieve accurate and stable forecasting results. Specifically, in terms of data prediction for normal working days and statutory holidays, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm demonstrated high accuracy, with R2 coefficients of 0.9283 and 0.9154, respectively, indicating the good interpretability of the model. In terms of weekend holiday data prediction, the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm achieved an R2 coefficient of as high as 0.9586, significantly surpassing the LSTM algorithm’s value of 0.9415, demonstrating superior performance.

Forecasting is the process of predicting something in the future based on previous patterns. Forecasting will never be 100% accurate because the future has a problem of uncertainty. However, using the right method can make forecasting have a low error rate value to provide a good forecast for the future. This study aims to determine the effect of increasing the number of hidden layers and neurons on the performance of the long short-term memory (LSTM) forecasting method. LSTM performance measurement is done by root mean square error (RMSE) in various architectural scenarios. The LSTM algorithm is considered capable of handling long-term dependencies on its input and can predict data for a relatively long time. Based on research conducted from all models, the best results were obtained with an RMSE value of 0.699 obtained in model 1 with the number of hidden layers 2 and 64 neurons. Adding the number of hidden layers can significantly affect the RMSE results using neurons 16 and 32 in Model 1.

Simple SummaryForecasting dengue cases often face challenges from (1) time-effectiveness due to time-consuming satellite data downloading and processing, (2) weak spatial representation due to data dependence on administrative unit-based statistics or weather station-based observations, and (3) stagnant accuracy without historical dengue cases. With the advance of the geospatial big data cloud computing in Google Earth Engine and deep learning, this study proposed an efficient framework of dengue prediction at an epidemiological week basis using geospatial big data analysis in Google Earth Engine and Long Short Term Memory modeling. We focused on the dengue epidemics in the Federal District of Brazil during 2007–2019. Based on Google Earth Engine and epidemiological calendar, we computed the weekly composite for each dengue driving factor, and spatially aggregated the pixel values into dengue transmission areas to generate the time series of driving factors. A multi-step-ahead Long Short Term Memory modeling was used, and the time-differenced natural log-transformed dengue cases and the time series of driving factors were considered as outcomes and explantary factors, respectively, with two modeling scenarios (with and without historical cases). The performance is better when historical cases were used, and the 5-weeks-ahead forecast has the best performance.Timely and accurate forecasts of dengue cases are of great importance for guiding disease prevention strategies, but still face challenges from (1) time-effectiveness due to time-consuming satellite data downloading and processing, (2) weak spatial representation capability due to data dependence on administrative unit-based statistics or weather station-based observations, and (3) stagnant accuracy without the application of historical case information. Geospatial big data, cloud computing platforms (e.g., Google Earth Engine, GEE), and emerging deep learning algorithms (e.g., long short term memory, LSTM) provide new opportunities for advancing these efforts. Here, we focused on the dengue epidemics in the urban agglomeration of the Federal District of Brazil (FDB) during 2007–2019. A new framework was proposed using geospatial big data analysis in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and long short term memory (LSTM) modeling for dengue case forecasts over an epidemiological week basis. We first defined a buffer zone around an impervious area as the main area of dengue transmission by considering the impervious area as a human-dominated area and used the maximum distance of the flight range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus as a buffer distance. Those zones were used as units for further attribution analyses of dengue epidemics by aggregating the pixel values into the zones. The near weekly composite of potential driving factors was generated in GEE using the epidemiological weeks during 2007–2019, from the relevant geospatial data with daily or sub-daily temporal resolution. A multi-step-ahead LSTM model was used, and the time-differenced natural log-transformed dengue cases were used as outcomes. Two modeling scenarios (with and without historical dengue cases) were set to examine the potential of historical information on dengue forecasts. The results indicate that the performance was better when historical dengue cases were used and the 5-weeks-ahead forecast had the best performance, and the peak of a large outbreak in 2019 was accurately forecasted. The proposed framework in this study suggests the potential of the GEE platform, the LSTM algorithm, as well as historical information for dengue risk forecasting, which can easily be extensively applied to other regions or globally for timely and practical dengue forecasts.

Software effort estimation (SEE) is an important process for predicting the effort required to develop or maintain software projects. It is considered one of the difficult challenges for software engineering because the more accurate the estimation, the greater the chances of success in developing software projects to complete and deliver them within the specified scheduling and budget. The diversity in software projects led to the use of many techniques to estimate the effort. The main objective of the research is to find the best technique to get the estimated effort as close to the real effort, using Machine learning Algorithms, artificial neural network Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) and the artificial neural network Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (Stacked_LSTM), with six data sets are China, Kitchenham, Kemerer, Cocomo 81, Albrecht, Decharnais, and comparing the performance of the two machine learning algorithms performance, Neuralnet and Lasso from previous research, used the same data sets and using the same evaluation metrics, which are: the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R_Squared. The results demonstrated the superiority of the Stacked _LSTM algorithm by all metrics with the dataset of China, Kemerer and Albrecht, while in the data sets, Descharnais and Kitchenham, the LSTM algorithm outperformed the rest of the methods. While in the Cocomo 81 dataset, Neuralnet algorithm outperformed the rest of the techniques used, but the best rating was obtained. It is for Stacked _LSTM algorithm with China data.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are a powerful scheme for modeling temporal and sequential data need to capture long-term dependencies on datasets and represent them in hidden layers with a powerful model to capture more information from inputs. For modeling long-term dependencies in a dataset, the gating mechanism concept can help RNNs remember and forget previous information. Representing the hidden layers of an RNN with more expressive operations (i.e., tensor products) helps it learn a more complex relationship between the current input and the previous hidden layer information. These ideas can generally improve RNN performances. In this paper, we proposed a novel RNN architecture that combine the concepts of gating mechanism and the tensor product into a single model. By combining these two concepts into a single RNN, our proposed models learn long-term dependencies by modeling with gating units and obtain more expressive and direct interaction between input and hidden layers using a tensor product on 3-dimensional array (tensor) weight parameters. We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) RNN and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) RNN and combine them with a tensor product inside their formulations. Our proposed RNNs, which are called a Long-Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Tensor Network (LSTMRNTN) and Gated Recurrent Unit Recurrent Neural Tensor Network (GRURNTN), are made by combining the LSTM and GRU RNN models with the tensor product. We conducted experiments with our proposed models on word-level and character-level language modeling tasks and revealed that our proposed models significantly improved their performance compared to our baseline models.

The unsteady recovery of oil and gas prices in early 2017 led to an increase in drilling and hydraulic fracturing operations in North America liquid-rich shale plays. The increasing number of producing wells, in addition to re-fractured wells, impose the need for optimizing field development strategies and shale gas supply chain networks that maximize profitability. Moreover, operators must account for undulating natural gas demands both locally and externally in a persistently low oil price environment. In this paper, we adopt supervised machine learning approaches to forecast local natural gas demand as well as guide well re-frac candidature. Both serve as critical inputs for maximizing the net present value of any shale gas field development project. An optimized water management structure is also incorporated in the proposed framework to account for associated produced-water recycling. Considering a shale gas network in the Marcellus play, supply chain optimization was achieved using a mixed integer non-linear programming formulation. The Strategic Planning model relies on at least 4 major efforts including reservoir simulation, which in turn relies on output from a feed forward Neural Network (NN) algorithm. The trained NN algorithm was deemed suitable for recommending re-frac candidates, necessary decision variables for multiphase reservoir simulation. Finally, NPV optimization relied on a four-layer Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network, developed for forecasting local shale gas demand. Both neural network algorithms were scripted using python. 17 non-redundant parameters were mined for 250 wells in the case study. The t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding technique was used to visualize related low dimensional manifolds within the high-dimensional data set, and a NN algorithm was used to obtain probabilities of misclassification. The well-pads in the case study superstructure are modeled using compositional reservoir simulation. Each reservoir model is tuned by history matching production and pressure data for designated producing wells. Alternative field development strategies (including re-fracturing) are then simulated for a 10-year planning horizon to generate gas and water rate decline profiles. Using the LSTM developed, local gas demand is forecasted using data sets created from multivariate time-dependent local and global variables affecting shale gas demand. The LSTM algorithm is derived by convolving some features from the raw data set, with fined-tuned weights, with the objective of minimizing a pre-defined demand error function. The results obtained show that application of this integrated approach can give operators a calculated advantage, preventing erroneous feedback of project profitability but allowing early time decision-making that maximizes shale asset NPV.

Energy is one of the top operating expenses in industries. Following the increased adoption of smart grids in recent years, industries can leverage on its capabilities to design effective energy management schemes for competitive advantage. This paper addresses the challenge of energy management in industries by incorporating the aspects of a smart grid in designing an energy management system (EMS) where demand side management (DSM) is utilized to enable users control their energy usage and minimize costs. A forecasting model for electricity prices and demand is developed using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) - Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). The predicted prices are used in load scheduling to realize potential energy cost savings. The nonpriority loads are scheduled to leverage on low electricity prices during off peak times. The effectiveness of the designed energy management strategy is tested using an IEEE 30 bus system. A suitable operation schedule with committed units for each hour is given for one sample day. Using the test system with 20 loads yielded an annual energy cost saving of $2,961,169.20 and a payback period (PBP) of 4.39 years. Quantifying both the energy and non-energy benefits of investing in an EMS justifies its high investment cost. Long term use of an industrial EMS is likely to yield huge energy and cost savings.