The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)—a summertime band of convection extending from the Amazon southeastward into the southwest Atlantic Ocean—has generated considerable interest in the field of South American meteorology and climatology because of its substantial influence on summer rainfall in Southeast Brazil. It is responsible for the majority of rainfall in Brazil’s most agriculturally productive region, although an overly active SACZ can result in excessive precipitation with landslides in the mountainous regions and widespread flooding, causing major losses to society. The mean position of the SACZ seems to be controlled by the heat source of the Amazon basin, which induces a low-level trough that imports moisture from the Amazon, and, over the ocean, by convergence of moisture evaporated below the South Atlantic anticyclone into the SACZ, with additional influences from the local orography. It is, however, the less understood significant spatial and temporal variations that demand attention and are of potential concern. One important such fluctuation, known as the “South American Seesaw,” is a pronounced out-of-phase relationship between rainfall in the SACZ region and southern South America, which is most apparent on sub-seasonal timescales. Periods in which the SACZ is active tend to correspond to rainfall deficits in the south. The opposite phase, with a weakened SACZ but abundant precipitation over southern South America, is accompanied by a strong northerly low-level jet east of the Andes Cordillera that transports massive amounts of moisture from the Amazon basin southward. The mechanisms controlling the alternation and the activation of either phase are not fully understood but may be related to the phase of midlatitude synoptic wave trains as they impinge on South America. Some of these midlatitude waves that impact the SACZ undoubtedly form in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, but others appear to emanate from the western Pacific tropics, arch southward along an approximate great circle route, and propagate into the vicinity of the SACZ. As such, they may be modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which shows some prediction skill and has been shown to be related to SACZ rainfall. The MJO influence on the SACZ may itself depend on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because a change in the longitude of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) alters both the background basic state and the location of maximum equatorial heating associated with an MJO event. In spite of the plausible ENSO modulation of the MJO impact on the SACZ, the direct influence of ENSO on the SACZ on interannual scales appears to be small. During an El Niño event, when large positive SST anomalies extend into the eastern Pacific and convective heating shifts eastward from its usual position in the western Pacific, there is a tendency for above-average precipitation in southern South America and a strong low-level jet. The concomitant weakening of the SACZ that occurs on short time scales, however, is not observed, resulting in a weak correlation between ENSO and the SACZ. One of the reasons for this lack of relationship may be that there is a tendency for the SACZ precipitation anomalies to change sign over the course of an El Niño summer. Although the representation of the South American Monsoon System in climate models is deficient in many regards, they are able to simulate a SACZ that extends south-eastward from the Amazon region, with a minimum just off shore. The Amazon maximum, however, is about 10º too far east in many models, so that the continental portion of the SACZ is significantly shorter than in nature. The misrepresentation of cloud physics contributes to this long-standing problem, although some improvement can be noted in the latest generation of CMIP models. The influence of Atlantic SSTs on the SACZ remains difficult to quantify. Most results suggest the ocean cools under an active SACZ because of reduced solar radiation, although vertical and horizontal advection in the ocean mixed layer may be of equal importance. The predictive skill of the SACZ in hindcast simulations is near zero on seasonal scales, which is thought to result partly from inaccurate representation of air–sea coupling processes. This notion is reinforced by a similar inability of AMIP models (atmospheric general circulation models forced with observed underlying SSTs) to reproduce precipitation variations in the SACZ region.
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