Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules

We study the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policy follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is borrowing constrained. The optimized fiscal rule is far more aggressive than automatic stabilizers, and stabilizes the income of borrowingconstrained agents, rather than output. The optimized monetary rule features super-inertia and a very low coefficient on inflation, which minimizes real wage volatility. The welfare gains of optimizing the fiscal rule are far larger than the welfare gains of optimizing the monetary rule. The preferred fiscal instruments are government spending and transfers targeted to borrowing-constrained agents

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation with fiscal policy-makers. In particular, strategies involving: (a) a money supply target, (b) tracking European inflation, (c) stabilizing European nominal income, and (d) fixing the exchange rate of the Euro with respect to the Dollar are evaluated and compared with respect to the associated welfare effects. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand side shocks. Nominal income targeting by the ECB has to be regarded as inferior to inflation targeting, while fixing the exchange rate leads to quite satisfactory results in most cases.

The paper uses a two-sector DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities to analyse the stabilising properties of fiscal policy rules in a small open economy in monetary union. The focus is on the potential of budgetary-neutral rules that adjust the composition of government purchases between tradable and non-tradable goods in response to business cycle indicators as a stabilisation tool when fiscal limits are tight. The paper finds that the state-dependent reallocation of government purchases between tradable and non-tradable goods stabilises domestic activity and reduces the welfare costs of economy-wide and sector-specific shocks. Potential welfare gains from such policy rules are higher than welfare gains from standard counter-cyclical fiscal policy rules that adjust the overall level of government purchases. Contrary to standard deficit spending policies, the state-dependent expenditure composition rules avoid the trade-off between, first, counter-cyclical spending and, second, consolidation needs in economic downturns in the presence of explicit or implicit deficit and debt limits.

In this paper, we determine optimal budgetary and monetary policies for Austria using a small macroeconometric model. We use a Keynesian model of the Austrian economy, called FINPOL1, estimated by ordinary least squares, which relates the main objective variables of Austrian economic policies, such as the growth rate of real gross domestic product, the rate of unemployment, the rate of inflation, the balance of payments, and the ratio of the federal budget deficit to GDP, to fiscal and monetary policy instruments, namely expenditures and revenues of the federal budget and money supply. Optimal fiscal and monetary policies are calculated for the model under a quadratic objective function using the algorithm OPTCON for the optimum control of nonlinear stochastic dynamic systems. Several control experiments are performed in order to assess the influence of different kinds of uncertainty on optimal budgetary and monetary policies. Apart from deterministic optimization runs, different assumptions about parameter uncertainties are introduced; the results of these different stochastic optimum control experiments are compared and interpreted.

The paper analyses the stabilising potential of simple fiscal policy rules for a small open economy in monetary union in a 2-region DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. We consider simple fiscal instrument rules for government purchases, transfers, and consumption, labour and capital taxes in analogy to interest rate rules in monetary policy. The paper finds a dichotomy in the welfare effects of fiscal policy for liquidity-constrained and intertemporal optimising households, i.e. policies enhancing the welfare of one group tend to reduce the welfare of the other one. The moderate average welfare gains from optimal policy contrast with potentially large welfare losses from non-optimal policy. Fiscal rules that respond to employment fluctuations may be preferred to fiscal rules responding to indicators of price competitiveness, because optimal policy corresponds more closely to the idea of countercyclical stabilisation in the former case. The simulations also emphasise the crucial impact of the budgetary closure rule on the welfare consequences of fiscal business-cycle stabilisation.

The U.S. appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard in which a version of the Taylor rule constitutes the optimal monetary policy for a given inflation target and a given level of productivity. We augment this model with regime switching in productivity, and calculate the optimal monetary policy rule in the altered environment. We find that in the altered environment, a rule that incorporates leading indicators about regimes significantly outperforms the Taylor rule. We use this result to comment on the new economy events of the 1990s and the stagflation events of the 1970s from the perspective of our model.

This paper characterises the jointly optimal monetary and fiscal stabilisation policy in a new Keynesian model that allows for consumers who lacking access to asset markets consume their disposable income each period. With full asset market participation, the optimal policy relies entirely on the interest rate to stabilise cost-push shocks and government expenditure is not changed. When asset market participation is limited, there is a case for fiscal stabilisation policy. Active use of public spending raises aggregate welfare because it enables a more balanced distribution of the stabilisation burden across asset-holding and non-asset-holding consumers. The optimal response of government expenditure is sensitive to the financing scheme and whether the policymaker has access to a targeted transfer that can directly redistribute resources between consumers.

Optimal Monetary Policy and Term Structure in a Continuous-Time DSGE Model

This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy factors to study various channels through which China's economic fluctuations are linked to energy price shocks and to search for the optimal monetary policy to cope with energy price shocks. We conclude that there are channels through which changes in energy prices will have the following cause–effect relationships. First, a rise in energy price as a negative technology shock will raise the costs of providing capital services per unit of capital, thereby reducing output. Second, a rising energy price distorts the intertemporal choices of households and firms, creating downward pressure on the expected future return on capital. Third, an energy price shock places upward pressure on the marginal costs associated with an increase in inflation. Numerical simulation results show that a positive energy price shock has a positive effect on energy technology improvements. In addition, the effects of energy price shocks can be mitigated by nominal rigidities, and interest rate rules will determine the magnitude of those effects. Using the efficient frontier method, we also show that optimal monetary policy in China should help control energy price volatility.

We develop a model of analysing the optimal combination of macroprudential and monetary policies in a small open commodityexporting economy.Unlike a closed economy, where monetary and macroprudential policies tend to be substitutes, in a small open economy the optimal policy mix depends on the specifics of shocks and economic structure.Monetary and macroprudential policies tend to complement each other when the degree of pass-through of credit spreads into marginal costs and prices are sufficiently high, or when a credit boom is caused by a commodity boom, a fraction of consumers lacks access to financial markets, and the government follows a fiscal policy rule.The two policies are substitutes when the complementarity between domestic and imported production inputs is sufficiently high.

This article examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two‐country framework that allows for partial exchange rate pass‐through. Analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules depend on the degree of pass‐through. Each country unilaterally uses its fiscal instrument to stabilize the costs facing exporters. The welfare effects differ strongly depending on the degree of pass‐through. For high levels, both countries are better off with the fiscal instrument and welfare is closer to the benchmark flex‐price level. For low levels, however, the unilateral equilibrium policy rules lead to high volatility in taxes, and fiscal policy ends up being destabilizing by transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. Because these results stem from strategic considerations by the two countries, the fiscal instrument is not used under policy coordination. In addition, imposing a monetary union increases welfare when pass‐through is low, including the case of local currency pricing. (JEL E52, E63, F41, F42)

We consider a sticky-price model with segmented asset markets, and examine its implications for monetary policy. Our finding is, first, that the response of the money supply growth rate to a money demand shock required to stabilize inflation is not affected by the existence of a liquidity effect, but the response of the nominal interest rate is. Second, when the monetary authority adopts a Taylor rule, whether or not it should be active to obtain local determinacy of equilibria depends on the existence of a liquidity effect. Our results suggest that the monetary authority should be careful about the existence and the degree of a liquidity effect particularly when the nominal interest rate is used as the policy instrument.

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky information as a laboratory to study monetary policy. It characterizes the model's predictions for macro dynamics and optimal policy at prior parameters, and then uses data on five US macroeconomic series to update the parameters and provide an estimated model that can be used for policy analysis. The model answers a few policy questions. How does sticky information affect optimal monetary policy? What is the optimal interest rate rule? What is the optimal elastic price-level targeting rule? How does parameter uncertainty affect optimal policy? Are the conclusions for the Euro area different? (JEL E13, E31, E43, E52)

Optimal monetary policy under flexible exchange rates

Financial Shocks and Optimal Policy