Optimizing Bank Marketing Using Machine Learning and Predictive Models

Background: Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one of the biggest causes of mortality worldwide. Risk stratification for early detection is essential for the primary prevention of CAD. QRISK3 is known to overestimate future CAD risk in some populations, resulting in unnecessary preventive treatment and reduced cost-effectiveness and safety. Combining machine learning model with the metaheuristic optimisation approach using the PSO algorithm may outperform QRISK3 in predicting CAD. It improves performance by selecting the best-performing subset of features related to clinical outcomes. Research Question: Does the performance of Machine Learning Models Combined with PSO Algorithm for Feature Selection as a Metaheuristic Optimisation Approach in Predicting Coronary Arterial Disease using the UK Biobank dataset outperform the QRISK3 calculator? Aims: This study is to assess the accuracy of QRISK3 in predicting CAD using the UK Biobank dataset. It aims to evaluate the efficacy of machine learning models on the identical dataset for predicting CAD. The work utilises the PSO algorithm for feature selection to identify the optimal subset of features from the UK Biobank dataset. Methods: This study utilises data from the UK Biobank. The dataset consists of 348,015 participants aged 24-84 with no prior diagnosis of CAD. The performance of both QRISK3 and machine learning models was evaluated separately using ROC analysis. Several machine learning models were employed: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Gradient Boosting. The dataset was split into training and test sets with a ratio of 4:1 for the machine learning models. Each model has been developed by adding a PSO algorithm to enhance the model's classification accuracy. Results: Out of the total 348,015 participants, 23,136 individuals (6.64%) were diagnosed with CAD within 10 years following their first visit, while 324,879 individuals (93.4%) did not develop CAD. The AUC value of the QRISK3 prediction is 0.6113, while the combined machine learning models using the PSO algorithm using the gradient boosting model achieve an AUC of 0.7258, showing better performance. Conclusions: This study shows hybrid machine learning models optimised with the PSO algorithm can better predict CAD than QRISK3. These ML models can effectively identify high-risk CAD patients, allowing for more personalised preventative strategies and supporting policymakers in implementing lifestyle change recommendations.

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to shoulder the heaviest burden of malaria. The 2024 World Health Organisation (WHO) malaria report highlighted that Africa contributed an alarming 94% of the global cases and 95% of the deaths. In the WHO African region, progress towards elimination and management of malaria is hindered by weak health systems and a lack of traditional diagnostic methods such as microscopy and malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests (mRDTs). The primary aim of this paper is to develop a machine learning (ML) ensemble model for malaria diagnosis using clinical and demographic data, tailored for resource-limited settings. A retrospective study was conducted using 637 patient records from Gutu Mission Hospital and Gweru Provincial Hospital in Zimbabwe. Clinical symptoms (fever, chills, abdominal pain, headache and diarrhea) and demographic features (age, gender, residence and travel history) were analysed. Data preprocessing included handling class imbalance using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and feature selection using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE). Seven individual ML models, including Logistic regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Decision Trees (DT), Gradient Boosting (GB), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Naive Bayes (NB) and XGBoost were trained and evaluated on the malaria dataset. The individual models were further combined to build, train and evaluate ensemble models such as Bagging, Stacking, Soft Voting and AdaBoost. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, confusion matrices, recall, F1 score, and AUC-ROC metrics. Clinical symptoms (chills: p-value=0.001, fever: p=0.003, diarrhea: p=0.01, abdominal pain: p< 0.001) were statistically significant predictors of malaria. Of the demographic factors, only travel history (p=0.02) showed a significant association with malaria. Among the seven individual ML models, GB achieved the highest predictive performance (Accuracy =0.94), followed by RF (Accuracy =0.94) and XGBoost (Accuracy =0.93). The stacking ensemble model outperformed all individual ML models and other ensemble models (bagging, soft voting and AdaBoost), achieving accuracy =0.96, precision =0.95, recall =0.98, F1 score =0.96 and AUC-ROC =0.98. This study demonstrates that ML, particularly ensemble models, can be used to improve malaria diagnosis significantly. The integration of these models into a web-based application could provide a scalable and accessible diagnostic tool for healthcare workers in resource-limited settings.

Student’s mental health problems have been explored previously in higher education literature in various contexts including empirical work involving quantitative and qualitative methods. Nevertheless, comparatively few research could be found, aiming for computational methods that learn information directly from data without relying on set parameters for a predetermined equation as an analytical method. This study aims to investigate the performance of Machine learning (ML) models used in higher education. ML models considered are Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression, Stochastic Gradient Descent, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting Decision Tree), and NGBoost (Natural) algorithm. Considering the factors of mental health illness among students, we follow three phases of data processing: segmentation, feature extraction, and classification. We evaluate these ML models against classification performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and predicted run time. The empirical analysis includes two contributions: 1. It examines the performance of various ML models on a survey-based educational dataset, inferring a significant classification performance by a tree-based XGBoost algorithm; 2. It explores the feature importance [variables] from the datasets to infer the significant importance of social support, learning environment, and childhood adversities on a student’s mental health illness.

As the reliance on digital networks grows, the need for robust security measures becomes paramount. It offers a thorough analysis of creating and assessing a Network Intrusion Detection System (NIDS) incorporating various machine learning algorithms. The selected algorithms consist of K Nearest Neighbour, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression. Moreover, widely recognised ensemble learning models like CatBoost, AdaBoost, Gradient Boost, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boost. The core objective is to improve the efficiency of intrusion detection by evaluating various machine-learning models. Utilizes feature selection techniques based on chi-square to enhance the relevance and effectiveness of the selected features. The evaluation metrics, particularly Matthews’ Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and ROC Curves, are used in assessing the models’ efficacy. They offer valuable insights into the models’ capability to differentiate between normal and malicious network activities. This study aims to advance cybersecurity by comparing classical machine learning and ensemble models for network intrusion detection. Significantly, our results underscore XGBoost’s effectiveness with 0.996 accuracy and 0.993 MCC, in enhancing digital network security.

Optimizing asphalt mix design through predicting effective asphalt content and absorbed asphalt content using machine learning

How to identify suspected infection for sepsis surveillance purposes remains a well-recognised challenge. This study aimed to operationalise suspected infection for sepsis surveillance by developing an interpretable machine learning (ML) model for retrospective identification of patients with sepsis. This multicentre cohort and machine learning study was conducted in two Dutch tertiary care hospitals. Adult patients with a quick Sequential Organ Failure assessment (qSOFA) ≥2 were included. Exclusion criteria included admission to the intensive care unit, transfer to or from another hospital, or patient refusal to reuse data. Cohort one consisted of patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of hospital A between 01/01/2019 and 12/31/2019, to investigate community-onset sepsis. An external validation cohort of ED patients was obtained from hospital B between 01/01/2021 and 06/03/2022. Cohort two included hospitalised patients from hospital A between 01/01/2021 and 06/01/2022, to investigate hospital-onset sepsis. Objective data were extracted from electronic health records. Seven ML methods, including gradient boosting, random forest, logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, K nearest neighbours and stochastic gradient descent, were trained to identify sepsis with manual chart review as reference standard. The F1 score (harmonic mean of precision and recall), sensitivity and specificity were used as evaluation metrics. The best performing ML method was compared with other commonly used suspected infection proxies, including the Sepsis-3 definition, an adapted Adult Sepsis Event (ASE) definition and International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. In the ED cohort, 655 patients were included (male: 355 (54.2%), female: 300 (45.8%)) and 240 (36.6%) had sepsis. For community-onset sepsis, gradient boosting performed best with an F1 score of 85.9%, a sensitivity of 91.1% (95%-CI 83.4-95.4%) and a specificity of 89.0% (95%-CI 83.4-92.8%). Most model features reflected either the inflammatory response (CRP, body temperature) or actions taken when an infection is suspected (antibiotic administration, microbial culture). In the external validation cohort, 185 patients were included (male: 94 (50.8%), female: 91 (49.2%)) and 54 (29.2%) had sepsis. External validation yielded an F1 score of 85.7%, a sensitivity of 87.5% (95%-CI 75.3-94.1%) and a specificity of 92.5% (95%-CI 85.9-96.2%). The gradient boosting model outperformed other commonly used proxies for suspected infection in terms of sensitivity, achieving 91.1% (95% CI: 83.4-95.4%), compared to Sepsis-3 with 78.9% (95% CI: 69.4-86.0%), the adapted ASE with 85.6% (95% CI: 76.8-91.4%), and ICD codes with 33.3% (95% CI: 24.5-43.6%). In the hospitalised cohort, 493 patients were included (male: 265 (53.8%), female: 228 (46.2%)) and 129 (26.2%) had sepsis. For hospital-onset sepsis, logistic regression had the highest F1 score (52.2%). Sensitivity was 58.1% (95%-CI 40.6-75.5%) and specificity was 82.9% (95%-CI 76.0-89.8%). ED patients meeting ≥2 qSOFA criteria can be accurately classified as having suspected infection or not by a gradient boosting algorithm, outperforming common suspected infection definitions for sepsis surveillance. Including the inflammatory response in the suspected infection surveillance definition may enhance the accuracy and objectivity of sepsis surveillance. Future research is needed to validate the algorithm using other organ dysfunction criteria and in international settings. None.

Machine Learning (ML) models have been extensively applied in various fields to enhance prediction. For instance, in cybersecurity, they examine large amounts of data, establish trends in the data, and draw insights from previous events, to enhance detection and respond to cyber threats. Random Forest, Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor and LSTM are some of the popular ML models vastly used for anomaly detection. The accuracy of these models is therefore the cornerstone of the organization’s information systems security since wrong predictions result to false positives and negatives which significantly reduce employees’ output and may result into workers’ frustrations when interacting with the information systems. Among the many factors that affect ML model performance, data pre-processing has been underscored. Using the various publicly available datasets, this paper examines the impact of data preprocessing techniques on selected ML model architectures’ performance. Training time, Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F1 scores are used for evaluating the ML models’ performance.

Accurate and early diagnosis of HIV/AIDS is critical for effective treatment and reducing disease transmission. This study evaluates the performance of several machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Naive Bayes, for classifying HIV/AIDS infection status. A dataset comprising 50,000 samples was used, and models were assessed based on accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score using stratified ten-fold cross-validation to ensure robust evaluation. The results reveal significant trade-offs between sensitivity and specificity across the models. Gradient Boosting achieved the highest accuracy (70.85%) and precision (57.81%), making it suitable for confirmatory testing where minimizing false positives is critical. Conversely, Naive Bayes demonstrated the highest recall (57.99%) and F1 score (51.04%), emphasizing its effectiveness in early-stage diagnostics where sensitivity is paramount. SVM exhibited the highest precision (59.87%) but struggled with recall (11.28%), reflecting its conservative nature in classifying positive cases. These findings underscore the importance of selecting models tailored to specific diagnostic objectives. While Naive Bayes is ideal for comprehensive screening programs, Gradient Boosting and SVM are better suited for confirmatory testing. This research provides valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of machine learning models for medical diagnostics, paving the way for developing more robust, hybrid approaches to optimize sensitivity and specificity in HIV/AIDS classification.

Breast cancer continues to be a leading cause of death among women in the world. The prediction of survival outcomes based on treatment modalities, i.e., chemotherapy, hormone therapy, surgery, and radiation therapy is an essential step towards personalization in treatment planning. However, Machine Learning (ML) models may improve these predictions by investigating intricate relationships between clinical variables and survival. This study investigates the performance of several ML models to predict survival rate in patients undergoing diverse breast cancer treatments i.e., chemotherapy, hormone therapy, surgery and radiation using multiple clinical parameters. The dataset consisted of 5000 samples and turned into downloaded from Kaggle. The models assessed blanketed Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XG boost), and Decision tree. Performance of the models was assessed using parameters such as Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score and Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values analysis was done to provide an explanation for the impact of a feature on model predictions using Waterfall and Beeswarm plots. Anticipated baseline (E(f(x))) were in comparison to the predictions (f(x)) for each therapy group. Performance of Gradient Boosting was shown to be the best with an Accuracy: 0.972, Precision: 0.973, Recall: 0.972, F1-Score: 0.973, and AUC-ROC Score: 0.997. Chemotherapy had a notably bad impact on survival, with an f(x) of -0.274 and an E(f(x)) of -0.025. Hormone therapy showed the maximum detrimental effect on survival, with an f(x) of -0.408. Surgical operation had an extraordinarily impartial impact (f(x) = -0.041), even as radiation therapy positively impacted survival results with an f(x) of 0.22. Gradient Boosting was the most predictive algorithm for breast cancer survival outcomes. This SHAP-primarily based analysis provides a complete knowledge of ways one-of-a-kind treatments have an effect on survival predictions in breast cancer patients. Radiation therapy indicates the most tremendous effect on survival, whilst hormone therapy reveals the maximum poor effect. Future studies need to explore personalized treatment strategies that comprise these insights to enhance patient effects.

Chronic pain around the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) and masticatory muscles is a primary symptom of temporomandibular disorders (TMD). However, the clinical significance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features in predicting TMD-related pain remains unclear. This study aimed to develop and interpret machine learning (ML) models based on MRI characteristics for predicting pain severity in patients with TMD. The present retrospective study included 584 patients with TMD between January 2022 and December 2024, yielding a total of 755 TMJ MRI data sets. Pain severity was classified using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Demographic variables (age, sex) and MRI features-including lesion side, disc position, disc morphology, disc signal, disc perforation, bilaminar zone tear, joint space, joint effusion, condylar movement, bony changes and morphology/signal of the lateral pterygoid muscle-were collected. Eleven ML models based on demographic and MRI features were developed: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), gradient boosting classifier (GBC), bagging classifier (BC), extremely randomised trees (ETC), decision tree classifier (DTC) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Model performance was evaluated using multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F1 score. Precision-recall (PR) curves and calibration curves were plotted to assess discrimination and model calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical net benefit across a range of threshold probabilities. Model interpretability was enhanced using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), which quantified the contribution of each feature to individual predictions. Feature selection was conducted based on mean SHAP values, and separate LightGBM models were constructed using the Top 3, 5, and 9 most important features, as well as the full-feature set, for performance comparison. The data set was randomly divided into a training set (n = 604) and a test set (n = 151). Among the 11 ML models, the LightGBM model demonstrated the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.899, and was therefore identified as the optimal model. SHAP analysis identified age, disc position and condylar movement as the top three contributing features. Feature selection analysis indicated that selecting the top nine SHAP-ranked variables led to the highest diagnostic performance, with an AUC of 0.829. This study developed an interpretable, high-performing MRI-based ML model incorporating SHAP analysis to integrate imaging and clinical features for objective pain assessment, which may help identify high-risk TMD patients and guide personalised treatment strategies.

This study investigates the predictive performance of machine learning models in diagnosing diabetes using the Pima Indians Diabetes Dataset. Seven models, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, Stacking Classifier, and Voting Classifier, were evaluated. A 10-fold cross-validation strategy was employed to ensure robust and reliable performance assessment. The evaluation incorporated standard metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC, as well as a custom metric designed to prioritize recall while maintaining precision, addressing the clinical importance of minimizing false negatives. LightGBM and Random Forest emerged as the top-performing individual models, achieving competitive scores across metrics. Ensemble methods, particularly the Stacking Classifier, demonstrated robustness by leveraging the complementary strengths of base models. Statistical validation using the Friedman test confirmed significant differences in model rankings, with a test statistic of 22.77 and a p-value of 0.00088. However, pairwise comparisons using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed that the differences between top models, such as LightGBM and Random Forest, were not statistically significant. These results emphasize the effectiveness of tree-based and ensemble models in addressing clinical diagnostic challenges. The study highlights the importance of using a custom metric to align model evaluation with clinical priorities. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches and larger datasets to further enhance predictive accuracy and generalizability in real-world healthcare applications.

Understanding the Performance of Machine Learning Models to Predict Credit Default: A Novel Approach for Supervisory Evaluation

BackgroundCardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is a common complication following cardiac surgery. Early prediction of CSA-AKI is of great significance for improving patients' prognoses. The aim of this study is to systematically evaluate the predictive performance of machine learning models for CSA-AKI.MethodsCochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 18 March 2022. Risk of bias assessment was performed using PROBAST. Rsoftware (version 4.1.1) was used to calculate the accuracy and C-index of CSA-AKI prediction. The importance of CSA-AKI prediction was defined according to the frequency of related factors in the models.ResultsThere were 38 eligible studies included, with a total of 255,943 patients and 60 machine learning models. The models mainly included Logistic Regression (n = 34), Neural Net (n = 6), Support Vector Machine (n = 4), Random Forest (n = 6), Extreme Gradient Boosting (n = 3), Decision Tree (n = 3), Gradient Boosted Machine (n = 1), COX regression (n = 1), κNeural Net (n = 1), and Naïve Bayes (n = 1), of which 51 models with intact recording in the training set and 17 in the validating set. Variables with the highest predicting frequency included Logistic Regression, Neural Net, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. The C-index and accuracy wer 0.76 (0.740, 0.780) and 0.72 (0.70, 0.73), respectively, in the training set, and 0.79 (0.75, 0.83) and 0.73 (0.71, 0.74), respectively, in the test set.ConclusionThe machine learning-based model is effective for the early prediction of CSA-AKI. More machine learning methods based on noninvasive or minimally invasive predictive indicators are needed to improve the predictive performance and make accurate predictions of CSA-AKI. Logistic regression remains currently the most commonly applied model in CSA-AKI prediction, although it is not the one with the best performance. There are other models that would be more effective, such as NNET and XGBoost.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/; review registration ID: CRD42022345259.

Introduction: Patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) have high risk for recurrent ASCVD events despite statin use. Pooled cohort equations (PCE) are used for ASCVD risk prediction in primary prevention but there are no validated models for recurrent risk prediction in secondary prevention. Machine learning (ML) demonstrates promise in developing novel risk prediction models using electronic health record (EHR) data. Methods: We included adults with prior ASCVD from EHR data from an outpatient Northern California system between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018 with at least 2 visits at least 1 year apart and 5 years of follow up. The outcome was a recurrent ASCVD event defined as the first myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal coronary artery disease in the 5 year follow-up period. We trained ML models to predict recurrent ASCVD risk: random forests (RF), gradient boosted machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosted models (XGBoost), and logistic regression with a standard L 2 penalty (LR) and an L 1 penalty (Lasso). We evaluated performance of ML models and the PCE on a 20% held-out test cohort using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Results: Our cohort consisted of 32,192 patients with ASCVD (Mean age 70 years, 46% women, 12% Asian and 6% Hispanic). Less than half (49%) were on guideline directed statins. XGBoost and GBM were the best performing models for recurrent ASCVD risk prediction, while the PCE performed poorly (Figure). The top 20 predictive variables for recurrent ASCVD risk included prior events (ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction), traditional risk factors (age, blood pressure, lipid levels) and socioeconomic factors (income, education). Conclusions: EHR-trained machine learning models facilitated recurrent ASCVD risk prediction in real-world secondary prevention patients. Machine learning models developed from large datasets may help bridge contemporary gaps in ASCVD risk prediction.

BackgroundAcute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) is one of the most common critical diseases encountered in the intensive care unit (ICU), with a mortality rate ranging from 15 to 20%. Accurate stratification of acute gastrointestinal bleeding into acute variceal gastrointestinal bleeding (AVGIB) and acute non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding (ANGIB) subtypes is clinically essential as distinct entities require markedly different therapeutic approaches and even divergent prognostic implications. AUGIB characterized by hemorrhagic shock, hypotension, multiple organ dysfunction (MODS), and even circulatory failure is life-threatening. Machine learning (ML) prediction model can be an effective tool for mortality prediction, enabling the timely identification of high-risk patients and improving outcomes.MethodsA total of 3,050 acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) patients were included in our research from the MIMIC-IV database, among which 625 patients were classified as AVGIB and 2,425 patients were categorized as ANGIB. Patients’ clinical features, intervention methods, vital signs, scores, and important laboratory results were collected. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique-Edited Nearest Neighbors (SMOTE-ENN) and Adaptive Synthetic Sampling (ADASYN) were adopted to address the imbalance of the dataset. As many as 12 machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely, logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), AdaBoost, XGBoost, Naive Bayes (NB), support vector machine (SVM), light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), extremely randomized trees (ET), and voting classifier (VC), were performed. The model performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was conducted to identify the most influential features contributing to mortality prediction.ResultsIn terms of AVGIB patients, extremely randomized trees model demonstrated excellent predictive value among other ML models, with the AUC of 0.996 ± 0.007, accuracy of 0.996 ± 0.009, precision of 0.957 ± 0.024, recall of 0.988 ± 0.012, and F1 score of 0.972 ± 0.007. The top 10 primary feature variables of ET model were whether combined with acute kidney failure, transfusion of albumin, vasoactive drugs, transfusion of plasma, transfusion of platelet, the max of international normalized ratio (INR), the max of prothrombin time (PT), and the max of activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT). In case of ANGIB patients, gradient boosting model proven to be the optimal machine learning models, with the AUC of 0.985 ± 0.002, accuracy of 0.948 ± 0.009, precision of 0.949 ± 0.009, recall of 0.968 ± 0.009, and F1 score of 0.959 ± 0.007. Similarly, the top 10 feature variables of GB model were Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, vasoactive drugs, acute kidney failure, AIMS65 score, APACHE-II score, mechanical ventilation, the minimum of lactate, chronic liver disease, and the minimum and maximum of APTT. The SHAP visualization shows the weights of two ML models feature variables and the average sharp values of variables. Meanwhile, SHAP waterfall outputs the model prediction process with true positive and negative patients. Most importantly, two website prognostic prediction platforms were developed to enhance clinical accessibility: the ET model for AVGIB patients available at https://10zr656do5281.vicp.fun while the GB model for ANGIB patients accessible at http://10zr656do5281.vicp.fun.ConclusionThe ET model provides a reliable prognostic tool for AVGIB patients, while the GB model serves as a robust tool for ANGIB patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. By systematically integrating clinical features, risk stratification scores, vital signs, and invention measures, the ML models may deliver comprehensive predictions that benefit for clinical decision-making and potentially enhance clinical outcomes in the near future.