Predicting the Need for Cardiovascular Surgery: A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), driven by environmental pollution, pose significant threats to water quality, public health, and aquatic ecosystems. This study aims to enhance the prediction of HABs in Lake Erie, part of the Great Lakes system, by utilizing ensemble machine learning (ML) models coupled with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for interpretability. Using water quality data from 2013 to 2020, various physical, chemical, and biological parameters were analyzed to predict chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations, a proxy for algal blooms. The study employed multiple ensemble ML models, including Random Forest (RF), Deep Forest (DF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and XGBoost, and compared their performance against individual models such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The findings reveal that ensemble models, particularly XGBoost and Deep Forest (DF), achieve superior predictive accuracy with R² values of 0.8517 and 0.8544, respectively. The application of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided insights into the relative importance of input features, identifying Particulate Organic Nitrogen (PON), Particulate Organic Carbon (POC), and Total Phosphorus (TP) as critical factors influencing Chl-a concentrations. This research demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating ensemble ML models with XAI to improve HAB prediction accuracy and interpretability. The results support the development of proactive water quality management strategies and highlight the potential of advanced ML techniques in environmental monitoring.

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a clinical condition characterized by a decline in cognitive ability and progression of cognitive impairment. It is often considered a transitional stage between normal aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). This study aimed to compare deep learning (DL) and traditional machine learning (ML) methods in predicting MCI using plasma proteomic biomarkers. A total of 239 adults were selected from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort along with a pool of 146 plasma proteomic biomarkers. We evaluated seven traditional ML models (support vector machines (SVMs), logistic regression (LR), naïve Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)) and six variations of a deep neural network (DNN) model-the DL model in the H2O package. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) selected 35 proteomic biomarkers from the pool. Based on grid search, the DNN model with an activation function of "Rectifier With Dropout" with 2 layers and 32 of 35 selected proteomic biomarkers revealed the best model with the highest accuracy of 0.995 and an F1 Score of 0.996, while among seven traditional ML methods, XGBoost was the best with an accuracy of 0.986 and an F1 Score of 0.985. Several biomarkers were correlated with the APOE-ε4 genotype, polygenic hazard score (PHS), and three clinical cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers (Aβ42, tTau, and pTau). Bioinformatics analysis using Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) revealed several molecular functions and pathways associated with the selected biomarkers, including cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, cholesterol metabolism, and regulation of lipid localization. The results showed that the DL model may represent a promising tool in the prediction of MCI. These plasma proteomic biomarkers may help with early diagnosis, prognostic risk stratification, and early treatment interventions for individuals at risk for MCI.

Background and objectiveThreatened abortion, a common pregnancy complication that often leading to abortion, is hard to predict due to its non-specific symptoms and difficulty in differentiating from other early pregnancy bleeding causes. Current diagnostic methods like serial ultrasounds and clinical monitoring are time-consuming and lack timeliness. To fill the gap in using advanced analytics for early detection and risk stratification, this study develops a machine learning (ML) model based on routine blood data to better predict threatened abortion, providing a reference for early detection and intervention.MethodsIn this study, we collected medical records from January 2022 to March 2024. We analyzed data from 1764 patients with threatened abortion and 1489 healthy controls. Blood test data of all participants were gathered. The Z-score normalization technique was applied to standardize blood routine indicators. This reduced the influence of outliers and noise. During hyperparameter optimization, ‘class_weight="balanced"’ was set to handle sample imbalance. The screening data was partitioned into a training set of 2928 cases (including the validation set) and a test set of 325 cases at an 8:1:1 ratio. Python was used to facilitate data transformation. Eight different ML algorithms—Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Deep Neural Network (DNN), Decision Tree (DT) and Naive Bayes (NB)—were used to construct a threatened abortion prediction model. The prediction performances of the ML models were evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) values. We used the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method to explain the models.ResultsComparatively, the DNN model showed the highest predictive performance among the eight models, with the highest AUC value of 96.76% and top metrics for accuracy (91.88%), specificity (91.62%), sensitivity (92.11%), and F1 score (92.48%). SHAP analysis identified Red Cell Distribution Width - Standard Deviation (RDW-SD), Platelet Distribution Width (PDW), Mean Platelet Volume (MPV), Red Cell Distribution Width - Coefficient of Variation (RDW-CV), Absolute Basophil Count (BAS#), Platelet Count (PLT), Mean Corpuscular Hemoglobin Concentration (MCHC) and Lymphocyte Percentage (LYM) as the most influential features in predicting threatened abortion, with PDW, RDW-CV, BAS#, PLT, MCHC and LYM positively contributing to the prediction, whereas RDW-SD and MPV had negative contributions.ConclusionsOur research on constructing a prediction model for threatened abortion through routine blood tests has revealed the great potential of ML algorithms in detecting threatened abortion. This algorithm is expected to analyse routine blood data to identify at-risk pregnancies at an early stage, significantly improving the early detection of this common pregnancy complication. It will assist healthcare providers in intervening earlier and reducing the incidence of abortion. However, before the model can be translated into routine clinical applications, more extensive validation studies are still needed.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-025-08030-z.

While the rapid development of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic helped save billions of lives, a significant percentage of the population reported adverse reactions after vaccination. Post-vaccination surveys were conducted to understand the possible side effects. Analyzing and understanding the side effects enables the relevant stakeholders to gain more understanding of the vaccine and allows the individual to make informed decisions about whether to receive the vaccine. This work aims to identify a robust approach that can be used to predict the possibility of potential adverse symptoms. A dataset comprising 840 participants with 15 Post-Vaccination Symptoms was considered for the study. Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique (SMOTE) was used to handle the class imbalance of the dataset. A combination of SMOTE and ensemble machine learning models was used to predict the adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines. The ensemble Machine Learning (ML) models that are considered for this study are Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and AdaBoost. The metrics accuracy, precision, recall and Receiver Operating Characteristic-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) were used to measure the performance of the models. The dataset was pre-processed to handle missing values and one-hot encoding was applied to convert categorical variables into the numerical format. Insights into the data distribution and relationships between variables were gained through exploratory data and correlation analysis, respectively. Class imbalance in the target variables was addressed using SMOTE, resulting in a significantly improved F1-score and ROC-AUC score. Among the ensemble ML models, XGBoost delivered the best performance metrics. A combined performance score was calculated by averaging the F1-score and accuracy to identify the best model. XGBoost obtained the highest performance score among the ensemble ML models, and its performance is further enhanced by performing the threshold adjustment using the maximum F1- score strategy. The findings suggest that the combination of SMOTE and ensemble learning models with threshold adjustment provides a more efficient prediction of adverse effects after COVID-19 vaccination, aiding in healthcare decision-making.

Summary A meticulous interpretation of steady-state or unsteady-state relative permeability (Kr) experimental data is required to determine a complete set of Kr curves. In this work, different machine learning (ML) models were developed to assist in a faster estimation of these curves from steady-state drainage coreflooding experimental runs. These ML algorithms include gradient boosting (GB), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and deep neural network (DNN) with a main focus on and comparison of the two latter algorithms (XGB and DNN). Based on existing mathematical models, a leading-edge framework was developed where a large database of Kr and capillary pressure (Pc) curves were generated. This database was used to perform thousands of coreflood simulation runs representing oil-water drainage steady-state experiments. The results obtained from these simulation runs, mainly pressure drop along with other conventional core analysis data, were used to estimate analytical Kr curves based on Darcy’s law. These analytically estimated Kr curves along with the previously generated Pc curves were fed as features into the ML model. The entire data set was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. The k-fold cross-validation technique was applied to increase the model’s accuracy by splitting 80% of the training data into 10 folds. In this manner, for each of the 10 experiments, nine folds were used for training and the remaining fold was used for model validation. Once the model was trained and validated, it was subjected to blind testing on the remaining 20% of the data set. The ML model learns to capture fluid flow behavior inside the core from the training data set. In terms of applicability of these ML models, two sets of experimental data were needed as input; the first was the analytically estimated Kr curves from the steady-state drainage coreflooding experiments, while the other was the Pc curves estimated from centrifuge or mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) measurements. The trained/tested model was then able to estimate Kr curves based on the experimental results fed as input. Furthermore, to test the performance of the ML model when only one set of experimental data is available to an end user, a recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm was trained/tested to predict Kr curves in the absence of Pc curves as an input. The performance of the three developed models (XGB, DNN, and RNN) was assessed using the values of the coefficient of determination (R2) along with the loss calculated during training/validation of the model. The respective crossplots along with comparisons of ground truth vs. artificial intelligence (AI)-predicted curves indicated that the model is capable of making accurate predictions with an error percentage between 0.2% and 0.6% on history-matching experimental data for all three tested ML techniques. This implies that the AI-based model exhibits better efficiency and reliability in determining Kr curves when compared to conventional methods. The developed ML models by no means replace the need to conduct drainage coreflooding or centrifuge experiments but act as an alternative to existing commercial platforms that are used to interpret experimental data to predict Kr curves. The two main advantages of the developed ML models are their capability of predicting Kr curves within a matter of a few minutes as well as with limited intervention from the end user. The results also include a comparison between classical ML approaches, shallow neural networks, and DNNs in terms of accuracy in predicting the final Kr curves. The research presented here is an extension of the state-of-the-art framework proposed by Mathew et al. (2021). However, the two main aspects of the current study are the application of deep learning for the prediction of Kr curves and the application of feature engineering. The latter not only reduces the training/testing time for the ML models but also enables the end user to obtain the final predictions with the least set of experimental data. The various models discussed in this research work currently focus on the prediction of Kr curves for drainage steady-state experiments; however, the work can be extended to capture the imbibition cycle as well.

Batteries are the most expensive component of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), but they degrade over time and battery operation. State of health (SOH) forecasting models learn how battery operation over long-time periods of weeks or months influences battery aging. Currently, existing methods for SOH forecasting of lithium-ion batteries based on deep neural network (DNN) models lack explainability of their forecasts due to their inherent black box character. However, the explainability of forecasts is essential to build user trust into the forecasting models. In this work, we address this problem from two perspectives: First, we compared four machine learning (ML) models like decision tree and random forest, which are inherently transparent, to two new DNN architectures with a more inherent black box character. Second, we proposed a new method using Gaussian-filtered saliency maps to visualize battery operational states that are relevant to DNN models. This method is applied to the best DNN models previously trained. We used an extensive data corpus consisting of five public data sets with different operational conditions, battery types, and aging trajectories. Furthermore, we show that the Gaussian-filtered saliency maps meaningfully visualize battery operational states that are consistent with findings from controlled laboratory aging experiments. Thus, this work was able to add transparency and interpretability to the SOH forecasting results of two state-of-the-art DNNs, while maintaining their superior performance compared to transparent ML models, while mitigating their inherent black box character.

The use of deep learning and machine learning (ML) in medical science is increasing, particularly in the visual, audio, and language data fields. We aimed to build a new optimized ensemble model by blending a DNN (deep neural network) model with two ML models for disease prediction using laboratory test results. 86 attributes (laboratory tests) were selected from datasets based on value counts, clinical importance-related features, and missing values. We collected sample datasets on 5145 cases, including 326,686 laboratory test results. We investigated a total of 39 specific diseases based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. These datasets were used to construct light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) ML models and a DNN model using TensorFlow. The optimized ensemble model achieved an F1-score of 81% and prediction accuracy of 92% for the five most common diseases. The deep learning and ML models showed differences in predictive power and disease classification patterns. We used a confusion matrix and analyzed feature importance using the SHAP value method. Our new ML model achieved high efficiency of disease prediction through classification of diseases. This study will be useful in the prediction and diagnosis of diseases.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare enables predicting diabetes using data-driven methods instead of the traditional ways of screening the disease, which include hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) screening techniques, which are invasive and limited in scale. Machine learning (ML) and deep neural network (DNN) models that use large datasets to learn the complex, nonlinear feature interactions, but the conventional ML algorithms are data sensitive and often show unstable predictive accuracy. Conversely, DNN models are more robust, though the ability to reach a high accuracy rate consistently on heterogeneous datasets is still an open challenge. For predicting diabetes, this work proposed a hybrid DNN approach by integrating a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network with a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU). A robust DL model, developed by combining various datasets with weighted coefficients, dense operations in the connection of deep layers, and the output aggregation using batch normalization and dropout functions to avoid overfitting. The goal of this hybrid model is better generalization and consistency among various datasets, which facilitates the effective management and early intervention. The proposed DNN model exhibits an excellent predictive performance as compared to the state-of-the-art and baseline ML and DNN models for diabetes prediction tasks. The robust performance indicates the possible usefulness of DL-based models in the development of disease prediction in healthcare and other areas that demand high-quality analytics.

Purpose This study aims to examine the potential effect that corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices in general and business ethics, more specifically, can exert on the financial performance of companies using advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. Design/methodology/approach Based on a sample of 523 international firms headquartered in North America and Western Europe between 2005 and 2019, the research design employs advanced machine learning algorithms including LightGBM, CatBoost, XGBoost, NGBoost, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest to assess the relationship between business ethics, CSR practices, and financial performance. In addition, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique was used to provide comprehensive insights into feature contributions to individual predictions. Findings Findings indicate a growing interest in business ethics and societal practices over the past decade. The results have revealed that the adoption of an ethical and socially responsible approach is associated with financial performance. Practical implications This study provides actionable insights for multinational companies, emphasizing the role of business ethics and social responsibility practices in enhancing financial performance. It also holds significance for practitioners aiming to improve financial efficiency. By exploring the relationship between social effectiveness and financial efficiency, this research leverages ML techniques to offer a deeper understanding of this critical connection. Originality/value This study contributes to the field by using advanced ML techniques, including SHAP, to explore the relationship between business ethics and CSR practices on Financial Performance. The findings, particularly the superior accuracy of XGBoost among algorithms, provide valuable insights into the implications of business ethics and social practices on firm financial performance.

Background Safety issues for fluoroquinolones have been provided by regulatory agencies. This study was conducted to identify signals of fluoroquinolones reported in the Korea Adverse Event Reporting System (KAERS) using tree-based machine learning (ML) methods. Research design and methods All adverse events (AEs) associated with the target drugs reported in the KAERS from 2013 to 2017 were matched with drug label information. A dataset containing label-positive and -negative AEs was arbitrarily divided into training and test sets. Decision tree, random forest (RF), bagging, and gradient boosting machine (GBM) were fitted on the training set with hyperparameters tuned using five-fold cross-validation and applied to the test set. The ML method with the highest area under the curve (AUC) scores was selected as the final ML model. Results Bagging was selected as the final ML model for gemifloxacin (AUC score: 1) and levofloxacin (AUC: 0.9987). RF was selected in ciprofloxacin, moxifloxacin, and ofloxacin (AUC scores: 0.9859, 0.9974, and 0.9999 respectively). We found that the final ML methods detected additional signals that were not detected using the disproportionality analysis (DPA) methods. Conclusions The bagging-or-RF-based ML methods performed better than DPA and detected novel AE signals previously unidentified using the DPA methods.

<p>Machine Learning (ML) methods have seen widespread adoption in seismology in recent years. The ability of these techniques to efficiently infer the statistical properties of large datasets often provides significant improvements over traditional techniques when the number of data are large (>millions of examples). With the entire spectrum of seismological tasks, e.g., seismic picking and detection, magnitude and source property estimation, ground motion prediction, hypocentre determination; among others, now incorporating ML approaches, numerous models are emerging as these techniques are further adopted within seismology.</p><p>To evaluate these algorithms, quality controlled benchmark datasets that contain representative class distributions are vital. In addition to this, models require implementation through a common framework to facilitate comparison. Accessing both benchmark datasets, and integrating models built in such varying frameworks is currently a time-consuming process, hindering further advancement of ML techniques within seismology. These development bottlenecks also affect 'practitioners' seeking to deploy the latest models on seismic data, who may not want to necessarily learn entirely new ML frameworks to perform this task.</p><p>We present SeisBench as a software package to tackle these issues. SeisBench is an open-source framework for deploying ML in seismology. SeisBench standardises access to both models and datasets, whilst also integrating a range of common processing and data augmentation operations through the API. Through SeisBench, users can access several seismological ML models and benchmark datasets available in the literature via a single interface. SeisBench is built to be extensible, with community involvement encouraged to expand the package. Having such frameworks available for accessing leading ML models forms an essential tool for seismologists seeking to iterate and apply the next generation of ML techniques to seismic data.</p>

Optimisation and interpretation of machine and deep learning models for improved water quality management in Lake Loktak

Aims This research paper aims to check the effectiveness of a variety of machine learning models in classifying esophageal cancer through MRI scans. The current study encompasses Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Visual Geometry Group 16 (VGG16), among others which are elaborated in this paper. This paper aims to identify the most accurate model to facilitate increased, improved diagnostic accuracy to revolutionize early detection methods for this dreadful disease. The ultimate goal is, therefore, to improve the clinical practice performance and its results with advanced machine learning techniques in medical diagnosis. Background Esophageal cancer poses a critical problem for medical oncologists since its pathology is quite complex, and the death rate is exceptionally high. Proper early detection is essential for effective treatment and improved survival. The results are positive, but the conventional diagnostic methods are not sensitive and have low specificity. Recent progress in machine learning methods brings a new possibility to high sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis. This paper explores the potentiality of different machine-learning models in classifying esophageal cancer through MRI scans to complement the constraints of the traditional diagnostics approach. Objective This study is aimed at verifying whether CNN, KNN, RNN, and VGG16, amongst other advanced machine learning models, are effective in correctly classifying esophageal cancer from MRI scans. This review aims at establishing the diagnostic accuracy of all these models, with the best among all. It plays a role in developing early detection mechanisms that increase patient outcome confidence in the clinical setting. Methods This study applies the approach of comparative analysis by using four unique machine learning models to classify esophageal cancer from MRI scans. This was made possible through the intensive training and validation of the model using a standardized set of MRI data. The model’s effectiveness was assessed using performance evaluation metrics, which included accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Results In classifying esophageal cancers from MRI scans, the current study found VGG16 to be an adequate model, with a high accuracy of 96.66%. CNN took the second position, with an accuracy of 94.5%, showing efficient results for spatial pattern recognition. The model of KNN and RNN also showed commendable performance, with accuracies of 91.44% and 88.97%, respectively, portraying their strengths in proximity-based learning and handling sequential data. These findings underline the potential to add significant value to the processes of esophageal cancer diagnosis using machine learning models. Conclusion The study concluded that machine learning techniques, mainly VGG16 and CNN, had a high potential for escalated diagnostic precision in classifying esophageal cancer from MRI imaging. VGG16 showed great accuracy, while CNN displayed advanced spatial detection, followed by KNN and RNN. Thus, the results set new opportunities for introducing advanced computational models to the clinics, which might transform strategies for early detection to improve patient-centered outcomes in oncology.

Coastal aquifers are vital for sustaining ecosystems and providing freshwater for agriculture and domestic use. However, rising groundwater salinity in these regions demands innovative approaches for accurate modeling and prediction. In recent decades, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been extensively used across various water resource management fields, often yielding promising outcomes. This review examines the growing usage of ML and DL techniques in modeling groundwater salinity in coastal aquifers. The analysis is based on 104 peer-reviewed journal articles including the review articles indexed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, Scopus, and SpringerLink using keywords like "saltwater intrusion", "machine learning", “deep learning”, and "groundwater salinity". The review discusses recent advancements, challenges, and future directions for improving ML model accuracy and applicability. Studies reveal an increasing reliance on ML techniques to predict groundwater salinity and manage seawater intrusion across various coastal geological settings. Researchers have employed a range of ML models, from traditional methods like Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems to advanced DL-based models like Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory Networks, often using ensemble methods to enhance accuracy. Key findings include the top-tier output of ensemble and optimized models, including Random Forest and Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm-XGBoost. These studies highlight the importance of model selection, input variable ranking, and computational efficiency, demonstrating ML's global relevance in environmental management. The review highlights the prospects of ML, DL, and ensemble models to redefine groundwater management in coastal aquifers, offering more effective and sustainable solutions to the challenges posed by groundwater salinity and saltwater intrusion. Future advancements will focus on further integrating DL, explainable artificial intelligence, and ensemble approaches, along with other innovative techniques, to explore sparsely studied variables, model new or unique study areas, and apply ML methods for managing groundwater salinity.

Background: Application of Machine Learning (ML) techniques in the prediction of Neurological Disorders has been growing rapidly. ML techniques require novel computer programming skills along with domain knowledge to produce a useful tool. We used Google Auto ML and Google ML Tables, a Cloud based front-end tools to develop, validate and deploy a prognostic model for Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH) without a single line of programming code. Methods: Data from Kasturba Medical College (KMC) Hospital ICH Stroke Registry between January 2015 and May 2019 was accessed. Google Auto ML Tables splits the dataset into training, validation and testing sets. 80% of the dataset was used for training, 10% for validation, and 10% for testing. Cramers V correlation statistic ( ϕ c ) between 30 variables and outcome was used to select 20 variables to predict the dichotomous outcome of good (mRS 0-3) vs bad outcome (mRS 4-6). The ML model generated was evaluated using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) measures and by confusion/error matrix. Logistic Regression model was developed in parallel using Wizard Pro with the same set of 20 variables. Results: 1000 patients from KMC Registry were analysed. Cramers V correlation was highest for Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on admission ( ϕ c =0.6), followed by hematoma volume ( ϕ c =0.57). The AUC ROC of the model for good and bad outcome was 0.89 with an accuracy of 85.6%. Confusion matrix predicted 84% patients with good outcome and 87% with poor outcome. Feature importance chart showed that GCS had the highest relative importance at 25.7, followed by hematoma volume and age. A similar model created with simple logistic regression yielded a ROC of 0.87 with comparable results to the machine learning platform. Conclusion: Useful ML models can be easily developed and implemented by clinicians possessing domain expertise using Google Auto ML without computer programming experience.