Prospects for Non-Oil Developing Countries

This paper attempts to systematize factors of the fall in the global oil price in 2014 and discusses potential trajectories of its further dynamics. Examining the effects of supply and demand on the market, similarities are drawn with the fall in the oil price in 1986.

This paper aims to simulate and evaluate the impacts of increases and decreases in oil price on industrial sectors in China. We develop an oil-economy computable general equilibrium (OE-CGE) model with crude oil as an important factor in production. The transmission mechanism of crude oil price swings to various industrial sectors is described in the model. We calibrate parameters in the model parameters using input-output data. In addition, we simulate the rise and fall of oil prices in the model and assess the impact of crude oil prices on various industrial sectors. The results show that crude oil price changes have the greatest impact on the output and consumption of crude oil and gas extraction products sector, crude oil refined coke products, and processed nuclear fuel products sector. The investment of public utilities sector is the most sensitive to changes in crude oil price. When the price of crude oil changes, its investment drops significantly. Crude oil price stability is extremely important for investment and output stability in all sectors.

This paper examines pass‐through of crude oil prices on consumer prices index (CPI) and producer prices index (PPI) in Turkey in the augmented Phillips curve context by applying ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and NARDL (non‐linear ARDL) models. The results show that the effects of volatility in crude oil prices to Turkey’s consumer price index and producer prices index are not symmetrical in the long run. The long‐term effects of the increase in international oil prices consumer price index and producer prices index are higher than the case where international oil prices show reduction. When compared to ARDL model, NARDL model reveals more significant results that are required to consider the asymmetry effect of international oil prices to consumer price index. Moreover, if crude oil prices rise, both indices are affected differently. Therefore, economic authorities in Turkey should adopt different density monetary policy efforts to respond the rise and fall of global oil prices. Focusing on further loosening the control of oil prices and reducing the cartel valuing power of oil enterprises are among the options together with implementing long‐term policies that encourage renewable energy sources.

The outstanding development in the world economy in the early months of this year was the fall in oil prices. But while the broad scale of that fall is clear, it is by no means easy to see in detail what has been happening, as ‘netback’ prices are not generally known and yields of various barter deals are similarly undisclosed. By the middle of April spot prices of Brent and Dubai crude, which can probably be taken as representative for non-OPEC and Persian Gulf oils respectively, were down to around $10-11, rather more than 60 per cent below the level at which they had stood in December before OPEC effectively abandoned its restrictions on prices and production in order to increase its market share. But the fall in the average price at which oil is traded has probably lagged behind the fall in the spot price. There were reports of a substantial volume of business at an effective price of $15-16 per barrel at a time when spot prices were already much lower, and Brent was up again to about $12.50 by the end of the month.

Nigeria’s debt at independent was put at about N488.8 million which was mainly long-term development soft loans. The world economic recession and fall in price of oil in 1982 were identified as major factors that led many countries to debt crisis. Nigeria’s debt accumulated due to gross mismanagement of resources and loans contracted as well as failure of governments to keep-up with repayment schedules. This paper assesses the management of Nigeria’s debt. It examined the role of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) in discussing the politics of Nigeria’s debt management vis-à-vis motivational factor behind consideration for loans, disbursement and at what rate? The paper employed both primary and secondary sources of data. Primary data was sourced from Debt Management Office, National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria and National Institute for Social and Economic Research while secondary data was sourced from journals, books, official government gazettes and internet. Data was analyzed using descriptive method. The result of the analyses revealed that 79% of the respondents agreed that Nigeria’s oil contributed to its huge debt accumulation and denied it debt cancellation. Also 65% believed that government has been prudent in managing the nation’s debt with every action taking in the interest of the people even when it failed to keep up with repayment schedules. The dependency theory formed the basis of discussion and analyses in this work. It concluded that, oil was a major factor behind the granting of loans to Nigeria as well as responsible for fiscal irresponsibility on part of the government which led to the failure of efficient management of such loans. This paper recommended that there should be prudent management of the economy while all forms of corruption must be eradicated to bring about real development.

This paper looks at Tourism as a Sector that can contribute substantially to the growth of Nigeria economy especially in this era where everyone is calling for diversification of the economy, resource control, restructuring and true federalism. It is of common knowledge that our dependence on oil as a country is no longer sustainable because of the fall in price of oil in the international market and the domestic problems of oil theft, pipeline vandalization and militancy of the youths in the oil communities. More importantly, oil is a wasting asset that is being depleted every day. It is therefore the thrust of this paper that if our tourism sector in Nigeria can be developed and well branded, Nigeria can make a lot of money from it, like Israel, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirate. The research method used in this paper is the doctrinal method of research.

Twelve years after the first oil shock, the fall in oil price appears as a logical consequence of the sharp mutations that occured in the international oil market since the begining of the 80's. The reduction of demand for OPEC oil was in a paradoxical way evicting producers with main oil reserves and lower production costs from the market. Saudi Arabia and its allies of the Gulf put an end to this absurd situation by launching a war price in december 1985. By boosting oil demand in OECD countries and reducing non OPEC oil production, the drop in oil price might give the Golf producers a new control of the market, the effects of which would appear at the begining of next decade. This new strategy, hardly accepted by the other members of the organization, doesn't serve the interest of the third world taken as a whole. Areas mostly hurt by the crisis since 1980 — Africa and Latin America — are, even excluding OPEC countries, oil net exporters. Globally, non OPEC LDC's were oil autosufficient in 1985. For highly indebted oil exporting countries, the losses in oil export receipts will be hardly balanced by the expected decrease in international interest rate. The increase in OECD economic growth rate due to the sharp improvement in the industrial countries terms of trade will benefit mainly to the New Industrialized Countries. Those few countries, which depend strongly on oil imports, will take the greatest advantage from the redistribution of import capacity between LDC's. This will reinforce the heterogeneity of the Third World. This new conjoncture could be destabilizing for the international credit system. The decrease in external assests of OPEC countries, which had been feeding the growing LDC's debt during the 70's, affects the bank's loan capacity while loan demand from most highly indebted countries tends to increase. Under such conditions, financial proposals of the Baker plan seem quite insufficient.

Responses of monetary policies to oil price changes in Malaysia

Iran–US relations – strained at the best of times since the 1979 Iranian revolution – have never been worse than during the past six years, due to the much more intense interaction between the two ...

Oil Project Selection by Metrics

The Ups and Downs of Oil

The price of oil: Lower and upper bounds

High oil prices have once again led to large external surpluses of oil exporting countries, similar to the 1970s and 1980s. This paper analyzes the extent to which (i) oil exporters use bank deposits to invest these surpluses, and (ii) banks are lending on these funds to emerging market economies. Bank recycling of petro dollars to emerging market economies is found to be almost as important as in the 1970s and 1980s, even though during the current boom, petro dollar bank flows tend to originate in countries like Russia, Libya, or Nigeria rather than in the Middle East. As one consequence, a fall in oil prices could yet again disrupt financing flows to emerging economies. Especially at risk could be countries that rely heavily on bank loans to finance external deficits, many of them in Emerging Europe.

Oil Project Selection by Metrics

In recent years Indonesia has been viewed as a model of successful macroeconomic adjustment. As a petroleum exporter, the economy was protected to a large extent from the unfavourable economic shocks and the subsequent decline in world trade which hurt many developing countries in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Following the fall in oil prices in the early 1980s, the economy’s dependence on oil was substantially reduced largely through the introduction of a number of stabilisation and adjustment reforms aimed at diversifying the manufacturing sector and to some extent ‘liberalising’2 conditions of trade and production in the manufacturing sector. The agility with which the economy adjusted during the mid 1980s has been remarkable. Manufacturing exports and output growth have been vibrant and, over the adjustment period (from 1985 onwards), there has been some evidence of an overall reduction in poverty (Thorbecke, 1992).