Real Estate Risk: Appraisal Capture

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to present a practice briefing in the form of a user’s manual for Excel-based simulation of real estate risk. Based on a generic discounted cash flow model, the simulation incorporates the often ignored heavy tail behaviour of real estate investments, and consolidates Jensen’s inequality. The briefing attempts to explain a model that permits the user to decide whether to include extreme events in real estate risk modelling and how extreme these events may be. Practitioners can generate a variety of modelling outcomes and then choose risk comfort zones in which to contemplate a range of returns.Design/methodology/approach– The paper provides an overview of the underlying mathematical concepts and challenges, as well as on the perspectives on their application from the current academic literature. It offers a step-by-step walk-through of the Excel model (the model being downloadable at:www.mathestate.com).Findings– Existing models for real estate risk modelling fall short with respect to realistic simulation of the probability of extreme events due to challenges in the implementation of stable laws. These former barriers to the implementation of stable laws have been overcome by providing a unique combination of Excel-resident functionalities with a stable pseudo random number generator.Research limitations/implications– Investment advisers no longer need expensive add-ins to estimate risk. The presented Excel model is more robust than common approaches as it considers distribution shapes that are not otherwise easily available. The only apparent limitation is that users need to be familiar with the most basic functionality of Excel.Practical implications– Practitioners are provided with an easy-to-use Excel model that does not require further software add-ins. The model simulates real estate investment returns, based on a more realistic inclusion of risk behaviour. It allows specifying how much extreme value behaviour characterizes the volatility in future projections modelled to guide investment decisions.Social implications– Risk is a cost to society. Many recent news events demonstrate the importance of including extreme values in modelling. The paper attempts to contribute to more realistic risk estimation in real estate investment.Originality/value– This briefing introduces a real estate risk simulation model that includes using stable laws, using Excel, a familiar and widely used platform. Such a model has not previously been reported in the academic or practitioners’ literature.

Real Estate as Part of an Investment Portfolio in Australia

Although it is well known that there are many sources of risks in real estate investments, particularly in commercial real estate investments, the works are frequently commenced without consideration of risk resources and uncertainties in the project evaluation and investment decision making processes. The nature and impact on investment value of environmental, economic, real estate sector, and project risks are observed to vary from the beginning of the project development process until the end of it. Dynamic methods are often used in commonplace feasibility studies and integration of risks to calculations and periodically updating feasibility analyses are found to be usually neglected. However, project-specific risks such as the ownership of land, land development rights, and demands of the owners of neighboring parcels and economic risks directly affect the feasibility of the investment and can be major sources of failure.In this study, risk perceptions of upper middle managers of large-scale real estate development companies were evaluated and risk management approaches implemented within the companies were discussed. The scope of the study was limited to companies that are members of the Turkish Contractors Association (TCA), to which only the biggest real estate firms of Turkey can be members, and members of other important associations. In the construction and real estate market, two of the most important sectors in the Turkish economy, members of the TCA realize 70%of construction works within the country and 90%of the works undertaken by Turkish contractors abroad and have the ability to represent the industry. In this study, the impact of risk according to its resources on the preparation and implementation of real estate projects and risk perceptions of managers were examined based on the responses received to the questions electronically sent to the members of the TCA and other important associations. The study results revealed that that developers carry out risk management and decision support system activities, use intuitive risk analysis methods, utilize risks in integrated decision-making processes and the risk items that the developers consider are identified. According to the study results, sales forecasts, and the changes in foreign exchange and interest rates are significant in risk management in line with academic studies.

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Market Risk of Real Estate

New perspectives and frontiers were highlighted in a Special Issue on “Real Estate Economics, Finance and Investments”. The twenty-eight papers that were selected and published emanated from scholars from universities all over the world with the aim to represent more recent advances in building management, mass appraisal methods, real estate risk management, economic evaluation of real estate investment projects, real estate market, property, social housing, real estate economics, real estate finance, building transformation and economic effects on environment. These papers helped to determine a unique and valuable opportunity to experiment with multiple approaches to these ever more crucial topics. This note proposes a brief review of the twenty-eight papers, concluding with some reflections about policy, practice and research on real estate issues.

The researcher combines his personal case study with a literature review to present his real estate investment model, exploring commercial and residential real estate investment opportunities and risks in the current market economy. The main premise of the model is that using financial acumen and systems models as the approach to investing in real estate provides the opportunity for high rates of return due to a variety of innate factors. The model explores the risks and opportunities of investing by: a) The use of leverage in property acquisitions; b) Accessing significant IRS tax advantages for investors, including the use of depreciation schedules, cost segregation models, 1031 tax-deferred exchanges, and tax-free cash-out refinancing. Risks in residential and commercial real estate can result from internal factors within the owner’s control or be caused by external factors beyond the investor’s control. AI, machine learning, and dynamic factor models for real estate investment are explored.

Executive Summary. Real estate accounts for a significant proportion of the corporate assets of publicly listed companies. The real estate exposure of publicly traded companies in land scare economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore is particularly high. This study explores the real estate exposure of listed companies in Singapore where non-real estate companies are classified by their real estate asset intensity. A six-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model, capturing changes in real estate prices, industrial production, expected inflation, unanticipated inflation, risk premium and term structure, shows that real estate exposure is priced. In addition, the real estate risk premium is found to vary across companies with different real estate asset intensity. A close linkage is also established between real estate exposure and various industries. Other than the real estate-intensive industries such as real estate, hotel and construction, conglomerates and financial companies also have a high exposure to real estate. Interestingly, our analysis shows that real estate exposure, which is computationally tedious to determine, can be proxied by real estate asset intensity, a simple accounting measure. The implications for portfolio management in a land-scare market are examined.

Spatial decision support systems for effective ex-ante risk evaluation: An innovative model for improving the real estate redevelopment processes

Bank Risk Factors and Changing Risk Exposures of Banks: Capital Market Evidence Before and During the Financial Crisis

Real estate is an important asset class, but what specifically does real estate contribute to improve diversified stock–bond portfolios? The author decomposes real estate investment trust returns into their factor betas to show that real estate is a hybrid asset class, with returns explained by a rich mix of compensated risk factors plus uncompensated sector risk. He shows that the same is true for private real estate, but with the additional contribution to risk from misappraisals. It is the rich mix of common factors contained in real estate that can improve the Sharpe ratios of diversified, multiasset portfolios. He discusses the implications for asset allocation from the perspectives of mean–variance optimization of asset classes, the capital asset pricing model with efficient markets, and factor-based asset allocation. <b>TOPICS:</b>Real estate, portfolio construction

The real estate market is an important element of the system of market relations, acting not only as an object of ownership, but also as an object of investment. Real estate investments are one of the key aspects of ensuring the functioning of the economic system and have a multiplicative effect. The article substantiates the role of real estate investments as the most important catalyst for economic development. The structure and dynamics of investments in commercial real estate were analyzed, which led to the conclusion that the overall increase in the volume of investments in this market is accompanied by a reduction in the share of foreign capital in investments. Various forms of investment are considered and their distinctive features are investigated in the context of the fundamental characteristic features of each of the forms. Special attention is paid to investment decisions related to investments in real estate and implemented using financial market instruments. Based on a number of characteristics, the presented forms of investment were compared, their profitability, growth prospects and possible risks were determined. Based on the analysis, the directions of investment strategies in the real estate market are formulated, which are relevant in the current market conditions.

At present, the importance of green finance in the world market is becoming increasingly prominent. Various kinds of green products have emerged, and auxiliary policies have also come into being. China is one of the world's largest carbon dioxide emissions and the world's largest investor in new energy. In the face of severe environmental problems and challenges of sustainable development, the Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of green finance, and has adopted a series of positive policy documents and guidance, including the establishment of special funds, providing preferential fiscal and tax policies, and the establishment of a green bond market to promote its role in the financial system. In addition, China has set up a set of green financial standards and evaluation system to guide financial institutions and enterprises to be more transparent and sustainable in environmental risk management and green investment.&#x0D; The emergence of green finance has brought a certain impact on the real estate industry, a pillar industry of China's economy. At present, many people in China, especially in some central cities, have speculated on housing prices. This behavior has led to a speculative increase in the real estate market, a rapid rise in housing prices, an excessive consumption of resources, and the aggravation of social inequality. This conflicts the concept of sustainable development and environmental friendliness advocated by green finance. At the same time, the investment in green finance will squeeze out a part of the real estate market share. By directing investment in real estate to the flow of green buildings and energy conservation technologies, green finance can also promote the efficient use of resources and sustainable environmental development.&#x0D; Therefore, it is of great significance to deeply study the impact of green finance on real estate. By discussing the application of green finance in the real estate field, effective ways can be found to reduce the consumption of resources in the real estate industry, improve the energy efficiency of buildings, promote the development of green buildings, and guide China's real estate market towards the direction of sustainable development in practice. This is of great practical significance for realizing the dual goal of economic growth and environmental protection.&#x0D; Previous scholars have discussed a wide range of factors affecting real estate, including the monetary system, consumption level and so on. The related discussion on green finance also focuses on the impact of the ecological environment and some green products on the financial market. No scholar has specifically discussed the impact of green finance on real estate as a whole.&#x0D; Therefore, in order to ensure that the regression results are not affected by the economic turbulence during the epidemic period, this paper selects the relevant data of provinces and cities from 2008 to 2020 to regression the fixed effect model panel, conducts a study on the real estate price, and draws the following basic conclusions: green finance has a negative impact on the real estate price.&#x0D; The marginal contribution of this paper is the use of various green coefficient to build green financial index, to explore the influence of green finance as a whole, and make up the green finance influence the lack of the real estate research, to solve the current real estate investment market proportion and rising prices put forward new slow problems.&#x0D; The chapters of this paper are arranged as follows: the second part is the literature review, the third part is the experimental design and data, the fourth part is the empirical results, the fifth part is the robustness test, and the sixth part is the conclusion and policy suggestions.

PurposeThe upward rise of the prolonged payback period and the inability of the project to generate estimated income that has been linked with the irregular rent payments has been a major problem confronting real estate investment. Given the fact that real estate investment is a risky investment venture with a highly uncertain future stream of income, this paper examines the effectiveness of rent recovery strategies in the emerging Nigeria residential real estate practice.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed an exploratory research design. The study identified the five recovery strategies adopted by the estate surveying and valuation firms in Ibadan Metropolis, Nigeria. The study adopts a purposive sampling method to select 52 registered estate firms in the study area and a questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale was used to elicit information. The data obtained were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics.FindingsThe result showed that the rent recovery strategies adopted by the respondents include email approach, rent reminder notice, adequate maintenance, eviction notice and dialogue approach. The perceived top-rated strategies that could influence estimated income were dialogue and rent reminder notice. Also, the findings showed the factors that influence the choice of strategy are property type, company policy and the proportion of rent to the tenant's income.Practical implicationsThe study has an implication for real estate investors and property practitioners regarding the willingness of the investors to invest in real estate investment.Originality/valueThis paper is relevant given the fact that the rental property market is prone to risk that could impede the regular streamflow of income. This serves as a need for examination of the effectiveness of adopted rent recovery strategies as it relates to real estate property management practice and investment viability.

This chapter explores real estate crowdfunding and describes advantages and disadvantages. It argues that crowdfunding can become a popular and attractive way to invest in real estate, and at the same time provide capital for new real estate projects. The chapter identifies important issues, and describes advantages and disadvantages of emerging phenomenon, which are represented thereinafter. It provides advantages and disadvantages of real estate crowdfunding which can serve as a basis for future research and analysis in comparison with various real estate financing instruments and investment possibilities. The chapter explains the main advantages and disadvantages of the new investment and financing alternative for real estate projects. It shows that different methods of financing development have different outcomes and consequences, and call on future researchers to explore the potential impact of this new concept on the economy as whole.