Real estate risk: heavy tail modelling using Excel

Building for a better hospital. Value-adding management & design of healthcare real estate

Real estate has always been an important asset class. Massive investment in real estate since the financial crisis 2008 has pushed the demand for integrated and micro-based risk modeling. The data for such risk management is available to banks and other investors, but is not structured and therefore not model-ready. Appraisals are available as printouts as well as pdf files, but the relevant data is only available in semi-structured form and differs by appraisal. A central issue in integrated real estate risk management consists of transferring the relevant information from appraisals into a risk management environment without too much unnecessary human effort. The goal of this article is to describe an approach to identifying and extracting existing semi-structured appraisal information into structured information ready to be consumed by risk models and other applications.

Market Risk of Real Estate

The researcher combines his personal case study with a literature review to present his real estate investment model, exploring commercial and residential real estate investment opportunities and risks in the current market economy. The main premise of the model is that using financial acumen and systems models as the approach to investing in real estate provides the opportunity for high rates of return due to a variety of innate factors. The model explores the risks and opportunities of investing by: a) The use of leverage in property acquisitions; b) Accessing significant IRS tax advantages for investors, including the use of depreciation schedules, cost segregation models, 1031 tax-deferred exchanges, and tax-free cash-out refinancing. Risks in residential and commercial real estate can result from internal factors within the owner’s control or be caused by external factors beyond the investor’s control. AI, machine learning, and dynamic factor models for real estate investment are explored.

Although it is well known that there are many sources of risks in real estate investments, particularly in commercial real estate investments, the works are frequently commenced without consideration of risk resources and uncertainties in the project evaluation and investment decision making processes. The nature and impact on investment value of environmental, economic, real estate sector, and project risks are observed to vary from the beginning of the project development process until the end of it. Dynamic methods are often used in commonplace feasibility studies and integration of risks to calculations and periodically updating feasibility analyses are found to be usually neglected. However, project-specific risks such as the ownership of land, land development rights, and demands of the owners of neighboring parcels and economic risks directly affect the feasibility of the investment and can be major sources of failure.In this study, risk perceptions of upper middle managers of large-scale real estate development companies were evaluated and risk management approaches implemented within the companies were discussed. The scope of the study was limited to companies that are members of the Turkish Contractors Association (TCA), to which only the biggest real estate firms of Turkey can be members, and members of other important associations. In the construction and real estate market, two of the most important sectors in the Turkish economy, members of the TCA realize 70%of construction works within the country and 90%of the works undertaken by Turkish contractors abroad and have the ability to represent the industry. In this study, the impact of risk according to its resources on the preparation and implementation of real estate projects and risk perceptions of managers were examined based on the responses received to the questions electronically sent to the members of the TCA and other important associations. The study results revealed that that developers carry out risk management and decision support system activities, use intuitive risk analysis methods, utilize risks in integrated decision-making processes and the risk items that the developers consider are identified. According to the study results, sales forecasts, and the changes in foreign exchange and interest rates are significant in risk management in line with academic studies.

Executive Summary. Real estate accounts for a significant proportion of the corporate assets of publicly listed companies. The real estate exposure of publicly traded companies in land scare economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore is particularly high. This study explores the real estate exposure of listed companies in Singapore where non-real estate companies are classified by their real estate asset intensity. A six-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model, capturing changes in real estate prices, industrial production, expected inflation, unanticipated inflation, risk premium and term structure, shows that real estate exposure is priced. In addition, the real estate risk premium is found to vary across companies with different real estate asset intensity. A close linkage is also established between real estate exposure and various industries. Other than the real estate-intensive industries such as real estate, hotel and construction, conglomerates and financial companies also have a high exposure to real estate. Interestingly, our analysis shows that real estate exposure, which is computationally tedious to determine, can be proxied by real estate asset intensity, a simple accounting measure. The implications for portfolio management in a land-scare market are examined.

Spatial decision support systems for effective ex-ante risk evaluation: An innovative model for improving the real estate redevelopment processes

Bank Risk Factors and Changing Risk Exposures of Banks: Capital Market Evidence Before and During the Financial Crisis

Real Estate as Part of an Investment Portfolio in Australia

The continued growth of the equity REIT market depends critically on investors' belief that the stock market provides fair and accurate valuations of real estate. An index of real estate stocks traded on the New York and American stock exchanges reflects changes in real estate market fundamentals in a more timely fashion than a widely used appraisal-based system. The index includes equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), real estate operating companies not organized in trust form, land subdividers and commercial developers, and general contractors. A statistical examination of the relation between the stock-based and appraisal-based series finds that the lagged returns of the real estate stocks help explain the behavior of the current-period appraisal series. The stock market apparently impounds information about changes in real estate values in a more timely manner than appraisal-based series constrained by infrequent property appraisals. oth practitioners and academics have become increasingly interested in the risks and returns of real estate ownership. In the absence of a centralized exchange to record sales, appraisal-based data such as the Russell-NCREIF Property Index (RNPI) are often used to analyze real estate returns. Such appraisal-based series are imperfect proxies for actual market conditions, however, largely because property valuations occur infrequently (quarterly at best), so appraisal-based series contain stale prices.1 This shortcoming has been highlighted recently by the failure of appraisal-based return indexes to capture either the timing or the magnitude of the recent dramatic downturn in commercial real estate markets. This article presents and analyzes the return behavior of a stock-market-based index of real estate performance. The index is composed of real-estate-related equities traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and Amex). The firms in the index include owner-operators of existing properties as well as developers. Previous real estate research has primarily examined the returns of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs). That work generated two findings of particular relevance to this article. First, there is no significant contemporaneous correlation between equity REIT and appraisal series returns. Second, equity REIT returns are significantly positively correlated with broader stock market returns such as the SP real estate stock prices more accurately captured the industry downturn in the late 1980s than the well-known RNPI series. Despite the lack of a contemporaneous relation between appraisal and stock series, we conclude that there is an important connection between the two. This conclusion is based on a statistically and economically significant relation between lagged real estate stock returns and current-period returns on the appraisalbased RNPI. The evidence indicates that the two series incorporate similar information about real estate fundamentals, but the stock-based index does so in a more timely manner.

New perspectives and frontiers were highlighted in a Special Issue on “Real Estate Economics, Finance and Investments”. The twenty-eight papers that were selected and published emanated from scholars from universities all over the world with the aim to represent more recent advances in building management, mass appraisal methods, real estate risk management, economic evaluation of real estate investment projects, real estate market, property, social housing, real estate economics, real estate finance, building transformation and economic effects on environment. These papers helped to determine a unique and valuable opportunity to experiment with multiple approaches to these ever more crucial topics. This note proposes a brief review of the twenty-eight papers, concluding with some reflections about policy, practice and research on real estate issues.

Climate change exacerbates flood hazards, resulting in risks to real estate values that should be considered by long-term investors. Flood risk presents two major financial risks: market risk and credit risk. Market risk refers to potential property value loss, and credit risk increases the likelihood of mortgage defaults. However, methods and comprehensive data for quantifying global real estate flood risks are lacking. To address this problem, this paper proposes two flood risk assessment frameworks: the local-oriented approach (LOA) and global-oriented approach (GOA). Two hazard and three vulnerability assessment methods are also introduced to support these frameworks. The LOA vulnerability estimates of regions with complete records are required to support the GOA. Taiwan was selected as an example for the LOA assessment, and the results were used to estimate vulnerability overseas in GOA assessments. The results of case studies for buildings located in four cities in different countries were compared. The proposed framework enables investors and asset owners to globally quantify climate risks in real estate, even when the available data are incomplete. Users can choose the most appropriate approach on the basis of the available data and their tolerance for uncertainty.

This paper is an exploratory study into the performance effects of corporate real estate (CRE) ownership for retail companies in the US. In the recent years, many brick-and-mortar retail stores have announced massive closings (as announced in 2018, 142 Sears locations will be closed, while Toys “R” Us filed for bankruptcy and announced shutting down all 800 locations). These struggles, along with the rise of e-commerce, signal significant changes in the CRE strategies for retail firms going forward. According to Gibson and Barkham (2001), CRE is closely linked to the business strategy of companies in the retail sector. As retail companies seek to assemble valuable CRE portfolios that can generate sustainable competitive advantages, inferior or inefficient locations can significantly undermine their long-term financial performance. On one hand, portfolio theory suggests that if real estate assets have a different risk profile than that of the operating business, then CRE ownership has the potential to provide diversification benefit to firms with high levels of property holdings. On the other hand, Tuzel (2010) has asserted that real estate risk is systematic, and CRE investment is riskier than investment in other types of capital for the firm due to slow depreciation of real estate. Therefore, firms with high real estate holdings are hurt more during recessions (Tuzel, 2010). For these reasons, CRE ownership has the potential to significantly impact the performance of retail companies.

Impact of Institutional Investors on Real Estate Risk

Chapter 6 - Uncertainty: Risk in real estate