Revitalizing Stock Predictions with Machine Learning Algorithms – An Empirical Study

Recent advances in machine learning techniques have significantly influenced the development of early diabetes detection systems. In this paper, different machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed for diabetes detection based on hand movement. The spatial and temporal information for horizontal and vertical hand movement deviations for both diabetic and non-diabetic subjects are obtained using a data acquisition system. A dataset is constructed based on the obtained hand movement information along with other related attributes such as age, gender, weight and vision health. Binary classification of diabetic and non-diabetic subjects is achieved using several machine learning algorithms. These algorithms include Naïve Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminate Analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). The considered ML algorithms are evaluated and ranked according to a set of key performance metrics that include accuracy, precision, recall and F-1 score. Algorithm ranking results demonstrate that LR, CART, KNN and MLP algorithms have achieved higher ranking positions as compared to other algorithms. The best ranked ML algorithms are then validated and thoroughly investigated to prove their ability to discriminate between diabetic and non-diabetic subjects. Validation results show that the best-ranked ML algorithms have achieved high classification accuracy, precision, recall and F-1 scores. Therefore, the considered machine learning algorithms can serve as efficient tools for diabetes detection based on the constructed dataset.

An assessment of machine learning algorithms for healthcare analysis based on improved MapReduce

This paper analyses the recent evolution of the electricity price of one of the EastEuropean countries’ Balancing Markets (BM) – Romania, aiming to understand the prices trend and predict them in the current economic and geopolitical context. This is especially important as the electricity producers have to allocate their output between wholesale electricity market, ancillary services markets and BM targeting to maximize value and achieve a sustainable economic development. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an AI-powered electricity price forecast using several types of standout Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as classifiers and regressors to predict the electricity price on BM. This approach, consisting of two steps, identifies the imbalance sign and significantly enhances the performance of the price forecast. The proposed method offers valuable insights into the market participants’ trading opportunities using two prediction solutions. The first prediction solution consists of averaging the results of five ensemble ML algorithms. The second one consists in weighting the results of the five forecasting ML algorithms using either a linear regression or a decision tree algorithm. Thus, we propose to combine supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms and find the fundamentals for creating optimal bidding strategies for electricity market players.

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

This paper explores the feasibility of machine learning algorithms on nonlinear ultrasonics for classification of the austenitic stainless-steel material subjected to different annealing conditions. The material that is isothermally annealed at 1323 K for different soaking times showed a marginal variation in its nonlinearity parameter at larger mean grain sizes. The grain growth during annealing followed the Arrhenius type equation fairly well, which has been verified using a genetic algorithm approach. The machine learning algorithms are trained using features such as the ratio of the harmonic amplitudes, root-mean-square value, and the phase difference between the fundamental and second harmonic components derived from the nonlinear ultrasonic response. Upon evaluating the performance of decision tree and ensemble learning algorithms in the classification of annealed materials, it was observed that the LPBoost classifier has the highest accuracy of 97%. According to the results, it is concluded that a machine learning strategy based on a minimal number of features can effectively classify specimens that are otherwise indistinguishable in their nonlinear response. This research takes a step forward to the automation of non-destructive testing toward Industrial Revolution 4.0. The results also pointed out the necessity of parameter fusion in non-destructive decision making.

Code smells are generally not considered as bugs; instead, they point out certain shortcomings in the software design or code. Identification of code smell is a necessary step for improving the software quality and reducing the maintenance effort. In this study, we introduce a bad smell prediction technique based on object-oriented software metrics that use Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. An open-source project, namely JHOTDRAW, was used as our dataset, for which values of object-oriented software metrics were calculated. Two feature selection methods-Random Forest Importance (RFI) and Information Gain (IG) were applied to extract the most relevant attributes for the prediction of code smells, namely, Feature envy, Dispersed coupling, refused parent bequest, and God class. The random-search algorithm was used to tune the parameters of Random Forest and Decision Tree. Results show that the best classification accuracy for Decision Tree was obtained at 99.13% for refused parent bequest code smells. Results also show that after using the Random Forest classifier, refused parent bequest smell was predicted with the best accuracy of 99.14%. Finally, in this research study, a set of code smell prediction rules were extracted using Decision Tree.

This paper presents a posture recognition system aimed at detecting sitting postures of a wheelchair user. The main goals of the proposed system are to identify and inform irregular and improper posture to prevent sitting-related health issues such as pressure ulcers, with the potential that it could also be used for individuals without mobility issues. In the proposed monitoring system, an array of 16 screen printed pressure sensor units was employed to obtain pressure data, which are sampled and processed in real-time using read-out electronics. The posture recognition was performed for four sitting positions: right-, left-, forward- and backward leaning based on k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT) and LightGBM machine learning algorithms. As a result, a posture classification accuracy of up to 99.03 percent can be achieved. Experimental studies illustrate that the system can provide real-time pressure distribution value in the form of a pressure map on a standard PC and also on a raspberry pi system equipped with a touchscreen monitor. The stored pressure distribution data can later be shared with healthcare professionals so that abnormalities in sitting patterns can be identified by employing a post-processing unit. The proposed system could be used for risk assessments related to pressure ulcers. It may be served as a benchmark by recording and identifying individuals’ sitting patterns and the possibility of being realized as a lightweight portable health monitoring device.

In the era of artificial intelligence, machine learning methods are successfully used in various fields. Machine learning has attracted extensive attention from investors in the financial market, especially in stock price prediction. However, one argument for the machine learning methods used in stock price prediction is that they are black-box models which are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we focus on the future stock price prediction with the historical stock price by machine learning and deep learning methods, such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Bayesian classifier (BC), decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM), the embedded CNN, and the embedded BiLSTM. Firstly, we manually design several financial time series where the future price correlates with the historical stock prices in pre-designed modes, namely the curve-shape-feature (CSF) and the non-curve-shape-feature (NCSF) modes. In the CSF mode, the future prices can be extracted from the curve shapes of the historical stock prices. Conversely, in the NCSF mode, they can’t. Secondly, we apply various algorithms to those pre-designed and real financial time series. We find that the existing machine learning and deep learning algorithms fail in stock price prediction because in the real financial time series, less information of future prices is contained in the CSF mode, and perhaps more information is contained in the NCSF. Various machine learning and deep learning algorithms are good at handling the CSF in historical data, which are successfully applied in image recognition and natural language processing. However, they are inappropriate for stock price prediction on account of the NCSF. Therefore, accurate stock price prediction is the key to successful investment, and new machine learning algorithms handling the NCSF series are needed.

Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) enables Internet data routing. Hence, its anomalies affect Internet connectivity and cause routing discon-nections, route flaps, and oscillations. Detection of anomalous BGP routing dynamics is a topic of great interest in cybersecurity. In this article, we survey machine learning algorithms for detecting BGP anomalies and intrusions. Gradient boosting decision tree and deep learning algorithms are evaluated by creating models using collected routing records during the WestRock ransomware event. BCPGuard, a BGP anomaly detection tool, has been developed to integrate various stages of the anomaly detection process.

In this paper is presented an experimental study with Data Mining (DM) tools, such as, CMSR Data Miner, KnowledgeSTUDIO and RapidMiner. It is goal to discover at that problems (classification, regression, clustering, association, among others) may be used, including, to verify if can treat Big Data, these tools were applied to three databases: Breast Cancer, Iris and Wine (obtained from the Machine Learning repository from University of California). In the experiments with the CMSR Data Miner tool, the Decision Tree and SOM (Self Organizing Maps) Neural Network algorithms of Data Mining were used. After that, with the KnowledgeSTUDIO tool, Logistic Regression, Deep Learning and K-Means algorithms were used. And finally, with the RapidMiner tool, Decision Tree, Naive Bayes and Deep Learning algorithms of Data Mining were applied. Additionally, it is also with this research aim to decision making by organizational managers, helping them to choose tools from DM more appropriate to their daily work.

The aim of this research is maximizing differentiation quality of skin neoplasms by Raman Spectroscopy (RS) and Autofluorescence (AF) using conventional Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (which means excluding Neural Networks). Thus, a basic task of this research consists of making and testing ML algorithm ensembles on Raman spectra, that were obtained in vivo in Samara Oncology Clinical Center. The data (spectra) have been obtained in a form of text files containing the identifier of a patient, as well as a Raman spectrum in the form of pair values – a wavelength and an appropriate value. All data (964 spectra) has been divided for two classes: Tumor and Skin. Further preprocessing of the input data and the analysis of models of machine learning for a problem of classification have been carried out. We used the following ML tools, namely Python 3.7.3, an open source ML libraries Scikit-learn v0.21.2, NumPy 1.17.0, and Pandas 1.0.1, IDE Anaconda Enterprise 5.3 and cloud service Google Colaboratory with an interactive environment Jupyter Notebook. Machine learning models that show a high accuracy result include Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Support Vector Classification (SVC), Logistic Regression (LR), K-nearest neighbors algorithm (KNN). These classifiers show high quality classification on standard parameters already. The Soft Voting Classification module was selected as an ensemble, that allows us to use several models of classifiers that are not similar to each other at once, combine them into one classifier. Results of this ensemble testing from these ML algorithms showed that the classification accuracy, unlike the best qualifier, has not been increased. However, the metrics of classification quality show that the model has become stabler and steady. Results: specificity - 93%, sensitivity - 88, harmonic mean between precision and recall (F1 score) - 90%. An analysis of validation and training curves indicated a small size of training data and, for some cases, a high complexity of the model, which led to a decrease in the classification accuracy.

Machine learning approach in non-intrusive monitoring of tool wear evolution in massive CFRP automatic drilling processes in the aircraft industry

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.MethodsOur study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).ResultsThe study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18–79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.ConclusionOur study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management.Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills.This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.

To detect unusual infusion alerting patterns using machine learning (ML) algorithms as a first step to advance safer inpatient intravenous administration of high-alert medications. We used one year of detailed propofol infusion data from a hospital. Interpretable and clinically relevant variables were feature engineered, and data points were aggregated per calendar day. A univariate (maximum times-limit) moving range (mr) control chart was used to simulate clinicians' common approach to identifying unusual infusion alerting patterns. Three different unsupervised multivariate ML-based anomaly detection algorithms (Local Outlier Factor, Isolation Forest, and k-Nearest Neighbors) were used for the same purpose. Results from the control chart and ML algorithms were compared. The propofol data had 3,300 infusion alerts, 92% of which were generated during the day shift and seven of which had a times-limit greater than 10. The mr-chart identified 15 alert pattern anomalies. Different thresholds were set to include the top 15 anomalies from each ML algorithm. A total of 31 unique ML anomalies were grouped and ranked by agreeability. All algorithms agreed on 10% of the anomalies, and at least two algorithms agreed on 36%. Each algorithm detected one specific anomaly that the mr-chart did not detect. The anomaly represented a day with 71 propofol alerts (half of which were overridden) generated at an average rate of 1.06 per infusion, whereas the moving alert rate for the week was 0.35 per infusion. These findings show that ML-based algorithms are more robust than control charts in detecting unusual alerting patterns. However, we recommend using a combination of algorithms, as multiple algorithms serve a benchmarking function and allow researchers to focus on data points with the highest algorithm agreeability. Unsupervised ML algorithms can assist clinicians in identifying unusual alert patterns as a first step toward achieving safer infusion practices.

This study presents a comparative analysis of the classification performance of facial and emotion recognition systems using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The primary objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of emotion recognition in fields such as psychotherapy and crime analysis, using the FER-2013 dataset.The study was conducted with ML algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting, as well as the DL algorithm, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Supported by the application of feature selection, preprocessing, and feature extraction techniques, the model’s performance was measured using standard metrics such as accuracy, precision, F1-score, and AUC-ROC.The experimental results showed that the highest classification accuracy (46.61%) was achieved with the CNN model. While the ML models generally offered lower accuracy, they provided advantages in terms of computational efficiency in specific scenarios.This study aims to contribute to the literature by providing a comparative analysis of ML and DL algorithms and by highlighting the effect of data preprocessing on performance. The findings set targets for future work, such as real-time system integration and hybrid model development.