Seismic Reliability Analysis of Complex Structure

Reliability is a critical indicator for evaluating the safety and performance of mechanical structures. Surrogate models are widely employed in reliability analysis to reduce computational costs; however, their accuracy strongly depends on the quality of training samples. This paper proposes an uncertainty and distance-driven sequential sampling deep neural network method (UDDS-DNN) for structural reliability analysis. First, initial training samples were generated from the Monte Carlo population (MCP) using the Minimax sampling strategy. This ensured global coverage of the random variable space. Then, the predictive uncertainty of the DNN was quantified using the Jackknife-based method. The estimated uncertainty, inter-sample distance, and probabilistic characteristics of the input random variables were considered. The adaptive learning function was constructed to guide sequential sample enrichment. The proposed method was validated through two numerical examples and three engineering case studies. Results demonstrated that UDDS-DNN achieves high accuracy and computational efficiency in multivariate, nonlinear, and complex structural reliability problems. The method provided an effective solution for reliability analysis of complex structures using DNN-based sequential sampling.

Monte Carlo Simulation and Response Surface Method are two very powerful reliability analysis methods. Normally, in the reliability analysis of complex structures, the limit state function often can not be expressed in a closed-form. Usually, the codes for probabilistic analysis need to be combined with finite element models. ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) has provided a package to conduct probabilistic analysis automatically. This paper is going to compare the performance of these methods through an easy engineering problem in ANSYS. The results are going to be derived to show the feature of applying the corresponding reliability methods.

PurposeBecause of the high computational efficiency, response surface method (RSM) has been widely used in structural reliability analysis. However, for a highly nonlinear limit state function (LSF), the approximate accuracy of the failure probability mainly depends on the design point, and the result is that the response surface function composed of initial experimental points rarely fits the LSF exactly. The inaccurate design points usually cause some errors in the traditional RSM. The purpose of this paper is to present a hybrid method combining adaptive moving experimental points strategy and RSM, describing a new response surface using downhill simplex algorithm (DSA-RSM).Design/methodology/approachIn DSA-RSM, the operation mechanism principle of the basic DSA, in which local descending vectors are automatically generated, was studied. Then, the search strategy of the basic DSA was changed and the RSM approximate model was reconstructed by combining the direct search advantage of DSA with the reliability mechanism of response surface analysis.FindingsThe computational power of the proposed method is demonstrated by solving four structural reliability problems, including the actual engineering problem of a car collision. Compared to specific structural reliability analysis methods, the approach of modified DSA interpolation response surface for structural reliability has a good convergent capability and computational accuracy.Originality/valueThis paper proposes a new RSM technology based on proxy model to complete the reliability analysis. The originality of this paper is to present an improved RSM that adjusts the position of the experimental points judiciously by using the DSA principle to make the fitted response surface closer to the actual limit state surface.

Dimensionality reduction-based extremum surrogate modeling strategy for transient reliability analysis of complex structures

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to briefly summarize and review the theories and methods of complex structures’ dynamic reliability. Complex structures are usually assembled from multiple components and subjected to time-varying loads of aerodynamic, structural, thermal and other physical fields; its reliability analysis is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of large-scale equipment such as aviation and machinery.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper for the single-objective dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures, the calculation can be categorized into Monte Carlo (MC), outcrossing rate, envelope functions and extreme value methods. The series-parallel and expansion methods, multi-extremum surrogate models and decomposed-coordinated surrogate models are summarized for the multiobjective dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures.FindingsThe numerical complex compound function and turbine blisk are used as examples to illustrate the performance of single-objective and multiobjective dynamic reliability analysis methods. Then the future development direction of dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures is prospected.Originality/valueThe paper provides a useful reference for further theoretical research and engineering application.

This paper outlines a logical process based on Bayesian inference to exploit monitoring observations to improve the accuracy in the reliability estimates of civil structures that are retrofitted during their service lives. The proposed approach is particularly effective for complex structures, whose response prediction is affected by structural parameters with significant uncertainty; typical examples are prestressed concrete bridges, heavily influenced by the inherent uncertainties of the material’s creep and shrinkage. The methodology is applied to a real-life complex bridge in Italy, as opposed to academic problems and laboratory tests; the structural model developed for this study includes the original creep law of the Model B3 proposed by Bazant rather than linear approximation or response surfaces. The Bayesian inference is performed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, while the reliability assessment utilises importance sampling (IS) for computational efficiency. The results show the extent to which structural health monitoring (SHM) and Bayesian inference reduce the uncertainty in structural parameters and the prediction of the structural demand. At the same time, they increase structural reliability. Particular attention is given to computational effort, structural modelling and algorithm optimisation.

An optimization method for learning statistical classifiers in structural reliability

An Active Learning Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel for reliability assessment of marine structures

To improve the efficiency and accuracy of traditional least squares method–based polynomial response surface method (RSM) for reliability analysis of structure, the application of various adaptive metamodeling approaches is notable. The moving least squares method (MLSM)–based RSM is the simplest one and found to be effective in this regard. But, its performance in reliability analysis of structure largely depends on the proper choice of the parameter of weight function involved. In the present study, a generalized scheme to appropriately obtain the hyper-parameter of the MLSM-based RSM to approximate implicit responses of structure for reliability analysis is proposed. The algorithm is hinged on the fact that for reliability analysis, one is interested in the sign of the approximated limit state function (LSF) rather than its magnitude. Thereby, it is sufficient to obtain the hyper-parameter for which the first derivative of the probability of failure as obtained from the approximated LSF with respect to the hyper-parameter is zero. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is elucidated through three numerical examples. The improvement achieved by the proposed MLSM-based RSM has been compared with the reliability results obtained by the MLSM-based RSM considering the commonly recommended value of the hyper-parameter and also by the approach where the parameters are obtained by leave one out cross-validation procedure.

A response-surface-based structural reliability analysis method by using non-probability convex model

Efficient response surface method for high-dimensional structural reliability analysis

Operators wish to understand the condition of their pipelines to manage ongoing integrity. Information on the condition of the pipeline along its entire length can be obtained using in-line inspection (ILI). However, some pipelines cannot be internally inspected due, for example, to tee connections, tight bends, low flow or to a lack of launcher and receiver facilities. The condition of these ‘unpiggable’ lines can sometimes be largely unknown. To aid the understating of the pipeline condition without ILI data, operators will often rely on alternative sources of information, such as localised external inspections, model predictions and company and individual experience. However, there may be significant uncertainty associated with these alternative data sources when using them to assess the condition of the entire pipeline. This uncertainty may be understood by applying a probabilistic approach to the assessment of pipeline integrity using structural reliability analysis (SRA) methods. An SRA approach applies probabilistic input parameters to a failure prediction model for a defined limit state function. Previous IPC papers[1,2,3] have presented guidance on probabilistic assessments to model pipeline failure. Recommended probability distributions are presented which account for uncertainties associated with line pipe properties, defect sizing and the error associated with the predicted failure model. However, there is little published guidance readily available on recommended defect characteristic distributions specific to internal corrosion features. Parameter distributions are recommended for defect sizing based on empirical data, which are mainly used for external corrosion features. In this paper, a case study is used to present a practical application of an SRA methodology for assessment of pipeline integrity with respect to internal corrosion. Discussion is presented on alternative sources of information for the assessment when ILI data is unavailable, including targeted external inspections of unpiggable lines and data sets from comparable piggable lines. Probability distributions are derived from the available inspection data for the internal corrosion feature size and corrosion rate input parameters to the SRA. Probabilistic analysis is used to account for the expected population of unknown features in the uninspected parts of the pipelines. The expected feature size, corrosion rate and feature density calculated are used in the SRA to estimate the total probability of failure due to internal corrosion over time for the entire length of the pipeline. Recommendations are provided on the application of an SRA methodology to assess pipeline failure due to internal corrosion.

A mixture distribution with fractional moments for efficient seismic reliability analysis of nonlinear structures

A new bivariate dimension reduction method for efficient structural reliability analysis

In this paper, a surrogate‐based iterative importance sampling (IS) method is proposed to efficiently evaluate failure probability (FP) of engineering structures. The surrogate is constructed by the training points centered at the most probable failure point (MPP), which is estimated by an approximate algorithm without any additional evaluations of the real limit state function (LSF), and the IS method using the estimated MPP is further obtained; and an iterative procedure combined with the surrogate and the IS method is finally proposed to improve the accuracy of the estimated result for the FP. Three numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method, and further, an inside flap of an aircraft is employed to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed method in engineering problems. The results show that the reasonable estimated result of the FP within the range of 10−3‐10−5 can be evaluated by the proposed method with only hundreds of the evaluations of the real LSF.