SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC OUTPUT ENERGY FORECASTING USING LINEAR REGRESSION AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Globally, wind energy if properly harnessed, could serve as a source of energy generation in Africa. This study compared the performance of two Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Linear regression and Random Forest) in predicting wind speed in five major cities in Africa (Yaoundé, Pretoria, Nairobi, Cairo and Abuja). Wind data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2022, using the Solar Radiation Data Archive. The data preprocessing was carried out with 80% of the data used for training and 20% for validation. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The result shows that Nairobi (3.814795 m/s) closely followed by Cairo (3.606453 m/s) has the highest mean wind speed while Yaoundé (1.090512 m/s) has the lowest. Based on the performance metrics used, the two Machine Learning algorithms were competitive. Still, the Linear Regression (LR) algorithm outperformed the Random Forest Algorithm in predicting wind speed in all the selected major African cities. In Yaoundé (RMSE = 0.3892, MAE= 0.3001, MAPE =0.5030), Pretoria (RMSE=1.2339, MAE=0.9480, MAPE=0.7450) Nairobi (RMSE= 0.4223, MAE =0.6499, MAPE =0.1872), Nairobi (RMSE=0.6499, MAE=0.5171, MAPE =0.1872), Cairo (RMSE =1.0909, MAE =0.8544, MAPE =0.3541) and Abuja (RMSE = 0.70245, MAE =0.5441, MAPE= 0.4515) the Linear regression algorithms was found to outperformed Random Forest Regression. Therefore, the Linear regression algorithm is more reliable in predicting wind speed compared with the Random Forest regression.

The aim of this study is to assess the possibility of forecasting water level fluctuations in a relatively small (<100 km2), post-glacial lake located in a temperate climate zone by means of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression. The area of study was Lake Serwy, located in northeastern Poland. Two artificial neural network (ANN) multilayer perceptron (MLP) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models were built. The following explanatory variables were considered: maximal and minimal temperature (Tmax, Tmin) wind speed (WS), vertical circulation (VC) and water level from previous periods (WL). Additionally, a binary variable describing the period of the year (winter, summer) has been considered in one of the two MLP and MLR models. The forecasting models have been assessed based on selected criteria: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean biased error. Considering their values and absolute deviations from observed values it was concluded that the ANN model using an additional binary variable (MLP_B+) has the best forecasting performance. Absolute deviations from observed values were the determining factor which made this model the most efficient. In the case of the MLP_B+ model, those values were about 10% lower than in other models. The conducted analyses indicated good performance of ANN networks as a forecasting tool for relatively small lakes located in temperate climate zones. It is acknowledged that they enable water level forecasting with greater precision and lower absolute deviations than the use of multiple linear regression models.

Nighttime high-power aircraft engine run-ups represent a critical operational activity with potential implications for airport management and environmental assessment; yet, their quantitative prediction remains limited in existing literature. The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a data-driven machine learning framework capable of accurately predicting nighttime high-power engine run-up characteristics using historical operational data. A supervised learning methodology is adopted using an open-access dataset comprising approximately 860 nighttime run-up records. The proposed framework includes data preprocessing, temporal feature engineering (month, season, and quarter), exploratory data analysis, correlation assessment, and comparative model development using Linear Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and an Artificial Neural Network (multilayer perceptron). Model performance is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error, supported by predicted-versus-actual comparisons and learning-curve analysis. The results demonstrate that ensemble-based models outperform linear and neural network approaches, with XGBoost achieving the highest predictive accuracy on the testing dataset (R² ≈ 0.90, RMSE ≈ 2.15). Learning curves further indicate stable validation performance with increasing training data size. The proposed machine learning framework provides a structured and data-driven approach for predicting nighttime high-power aircraft engine run-up activity within the analyzed operational dataset, offering a valuable analytical tool for data-driven assessment of airport ground operations.

Nowadays , nonlinear time series and artificial neural networks (ANN) models are used for forecasting in the field of business, agriculture and soon. Recent studies have shown, ANN have been successfully used for forecasting of financial and agriculture data series The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. ANN have more advantages that can approximate to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series, they are not able to handling both structures equally well. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two ANN models namely, Radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and Elman recurrent neural networks (ERNN) methods were applied to Hyderabad airport traffic data. The data obtained for 15 years from 2002–2003 to 2016–2017 about domestic and international passenger of International Airport of Hyderabad, India. In this research paper, we compared the performances of ARIMA, RBFNN and ERNN were based on three measures: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that RBFNN obtained the smallest MAE, MAPE and RMSE in both the modeling and forecasting processes. The performances of the three models ranked in ascending order were: ARIMA, ERNN and the RBFNN model. Keywords: T ime series, forecasting, artificial neural networks, ARIMA models, radial basis function neural networks, and Elman recurrent neural networks Cite this Article R. Ramakrishna, Berhe Aregay, Tewodros Gebregergs. The Comparison in Time Series Forecasting of Air Traffic Data by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Radial Basis Function and Elman Recurrent Neural Networks. Research & Reviews: Journal of Statistics . 2018; 7(3): 75–90p.

본 연구는 Deep Neural Network(DNN)을 이용하여 광주-기아 챔피언스 필드의 일일 관중 수를 예측함으로써 이를 통해 구단과 관련기업의 마케팅 자료제공 및 구장 내 부대시설의 재고관리에 자료로 쓰임을 목적으로 수행 되었다. 본 연구 에서는 Artificial Neural Network(ANN)의 종류인 DNN 모델을 이용하였으며 DNN 모델의 과적합을 막기 위해 Dropout 과 Batch normalization 적용한 모델을 바탕으로 총 4종류를 설계하였다. 각각 10개의 DNN을 만들어 예측값의 Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)와 Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)의 평균값을 낸 모델과 예측값의 평균으로 RMSE와 MAPE를 평가한 Ensemble 모델을 만들었다. 모델의 학습 데이터는 2008년부터 2017년까지의 관중 수 데이터를 수집하여 수집된 데이터의 80%를 무작위로 선정하였으며, 나머지 20%는 테스트 데이터로 사용하였다. 총 100회의 데이터 선정, 모델구성 그리고 학습 및 예측을 한 결과 Ensemble 모델은 DNN 모델의 예측력이 가장 우수하게 나왔으며, 다중선 형회귀 모델 대비 RMSE는 15.17%, MAPE는 14.34% 높은 예측력을 보이고 있다.In this paper, we used the Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict the number of daily spectators of Gwangju -KIA Champions Field in order to provide marketing data for the team and related businesses and for managing the inventories of the facilities in the stadium. In this study, the DNN model, which is based on an artificial neural network (ANN), was used, and four kinds of DNN model were designed along with dropout and batch normalization model to prevent overfitting. Each of four models consists of 10 DNNs, and we added extra models with ensemble model. Each model was evaluated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The learning data from the model randomly selected 80% of the collected data from 2008 to 2017, and the other 20% were used as test data. With the result of 100 data selection, model configuration, and learning and prediction, we concluded that the predictive power of the DNN model with ensemble model is the best, and RMSE and MAPE are 15.17% and 14.34% higher, correspondingly, than the prediction value of the multiple linear regression model.

The estimation of the power values obtained from photovoltaic (PV) systems is of critical importance for the reliable and economical use of solar energy panels. This estimation affects many processes, starting from the installation phase of solar panels to guiding electricity companies, energy management, and distribution. At the same time, it is necessary to detect the adaptations of solar panels in a timely manner and reach the optimal production capacity to provide the most efficient energy production. In this context, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to estimate the power values obtained from PV panels. In this study, heuristic algorithms such as Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA), Ant Colony Optimization, and Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) were used to estimate the power values obtained from monocrystalline and polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. In the verification of the estimation results, the most common statistical evaluation criteria, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Variance (R2) equations were used. The estimation values made with the PSO algorithm were the closest to the real values. 98.95% estimation was achieved in monocrystalline photovoltaic solar panels and 93.94% in polycrystalline photovoltaic solar panels.

Predicting dam inflow is critical for human life safety, water resource management, and hydroelectric power generation. While machine learning (ML) models address complex, nonlinear hydrological problems, quantum machine learning (QML) offers greater potential to overcome classical computational limits. This study compares a hybrid quantum neural network (HQNN) with the following two classical models: bidirectional CNN-LSTM and support vector regression (SVR). These models were evaluated to predict monthly inflow to the Mile Mughan Dam, a transboundary hydroelectric and irrigation dam located on the Aras River between Azerbaijan and Iran, using a 14-year dataset (2010–2023) under two scenarios. In total, 70% of data was used for training and 30% for testing. The first scenario encompassed meteorological variables plus three months of inflow lags, and the second included inflow lags only. Model performance was assessed using Coefficient of Determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and graphical plots. HQNN showed superior performance across all metrics. In Scenario 1, HQNN achieved R2 = 0.915, RMSE = 37.318 MCM, NSE = 0.908, MAPE = 8.343%; CNN-BiLSTM had R2 = 0.867, RMSE = 46.506 MCM, NSE = 0.858, MAPE = 10.795%; SVR had R2 = 0.846, RMSE = 52.372 MCM, NSE = 0.821, MAPE = 12.772%. In Scenario 2, HQNN maintained strong performance (R2 = 0.855, RMSE = 48.56 MCM, NSE = 0.845, MAPE = 9.979%) and outperformed CNN-BiLSTM (R2 = 0.810, RMSE = 56.126 MCM, NSE = 0.793, MAPE = 11.456%) and SVR (R2 = 0.801, RMSE = 60.336 MCM, NSE = 0.761, MAPE = 12.901%). In Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, HQNN increased the prediction accuracy by 19.76% and 13.47%, respectively, compared to the CNN-BiLSTM model. These results confirm HQNN’s reliability in both multivariate and univariate modeling.

Biodiesel as an alternative to diesel fuel produced from vegetable oils or animal fats has attracted more and more attention because it is renewable and environmentally friendly. Compared to conventional diesel fuel, biodiesel has slightly lower performance in engine combustion due to the lower calorific value that leads to lower power generated. This study investigates the effect of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) as an additive to the rice bran methyl ester (RBME). Artificial neural network (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM) was used for predicting the calorific value. The interaction effects of parameters such as dosage of MWCNTs, size of MWCNTs and reaction time on the calorific value of RBME were studied. Comparison of RSM and ANN performance was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the average absolute deviation (AAD) showed that the ANN model had better performance (R2 = 0.9808, RMSE = 0.0164, MAPE = 0.0017, AAD = 0.173) compare to RSM (R2 = 0.9746, RMSE = 0.0170, MAPE = 0.0028, AAD = 0.279). The optimum predicted of RBME calorific value that is generated using the cuckoo search (CS) via lévy flight optimization algorithm is 41.78 (MJ/kg). The optimum value was obtained using 64 ppm of < 7 nm MWCNTs blending for 60 min. The predicted calorific value was validated experimentally as 41.05 MJ/kg. Furthermore, the experimental results have shown that the addition of MWCNTs was significantly increased the calorific value from 36.87 MJ/kg to 41.05 MJ/kg (11.6%). Also, the addition of MWCNTs decreased flashpoint (−18.3%) and acid value (−0.52%). As a conclusion, adding MWCNTs as an additive had improved the physicochemical properties characteristics of RBME. To our best knowledge, no research has yet been performed on the effect of multi-walled carbon nanotubes-additive in physicochemical property of rice brand methyl ester application so far.

Tomatoes are among the world’s most significant vegetables, both in terms of production and consumption. Harvesting takes place in tomato production when the important quality attribute of total soluble solids content reaches its maximum possible level. Tomato total soluble solids content (TSS) is among the most crucial attribute parameters for assessing tomato quality and for tomato commercialization. Determination of total soluble solids content by conventional measurement methods is both destructive and time-consuming. Therefore, the tomato processing industry needs a rapid identification method to measure total soluble solids content (TSS). In this study, we aimed to estimate how much soluble solids there are in beef tomato fruit by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. The models were assessed using the Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metrics. The training data set results of the MLR model established to estimate the amount of brix in tomato fruit, calculated as MAE: 0.2349, RMSE: 0.3048, R2: 0.8441, and MAPE: 5.5368, while, according to the ANN model, MAE: 0.0250, RMSE: 0.031, R2: 0.9982 and MAPE: 0.5814. According to the metric outcomes, the ANN-based model performed better in both the training and testing parts.

This study investigated the accurate prediction of the calorific value of municipal solid waste (MSW) using soft computing systems, namely artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Calorific value of MSW is a crucial factor that exhibits the energy content of MSW, however, determining calorific value from conventional laboratory methods is quite expensive and difficult. The research focused on proximate analysis parameters obtained from the laboratory and utilized the measured calorific value to develop predictive models. All the models demonstrated a very good correlation between input and output, with consistently strong values of the coefficient of determination (R2). ANN SVM, MLP, and ANFIS models have respective R2 values of 0.9397, 0.8195, 0.7212, and 0.9979. ANFIS showed the best correlation with exceptional predictive power. Statistical parameters were determined to compare model accuracy, with ANFIS exhibiting the top performance, followed by ANN, and then MLP, which had the lowest values of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) at 8.704E-07, 0.00019, 0.00016, and 1.295E-05 respectively. However, SVM has the least capability to predict calorific values accurately compared to other models. Soft computing Models, particularly ANFIS, demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting the calorific value.

Drought is a complex and frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate drought forecasting is essential to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research has inferred the implication and the appropriateness of the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm for drought forecasting. For numerical evaluation, time series data of the Standardized Precipitating Temperature Index (SPTI) are used for nine meteorological stations located in various climatological zones of Pakistan. To assess the performance of ELM, this research includes parallel inferences of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The performance of each model is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Generally, graphical results illustrated an excellent performance of the ELM algorithm over MLP and ARIMA models. For training data of SPTI‐1, ELM’s best performance has observed at Chitral station (RMSE = 0.374, KGE = 0.838, WI = 0.960, MAE = 0.272, MAPE = 259.59, R = 0.93). For SPTI‐1 at Astore station, the numerical results are (RMSE = 0.688, KGE = 0.988, WI = 0.997, MAE = 0.798, MAPE = 247.35). The overall results indicate that the ELM outperformed by producing the smallest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values and maximum values for KGE, WI, and correlation coefficient values at almost all the selected meteorological stations for (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales. In summary, this research endorses the use of ELM for accurate drought forecasting.

Air is the most vital constituent for the sustenance of life on earth. Air pollution is the major problem we have been facing. It is important to address this issue to lead a healthy life. Forecasting of air quality will contribute to a healthy society. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) predictors trained with conjugate gradient descent have been implemented to forecast air quality index (AQI) in a particular area of interest. Several neural network models such as multilayer perceptron (MLP), Elman, radial basis function and NARX were applied. In these neural network models, four major pollutant concentrations including NO2, CO, O3 and PM10 for the year 2014 to 2016 in Delhi (India) were used to train each predictor. It can be concluded that, among all these models, radial basis function exhibited more accuracy in terms of measures of quality with mean absolute error (MAE) = 7.33, mean absolute percent error (MAPE) = 4.05%, correlation coefficient (R) = 0.993, root mean square error (RMSE) = 9.69 and index of agreement (IA) = 0.99.

The use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) by power distribution companies has gained a wide reception due to its ability to predict close to accurate forecasted electric load consumption. A local power utility company in the Philippines has existing data of its electric load consumption however there is no ANN model that can process this data to produce close to accurate forecasted load which is the requirement of their electric market in nominating electric load. To solve this problem, this study developed an electric load forecasting model using ANN. Electric load data preparation, neural network model integration using the Fast Artificial Neural Network (FANN) library and testing using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as error measures were conducted. Results showed that the electric load forecasting model yielded a MAPE of less than 1% and a RMSE that is close to 0. The results obtained clearly suggest that ANN model is a viable forecasting technique for a next day electric load forecasting system.

BackgroundMore than 79.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1.7 million deaths were caused by SARS-CoV-2; the disease was named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. Control of the COVID-19 epidemic has become a crucial issue around the globe, but there are limited studies that investigate the global trend of the COVID-19 pandemic together with each country’s policy measures.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop an online artificial intelligence (AI) system to analyze the dynamic trend of the COVID-19 pandemic, facilitate forecasting and predictive modeling, and produce a heat map visualization of policy measures in 171 countries.MethodsThe COVID-19 Pandemic AI System (CPAIS) integrated two data sets: the data set from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from the Blavatnik School of Government, which is maintained by the University of Oxford, and the data set from the COVID-19 Data Repository, which was established by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This study utilized four statistical and deep learning techniques for forecasting: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), feedforward neural network (FNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, and long short-term memory (LSTM). With regard to 1-year records (ie, whole time series data), records from the last 14 days served as the validation set to evaluate the performance of the forecast, whereas earlier records served as the training set.ResultsA total of 171 countries that featured in both databases were included in the online system. The CPAIS was developed to explore variations, trends, and forecasts related to the COVID-19 pandemic across several counties. For instance, the number of confirmed monthly cases in the United States reached a local peak in July 2020 and another peak of 6,368,591 in December 2020. A dynamic heat map with policy measures depicts changes in COVID-19 measures for each country. A total of 19 measures were embedded within the three sections presented on the website, and only 4 of the 19 measures were continuous measures related to financial support or investment. Deep learning models were used to enable COVID-19 forecasting; the performances of ARIMA, FNN, and the MLP neural network were not stable because their forecast accuracy was only better than LSTM for a few countries. LSTM demonstrated the best forecast accuracy for Canada, as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 2272.551, 1501.248, and 0.2723075, respectively. ARIMA (RMSE=317.53169; MAPE=0.4641688) and FNN (RMSE=181.29894; MAPE=0.2708482) demonstrated better performance for South Korea.ConclusionsThe CPAIS collects and summarizes information about the COVID-19 pandemic and offers data visualization and deep learning–based prediction. It might be a useful reference for predicting a serious outbreak or epidemic. Moreover, the system undergoes daily updates and includes the latest information on vaccination, which may change the dynamics of the pandemic.

This article devises the Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods of designing models of short-term forecasting (in 12 h and 24 h horizons) of electricity production in a selected Small Hydropower Plant (SHP). Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) are difficult to predict due to weather variability. Electricity production by a run-of-river SHP is marked by the variability related to the access to instantaneous flow in the river and weather conditions. In order to develop predictive models of an SHP facility (installed capacity 760 kW), which is located in Southern Poland on the Skawa River, hourly data from nearby meteorological stations and a water gauge station were collected as explanatory variables. Data on the water management of the retention reservoir above the SHP were also included. The variable to be explained was the hourly electricity production, which was obtained from the tested SHP over a period of 3 years and 10 months. Obtaining these data to build models required contact with state institutions and private entrepreneurs of the SHP. Four AI methods were chosen to create predictive models: two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Base Functions (RBFs), and two types of decision trees methods, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). Finally, after applying forecast quality measures of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Coefficient of Determination (R2), the most effective model was indicated. The decision trees method proved to be more accurate than ANN models. The best GBDT models’ errors were MAPE 3.17% and MAE 9.97 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE 3.41% and MAE 10.96 kWh (for 24 h horizon). MLPs had worse results: MAPE from 5.41% to 5.55% and MAE from 18.02 kWh to 18.40 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE from 7.30% to 7.50% and MAE from 24.12 kWh to 24.83 kWh (for 24 h horizon). Forecasts using RBF were not made due to the very low quality of training and testing (the correlation coefficient was approximately 0.3).