Stream-flow forecasting using extreme learning machines: A case study in a semi-arid region in Iraq

Air overpressure (AOp) is a hazardous effect induced by the blasting method in surface mines. Therefore, it needs to be predicted to reduce the potential risk of damage. The aim of this study is to offer an efficient method to predict AOp using a cascaded forward neural network (CFNN) trained by Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm, called the CFNN-LM model. Additionally, a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and extreme learning machine (ELM) were employed to demonstrate the accuracy level of the proposed CFNN-LM model. To conduct the CFNN-LM, GRNN, and ELM models, an extensive database, related to four quarry sites in Malaysia, was used including 62 sets of dependent and independent parameters. Next, the performances of the aforementioned models were checked and discussed through statistical criteria and efficient graphical tools. Finally, the results showed the superiority of CFNN-LM (R2 = 0.9263 and RMSE = 3.0444) over GRNN (R2 = 0.7787 and RMSE = 5.1211) and ELM (R2 = 0.6984 and RMSE = 6.2537) models in terms of prediction accuracy. Furthermore, three different regression analysis metrics were used to perform the sensitivity analysis, and according to the obtained results, the maximum charge per delay ( $$\beta$$ = 0.475, SE = 0.115, t-test = 4.125) was considered as the most influential feature in modeling the AOp.

Modeling reference evapotranspiration using extreme learning machine and generalized regression neural network only with temperature data

Rapid detection of food quality indicators using ELM and near-infrared spectroscopy.

This paper presents the development of a general regression neural network (GRNN) model for the prediction of annual municipal solid waste (MSW) generation at the national level for 44 countries of different size, population and economic development level. Proper modelling of MSW generation is essential for the planning of MSW management system as well as for the simulation of various environmental impact scenarios. The main objective of this work was to examine the potential influence of economy crisis (global or local) on the forecast of MSW generation obtained by the GRNN model. The existence of the so-called structural breaks that occur because of the economic crisis in the studied period (2000-2012) for each country was determined and confirmed using the Chow test and Quandt-Andrews test. Two GRNN models, one which did not take into account the influence of the economic crisis (GRNN) and another one which did (SB-GRNN), were developed. The novelty of the applied method is that it uses broadly available social, economic and demographic indicators and indicators of sustainability, together with GRNN and structural break testing for the prediction of MSW generation at the national level. The obtained results demonstrate that the SB-GRNN model provide more accurate predictions than the model which neglected structural breaks, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.0% compared to 6.7% generated by the GRNN model. The proposed model enhanced with structural breaks can be a viable alternative for a more accurate prediction of MSW generation at the national level, especially for developing countries for which a lack of MSW data is notable.

Real-time porosity prediction using gas-while-drilling data and machine learning with reservoir associated gas: Case study for Hassi Messaoud field, Algeria

Modeling of energy consumption and related GHG (greenhouse gas) intensity and emissions in Europe using general regression neural networks

To solve the problems of low prediction accuracy, poor stability, and low calculation efficiency in runoff forecasting, this study develops an extreme learning machine (ELM) model based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). The model first uses orthogonal triangular decomposition (QR) to redefine the ELM hidden layer output to construct the orthogonal triangular ELM (QR-ELM). It then introduces the online sequence mechanism (OS) into the QR-ELM model to construct online sequence OR-ELM (OS-QR-ELM), which can effectively improve the efficiency of the ELM models. Then, it uses the correlation wave extension method to extend both ends of the original signal to solve the end effect of CEEMDAN. Finally, it integrates CEEMDAN and OS-QR-ELM combined with parallel computing ideas to construct a parallel CEEMDAN-OS-QR-ELM runoff prediction method. The experimental results show that compared with the support vector regression method combined with empirical mode decomposition, the accuracy and reliability of the parallel CEEMDAN-OS-QR-ELM model was 1.09% and 8% higher, respectively. Compared with the ELM model, the efficiency of OS-QR-ELM was 5%.

Predicting water consumption is of key importance for water supply management, which is also relevant in processes for reviewing prices.In this study, a hybrid method based on extreme learning machine model with the adaptive metrics of inputs is proposed for improving forecasting accuracy.The adaptive metrics of inputs can solve the problems of amplitude changing and trend determination, and reduce the effect of the overfitting of networks.It was found that the proposed model is practical for water demand forecasting and outperforms the autoregression (AR), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine(SVM) and extreme learning machine (ELM) models.

This study presents a comparative analysis of hybrid Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) models optimized with metaheuristic algorithms Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), and Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) for real-time Rate of Penetration (ROP) prediction in drilling operations. The study aims to improve ROP prediction accuracy and computational efficiency while addressing the challenges of real-time implementation in dynamic drilling environments. The methodology involves a formation-specific modelling approach, where separate ELM models are trained for each formation using surface drilling parameters such as weight on bit (WOB), rotary speed (RPM), and flow rate. Metaheuristic algorithms optimize the ELM’s weights and biases to improve predictive performance. The models were trained and validated using a dataset of 13,262 data points from an Algerian field, with different statistical metrics used for evaluation. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) identified drilling torque and standpipe pressure as key ROP influencers. Results indicate that all hybrid models outperform standalone ELM, with ELM-GWO achieving the highest accuracy and fastest convergence. The real-time modelling framework, incorporating incremental learning and formation-based model recalibration, which ensures robust and adaptive ROP predictions and minimizing reliance on difficult-to-measure parameters such as unconfined compressive strength (UCS). This work contributes to the existing body of literature by introducing a formation-specific and real-time hybrid ELM modelling approach, demonstrating its potential for ROP optimization and cost reduction in petroleum drilling.

Research community has recently put more attention to the Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) algorithm in Neural Network (NN) area. The ELMs are much faster than the traditional gradient-descent-based learning algorithms due to its analytical determination of output weights with the random choice of input weights and hidden layer bias. However, since the input weights and bias are randomly assigned and not adjusted, the ELMs model shows an instability if we repeat the experiments many times. Such instability makes the ELMs less reliable than other computational intelligence models. In our investigation, we try to solve this problem by using the Random Production in the first layer of the ELMs. Thus, we can reduce the chance of using random weight assignment in ELMs by removing the bias in the hidden layer. Experiment son different data sets demonstrate that the proposed model has higher stability and reliability than the classical ELMs.

The aim of this work was to develop an accurate model to swiftly forecast the ultimate conditions and the stress–strain curves of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) confined by fibre-reinforced polymer (FRP). Four neural network predictive models based on machine learning (back-propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM) and generalised regression neural network (GRNN)) were constructed to forecast the ultimate conditions. A BPNN-based model to predict stress–strain curves was developed. A database of 193 compression test results of FRP-confined UHPC members was collected from the open literature and a thorough evaluation of data quality was conducted. The results showed that the SVR, BPNN, GRNN and ELM prediction models exhibited excellent accuracy when compared with a design-oriented model. The GRNN exhibited the highest predictive precision, followed by SVR. The developed prediction models establish a foundation for the design and quick prediction of FRP-confined UHPC.

Drought is a complex and frequently occurring natural hazard in many parts of the world. Therefore, accurate drought forecasting is essential to mitigate its adverse impacts. This research has inferred the implication and the appropriateness of the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm for drought forecasting. For numerical evaluation, time series data of the Standardized Precipitating Temperature Index (SPTI) are used for nine meteorological stations located in various climatological zones of Pakistan. To assess the performance of ELM, this research includes parallel inferences of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The performance of each model is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE), Willmott index (WI), and Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Generally, graphical results illustrated an excellent performance of the ELM algorithm over MLP and ARIMA models. For training data of SPTI‐1, ELM’s best performance has observed at Chitral station (RMSE = 0.374, KGE = 0.838, WI = 0.960, MAE = 0.272, MAPE = 259.59, R = 0.93). For SPTI‐1 at Astore station, the numerical results are (RMSE = 0.688, KGE = 0.988, WI = 0.997, MAE = 0.798, MAPE = 247.35). The overall results indicate that the ELM outperformed by producing the smallest RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values and maximum values for KGE, WI, and correlation coefficient values at almost all the selected meteorological stations for (1, 3, 6, 9, and 12) month time scales. In summary, this research endorses the use of ELM for accurate drought forecasting.

The dynamic thermomechanical properties of wood–plastic composites (WPCs) are influenced by various factors, such as the selection of raw materials and processing parameters. To investigate the effects of different wood fiber content ratios and temperature on the loss modulus of WPCs, seven different proportions of Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.) and Chinese fir [Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.] mixed-fiber-reinforced HDPE composites were prepared using the extrusion molding method. Their dynamic thermomechanical properties were tested and analyzed. The storage modulus of WPCs showed a decreasing trend with increasing temperature. A reduction in the mass ratio of Masson pine wood fibers to Chinese fir wood fibers resulted in an increase in the storage modulus of WPCs. The highest storage modulus was achieved when the mass ratio of Masson pine wood fibers to Chinese fir wood fibers was 1:5. In addition, the loss modulus of the composites increased as the content of Masson pine fiber decreased, with the lowest loss modulus observed in HDPE composites reinforced with Masson pine wood fibers. The loss tangent for all seven types of WPCs increased with rising temperatures, with the maximum loss tangent observed in WPCs reinforced with Masson pine wood fibers and HDPE. A prediction method based on the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) model was introduced to predict the dynamic thermomechanical properties of WPCs. The prediction accuracy of the ELM model was compared comprehensively with that of other models, including Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Random Forest (RF), Back Propagation (BP) neural networks, and Particle Swarm Optimization-BP (PSO-BP) neural network models. Among these, the ELM model showed superior data fitting and prediction accuracy, with an R2 value of 0.992, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.363, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.311. Compared to the other models, the ELM model demonstrated the best performance. This study provides a solid basis and reference for future research on the dynamic thermomechanical properties of WPCs.

Monthly revenue per unit (RPU), measured by the total monthly revenue divided by the total monthly number of cars in the fleet, is one of the most popular profitability assessments in the car-rental industry. Because pricing decision is influenced by profit a lot, accurate forecast of RPU is thus useful for pricing in car-rental industry. Support vector regression (SVR) is an emerging forecast technique and successfully applied in many domains. The aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of SVR in RPU forecast. Because SVR model contains three parameters influencing the forecasting accuracy, this work treats the forecasting error as an objective and employs tabu search (TS) algorithms to minimize the forecasting error. Actual RPU data are used to depict the forecasting performance of the improved SVR model. Two forecasting model, namely the general regression neural network (GRNN) model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, are used to forecast the same RPU data. Simulation results indicate that the improved SVR model is superior to the other models in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Water consumption of plants is a key parameter for formulating irrigation system, and the precise prediction play a important role in improving the use efficiency of limited water resources. In this experiment, by using the method of artificial neural network and MATLAB DATA PROCESSING SYSTEM combined with the meteorological data of air temperature, relative air humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, soil water content and dew point temperature as the input variable, the author established the artificial neural network system to forecast the seedling water consumption of P.×euramericana cv."74/76", and through the experiments it has been examined that two neural network system models can be applied in forecasting water consumption of seedlings, and the average relative error of Back Propagation (BP) neural network prediction model was 0.07, the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) prediction model was 0.05, moreover, the latter had good stability, while that of the former was poor. Therefore, we propose that GRNN model can be used in prediction of seedling water consumption. Furthermore, the maximum relative error of GRNN predication model was 0.106, the minimum relative error was 0.015. The GRNN model is superior to the BP neural network model that the former performs a higher forecasting accuracy with relatively shorter time consumption and faster speed in training.