Systematic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Water Shortage Mitigation Projects Considering Climate Change

<p>Climate change is widely recognized as a major risk to societies and natural ecosystems but the cascading processes of impacts through complex and interconnected systems are poorly understood. In fact, the high end of the risk, i.e. where risks become existential, is poorly framed, defined and analyzed by science. This gap is at odds with the fundamental relevance of existential and systemic risks for humanity, and it also limits the ability of scientific communities to engage with the emerging debates and narratives about the existential dimension of climate change that have recently gained considerable traction.</p><p>In this contribution we address this gap by scoping and defining existential risks related to climate change. We first review the context of existential risks and climate change, as related to systemic risks and drawing on research in fields such as global catastrophic risks and the so-called “Reasons for Concern” in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also consider how existential risks are framed in the civil society climate movement and what we can learn in this respect from the COVID-19 crisis, which is also a primary learning space for better understanding for both, systemic and existential risks. We then develop a definition that distinguishes between a narrower scope of conditions that threaten survival and basic needs, and a broader scope of conditions that threaten a certain level of well-being, consisting of meeting acceptable living standards. Based on this, we define six dimensions of existential risks of climate change, including the mechanisms they unfold, the systems affected, the dimension and magnitude, the probability of occurrence, time horizon and speed, and the scale of the threat. Our contribution is intended to support further scientific analysis of existential and systemic risks as part of the full risk space associated with climate change. Considering the widespread lag in awareness and regulation related to systemic risks, the results of this study should make the risk space better defined, more tangible and hence more conducive to preventive action by policy.</p>

In this article, a capacity expansion framework is proposed for failure-prone flow-networks. A systemic risk measure that quantifies the risk of unsatisfied demand due to cascaded edge failures is considered. To minimize the total cost of additional edge capacities, while keeping the risk of unsatisfied demand below a certain threshold, a general stochastic optimization problem is formulated. The distribution of unsatisfied demand is calculated via Monte-Carlo simulations embodied within a grid search algorithm that identifies the feasible region. Thereafter, the cost-optimal edge capacity expansion plan is computed by a differential evolution algorithm. Contributions of this article are: 1) consideration of both immediate investment and future risk costs of capacity expansion plans; 2) a generic flow-network model that can be tuned for different real-life applications; 3) addressing the stochastic nature of both supply and demand simultaneously within a systemic risk framework; 4) use of eigenvector centrality for edge grouping in systemic risk analysis. An extensive numerical study is performed to investigate the effects of different edge grouping methods, characteristics of stochastic components, and cost parameters on the feasible region and optimal solution. The proposed framework is also demonstrated on a case study adapted from ERCOT 13-bus test system.

This presentation outlines a framework of how to identify, assess, and govern systemic risks, applied to the context of urban and metropolitan settings. In contrast to routine risks, systemic risks appear on a systemic and structural level, produced, and affected by complex endogenous and exogenous interdependencies. Systemic risks are unintended by-products of current transformation processes, such as the deployment and innovation of new technologies, infrastructural changes, or socio-political dynamics, for example. Urban and metropolitan provide fertile ground for systemic risks, exhibiting a nexus of tightly coupled dynamic natural, societal, and technological systems.However, so far systemic risks lack adequate assessment, evaluation, and governance approaches, which is a barrier toward developing effective policy measures. This gap in governance mechanisms is particularly glaring in the context of increased of pluvial and fluvial floods, wildfires, storms, and other extreme weather events across European cities. Failing to take the systemic interdependencies of urban settings into account may lead to higher socio-economic losses and potential systemic breakdowns, e.g., on the energy-supply, healthcare, or infrastructure level. The framework we propose entails the qualitative identification and assessment of systemic risks, ethical and societal implications, as well as the quantitative analysis thereof. We suggest a two-step approach towards the assessment and governance of systemic risks.First, a clear identification of the systemic risk in question needs to take place. The analysis of systemic risks needs to pay attention to casual relations and feedback mechanisms between various system factors at the intra- and inter-system level, which result in transboundary cascading effects. Accordingly, delineating both the relevant systems and entangled risks requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining the quantification of risks alongside their qualitative assessment. This entails understanding, conceptualizing, and modeling vulnerabilities, scenario development, as well as the integration of stakeholders to identify potential leverage points and enable the facilitation of transformative processes. In the context of urban environments, this means delineating the various affected systems, and how they interact (e.g. healthcare, water supply, and electricity infrastructure). Second, identified systemic risk requires adequate governance. Governance of systemic risks must be concerned with the analysis of embedded systems, procedural considerations of inclusion and deliberation, as well as closure. The salient features of reflection, iteration, inclusion, transparency, and accountability have been identified as guiding principles for governance processes concerned with systemic risk. The procedural governance approach also explicitly relies on ethical considerations, tied to recognition and participatory justice. In the context of urban environments, this entails for example analyzing the relevant governance bodies (e.g. local vs. national), understanding their respective responsibilities and interdependencies, and assessing the decision-making process surrounding disaster risk management.The presentation outlines a framework to address the challenges of complexities, uncertainties, and ambiguities associated with systemic risks. The framework draws on conceptual contributions as well as empirical evidence from transdisciplinary stakeholder and public engagement processes in urban and metropolitan contexts.

This study aims to measure systemic risk in conventional commercial banks in Indonesia with the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) model developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009). The financial crises of 1998 and 2008 have become valuable lessons for Indonesian banks to always maintain financial system stability because the impact caused by systemic risks is very large. Systemic risk is the possibility of instability due to contagion in some or all of the financial system. This study uses a sample of 6 conventional commercial banks in Indonesia from January 2012 to December 2018. The results obtained from this study is the systemic risk is not related to the size of banks. Each bank has a negative externality so that it can cause a bank rush and systemic impact.

Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector- General Issues and a First Assessment of Large Commercial (Re-)Insurers in Bermuda

This research addresses the most pressing global health issues and proposes evidence-based solutions for a healthier future. This study examines pandemic preparedness, healthcare access disparities, emerging infectious diseases, antimicrobial resistance, NCDs, and climate change's effects on public health using a systematic literature review and quantitative analysis. The findings emphasise the need of tackling these difficulties to improve global health equity and resilience. This research informs evidence-based initiatives and policy interventions to improve health outcomes and promote sustainable development worldwide by revealing healthcare access and infrastructure disparities between high-income and low-income countries and identifying areas that need targeted interventions. This study emphasises the need for collaboration and proactive actions to reduce global health disparities and improve well-being for all people, regardless of socioeconomic level or location.

Long-term sustainability in water supply systems is a major challenge due to water resources depletion, climate change and population growth. This paper presents a scenario-based approach for performance assessment of intervention strategies in water resources and supply systems (WRSS). A system dynamics approach is used for modelling the key WRSS components and their complex interactions with natural and human systems and is combined with a multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability performance assessment of strategies in each scenario. The scenarios combine population growth rates with groundwater extraction limits against two types of intervention strategies. The methodology was demonstrated on a real-world case study in Iran. Results show scenario-based analysis can provide suitable strategies leading to long-term sustainability of water resources for each scenario externally imposed on the water systems. For scenarios with either no threshold or one threshold of groundwater extraction limit, the only effective strategies for sustainable groundwater preservation are those involving agricultural water demand decrease with an average recovery rate of 130% for groundwater resources while other strategies of agricultural groundwater abstraction (constant/increase rates) fail to sustainably recover groundwater resources. However, all analysed strategies can provide sustainability of water resources with an average recovery rate of 33% for groundwater resources only when scenarios with two threshold limits are in place. The impact of scenarios with population growth rates on groundwater conservation is quite minor with an average recovery rate of 11% compared to scenarios of groundwater extraction limits with an average recovery rate of 79% between no threshold and two threshold limits.

Climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic have been classified as systemic risks and have elaborated that such systemic risks will become the new normal. Ways to tackle the long-term effects of climate change include law and environmental policy. In addition, insurance can help mitigate the burden placed on governments when such systemic risks occur, including pandemics. In relation to the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of long-Covid, sports and exercise are examined as a mitigating factor able to release pressure from public health and help mitigate its long-term effects. This article discusses the correlation of Covid-19 with environmental changes and climate changes and goes on to address the role of insurance, on the one hand and sports and exercise on the other hand as mitigating mechanisms to handle systemic risks such as climate change and pandemics. The article’s findings suggest and conclude that 1) outside state action (law and policy), private action such as change in lifestyle towards a more sustainable way of life, and sports and exercise can help with the long-term effects of pandemics and 2) insurance can act as a mitigating private sector mechanism. Governments should integrate law, policy, and mitigating techniques such as private insurance to tackle and respond to systemic risks. climate change, Covid-19, systemic risks, insurance, physical exercise, mitigation for climate change, mitigation, public health

How the ownership structures cause epidemics in financial markets: A network-based simulation model

Assessment of the vulnerability of a coastal freshwater system to climatic and non-climatic changes: A system dynamics approach

Evaluating the joint effects of climate and land use change on runoff and pollutant loading in a rapidly developing watershed

Objective:This research aims to recognize innovating changes in global retail, identified by analysis of publications presented in high impact journals.Method: The first stage was exploring the essence of the omnichannel terms in the Web of Science and Scopus databases. Was selected 80 publications in business intending to map the academic production and thus promote a better understanding of how the academy is conducting research efforts, identifying the findings, and presenting opportunities for future studies. Originality/relevance: The omnichannel theme is emerging, demonstrates relevance, novelty, but still requires theoretical robustness, since it is a matter of practical nature in search of new theories to give it more conceptual support.Theoretical / Methodological contributions: The study, through a systematic review and quantitative content analysis, allowed mapping the academic activity on the topic, thus contributing to the advancement of future research. It also allowed us to conclude that this is an emerging topic, present in high impact journals, produced by researchers working in the leading research centers in the world.Social / Managerial contributions: For the manager, the unique, complete, and harmonious shopping experience is the focal point, not the technology.

In this paper, the social stability risk analysis of nuclear power projects is carried out, and the working process of social stability risk analysis and risk evaluation index system of social stability is established. The social stability risk analysis of nuclear power plant in Guangdong province was taken as an example to introduce the application in this paper, at the same time for the current nuclear power project should focus on risk points to put forward risk mitigation measures and recommendations. This study can provide theoretical support and technical support for the social stability risk analysis of nuclear power projects, and provide decision support for the construction of nuclear power projects.

With the economic progress and scientific development since the 1980s, research on deserts in China has advanced remarkably. Many research outputs have been published, especially in recent years. However, a systematic review and quantitative analysis of these publications has been lacking. Here, we conducted a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the main deserts in China in order to characterize the trends and temporal changes in publications. Because the first publication was found in 1986, we searched all publications from 1986 to 2020. We found that annual publication output increased exponentially, especially after 2012, and that the Tengger Desert, the Taklimakan Desert, and the Horqin Sandy Land were the most intensively studied areas. Earth science, involving environmental science and ecology, geology, and agriculture were the major research fields. In addition, Journal of Arid Land, Chinese Science Bulletin, and Catena were the journals with the largest number of publications. The Chinese Academy of Sciences produced the largest number of publications, wherein, Li X R, Zhao X Y, and Zhang Y M were the three most productive authors. Noticeably, “climate change” has become a frequent topic since 2010, indicating that more attention has been paid to climate change and alleviating anthropogenic disturbances in desert areas in China. Although Chinese authors contributed the most publications, the average number of citations per publication for Chinese authors was relatively low. Our results highlight that authors should continue to improve the number of citations of their publications and pay more attention to the interactions between climate change and desertification in the deserts research of Northern China in the futures.

Uncertainty propagation in risk and resilience analysis of hierarchical systems