The negative participation paradox in three-candidate instant runoff elections

Single round vs. runoff elections under plurality rule: A theoretical analysis

Most elections, public and private in the United States or abroad, provide that to be declared elected, a candidate must receive either more than half of the valid votes cast in the contest (majority) or more votes than any other candidate (plurality). If there are only two candidates, the two rules are the same, but if there are more than two, the rules differ. Under the majority rule, if no candidate receives a majority, a run-off election or some other procedure is required to choose between the two candidates who lead on the first ballot. Since elections are time consuming and popular elections especially are expensive, investigation and comparison of alternatives seems worthwhile. The author has made a modest investigation, both deductive and inductive, having in mind particularly the proposed amendment to the U. S. Constitution providing for the popular election of the President. The rule put forward here and even more the method of analysis are applicable to a broader set of circumstances, however. The proposed Constitutional Amendment in the form in which it passed the House of Representatives in 1970 is interesting because it is a hybrid between the majority and plurality rules. It provides for election by plurality provided that the leading candidate receives more than 40% of the total vote. If no candidate receives more than 40% of the vote, a run-off election is called for. This rule seems reasonable if the leader receives, say, 49% and the runner-up 41% with 10% going to other candidates. It seems less reasonable if the leader receives 41% and the runner-up 40% with 19% to other candidates. An alternative which appeals on grounds of reasonableness and yet is simple is-

Public choice theorists have shown that choice of voting procedures may affect the outcome when more than two alternatives are on a ballot. The run-off election and the two-part ballot are two alternatives used in representation elections involving more than one union. A comparison of these alternatives under various voting strategies shows that the run-off election used by the NLRB results in fewer union wins if workers vote sincerely or if they engage in strategic behavior. The run-off procedure results in more union wins if workers seek to avoid their least-favored option or if they follow a second-best strategy.

How widespread is strategic voting in two-round electoral systems, and which types of voters are most likely to engage in such behavior? While runoff elections are common in presidential systems around the world, research on strategic voting in these settings remains limited. This paper explores four different types of strategic behavior that are possible in two-round systems, including some types, such as “strong-to-weak” strategic voting, which are not possible in single-shot elections. We use a nationwide survey to assess the incidence and correlates of strategic voting in Brazil’s 2018 presidential election, where thirteen candidates competed in the first round. We find evidence of “weak-to-strong” strategic voting at a similar rate to that documented in single-round elections in other countries. We find little evidence of other types of strategic voting. Furthermore, we show that voters’ confidence in their predictions of the likely electoral outcome and their ideological preferences strongly predict strategic voting. These results point to the importance of accounting for voter beliefs and attitudes in addition to objective voter characteristics to explain strategic voting.

I introduce voting by proxy for constructing and operating legislatures, and then compare it to direct representation, plurality, and single transferable vote (STV), which voting by proxy most closely resembles. When each voter uses voting by proxy to select his proxy among given legislators and elections are costless, voting by proxy maximizes the legislature's representation of the voting population. When each voter uses preferential voting by proxy, selecting a proxy during the vote count as well as a proxy in the legislature, and some ancillary rules are followed, I find that voting by proxy dominates STV and offers favorable tradeoffs against plurality. It improves representation and constituent service; eliminates gerrymandering; improves voter turnout; ranks the legislature's representatives by the proxies they hold rather than seniority; creates tighter representative-constituent links that lead to better informed voters, reducing the influence of special interests; and eliminates primary and runoff elections. Extra costs associated with its relative complexity or better representation can be made small.

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

The election of the mayor of the city of Kassel in March 2023 was special in two respects: firstly, in the first round of voting, a candidate from the SPD ran against the incumbent mayor, who was also a member of the SPD but was running as an independent candidate . Secondly, the incumbent withdrew his candidacy after the first round, in which he had received the most votes . As a result, only the second-placed candidate from the first round was left in the run-off . On the basis of a survey of the population of Kassel and the official election statistics, it can be shown that the mayor was able to benefit from a strong incumbency bonus in the first round . The fact that the SPD withdrew its support did him little harm . The second ballot changed its character due to the incumbent not standing . Failure to secure a majority of votes for the remaining candidate would have meant new elections . For many voters, this raised the question of the desirability of new elections . In the run-off election, a majority in favor of the remaining Green candidate was ultimately only achieved because some voters wanted to avoid new elections .

An unlinkably divisible and intention attachable ticket scheme for runoff elections

In 1988 the French voters gave François Mitterrand a second term as president. Although it was clear long in advance that the Socialist leader would be one of two candidates in the run-off election, his final victory was far from certain. In the end his margin of victory was relatively strong: 54.01 per cent to Jacques Chirac’s 45.98 per cent. The 1988 campaign took place, as do all campaigns, in the context of a national political system, consisting of four key components: the constitutional system, the party system, the electoral system and the campaign system.KeywordsPrime MinisterPresidential ElectionElectoral SystemParty SystemPresidential CampaignThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

The few research studies that explore the media’s coverage of female and or minority candidates have primarily been limited to mix gender elections. Not much attention has been given to what coverage of elections featuring all female candidates looks like. Do atypical candidates lead to atypical coverage? To expand this area of research, this study examines local newspaper’s coverage in mayoral runoff elections. This study’s exploration of how the media portrays candidates running in all female races relies on a content analysis of the two cities examined primary newspapers. The findings from this study are varied and complex. The findings reveal moderate support for the idea that news coverage of elections featuring two female candidates is different from the norm. The results indicate that women running for office still face a clear disadvantage in terms of securing balanced trait and issue coverage. Results also indicated that contrary to what was expected, in elections featuring two women of the same race/ethnic background, even two minority women, mentions of the candidates and or potential voters race are not as prevalent. Understanding how journalists cover female candidates is timely and essential if we are to ensure female candidates are covered accurately and objectively By studying the media’s coverage of all female runoff elections, this study provides an understanding about how female candidates are framed when there is not a White male candidate in the election.

Significance For the presidential poll, a strong third party candidate, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, poses a stiff challenge to the traditional candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has expressed confidence that it can manage and deliver a high quality election. Impacts The defection of a number of southern PDP governors from Atiku's camp will depress his vote totals. A discrepancy between opinion polls and the final result could trigger major political unrest, especially in the south-east. A run-off election could result in an extended electoral period with a disruptive impact on economic activity.

Hopes after the change of government in 2023:Lula da Silva as game changer? Uncertainty and violence during run-off elections and change of governmentWith 49.1 % of the valid votes, Bolsonaro lost very narrowly against the former President Lula da Silva 468 (50.9 %) from the left workers' party and won far more votes (58.3 million) than had been predicted.In addition to the strong evangelical, fundamentally Christian electorate, the majority of which is devoted to Bolsonaro, people from the middle of society gave him their votes.In the rural South and Southeast and in southern Ama zonia, the economically successful landowners, often descendants of former European immigrants, and the urban elite voted for Bolsonaro, 469 who was strongly supported by the military and police forces.In the narrow-minded mental map of the extended South, Bolsonaro represents the successful, manufacturing Brazil against Lula da Silva's "underdeveloped" Northeast, which depends on support from the rest of Brazil.A "third way" with other candidates, hoped for by many, proved unsuccessful.The rainbow press described the election campaign of the two controversial main candidates as "plague against cholera."Thousands of radicalised supporters of the deselected President Bolsonaro demonstrated since the election against the result of the run-off election of October 30, 2022.Road blockades and truck drivers' strikes hampered long-distance traffic.In front of the military facilities, Bolsonaro's followers set up veritable camps in the vein hope of military intervention in their favour.As a former military officer, Bolsonaro as President had always praised the military dictatorship and filled many positions, even in the cabinet, with military personnel.The triple alliance of his followers of military, evangelical churches and neoliberal technocrats had a high mobilising capacity (Maihold 2022).His supporters believed -and still believe -it was a stolen election without being able to present any evidence.They felt they were victims of a conspiracy since the release of Lula da Silva, who was originally convicted of corruption, and the annulment 468 The 77-year-old Lula da Silva, who was president from 2003 to 2010, also wanted to run against Bolsonaro in 2018, but was barred from the 2018 campaign by his conviction on corruption charges.469 Presidential election results of October 30, 2022: Bolsonaro: South Brazil (58.9 %; Santa Catarina 69.3 %, Paran 62.4 %); Mid-West (60.2 %; Mato Grosso 65.1 %); Amaznia Legal: Rondnia 70.7 %; Special situation in Roraima: 76.1 % (Venezuelan immigration problems; gold boom).

Approval voting allows each voter to vote for as many candidates as he wishes in an election but not cast more than one vote for each candidate of whom he approves. If there is a strict Condorcet candidate — a candidate who defeats all others in pairwise contests — approval voting is shown to be the only nonranked voting system that is always able to elect the strict Condorcet candidate when voters use sincere admissible strategies. Moreover, if a strict Condorcet candidate must be elected under ordinary plurality voting when voters use admissible strategies, then he must also be elected under approval voting when voters use admissible strategies, but the converse does not hold.

The Top Two: Too Soon to Tell Zabrae Valentine Until just a handful of years ago electoral reform advocates in California engaged regularly in eager debates about whether, with the right mix of structural governance reforms, state gov- ernment could be more accountable and effective for all Californians instead of only those with deep pockets and close ties to key power brokers (for a government reform geek, this is a very thrilling line of discussion, I promise you). Everyone had a theory, but no one knew for sure— because as recently as early November 2008, California hadn’t passed any of the numerous state- level reforms now jostling California voters. There was no Citizens Redistricting Commission, no Top Two, no loosening of the term limits law, and no initiative process reform (signed by Governor Brown only a few months ago). The last several years have been a veritable whirlwind of reform. Not surprisingly, now near- ly every pundit in the state and no doubt a few political scientists is desperate to opine on wheth- er the landscape has changed, and if so, then for better or worse? Data on the impact of these new policies is trickling in, but we should avoid firm conclusions until the Top Two has had time to take hold. Ideally, this will include giving voters a chance to become aware of the policy changes and consider altering their voting behavior in response, since impact on voter behavior is a major element of the predicted benefit of most of these reforms. The suggestion to chill for a while particularly applies to those eager to pass judgment on the Top Two, the efficacy of which really is largely a function of voter awareness and behavior. Absolutely we should be tracking the political affiliation of primary and run-off election can- didates, voter turnout, and how winners behave once in office, in the context of the Top Two. But it doesn’t make sense to try to interpret possible changes in voter behavior until voters have had a chance to know that in this shimmering new reform-infused world they can vote for any candidate irrespective of party affiliation, and all of those candidates are (or should be) vying for their vote. If, after robust steps have been taken to alert voters to these changes, voters still take a pass, then perhaps the reform should be viewed as less-than-wholly effective (controlling for un- related hurdles that also discourage eligible nonvoters from voting). Voter education of this kind hasn’t been done in a big way yet, but hopefully we’ll see it in 2016. In addition to ensuring voters are going to be in the loop, there is one more thing to consider. For the Top Two to actually be transformational, the date of the California primary also needs to be moved to much later in the year—for example, August. Candidates need sufficient time with voters to communicate their political agenda, values and leadership style, and voters need that time to absorb this information and decide what to do with it. The more candidates there are to choose from—and with the Top Two there could be many more—the harder this stage of the process is for everyone.

The authors systematically analyze runoff elections by assembling a data set that includes primary and general election returns for those states that regularly use runoffs for selecting state legislative, executive, and congressional officials. They also draw upon data for many municipal offices nationwide and examine court cases and legislative efforts aimed at abolishing or altering runoffs.Originally published in 1992.A UNC Press Enduring Edition -- UNC Press Enduring Editions use the latest in digital technology to make available again books from our distinguished backlist that were previously out of print. These editions are published unaltered from the original, and are presented in affordable paperback formats, bringing readers both historical and cultural value.