Volcanoes, Climate, and Society

The response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to a strong volcanic eruption is controlled by several mechanisms, including the spatial structure of the volcanic forcing. In the case of extratropical eruptions, a mechanism contributing to posteruption ENSO evolution involves the forced interhemispheric energy imbalance and the associated displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In this study, using 100 members of diverse (in locations and magnitude) idealized volcanic forcing ensembles from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1-2-LR), we find that large (≥10-Tg sulfur) north and south extratropical eruptions lead to strong El Niño–like and weak La Niña–like responses in the second winter following the eruption, respectively. We demonstrate that the shifts of the ITCZ are the main drivers of the ENSO response. The weaker ENSO response for the south extratropical eruptions is due to contrasting westerly anomalies in the eastern Pacific from multiple local responses and easterly anomalies in the central Pacific directly from ITCZ displacement along the equator, thereby reducing the overall response. Furthermore, when separating the 100 members based on initial ENSO states, distinct ENSO responses are found, and significant differences in ENSO tendencies can be observed even 5 years after eruptions. This study stresses the importance of seasonal differences in ITCZ displacement when studying volcanic forcing and contributes to explain the inconsistency of ENSO responses to past volcanic events. Significance Statement In this study, we investigate whether different latitudinal locations of volcanic eruptions can result in distinct El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) responses by using large ensemble simulations. We find that the locations of the eruption and its emission strength can all lead to distinct ENSO-like responses, highlighting the importance of the changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone in driving such responses. Our study enhances the dynamical understanding of ENSO-like responses to volcanic forcing, which may lead to better future predictions on volcanic impacts, better past volcanic reconstructions through climate records, and a new perspective on studying ENSO dynamics through interhemispheric energy transport.

The relationship between volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) and volcanic radiative forcing is key for quantifying volcanic climate impacts. In their Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used one scaling factor between volcanic SAOD and volcanic forcing based on climate model simulations of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which may not be appropriate for all eruptions. Using a large ensemble of aerosol‐chemistry‐climate simulations of eruptions with different sulfur dioxide emissions, latitudes, emission altitudes, and seasons, we find that the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is on average 20% less than the instantaneous radiative forcing, predominantly due to a positive shortwave cloud adjustment. In our model, the volcanic SAOD‐ERF relationship is non‐unique and varies widely depending on time since an eruption, eruption latitude, and season due to differences in aerosol dispersion and incoming solar radiation. Our revised SAOD‐ERF relationships suggest that volcanic forcing has been previously overestimated.

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Solar variability has been hypothesized to be a major driver of North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations through the Holocene along with orbitally induced insolation change. However, another important climate driver, volcanic forcing has generally been underestimated prior to the past 2,500 years partly owing to the lack of proper proxy temperature records. Here, we reconstruct seasonally unbiased and physically constrained Greenland Summit temperatures over the Holocene using argon and nitrogen isotopes within trapped air in a Greenland ice core (GISP2). We show that a series of volcanic eruptions through the Holocene played an important role in driving centennial to millennial-scale temperature changes in Greenland. The reconstructed Greenland temperature exhibits significant millennial correlations with K+ and Na+ ions in the GISP2 ice core (proxies for atmospheric circulation patterns), and δ18O of Oman and Chinese Dongge cave stalagmites (proxies for monsoon activity), indicating that the reconstructed temperature contains hemispheric signals. Climate model simulations forced with the volcanic forcing further suggest that a series of large volcanic eruptions induced hemispheric-wide centennial to millennial-scale variability through ocean/sea-ice feedbacks. Therefore, we conclude that volcanic activity played a critical role in driving centennial to millennial-scale Holocene temperature variability in Greenland and likely beyond.

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model, ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s–1900s, in which, along with the volcanic forcing, the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular, the decreases in the annual mean global temperature Tg in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century, the Mt. Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions, are 0.28, 0.27, and 0.46 K, respectively, in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover, in the IAP RAS CM, the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease, especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales, volcanism leads to variations in Tg on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings, the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing, along with that due to variations in solar irradiance, the model has partly reproduced the nonmonotonic global warming for the 20th century.

Abstract. Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected by their accompanying sulfuric acid deposition in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 kyr before 2000 CE (b2k). Over most of the investigated interval the ice cores are synchronized, making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only list Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 737 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 kyr period – for which the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is found at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the ratio of Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. A total of 25 of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years, and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the Tambora, Indonesia, eruption (1815 CE). Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. This confirms the suggestion that the isostatic unloading of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets may be related to the enhanced NH volcanic activity. Our ice-core-based volcanic sulfate records provide the atmospheric sulfate burden and estimates of climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.

Large volcanic eruptions occurring in the last glacial period can be detected in terms of their deposited sulfuric acid in continuous ice cores. Here we employ continuous sulfate and sulfur records from three Greenland and three Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, the frequency and the climatic forcing of large volcanic eruptions that occurred during the second half of the last glacial period and the early Holocene, 60–9 ka years before AD 2000 (b2k). The ice cores are synchronized over most of the investigated interval making it possible to distinguish large eruptions with a global sulfate distribution from eruptions detectable in one hemisphere only. Due to limited data resolution and to a large variability in the sulfate background signal, particularly in the Greenland glacial climate, we only detect Greenland sulfate depositions larger than 20 kg km−2 and Antarctic sulfate depositions larger than 10 kg km−2. With those restrictions, we identify 1113 volcanic eruptions in Greenland and 740 eruptions in Antarctica within the 51 ka period – where the sulfate deposition of 85 eruptions is defined at both poles (bipolar eruptions). Based on the relative Greenland and Antarctic sulfate deposition, we estimate the latitudinal band of the bipolar eruptions and assess their approximate climatic forcing based on established methods. The climate forcing of the five largest eruptions is estimated to be higher than −70 W m−2. Twenty-seven of the identified bipolar eruptions are larger than any volcanic eruption occurring in the last 2500 years and 69 eruptions are estimated to have larger sulfur emission strengths than the VEI-7 Tambora eruption that occurred in Indonesia in 1815 AD. The frequency of eruptions larger than the typical VEI-7 (VEI-8) eruption by the comparison of sulfur emission strength is found to be 5.3 (7) times higher than estimated from geological evidence. Throughout the investigated period, the frequency of volcanic eruptions is rather constant and comparable to that of recent times. During the deglacial period (16–9 ka b2k), however, there is a notable increase in the frequency of volcanic events recorded in Greenland and an obvious increase in the fraction of very large eruptions. For Antarctica, the deglacial period cannot be distinguished from other periods. These volcanoes documented in ice cores provide atmospheric sulfate burden and climate forcing for further research on climate impact and understanding the mechanism of the Earth system.

<p>The  "1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the 3rd largest since 1500 with an eruption magnitude estimated to be two times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the ~1809 eruption, similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous.  Here, we present the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSI) and uncertainties from ice core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 -19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure.  While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could be due to internal climate variability. </p>

The sensitivity of the climate–biogeochemistry system to volcanic eruptions is investigated using the comprehensive Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model includes an interactive carbon cycle with modules for terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The volcanic forcing is based on a recent reconstruction for the last 1200 yr. An ensemble of five simulations is performed and the averaged response of the system is analysed in particular for the largest eruption of the last millennium in the year 1258. After this eruption, the global annual mean temperature drops by 1 K and recovers slowly during 10 yr. Atmospheric CO2 concentration declines during 4 yr after the eruption by ca. 2 ppmv to its minimum value and then starts to increase towards the pre-eruption level. This CO2 decrease is explained mainly by reduced heterotrophic respiration on land in response to the surface cooling, which leads to increased carbon storage in soils, mostly in tropical and subtropical regions. The ocean acts as a weak carbon sink, which is primarily due to temperature-induced solubility. This sink saturates 2 yr after the eruption, earlier than the land uptake.

Volcanism and global plague pandemics: Towards an interdisciplinary synthesis

The sensitivity of the climate–biogeochemistry system to volcanic eruptions is investigated using the comprehensive Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. The model includes an interactive carbon cycle with modules for terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The volcanic forcing is based on a recent reconstruction for the last 1200 yr. An ensemble of five simulations is performed and the averaged response of the system is analysed in particular for the largest eruption of the last millennium in the year 1258. After this eruption, the global annual mean temperature drops by 1 K and recovers slowly during 10 yr. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration declines during 4 yr after the eruption by ca. 2 ppmv to its minimum value and then starts to increase towards the pre-eruption level. This CO 2 decrease is explained mainly by reduced heterotrophic respiration on land in response to the surface cooling, which leads to increased carbon storage in soils, mostly in tropical and subtropical regions. The ocean acts as a weak carbon sink, which is primarily due to temperature-induced solubility. This sink saturates 2 yr after the eruption, earlier than the land uptake. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00471.x

Abstract. Effusive, long-lasting volcanic eruptions impact climate through the emission of gases and the subsequent production of aerosols. Previous studies, both modelling and observational, have made efforts to quantify these impacts and untangle them from natural variability. However, due to the scarcity of large and well-observed effusive volcanic eruptions, our understanding remains patchy. Here, we use an Earth system model to systematically investigate the climate response to high-latitude, effusive volcanic eruptions, similar to the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in Iceland, as a function of eruption season and size. The results show that the climate response is regional and strongly modulated by different seasons, exhibiting midlatitude cooling during summer and Arctic warming during winter. Furthermore, as eruptions increase in size in terms of sulfur dioxide emissions, the climate response becomes increasingly insensitive to variations in emission strength, levelling off for eruptions between 20 and 30 times the size of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption. Volcanic eruptions are generally considered to lead to surface cooling, but our results indicate that this is an oversimplification, especially in the Arctic, where warming is found to be the dominant response during autumn and winter.

Background conditions have the potential to influence the climate response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. As a case study, we systematically assess the decadal climate response to the April 1815 Tambora eruption in a set of full‐complexity Earth system model simulations. Three 10‐member simulation ensembles are evaluated which describe the climate evolution of the early 19th century under (1) full‐forcing conditions, (2) volcanic forcing–only conditions, and (3) volcanic forcing–only conditions excluding events preceding the Tambora eruption. The amplitude of the simulated radiative perturbation induced by the Tambora eruption depends only marginally on the background conditions. In contrast, simulated near‐surface atmospheric and especially oceanic dynamics evolve significantly differently after the eruption under different background conditions. In particular, large inter‐ensemble differences are found in the post‐Tambora decadal evolution of oceanic heat transport and sea ice in the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean. They reveal the existence of multiple response pathways that depend on background conditions. Background conditions are therefore not merely a source of additive noise for post‐eruption decadal climate variability but actively influence the mechanisms involved in the post‐eruption decadal evolution. Hence, background conditions should appropriately be accounted for in future ensemble‐based numerical studies.

Monitoring and verifying anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) Emissions at high spatiotemporal resolution with observation-based evidence is desirable for climate policymakers. A multiple-scale nested GHG assimilation system, named GCASv3, was developed for quantifying anthropogenic GHG emissions at high spatiotemporal resolution. GCASv3 uses a four level nested scheme and consists of one global module and one regional module. The global model is capable of assimilating XCO2 and XCH4 data to infer global CO2 flux and CH4 emissions at 10x10 resolution, while the regional module is able to assimilate ground and satellite GHG observations to quantify anthropogenic GHG emissions on national, regional and urban scales at 27km, 9km and 1km resolution respectively. This presentation describes briefly the framework and the major components of GCASv3. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions and CH4 emissions inferred by GCASv3 at different scales are presented and discussed.