PurposeThis study develops a macroeconomic model with two distinct agent types: rentiers and entrepreneurs, where only the latter invest in capital. We explore how this heterogeneity affects macroeconomic stability and policy feasibility.Design/methodology/approachThe model features a short-run static setup with heterogeneity embedded in the IS curve (goods market equilibrium). The main short-run tool is comparative statics. In the medium run, only the debt-to-GDP ratio evolves, while in the long run both agent shares and debt dynamics vary. We conduct dynamic analysis using a continuous-time differential equation system, assessing equilibrium and stability via classical dynamic systems theory. Numerical simulations use the Runge-Kutta method.FindingsIn the short run, a higher share of rentiers reduces the utilization rate, with real interest rates amplifying this effect. In the medium run, the debt-capital ratio follows a motion equation with agent shares exogenous. In the long run, agent shares evolve through an evolutionary game dynamic responding to return differentials between capital and government bonds. The interior solution, with both groups coexisting, is a saddle-path or, without a jumping variable, a knife-edge solution.Originality/valueThis is among the first papers to explicitly model dynamic heterogeneity between rentiers and entrepreneurs in debt-financing and investment, underscoring its relevance to macroeconomic dynamics.

PurposeThis paper introduces a bibliometric analytical comparison between the two main institutionalist journals, the Journal of Economic Issues (JEI) and the Journal of Institutional Economics (JOIE). Its goal is to identify the type of institutional economics promoted by each journal and to compare them, focusing on establishing whether they are aligned with Original Institutional Economics (OIE).Design/methodology/approachThis paper relies on the bibliometric method of bag-of-words, operationalized through the biblioshiny interface of the bibliometrix package. The data for the journals – consisting of the articles published by them – were extracted from the Web of Science database.FindingsThe results suggest a specialization of the journals: while JEI promotes OIE, JOIE’s themes and most cited authors are associated with the New Institutional Economics (NIE).Originality/valueThe paper is original in conducting a bibliometric comparison between the two main institutionalist journals and in perceiving different approaches by them in regard to institutional economics.

Purpose Building on evidence of a stronger multiplier effect of social benefits during Brazil’s 2015–2016 crisis, and the relative stability of consigned credit to retirees compared to active workers, we propose a demand-driven theoretical model to formalize the observed higher transfer multiplier in recessions. Design/methodology/approach We develop a neo-Kaleckian theoretical framework to delve into the circumstances under which the multiplier effect is augmented during economic downturns. Our model incorporates two classes and household borrowing. Findings We find that the countercyclical nature of both credit supply and demand contributes to a more pronounced countercyclical multiplier effect (for both transfer and autonomous expenditure multiplier). Greater access to consigned credit strengthened credit’s countercyclical role, enhancing social transfers’ stabilization during crises. However, high household debt limits this effect. Originality/value In essence, our model formalizes the notion that social benefits, when combined with credit mechanisms, constitute a significant element in income stabilization during economic contractions. Nevertheless, elevated household debt constrains this impact.

Empirical studies suggest that credit constraints prevent the development of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs). This study contributes to the analysis by exploring whether higher regional financial development affects the creation and growth of MSEs in Peru. Based on four cross-sectional databases, mainly the 2018 National Household Survey on Living Conditions and Poverty, this paper finds that there is a positive impact on entrepreneur profits; however, the effect is negative on the likelihood of running a business. Interactions between informality and financial frictions may explain this result. Informal financing emerges as an alternative in this context. This study addresses endogeneity issues by using the number of commercial bank branches per 1,000 inhabitants in 1995 as an instrument of the degree of regional financial development in 2018.

We study the short term effects of an experiment which transitioned conditional cash transfer beneficiaries from receiving benefits in cash at temporary payment modules to receiving benefits through account deposits on women’s status, work and financial inclusion. The experiment was implemented in the context of the Mexican Prospera program in 150 communities in the state of Hidalgo. Our results suggest an immediate and important positive impact of the transition to deposits on women’s control of resources in the household.

We develop the first climate risk Stress Test for the Peruvian financial system following a topdown approach. Focusing on the microeconomic channel, we evaluate how heavy rainfall and droughts, under a scenario of pure physical risk, will marginally affect the probability of default (PD) of borrowers by 2050. Using information from the Credit Registry, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and CMIP6 precipitation projections (37 modeling groups), we calibrate the marginal impacts differentiating by economic sector and geographical location. We find that, on average, by December 2050, the probability of default of the Peruvian financial system would increase by 4.9% with respect to December 2020. By geographic area, borrowers located on the northern coast (Piura, Lambayeque) and the southern highlands (Ayacucho, Cusco) would be negatively affected by heavy rainfall, while the rainforest (Madre de Dios, Ucayali) would be negatively affected by droughts. Moreover, the economic sectors affected by heavy rainfall or droughts would be agriculture, commerce, and transportation & communications.

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables, taking advantage of available information on the volume of Google searches. In order to quantify the behavioral variables, we implement a Python code using the Pytrends 4.9.2 library.Design/methodology/approachIn our study, we assert that models relying solely on economic variables, such as GDP growth, mortgage interest rates and inflation, may lack precision compared to those that integrate behavioral indicators. Recognizing the importance of behavioral insights, we incorporate Google Trends data as a key behavioral indicator, aiming to enhance our understanding of market dynamics by capturing online interest in Greek real estate through searches related to house prices, sales and related topics. To quantify our behavioral indicators, we utilize a Python code leveraging Pytrends, enabling us to extract relevant queries for global and local searches. We employ the EGARCH(1,1) model on the Greek house price index, testing several macroeconomic variables alongside our Google Trends indexes to explain housing returns.FindingsOur findings show that in some cases the relationship between economic variables, such as inflation and mortgage rates, and house prices is not always consistent with the theory because we should highlight the special conditions of the examined country. The country of our sample, Greece, presents the special case of a country with severe sovereign debt issues, which at the same time has the privilege to have a strong currency and the support and the obligations of being an EU/EMU member.Practical implicationsThe results suggest that Google Trends can be a valuable tool for academics and practitioners in order to understand what drives house prices. However, further research should be carried out on this topic, for example, causality relationships, to gain deeper insight into the possibilities and limitations of using such tools in analyzing housing market trends.Originality/valueThis is the first paper, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the benefits of Google Trends in studying the Greek house market.

PurposeThis study aims to analyze and compare the relationship between international trade in global value chains (GVC) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Brazil and China from 2000 to 2016.Design/methodology/approachThe input-output method apply to multiregional tables from Eora-26 to decompose the GHG emissions of the Brazilian and Chinese productive structure.FindingsThe data reveals that Chinese production and consumption emissions are associated with power generation and energy-intensive industries, a significant concern among national and international policymakers. For Brazil, the largest territorial emissions captured by the metrics come from services and traditional industry, which reveals room for improving energy efficiency. The analysis sought to emphasize how the productive structure and dynamics of international trade have repercussions on the environmental dimension, to promote arguments that guide the execution of a more sustainable, productive and commercial development strategy and offer inputs to advance discussions on the attribution of climate responsibility.Research limitations/implicationsThe metrics did not capture emissions related to land use and deforestation, which are representative of Brazilian emissions.Originality/valueComparative analysis of emissions embodied in traditional sectoral trade flows and GVC, on backward and forward sides, for developing countries with the main economic regions of the world.

PurposeThis study addresses the COVID-19 infection and its relationship with the city’s constructive intensity, commuting time to work and labor market dynamics during the lockdown period.Design/methodology/approachMicrodata from formal workers in Recife was used to adjust a probability model for disease contraction.FindingsThe authors' results indicate that greater distance to employment increases the probability of infection. The same applies to constructive intensity, suggesting that residences in denser areas, such as apartments in buildings, condominiums and informal settlements, elevate the chances of contracting the disease. It is also observed that formal workers with completed higher education have lower infection risks, while healthcare professionals on the frontlines of combating the disease face higher risks than others. The lockdown effectively reduced contagion by limiting people’s mobility during the specified period.Research limitations/implicationsThe research shows important causal relationships, making it possible to think about public policies for the health of individuals both when commuting to work and in living conditions, aiming to control contagion by COVID-19.Practical implicationsThe lockdown effectively reduced contagion by limiting people’s mobility during the specified period.Social implicationsIt is also observed that formal workers with completed higher education have lower infection risks, while healthcare professionals on the frontlines of combating the disease face higher risks than others.Originality/valueThe authors identified positive and significant relationships between these urban characteristics and increased contagion, controlling for neighborhood, individual characteristics, comorbidities, occupations and economic activities.