While refugee inflows into Germany have typically been relatively moderate in recent decades, specific exogenous political events such as the Yugoslav civil war in the early 1990s, the intensifying of the Syrian civil war around 2015, and the war in Ukraine since 2022, have generated substantial spikes in refugee arrivals, affecting the receiving society in multiple ways. This study examines the possible association between the large inflows of refugees into German society during the Syrian civil war period and the development of residents’ life satisfaction in Germany. While several studies have addressed the integration of this exceptionally large number of refugees into the German labor market and society, less attention has been paid to the potential impact of recent refugee arrivals on the subjective well-being (SWB) of the resident population, including native Germans and first- and second-generation immigrants. Whereas the literature reports neutral or positive associations between labor migration and residents’ or natives’ life satisfaction, less is known about the association between refugee inflows and residents’ life satisfaction. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) enriched with official regional information and data from immigration statistics regarding refugee inflows into Germany, we analyze the association between refugee inflows and residents’ life satisfaction while controlling for established variables associated with life satisfaction. In contrast to political debates, our results demonstrate a significant positive association between residents’ life satisfaction and periods of increased refugee inflows since 2012. Even during the peak years of refugee inflows in 2015 and 2016, we observe increases in residents’ life satisfaction both overall and across specific subgroups. However, as the observed increases are neither linear nor continuous, and vary across time within residential subgroups, we favor an explorative framework and do not claim to identify causal effects.

The acceptance of same-sex relationships and the diffusion of associated behaviours reflect pivotal developments within the broader ‘intimacy revolution’, aligning with Inglehart’s Silent Revolution and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theories. Drawing on a 2023 representative sample survey of 2600 Northern Italian university students aged 19–21, this study shows notably higher levels of engagement in same-sex behaviours and of supportive attitudes towards homosexuality compared to previous generations. It further shows that the pace of diffusion of SDT-related changes—observed in other sexual and reproductive behaviours—shapes the prevalence of these phenomena. Multivariate logistic regression analyses identify sex at birth, political orientation, and secularization as key individual-level predictors of attitudes and behaviours. Results situate Italy within a comparative framework, revealing both convergence with and divergence from patterns in other high-income countries. In the concluding section, we discuss the validity of the hypotheses previously formulated, on the basis of the empirical results.

While many studies investigate the effects of parental separation on children, whether in terms of short-term adjustment or long-term effects, the tendency is to examine each outcome in isolation, thus overlooking any interdependencies between them. In this paper, we focus on the impact of parental separation on two main aspects defining the transition to adulthood: attainment of economic independence and the formation of one’s own household. Specifically, we examine in a comprehensive way whether young Italians whose parents separated during childhood or youth follow different trajectories compared to those whose parents remained together. Using data from two cross-sectional rounds of the “Families and Social Subjects” survey conducted in 2009 and 2016, we implement a sequence analysis multistate model procedure. Our results suggest that children of non-intact families follow particular trajectories, especially with respect to the formation of their own household, where cohabitation is favored.

This study utilizes prospective data from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS) panel to explore two research questions. First, can distinct trajectories of fertility expectations be identified among Dutch women and men in reproductive age (18 to 45/50) who do not have children? Second, do these trajectories differ in terms of self-reported societal pessimism at the start of that trajectory? We employed joint latent class analysis with Latent GOLD which allowed us to model the trajectories of fertility expectations while accounting for the fact that some of the respondents made the transition to parenthood during observation. The trajectories were estimated from entry into the panel until dropout, the end of the observation period (2022, or until reaching age 45 for women and 50 for men), or until the participant became a parent. For both women (n = 1,260) and men (n = 1,110), three similar classes emerged: 'committed to parenthood' (the largest class), 'uncertain' (24% of women and 22% of men), and 'early commitment to no expectation' (13.3% for women and 9.4% for men). In addition, a fourth class—'later arrivals to expectation of parenthood'—was identified among men. Bias-adjusted comparisons revealed significant differences only among women: those committed to parenthood exhibited the lowest levels of societal pessimism, while the 'uncertain' group reported the highest. These differences persisted even after adjusting for relevant control variables at the time when societal pessimism was captured, including depression levels, income satisfaction, partnership status, and education.

The impact of climate change is being felt worldwide, with Europe experiencing the fastest rate of warming among all continents. Beyond socioeconomic consequences, climate change can potentially affect demographic outcomes, including fertility, in terms of both reproductive health and fertility behavior. However, to date, there is limited evidence on the relationship between climate change and fertility. With this paper, we intend to (1) expand the theoretical discussion on the role of uncertainty in childbearing decisions by moving beyond the common focus on economic uncertainty to explicitly consider the role of environmental uncertainty; (2) broaden the scholarly understanding of the relationship between climate change and fertility, which has mainly focused on objective measures of climate change, by investigating the role of climate change concerns; and (3) offer the first empirical evidence on the association between climate change concerns and fertility intentions for Italy using the 2016 Household Multipurpose Survey “Family and Social Subjects” (FSS) (N = 4408). Our results provide initial indications that environmental uncertainty may be linked to lower fertility intentions. Individuals who perceive climate change as a major issue or the biggest problem of the future tend to be less likely to report an intention to have a child. This pattern appears consistent across parity groups, and the findings remained stable net of sociodemographic characteristics and individuals’ positioning on the conservative–liberal spectrum. Overall, these findings contribute to the discussion on how uncertainties and pessimism may shape childbearing intentions.

One pivotal dimension in differentiating migrants is the motivation driving their decision to migrate. This factor plays a crucial role not only in shaping immediate labour market outcomes upon arrival but also in influencing outcomes over an extended period. Focusing on three distinct categories of migrants—categorised by self-reported reasons for migration (economic/labour, family/reunification, and humanitarian/forced migrants)—this paper provides new evidence on the links between the reason for migration and migrant labour market integration in the Italian context. The analysis explores three key labour market outcomes: the timing of the transition to the first job in Italy, the job quality of the first occupation (if any), and occupational mobility based on the length of stay in Italy. Multivariate regression models (including also Hazard and Heckman selection modelling) applied to individual-level data from the Istat survey 'Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens' (2011–12) identify consistent findings with existing literature, such as lower labour market participation among non-economic migrants and persisting employment gaps over time by motivation. However, results also reveal some peculiarities of the Italian case. While economic/labour migrant women follow the trade-off between high employment rates and low job quality that characterizes the Italian case, family and humanitarian/forced migrants face higher unemployment penalties. Nevertheless, once they enter the labour market, they often experience better job quality compared to economic migrants. Additionally, humanitarian migrant men experience lower chance of upward occupational mobility compared to economic/labour migrants in the first years after migration, but they also show a subsequent convergence that compensates for this disadvantage, although this only becomes apparent a decade after their arrival in Italy.

When should you claim a pension (such as social security) in the US? Much current advice focuses on the increase in the annual pension benefit as individuals delay claiming a pension, an increase due to the actuarial fairness of the system. However, individuals face two risks: whether they live to the planned claiming age, and how long they live after they claim. By isolating and measuring these two separate demographic risks, we quantify and describe the effect of demographic uncertainty in ages at death on claiming decisions, without the complexities of additional factors. We show that for both individuals and couples, the coefficient of variation of the (combined) lifetime benefit, calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation to the average, increases as individuals/couples delay claiming, indicating a rising risk relative to the benefit. Using a simple utility analysis that only considers lifetime pension benefits, we find a conditional optimal portfolio under different risk aversion levels, suggesting that individuals and couples should consider both average benefit and risk when deciding on a claiming age, as with other investment decisions. This focused approach highlights the important role of lifespan uncertainty in Social Security claiming decisions. We illustrate the flexibility and generality of our approach by applying it to income-based subgroups and deriving analytical solutions under the Gompertz mortality model, though the framework readily extends to other subgroup definitions and mortality assumptions. Our approach highlights one essential component in making a decision, and can be used in conjunction with factors such as wealth and consumption to make a more comprehensive analysis.

The transition to parenthood is a pivotal life course event that impacts well-being, relationship quality and the distribution of housework and paid work. In Germany, during the transition to first-time parenthood, women often reduce their involvement in paid work and take on a larger share of housework, leading to a more gendered division of labor. This shift could influence perceptions of fairness in the division of labor inducing both men and women to perceive the division as being more fair to themselves or more fair to their partner. Using data from the German Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam) and fixed effects models, we examine how women’s and men’s perception of fairness of the division of labor varies around first childbirth conceptualizing different phases spanning from 5 years before until 5 years after the first childbirth. Relative to baseline, mothers (-to-be) reported a fairer division of labor (less under-benefitting) from around conception to right after childbirth. Yet, already from 6 months after childbirth mothers’ perception of fairness becomes less fair to them again and the perception of under-benefitting continues as the child ages. For fathers-to-be, perceptions of fairness did not vary substantially around childbirth. We further found that neither the change in the division of housework, nor in the division of paid work, explained changes in fairness perceptions during the transition to parenthood.

A growing body of fertility research focuses on uncertainty as a key contributor to fertility decision making and behaviors. In this paper, we identify and describe multiple components of uncertainty in fertility goals that, when analyzed together and in relation to macro-level trends, provide critical insight into fertility dynamics. Drawing from multiple streams of research on fertility goals and behaviors, we focus on (i) goal uncertainty, (ii) realization uncertainty, and (iii) intensity of goals. We use data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) 2002–2019 to estimate trends and patterns of these three dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals, with a focus on variation across the life course and inequality by education and income. We link uncertainty in fertility goals with the quantum and timing of fertility intentions among U.S. women. The results show that realization uncertainty is pervasive, with up to 50% of women who intend children being uncertain whether they will actually follow through with those intentions, and intensity of intentions is low, with up to 25% of childless women who intend children saying that they would not be bothered if they did not have a child. Although goal uncertainty is overall stable across the study period, young and childless women show increasing realization uncertainty over time and hold their positive intentions less intensely. More socioeconomically advantaged women exhibit higher realization certainty and greater intensity of their goals. Women who are more certain of realizing their positive intentions and those who hold them more intensely report a higher number of additional intended children and a shorter time frame for future childbearing. We conclude by situating these findings in a broader climate of increasing uncertainty.

This paper presents an empirical analysis aimed at identifying chain migration patterns among university students from Sicily, Sardinia, and Apulia. Utilizing data from the national archive of university students enrolled in an Italian university from 2008 to 2017, we construct origin–destination matrixes and calculate residuals from a log-linear model to detect key student routes. Positive residuals between specific origin–destination pairs that persist over time can suggest significant attraction and potential chain migration. The results support a “large to large” and “small to small” city mobility model, particularly for Sicily and Sardinia. Students from Palermo, Catania, Messina, and Cagliari show strong connections with large cities such as Rome and Milan. Furthermore, results show historical links between Sardinia and Tuscany date back to the 1950s, and the enduring connections between Apulian students and universities in Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, and Lombardy have been evident since the 1970s. In Sicily, mobility patterns towards the Polytechnic of Turin began in the 1970s and persist today. These patterns underscore the influence of prior migrants on the mobility decisions of university students in Southern Italy, highlighting a potential chain migration effect.