Daily Dynamics Research Articles (Page 1)

The (in)distinguishability of Machiavellianism and psychopathy? Discovering the daily dynamics

This study aims to determine whether daily television audience dynamics exhibit statistically significant conditional variance dependence that is systematically overlooked in conventional ARIMA-based broadcasting forecasts and to assess the incremental empirical value of integrating ARIMA with GARCH modeling. Using 1,096 consecutive daily observations (2022–2024) of viewers for a nationally broadcast program, we implement a diagnostic-first framework that jointly evaluates conditional mean and variance processes. Stationarity is confirmed through the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF = −3.4693, p = 0.0088), and an MA(1) specification is selected for the conditional mean (AIC = 1302.76). Residual diagnostics reveal pronounced ARCH effects (ARCH-LM = 78.4602, p < 0.001), justifying second-moment modeling. Among competing variance specifications, GARCH(2,2) yields the lowest information criterion (AIC = 1060.321) and indicates near-unit volatility persistence (Σα + Σβ = 0.9856), evidencing durable intertemporal uncertainty transmission. Out-of-sample forecast evaluation demonstrates low relative error (MAPE ≈ 1.0%), supporting empirical robustness. Unlike prior ARIMA-centered broadcasting studies that prioritize point accuracy under homoscedastic assumptions, this integration explicitly models volatility clustering as an object of inference, aligning media analytics with established volatility frameworks without overstating cross-domain novelty. The findings show that incorporating conditional variance dynamics provides measurable gains in risk-sensitive forecasting, offering a replicable approach for advertising allocation and scheduling decisions in competitive media environments.

This study examines the pedagogical design of the Regional Centres for Education and Training Professions (RCETP), focusing on three training dimensions: functional knowledge, professional competence, and reflective practice. In this study, particular attention is devoted to the reflective dimension because it provides an essential entry point for addressing conceptual and methodological challenges in pre-service teacher educational training. This research adopts a qualitative approach based on participatory observation of training sessions and activities within selected RCETP programs in different regional centres in Morocco. This method offers direct insight into the daily dynamics of teacher preparation and the ways reflective practice is woven into training processes. Drawing on a competency-based framework, the analysis explores how training modules encourage trainee teachers to develop reflective professional skills that move beyond routine classroom practice. These skills enable future teachers to examine their teaching critically, conduct interventional educational research, and design context-sensitive pedagogical materials and resources. Findings indicate that integrating the reflective dimension within training modules strengthens the relationship between theoretical knowledge and practical application. It fosters critical thinking, professional autonomy, and the ability to generate innovative solutions to classroom challenges. The study concludes that prioritizing reflective practice enhances the holistic development of teacher professionalism and supports the continuous improvement of pre-service teacher education in Morocco.

ABSTRACT Quantifying river runoff is essential for water resource planning, flood control, and ecological protection globally. However, in the high-mountain Third Pole (TP) region, with extensive cryosphere coverage and harsh climate, runoff observations are extremely scarce, especially for transboundary rivers. Complex runoff processes, strongly influenced by snow and glacier melt, challenge hydrological modeling. Currently, long-term, high-resolution runoff datasets are still lacking in TP. Here, we employ an observation-constrained physically based cryosphere-hydrological model to simulate daily runoff during 1981‒2020 over seven transboundary TP rivers. This model is calibrated and validated with daily runoff observations near seven basin outlets, as well as available daily observations from sub-basins and hourly observations. Results show that the model can effectively reproduce the daily streamflow dynamics during both calibration and validation periods in seven TP basins, with Kling-Gupta-Efficiency, Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency and correlation coefficients all exceeding 0.67, 0.63 and 0.82, respectively, and absolute-percentage bias within 15.2%. Additionally, validations at sub-basins and hourly-scale validations yield satisfactory results. Furthermore, the snow and glacier modules are validated using reliable remote-sensing-derived data, showing good consistency. Consequently, we generate a long-term 3-km, daily gridded runoff dataset and streamflow records for 11 TP cross-sections, which provide essential support for regional sustainable development and ecological conservation.

This study investigates whether carbon trading improves air quality by using high-frequency daily data from China’s seven pilot carbon markets and real-time air pollution readings from 206 surrounding monitoring stations. We construct alternative indicators of carbon market liquidity and assess their effects on the Air Quality Index (AQI) using a fixed effects model. The findings show that poor liquidity—reflected by higher illiquidity ratios—is significantly associated with higher AQI values, suggesting that illiquid markets weaken incentives for carbon emission reductions and air quality benefits. Spatial heterogeneity suggests that pilot carbon markets with more efficient allocation generate greater air quality benefits. Temporal heterogeneity indicates that the effect is most pronounced in summer, moderate in winter and spring, and weakest in autumn. Furthermore, the observed improvement in air quality is primarily attributable to reductions in PM2.5. This study offers new evidence on the short-term environmental impacts of carbon trading and provide actionable insights for improving market design and regional policy alignment.

BackgroundChronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) affects ≈20% of children after major surgery, and the condition is associated with functional disability and ill-health. Psychological flexibility (PF) and parental factors have been shown to predict CPSP in youth following spinal fusion surgery. However, the daily dynamics of these processes throughout post-surgical recovery remain unknown. This study aimed at exploring how PF fluctuates in everyday life for youths undergoing spinal fusion surgery, and to investigate the associations between parental responses and adolescent PF.MethodsAdolescents with Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS), aged 12–18 years, undergoing spinal fusion surgery at four hospitals in Belgium, and their parents, completed diaries, measuring adolescent PF and parental responses (including instructions to avoid or engage in activities, parental protective behavior, and parental pain catastrophizing) for 7 days, at five phases: before surgery (T0), at 3 (T1) and 6 weeks (T2), and 6 (T3) and 12 (T4) months, post-surgery. A single-case approach with aggregated results was used, including Tau-U calculations and cross-lagged correlations.ResultsIn total, data from 47 adolescents and seven parents were analyzed. Substantial within- and between-person variability characterized the patterns of adolescent PF. Cross-lagged correlations showed bidirectional relationships, demonstrating that parental responses predicted adolescent PF, and that adolescent PF, similarly, predicted parental responses.DiscussionThe results reveal the complex dynamics of PF among adolescents following surgery, and that parent-adolescent patterns after surgery may vary across both individuals and time. These findings also emphasize the need for idiographic pain research and individual-level assessments as well as person-centered treatments in clinical practice.

Mothers and children interact through behaviors and mutual physiological signals. Recent research has suggested that physiological interactions are sensitive biomarkers for parenting challenges such as childcare stress. Most studies have focused on short-term, activity-based interactions. However, few studies have examined longer timescale data, such as interactions containing circadian rhythms, which are closely associated with stress. This study aimed to explore the link between childcare stress and mother-child autonomic nervous system activities in daily interactions using 24-hour at-home data. Cross-recurrence plots were used to quantify interactive patterns to reflect the rich nonlinear dynamics of autonomic nervous system signals and the complex interplay between mothers and children. The relationships between quantified low-dimensional cross-recurrence plot representations and parenting stress were evaluated through multiple regression analysis. The cross-recurrence plots effectively quantified complex, nonlinear, day-to-night interactions of mother-child autonomous nervous system activities and significantly predicted maternal parenting stress, offering novel insights into daily parental stress dynamics beyond recurrence plots that merely quantify the activities from individual systems.

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for monitoring population-level illicit drug use. Standard methods rely on 24-hour composite samples collected from treatment plant influent. While suitable for assessing long-term consumption patterns, composite samples obscure diurnal information on daily load dynamics - valuable for understanding substance sources and normalization strategies. Currently, the required, high manual effort limits the feasibility of diurnal monitoring applications. In this study, we deployed a transportable, automated liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry system (MS2Field) at the influent of the wastewater treatment plant in Zurich, Switzerland (serving 471,000 people). Over an eight-week period from July to September 2023 - including school holidays and two major public events - samples were analyzed every 36 min (1909 total). Loads of five exogenous population biomarkers, six common illicit drug markers, and the cocaine adulterant levamisole were quantified. In parallel, hourly mobile phone data were used to estimate de facto population size and demographic composition in the catchment. Automated analysis enabled the detection of consistent, weekday-specific intraday patterns for individual substances. Population biomarkers exhibited distinct temporal profiles: paraxanthine remained stable during working hours, while candesartan declined even at peak population times - highlighting implications for normalization, particularly with day visitors. Mobile phone-based occupancy data aligned with general trends but diverged during large events, likely due to mobile toilet use, whereas chemical markers directly reflected the contributing population. During the special events, MDMA, ketamine, and amphetamine loads rose with distinct profiles - one event showing a gradual overnight rise, the other a morning peak. Daily MDMA loads were 20-fold higher during one event than typical weekends. Ketamine showed irregular spikes, possibly due to a smaller user base, rapid excretion, or direct input. Levamisole loads rose on weekends and during events, mirroring benzoylecgonine, indicating continued presence as harmful cocaine adulterant. Automated analysis reveals short-term intraday trends, providing additional insights into the sources of chemical marker loads - such as consumption, excretion, and contributions from transient populations - that are typically averaged out in standard 24-hour composite samples.

This study delineates the baseflow processes in the Ganjiang River Basin using daily streamflow data from 1980 to 2019, and analyzes the variations in baseflow depth and the Baseflow Index (BFI) over the past 40 years. The trends, abrupt changes, and persistence of these parameters were examined. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to baseflow variations were identified using the elasticity coefficient method. The results indicate that the baseflow processes separated by the three-digital filter method align well with the actual daily baseflow dynamics in the Ganjiang River Basin. Over the past four decades, both baseflow depth and BFI exhibited an insignificantly increasing trend with persistence. The baseflow depth is unevenly distributed within the year, predominantly in spring and summer, while BFI is higher in autumn and winter. The years of abrupt change for baseflow depth and BFI differ, with the former occurring earlier than the latter. Compared to the period of 1980-1991, human activities had a greater impact on baseflow depth during 1992-2019, while the influence of climate factors decreased. The average annual baseflow depth increased by 65.31 mm from 1992 to 2019 compared to the period of 1980-1991, with climate change being the primary contributing factor, accounting for 65.14% of the increase. Among climate factors, precipitation was the main contributor. Human activities contributed to a baseflow depth change of 22.77 mm, accounting for 34.86% of the total increase.

Background: Symptom monitoring after heart failure (HF) hospitalization is a central aspect of patient education. However, appraising symptoms can be difficult for persons with HF (PWHFs), and studies suggest family care partners (CPs) play a key supportive role. The purpose of this study is to examine dyadic HF symptom appraisal dynamics in PWHF-CP dyads during hospital-to-home transitions. Methods: We conducted a daily diary study of dyadic symptom appraisal in which PWHFs and CPs were enrolled during a HF hospitalization. Over 5 weeks, both completed daily assessments of the PWHF’s symptoms (HF Somatic Perception Scale, PROMIS Fatigue 4a). Each dyad’s appraisal dynamics were quantified using a set of N of 1 dyadic autoregressive time series models examining total symptoms, hallmark symptoms (dyspnea, edema) and nonspecific symptoms (early/subtle cluster, fatigue). Models were examined for within-dyad dynamics (within-dyad associations on the same day or on a 1-day lag). Patterns in significant dynamics across dyads were narratively described. Results: This analysis includes n=14 cohabitating dyads, all partnered. On average, PWHFs and CPs were 69.6±5.4 and 67.4±8.0 years of age. The sample was relatively gender balanced (43% of PWHFs and 64% of CPs identified as female), and primarily identified as non-Hispanic (86% of PWHFs, 93% of CPs) and White (93% of PWHFs, 86% of CPs). Most PWHFs had non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (64%) and were NYHA Class III/IV (86%), with 57% HFrEF (mean EF 37%±17%). Symptom appraisals were highly variable within and across dyads (Fig 1). Most (n=11, 79%) had significant dyadic dynamics, but dynamics across dyads varied by symptom type and time structure (Fig 2). Conclusions: The types of symptoms that HF care dyads are able to appraise together and the time structure of appraisals are variable during care transitions. Precision approaches tailored to individual dyads are needed to optimize inclusion of CPs in symptom monitoring interventions.

ABSTRACT The quantity and timing of prey delivery affect the development of altricial young, can induce trade-offs in parental behavior, and ultimately influence fitness of the young. We investigated the dynamics of prey deliveries in a population of Swainson’s Hawks (Buteo swainsoni) in northern California to better understand its temporal component. We installed 12 motion-triggered cameras in nests between 2013 and 2018, and documented 466 unique prey deliveries. Of those, 455 prey items were identifiable to at least class. Mammals made up the majority of prey in terms of number of deliveries (88.2%) and estimated biomass delivered to the nest (97.1%). Of those, pocket gophers (Thomomys spp.) and voles (Microtus spp.) together made up almost half of the deliveries and biomass. Most prey was delivered to the nest in midday (i.e., 1000–1459 H), suggesting these are important foraging hours for this population. However, afternoon air temperatures in the study area can be high and may require that nestlings be shaded, setting up a potential trade-off between foraging and protecting the nestlings’ thermal homeostasis. Our study provides initial insight into the daily temporal dynamics of prey delivery for one of the latest-breeding raptors in North America.

A wide variety of complex systems are characterized by interactions of different types involving varying numbers of units. Multiplex hypergraphs serve as a tool to describe such structures, capturing distinct types of higher-order interactions among a collection of units. In this work, we introduce a comprehensive set of measures to describe structural connectivity patterns in multiplex hypergraphs, considering scales from node and hyperedge levels to the system’s mesoscale. We validate our measures with three real-world datasets: scientific co-authorship in physics, movie collaborations, and high school interactions. This validation reveals new collaboration patterns, identifies trends within and across movie subfields, and provides insights into daily interaction dynamics. Our framework aims to offer a more nuanced characterization of real-world systems marked by both multiplex and higher-order interactions.

We have experimentally studied the influence of the local ionosphere, namely the ionospheric Alfvén resonator (IAR) and the lower ionospheric resonator at altitudes 80–300 km (sub-IAR) on the amplitude and polarization of the first Schumann resonance. The study is based on spectral analysis of data from simultaneous monitoring of ULF magnetic noise components at a meridional chain of stations: high-latitude stations Barentsburg and Lovozero, mid-latitude observatory NNGU NIRFI (NL, Nizhny Novgorod Region), a low-latitude station in Israel. We have also used monitoring data from the Borok and Crete observatories. At the stations in dark conditions, significant variations were found in the spectrum of the polarization parameter ε at the frequency of the first Schumann resonance (SR). Moreover, these variations had different character at different observatories. Analysis of the daily dynamics of the parameter ε has shown that these variations are associated with the influence of local sub-IAR having different optical thickness and quality factor at these observatories. The influence of sub-IAR on polarization in the SR band was found to depend on the ratio of the boundary frequency fb (the frequency that separates the negative and positive polarization of ULF magnetic noise) to the frequency of the first SR. The IAR influence on the polarization and amplitude of magnetic fields in the frequency band of the first Schumann resonance was discovered only at the NL and Lovozero stations: a high-quality Alfvén resonator in the ionosphere above the NL station could cause the SR frequency band to change and its central frequency to shift. Analysis of low-frequency data from the observatories separated by distances of 400 km has revealed that the influence of local ionospheric resonators can lead to a difference in the amplitude characteristics of the first SR even at such distances. It has also been shown that the influence of the IAR and sub-IAR resonators on the azimuthal angle of the magnetic field vector in the frequency band of the first SR is less noticeable and can generate variations in this parameter by 10°–20°. Numerical calculations performed for the spherical waveguide model made it possible to adequately interpret the features of the daily dynamics of the parameter ε in the frequency range of the first SR.

Understanding the dynamics of plankton in Kijing Taiwanese (Anodonta woodiana, Lea) cultivation is crucial for optimizing growth performance. This study aims to investigate the influence of stocking density and cultivation methods on the daily population dynamics of plankton in Kijing Taiwanese aquaculture. The experimental study tested different stocking densities in cultivation ponds, namely 5, 10, and 15 ind/m2. Descriptive analysis was employed to interpret the data obtained. The results indicate that Kijing Taiwanese absorb approximately 40 liters/day of water with particle sizes ranging from 0.1 to 5.0 µm, achieving 100% and 99.5% filtration for particles > 4.0 µm and organic matter, respectively. Various class of plankton were identified in the cultivation ponds, including Bacillariophyceae, Chlorophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Dinophyceae, Euglenophyta, and Pyrophyta, with abundances ranging from 2000-68000 ind/cell. The study observed an increase in plankton abundance by approximately 700-2000 ind/cells daily. Water quality measurements revealed pH 7.4, temperature 29.4°C, TDS 92.3 mg/L, turbidity 9-45 NTU, BOD 1-3, DO 5 mg/L, and phosphate (PO4) 0.3 mg/L. This research concludes that there is an influence between kijing stocking density and plankton population density. The interactions that occur are significantly different, because there are significant differences. The higher the distribution density of kijing, the lower the plankton population in the cultivation pond. Further research is recommended to explore the correlation between the abundance of specific plankton types and the growth of Kijing Taiwanese, considering nutrient elements.

Perspective taking is encouraged by organizations as a form of supporting coworkers. Yet, its impact on employees' and coworkers' well-being is not well understood. We, therefore, take a dyadic approach to understand the daily dynamics of employees' perspective taking, its benefits for coworkers, and its costs for employees themselves. Specifically, we draw from self-regulation theory to examine the double-edged sword of perspective taking for one's own and one's coworker's well-being (reflected by subjective vitality). With regard to coworker well-being, we take an other-oriented resource lens and theorize that the focal employee's perspective taking increases the coworker's received support and well-being. With regard to the focal employee's well-being, we take a self-oriented resource lens and theorize that perspective taking increases the focal employee's self-regulatory resource depletion, which impairs their well-being. We examined our research model in a dyadic experience sampling study with three daily measurement occasions over 2 working weeks in a sample of 89 coworker dyads (178 individuals). Multilevel analyses showed that perspective taking had a positive indirect effect on coworker well-being via received coworker support, while it had a negative indirect effect on the focal employee's well-being via self-regulatory resource depletion. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

A partitioning of daily solar radiation using Hierarchical clustering on Principal Components method is proposed based on daily distribution of direct fraction in solar irradiance. This tool, similar to clearness index, is only based on diffuse and global solar radiation measurement, taking in account the local topology. The clustering method is applied on data collected in Reunion island (21◦S, 55◦E), a southern subtropical site. We obtain five daily solar radiations classes as results. The interpretations of the average time series signals for each class shows that daily dynamics curves are correlated with local meteorological phenomena. The season distribution of classes is correlated to the intensity of trade winds f low. Thus, it helps us to define an approach to predict the solar radiation for different time horizons and the energy potential of the day.

The Baikal seal (Pusa sibirica Gm.) lives in a freshwater, deep-water lake. Baikal, located almost in the center of the Asian continent, is a pagetogetic species of true seals. During the ice-free period, a significant part of the population uses the shore as a temporary habitat, mainly due to the need to complete the seasonal molt on an adequate substrate. The goal of the work was to establish the pattern of use by the Baikal seal of coastal rookeries located on the Malye Ushkany Islands in the summer-autumn period. The materials were collected in 2022 during August–November using stationary camera traps Seelock S308 Hyperlink (technical specifications on the website https://seelock.r) installed on each of the three small islands of the Ushkany Islands archipelago (two per island). The traps were installed by employees of the Transbaikal National Park (FSBI “Zapovednoye Podlemorye”). The traps operated in automatic mode (recording was carried out every 3–4 hours every day), and 4518 still images (volume 12.07 GB) were analyzed. In all still images, the number of Baikal seals lying on land (on the beach and on rocks lying near the coast) and swimming in the water was counted. Based on the data obtained, the dynamics of the number of animals in the rookery areas is shown. It has been established that the development of rookery sites on different islands occurs simultaneously (at the same or very close dates) on three islands. The number of animals in a rookery is determined by the physical parameters of the rookery areas (size, substrate, water level) and depends on the number of seals in wandering groups. No mass migrations of seals from one island to another have been recorded. A clear daily dynamics of the number of Baikal seals in the rookeries has not been established, and in different rookery areas it manifested itself differently (6 options were identified). In autumn, a greater dependence of the frequency of use of rookeries on hydrometeorological conditions, as well as on anthropogenic disturbance factors, was noted. In conditions of a reduction in the flow of tourists visiting one of the rookeries on the island. Long for recreational purposes, in autumn on two of the three islands the factor of disturbance from the point of view of its influence on the dynamics of visiting the Baikal seal rookeries is assessed as minimal.

Abstract Individuals diagnosed with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) remain functionally independent and able to complete instrumental activities of daily living while simultaneously experiencing subjective and objective decline in one or more areas of cognition. Loved ones of individuals with MCI are also impacted and spouses often serve as formal or informal caregivers. Relationships impacted by cognitive impairment experience widespread impacts among cognitive, behavioral, and affective factors within and between individuals. The present study took a novel approach to understanding longitudinal daily parallel patterns of depressive affect, relationship mutuality, sleep, stress, and behavioral problems associated with cognitive impairment. 27 dyads comprised of one spouse with diagnosed Mild Cognitive Impairment (M= 74.6 years, SD= 8.26, 10 female), and the other as a cognitively healthy caregiving spouse (M= 71.4 years, SD= 8.35, 18 female) completed individual nightly reports for two consecutive weeks. Exploratory multilevel modeling revealed significant and complex interactions among spouses’ depressive affect, stress, relationship mutuality, and behavioral problems. Results indicate co-occurring daily effects for depressive affect and stress as contagion effects, with mutuality serving as an important moderator. The impact of mutuality was also significant over and above its role in the interactions. Mutuality seems to act as a buffer for negative affect and stress contagion from one partner to the other across days and from one day to the next. These findings highlight the importance of healthy daily relationship dynamics in mitigating stress and depressive affect contagion among older adults impacted by MCI.

ObjectivePosttraumatic growth (PTG), and its negative reflection, posttraumatic depreciation (PTD), are two aspects of response to trauma. This study explores whether daily emotional dynamics (inertia and innovation) can translate into positive versus negative changes among people living with HIV (PLWH) in the form of long-term changes in PTG or PTD. MethodsThe study combined a classical longitudinal approach with two assessments of PTG and PTD within one year and a measurement burst diary design with three weekly electronic diaries. In total, 249 PLWH participated in this study, filling out an expanded version of the Posttraumatic Growth and Depreciation Inventory (PTGDI-X) and a survey of sociodemographic and clinical data. In addition, they assessed their positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA) at the end of each day in online diaries using a shortened version of the PANAS-X. ResultsAlthough we observed stable significant inertia and innovation of PA and NA across all bursts, these parameters of daily emotional dynamics were unrelated to the longitudinal changes in PTG and PTD. The same null results were also noted for the average levels of NA and PA. ConclusionsThe results indicated the relative stability of emotion regulation in PLWH over the course of one year and contributed to understanding its dynamic mechanisms in terms of trait-like characteristics. The null result of the relationship between the PTG and PTD change might suggest a weak role of emotion regulation in shaping these trajectories as well as a lack of validity of the PTG/PTD measures.

ABSTRACT Drawing on self-determination theory, this study focuses on the person- and occasion-specific components of the daily dynamics of employees’ global psychological need satisfaction at work. Predictors (job demands related to information and communication technologies, segmentation norms, and workload) and outcomes (perceived productivity, psychological detachment, work-family conflict, job satisfaction, and personal satisfaction) were also examined across both levels to better grasp the mechanisms underlying these short-term dynamics. A total of 129 French employees filled out questionnaire surveys at the end of each workday for five days (521 observations). Results from Dynamic Structural Equation Modeling (DSEM) showed clear associations between need satisfaction, the predictors, and the outcomes at the person-specific level. However, and although need satisfaction levels were found to fluctuate on a daily basis, they seemed immune to the effects of daily fluctuations in predictor levels, and unlikely to generate matching fluctuations in outcome levels. These results suggest strong homoeostatic processes protecting employees’ functioning against daily fluctuations, but that the accumulation of such fluctuations over the work week may jeopardize these processes.