Asian Development Bank Institute

Abstract Background: Schistosomiasis has long been endemic in South Cotabato. Fourteen barangays in Koronadal City and Tantangan, covering over 82,000 people at risk, had received more than a decade of mass drug administration with praziquantel when a focal prevalence survey was conducted in 2016. The survey aimed to update local prevalence estimates, document other helminth infections, and assess the Kato–Katz technique. National data since then have shown declining prevalence in many endemic areas, although persistent animal reservoirs continue to be reported. As the Department of Health pursues transmission interruption by 2025, reporting the 2016 findings remains important for assessing progress and guiding elimination strategies. Methods: Individuals aged 5-65 years from households selected through stratified cluster sampling were invited to submit stool specimens. Local medical technologists were recruited and trained to conduct parasitologic assessment using Kato-katz technique. Each specimen from the 4,387 samples (2,344 from Koronadal and 2,043 from Tantangan) was tested for the presence of Schistosoma japonicum , soil-transmitted helminths, and other intestinal parasite ova. The sensitivity of the field testing was determined through validation of the slides by reference microscopists of the College of Public Health/National Institutes of Health, University of the Philippines Manila. Results: No schistosomiasis cases were detected in Koronadal City. In Tantangan, nine cases were identified in four barangays, corresponding to a prevalence of 3.6 per 1,000 population (95% CI: 1.7–7.8 per 1,000). After adjustment for sampling weights and non-response, the combined prevalence for both municipalities was 0.098%. One barangay, New Lambunao (1.87%), exceeded the <1% near-elimination threshold. Eight infections were of light intensity and one was moderate; no heavy-intensity infections were detected. Soil-transmitted helminths were also identified, with Ascaris lumbricoides (7.29%) being most prevalent. Validation showed high specificity (>98%) and sensitivity of 88.9% for schistosomiasis. Conclusion: The 2016 focal survey demonstrated very low schistosomiasis prevalence in South Cotabato following long-term MDT, with most endemic barangays meeting the <1% near-elimination threshold. However, given the limitations of Kato–Katz in low-intensity settings and the potential influence of post-treatment timing on egg detection, updated focal surveys incorporating more sensitive diagnostic tools are recommended. Strengthened surveillance, integrated helminth control, and a One Health approach will be essential to verify transmission status and guide decisions on sustaining or modifying MDA as the country works toward its 2025 elimination goal.

ABSTRACT As their populations age, Japan, the United States, and many other countries face challenging economic prospects. Due to important intergenerational linkages, members of every generation will be affected. Saving may prove to be insufficient and old‐age support systems fiscally unsound. Here we assess the proportional reduction in consumption across all ages that would be required to attain long‐term sustainability. We use a simulation model together with the most extensive data ever compiled to analyze the connections between age structure and the economy. Our goal is to root our analysis in these rich empirical measures of age‐specific economic behavior which provide a straightforward interface with the population age distribution. This approach contrasts with more theoretical models incorporating feedbacks and endogenous behavior while requiring different kinds of assumptions. Sustainability requires both cross‐sectional aggregate balance each year and longitudinal balance for each birth cohort. Specifically, we ask: “Are the baseline age profiles of consumption, labor income, savings, and intergenerational transfers sustainable in a hypothetical demographic steady state that would result from fixed fertility and mortality rates? To what extent would the age profile of consumption have to be altered to achieve sustainability?” Sustainability is calculated for each country using conditions as of three dates: several decades ago (1984 Japan and 1990 US), 2019, and 2065. We find that the intergenerational economies in Japan and the US were close to sustainable at the earlier date, but became seriously unsustainable by 2019. An even greater shortfall would occur given expected fertility and mortality rates for 2065. We discuss reasons for the deterioration in sustainability—population aging, differences in economic behavior, and public policy. Given 2019 conditions long‐run sustainability in Japan would require a 15% reduction in consumption (relative to labor income with an underlying upward trajectory from expected productivity growth). With the projected fertility and mortality conditions of 2065, a 19% reduction would be required to achieve sustainability. For the US, the corresponding reductions would be 9% for 2019 and 12% for 2065 conditions.

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 shock on the Chinese economy through a multidimensional policy-modeling framework. The Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) employs macroeconomic indicators to examine how asymmetric infection dynamics propagate economic shocks across activity, labor, financial markets, investment flows, and aggregate output within strategic economic sectors during 2019–2021. The ECMCID-Simulator is constructed under the Omnia Mobilis assumption and interpreted through the Dynamic Imbalanced State framework. Key findings reveal pronounced heterogeneity in economic responses, with sharp contractions in contact-intensive activities alongside relative resilience in essential production systems. The ECMCID-Simulator conceptualizes pandemic-induced economic disruptions as dynamic economic waves rather than static shocks. The ECMCID-Simulator offers policy-relevant insights into the management of systemic economic risk and the design of targeted stabilization strategies under conditions of extreme uncertainty.

The objective of this study is to analyse the role of communication technology, such as smartphones, in influencing public service provision. The penetration of smartphones is low in rural India, particularly among frontline health workers, who are typically women. This study analyses the association between smartphone ownership, communication practices, and information-oriented service provision among frontline health workers, beneficiaries and supervisors during the COVID-19 lockdown in Chhattisgarh, India. It uses data from a phone survey conducted with 642 frontline workers and employs regression analysis to study the associations, adjusting for observable frontline worker and subdistrict characteristics. Qualitative data from interviews with 19 government officials support the importance of technology in communication during COVID-19. Owning a smartphone allows flexibility for frontline workers in communicating during the lockdown over phone calls or WhatsApp with their beneficiaries, supervisors and other frontline workers. Communications over smartphones did not crowd out in-person interactions, suggesting that the overall frequency of communication was higher during the lockdown than for those frontline workers without smartphones. Frontline workers with smartphones could provide counselling services, antenatal care and immunisation support at a significantly higher rate. To conclude, smartphone-based technology can complement the usual communication channels, providing a viable option if there are service disruptions.

This study explores the determinants of solar trolley adoption and its impact on farm and non-farm earnings using a cross-sectional dataset of 617 farm households from Punjab, Pakistan. We develop two models – a logit model and a Heckman two-stage model – to overcome potential endogeneity and selection bias. Interestingly, we find significant variations in solar energy utilization among farmers across the given scenarios – layman, efficient, and entrepreneurial – with those in the latter scenario achieving the shortest pay-off time of 1.72 years. Moreover, solar trolleys substantially enhance the productivity of intensively irrigated cereals, resulting in economic benefits of USD 193.80 and USD 134.90 per acre for rice and hybrid maize, respectively. Our analysis reveals that factors such as access to solar subsidy, solar information, smartphone ownership, livestock and tractor ownership, and groundwater table depth positively influence solar trolley adoption. The Heckman model demonstrates that access to solar trolley increases the likelihood of engaging in non-farm activities, with solar trolley ownership and access to solar subsidies contributing to non-farm income by 37.8% and 17.2%, respectively. After controlling for various characteristics at the farm, individual, and village levels, participation in self-help groups, access to skill development programs, proximity to towns, and paved roads were found to be factors that promote non-farm entrepreneurship in rural areas. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to promote agricultural solarization and enhance rural household livelihood options, food security, income, and resilience in wake of climate change. Agricultural policies focusing on agricultural solarization should provide the necessary amenities to facilitate entrepreneurship to achieve multiple sustainable development goals in rural and remote areas.

Eco-profile studies help in continuous assessment and monitoring of river basin functions; the planners, and decision-makers deploy study findings to address problems associated within river basins. In this paper, we reviewed the study covering the eco-profile based watershed and river basin management practices and the benefits of eco-profile in understanding and addressing water-related issues at the micro-level. The study uses a systematic literature review approach called the PRISMA framework (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) to collect and process the literature. Our study found that eco-profile based implementations improves the river basin functions and addresses the micro-level issues related to water rights and conflicts that are usually not addressed during water resources management. Through eco-profile study, the key ecological indicators at micro and macro scales can be identified that help to predict the continuous changes of biotic and abiotic conditions within the watershed and river basin regions. The present study discusses the advantage of eco-profile in the watershed, measures to comprehend river basin function, community role, and approach to solve the water rights and conflicts at the micro scale. The study also recommends the inclusion of eco-profile framework and eco-profile policy in integrated water resources management programs specific to river basin/watershed management activities.

Background To assist decision making on the introduction of rotavirus vaccine (RVV), pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and human papillomavirus vaccine (HPVV), cost-effectiveness and budget impact evaluations were undertaken in Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Methods A proportionate outcomes model was used to evaluate vaccine introduction in each country from a health systems perspective, using country-specific data supplemented with regional and global estimates. A 10-year vaccination program was modelled from 2021, with costs and outcomes (disability-adjusted life years; DALYs) summed over a life-time horizon and discounted at 3%. Vaccine dose costs were based on Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Revolving Fund prices, with lower priced products also explored. Findings Introduction of all three vaccines in all countries could prevent over 1,000 deaths over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts. The cost per DALY averted at PAHO Revolving Fund prices ranged from 43% - 73% of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in each country, and 15% - 58% for lower-priced vaccines. The budget impact ranged from 359% (Samoa) to 1,368% (Vanuatu) of the 2019 vaccine budgets, and 149% (Samoa) to 775% (Vanuatu) for lower-priced vaccines. Cost-effectiveness results were most sensitive to disease burden, discount rate, vaccine efficacy, and program costs. Interpretation Development partner-supported introduction of HPVV, PCV and RVV may represent good value for money in Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu, depending on willingness to pay thresholds, but will place considerable burden on immunisation budgets. Financial sustainability requires increases in immunisation budgets and negotiation of affordable vaccine prices. Funding Asian Development Bank.